Fleas
Each day without a transaction is a day closer to Pedro Feliz back on the team. Brian Sabean has been adamant about not giving Feliz a three-year deal, which, if you want to read between the lines, leaves open the possibility of a two-year deal.

It's been too long, old friend.
The new buzz is that Feliz is an average third baseman. See, you take his atrocious hitting (14 runs below the average hitter according to Baseball Prospectus) and combine it with his brilliant fielding (28 runs above the average fielder at third according to Mitchel Lichtman) to get an average player. Maybe even above-average. It seems counterintuitive, as we're used to the Pedro Feliz who doesn't even make the first page cut on a list of third basemen sorted by offensive contributions. But his defense really is outstanding, so maybe....
Let me just go on record: I don't care. I'm tired of watching Feliz hit. It's a pretty intellectually defunct position to take. Stats shouldn't be treated as the end of the debate, but they should be a part of the debate. Defensive stats might be less refined than offensive stats, but they've come a long way in the past decade.
But I don't care. If Feliz contributes two extra wins to the 2008 Giants over, oh, Sean Burroughs or Tom O'Malley, I don't care. That's probably the difference between 70 wins and 72 wins. Maybe 80 and 82 if a lot of things break right.
Two extra wins for a non-contender, or watching hundreds of stomach-turning at-bats for the eighth season in a row? The obvious retort is, "Well, just who is going to play third?" I don't care. Anyone else. Please.
Is this an ignorant position to take?
0 recs |
111 comments
Comments
Re: Fleas
Pedro Feliz should be our 3rd baseman next year, because without him, we have no reason to post cat pictures in gameday threads.
Not that one would NEED a reason...
by Gabafnerhagen on Dec 28, 2007 3:05 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
No its not
DO NOT WANT
by Andy from DC on Dec 28, 2007 3:10 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Fleas
Also, it's becoming a McCoven tradition to make fun of Fleas' at-bats. He's the Julia Allison to our Gawker, if you will. </obscure internet blog reference>
by Kitspool on Dec 28, 2007 3:12 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Fleas
Feliz can take them all with him. Feliz, Dave Roberts, Rich Aurilia, Ray Durham, and a copy of Rock Band on the Xbox 360 = more fun for them, more fun for us.
by Grant on Dec 28, 2007 3:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Fleas
by Kitspool on Dec 28, 2007 3:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Fleas
Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy
by hairball on Dec 28, 2007 4:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Best score?
by WalrusMan on Dec 28, 2007 8:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Fleas
by out machine on Dec 28, 2007 3:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Broken record
by UnderRadar on Dec 28, 2007 3:23 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Broken record
by Glasscock on Dec 28, 2007 6:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Broken record
Ambiguous Men in Tights
by Moggeee on Dec 31, 2007 2:01 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Fleas
by Goat on Dec 28, 2007 3:32 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Fleas
by leftymalo on Dec 28, 2007 3:43 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I myself...
by WalrusMan on Dec 28, 2007 8:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
CArney Lansford?
I guess I don't want to see Feliz back because it takes away another place where Kevin Frandsen might play regularly. When asked about Frandsen, Sabean has at least twice responded that he will get a chance to start at 3B. Notice he did not mention anything about 2B in those comments. Conclusion: Ray Durham is the starting 2B for 2008. Not that I particularly want Frandsen to be our third baseman, or that will be better there in 2008 than Feliz, but I want him to play somewhere.
by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 28, 2007 3:50 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: CArney Lansford?
Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy
by hairball on Dec 28, 2007 4:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: CArney Lansford?
by marklar on Dec 31, 2007 11:45 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Fleas
I was as big a Pedro basher as it gets, but mgl's stats don't lie. The Giants will be much worse without him than with him, maybe 3-4 games. Not to mention the fact that taking a bathroom break every three innings is much more pleasant than spending a year living with the fear every day that Sabes will trade 1/2 of Caincicum for Eric Chavez.
by billiejameshayes on Dec 28, 2007 3:51 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Fleas
Over the years, I have liked and supported Feliz more than almost all Giants fans, because as a paying customer I truly get off on spectacular fielding. I'm sure the Giants pitchers like solid "d" behind them. But I also surmise that Giants pitchers like getting some runs produced by the offense. So, please, no Feliz, unless we are looking at something like 2 years / $5m to be a "super sub."
