Community Projection: Barry Zito

Here is hoping Grant and I are right and BP is full of BS.  

But hey, let's be optimistic!

ERA: 4.04
IP: 228
K: 187
BB: 79
HR: 26

Hi, I'm new.

What I believe is that he is UNLIKELY to have an ERA of 3.40 -- because I think he is unlikely to yield "only" 78 walks and 21 homers.  He should benefit from the switch to the seemingly-weaker NL, alhtough surprisingly he has a lower ERA against the AL than the NL during the months of interleague play.

I am a bit more optimistic now that we know that he gained ten pounds of leg muscle, that he strengthened and stretched his core and that he is looking at increasing his stride in order to add velocity and take pressure off his arm.  It appears to me that Barry has figured out what many of us and the more numbers-oriented observers have realized:  If he doesn't change something, he seems unlikely to make a long-term reversal of his downward trend of the past four seasons.  

He may also have looked at his very poor performance the past two Septembers and wondered if throwing the second-most pitches in the majors the past six seasons was indeed taking his toll and contributing to his decline.  He may have decided that at only 28 years old, he appeared to already be four years past his prime and that stretching out his motion and throwing more with his entire body might both improve and extend his career.

I don't expect Barry to put up an ERA of 3.40 or below.  But I wouldn't be totally shocked if he did so.  In theory, 2007 should be his best season under his new contract. If he DOESN'T put up a low ERA in 2007, how is he likely to justify the $126 million as he gets older?

ERA: 4.20
IP: 190
K: 140
BB: 75
HR: 20

The good news is I think the decline stops there and that's basically what we get for the next 7 years. Nothing like overpaying for mediocrity at the one position that you actually have young talent at... sigh.

Zito will go 18-8.

(I was serious about the second paragraph.)

Zito was briefly experimenting with a new delivery for a specific reason. He's searching for ways to reduce the increasing stress on his shoulder.

http://www.forums.mlb.com/n/mb/message.asp?webtag=ml-giants&msg=84293.1&ctx=0

ERA: 3.12
IP: 225
K: 185
BB: 82
HR: 19

and Zito is the Giants' first lefty Cy Young award winner and twenty game winner since Mike McCormick. Why the heck not?

ERA 3.64
IP 224.2
K 163
BB 87
HR 25

so ...

ERA 3.4 (Big up, Grant!)
IP 224.2 (can't see how that would change)
K 175
BB 82
HR 21

Although I reserve my right to complain later, I think sharksrog makes some good points (that's twice today, rog!). If Zito has improved his conditioning, and if he does realize that his pitch counts have gotten too high, and if he focuses on giving up fewer walks, he could do as well as some of our more optimistic posters have predicted. On the other hand, he could feel the pressure of the big contract (while changing his motion), suffer a Morris-like injury, and either end up with Morris-like numbers or, worse, E-like numbers.

My prediction attempts to take the middle ground in all of that, and assumes a missed start or two.
I would love to be proven wrong, though.

I used to set prices at Walmart.  

Anywways, here are my Zito #'s:

ERA: 3.89
IP: 192
K: 151
BB: 80
HR: 14

IP=221
ERA=3.55
K=162
BB=89
HR=22
W-L= 15-10
amount of time it'll take him to get matt cain baked=6 weeks (matt's a good southern boy)