You know, Pedro Feliz would be a hell of a utility guy, if only the Giants would pay him (and play him!) as such. Time is on the Giants side with this one, as the rest of MLB seems to be echoing the "DO NOT WANT" sentiment. The price tag for Feliz is low, and getting lower.
by Kid Fresh on Dec 28, 2007 3:52 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
For what it's worth
by MeSoKrabby on Dec 28, 2007 3:55 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: For what it's worth
by zenbitz on Dec 29, 2007 9:50 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: For what it's worth
by Lyle on Dec 29, 2007 11:03 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I saw Jesus kissing Santa Claus
Lyle, sometimes we're just too old to get our meaning across. Even when we lay down a bunt.
by Moggeee on Dec 31, 2007 2:06 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: I saw Jesus kissing Santa Claus
by Lyle on Jan 2, 2008 7:49 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: I saw Jesus kissing Santa Claus
by groug on Jan 2, 2008 12:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: For what it's worth
by slojoe on Dec 30, 2007 2:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
True Believers say
by Moggeee on Dec 31, 2007 2:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: True Believers say
by slojoe on Jan 2, 2008 4:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Fleas
by sam23 on Dec 28, 2007 4:14 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Fleas
I'd love Rolen, five years ago minus the bad back!! So suck it up Giants fans. Resign Pedro for another year (with an option) and maybe he'll surprise and hit .275!!!
by JERSEYGIANT on Dec 28, 2007 4:26 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
He may hit .275...
The only year in the majors where he hit .275 was 2004. That year he went .276/.305/.485. Last year he had an isolated OBP (don't know what the technical stat is for it) of .037. Even if he hit .275 next year he'd only have a OBP of around .310. With declining power, even with the addition of a bit more strike zone judgement, he's still a bad hitter. Yes he hit 20 HRs (22, 20, 22, 20), yes he drove in 80-90 RBIs (84, 81, 98, 72 so he didn't get it last year), but he still sucks with the bat. As a super sub he's a great player, can hit a bit against the lefties, and playes great defense at 1B/3B, ok defense at SS and LF.
Just looking up something too, the best year he had was 1999, where he only played half a season (102 OPS+). His next season he was totally average (100 OPS+). After that it's been a decline of 85, 79, and 81.
by WalrusMan on Dec 28, 2007 8:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
well..
If he signs some Rowand-level this-is-the-new-market-rate deal, I'm pissed. For real money, I want to be entertained. Otherwise, plug in some cheap chaff and sign another three Villalonas.
by wcw on Dec 28, 2007 4:31 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Hijack!
Mike (Rodeo, Ca): So referring to the Giants, any chance they move Lowry for a 1B or 3B? or even Roberts to the Braves for a Single A prospect
Keith Law: I've talked to a number of teams about Lowry - sounds like no one's very high on him at all. Teams are wary of his health and his K/BB ratio this year is terrifying.
by KCE on Dec 28, 2007 4:55 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Fleas
A.) Spend about $1 million for a supplemental rounder who might help us one day when we're good again or at least have trade value.
B.) Sign a moderately useful, but still irritating, third baseman who won't help us win anything meaningful next year.
by Dan from NM on Dec 28, 2007 5:06 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Fleas
Just a few names in the 37-45 range in recent years: David Wright, Huston Street, Joba Chamberlain, Tom Gorzelanny, Clay Buchholz, Mark Teahen, Jo Jo Reyes, Adam Jones, Gio Gonzalez, Jed Lowrie, Joey Votto, Reid Brignac. Yes, an equal number of picks in that range, if not more, will prove complete busts - so lets say the odds of getting someone really valuable with the #37 pick are around one in three. The choice, then, is this - another year or two of Feliz on a rebuilding team or a one in three chance of drafting one of those guys. Its no contest.
For this reason alone I just don't see how there can be any justification whatsoever for signing Feliz- whatever the number of years, whatever the salary, whatever the short-term alternative or lack thereof.
by FavoriteSpring on Dec 29, 2007 12:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Fleas
by BigO on Dec 28, 2007 5:59 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Fleas
It also leaves the door open for one of those shiny four or five year contracts!
by howtheyscored on Dec 28, 2007 6:05 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Fleas
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Dec 29, 2007 9:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Fleas
by Glasscock on Dec 28, 2007 6:23 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Fleas
by OmahaGiants on Dec 28, 2007 6:24 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Fleas
Barry Zito $14.5
Matt Cain $700,000
Tim Lincecum $400,000
Noah Lowry $2.25
Kevin Correia $400,000
Steve Kline $1.75
Jack Taschner $400,000
Randy Messenger $400,000
Vinnie Chulk $400,000
Brad Hennessey $400,000
Tyler Walker $750,000
Brain Wilson $400,000
Bengie Molina $6
Daniel Ortmeier $400,000
Ray Durham $7.5
Rich Aurilia $4.5
Omar Vizquel $5
Aaron Rowand $12
Dave Roberts $6.5
Randy Winn $8
Nate Schierholtz$400,000
Rajai Davis $400,000
Fred Lewis $400,000
Kevin Frandsen $400,000
Guillermo Rodriguez$400,000
Barry Bonds $10.8
Armando Benitez $1.6
Omar Vizquel $1
Mike Matheny $2
2008 Payroll Total
$89.95 million
A few of the $400,000 dollar salaries and the Barry Bonds deferred money might be a off a little but not by much.
The result means that we have little to spend as of now since our budget the past few years has been around $90 million.
by hollywoodlarry on Dec 29, 2007 1:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Fleas
by slojoe on Dec 30, 2007 3:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Walker's..
by WalrusMan on Dec 31, 2007 7:24 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Fleas
Lineup:
Roberts LF
Vizquel SS
Winn RF
Sexson 1B
Rowand CF
Molina C
Feliz 3B
Frandsen 2B
Bench:
Alfonzo C
Aurilia IF
Ortmeier 1B/OF
Davis OF
Lewis OF so Schierholtz doesn't rust on the bench
Minors:
Rodriguez C
Ishikawa 1B
Denker 2B
Velez 2B/OF
Schierholtz OF to play everyday
Bowker OF
Timpner OF
by giantsrainman on Dec 28, 2007 6:31 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Fleas
LineUp:
Suzuki CF
Vidro LF/DH
Beltre 3B
Bonds DH/LF
Ibanez 1B
Durham 2B
Johjima C
Balentien RF
Betancourt SS
Bench:
Burke C
Lopez IF
Bloomquist IF/OF
Morse OF
Reed OF
by giantsrainman on Dec 28, 2007 6:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Fleas
by NearestNorwich on Dec 28, 2007 8:00 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Fleas
by sharksrog on Dec 28, 2007 8:59 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
You got it right
I would rather watch a lineup of Ortmeir, Zoo Tiger, Porch Monkey, Charlemagne, and Napoleon Dynamite's uncle (who bears a striking resemblance to Tim Flannery) stink up the joint, than YOUR 2005 SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS - EPISODE IV
Feliz has had 2840 ABs in his career. All the while the image of his imbecilic hacks burned into the screens of new LCDs everywhere. And he has struck out 500 times. Exactly. And that most of us here have seen at least 800 of those strikeouts including the goddamn slow motion replays where Krukow and company use the telestrator to circle the fourth row of the upper deck where strike three actually ends up after bouncing off the dirt...and some idiot chimes in, "at least he didn't get cheated on his swings."
Really. I would rather watch a bum chosen at random from the right field portico hit in that spot than ever watch Feliz swing a bat again.
I mean, really. Can anybody in their right mind willfully want to see this buffoon continue to air condition PacBell Park nightly just like he has for the past 8 years? To the accompaniment of equally useless overpaid chump refugees from San Diego in filched laundry? Just wait and see. Klesko will be back. I wouldnt be surprised to see the return of other note worthies like Sweeney, Greene. Maybe Bochy can coax Sabaen into talking Melvin Nieve, Jody Reed, and Steve Finley to come out of retirement. Then we can listen to Donny and Marie's Greatest Hit during the 7th inning stretch which should be just enough provocation for even the most optimistic of souls to hurl themselves from the upper deck into the bullpen in a suicide dive bombing attack on Steve Kline.
No. If the Giants sign Fleas, I will hunt Sabaen down. And castrate him with a dull knife.
by E Ticket on Dec 28, 2007 10:37 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Strikeouts
A much bigger problem, to me, is that he gets into these long streaks where he tries to pull everything and ends up reaching for pitches on the low-outside corner, pulls them and rolls them weakly to SS. During the brief stretches when he goes with the pitch and tries to drive it up the middle or the RCF, he actually is a pretty darn good hitter.
Again, I wonder if Carney Lansford might be able to help him with this more than Joe Lefebvre, who I'm not sure helped anybody while he was hitting coach.
by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 28, 2007 11:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Strikeouts
by KCDrummer82 on Dec 29, 2007 12:55 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Strikeouts
*Older
**With less patience and power, and who hits for a much lower average.
by jasomack on Dec 29, 2007 3:16 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Jesus Christ!
by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 29, 2007 8:11 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, Cabrera has better
The K's would not matter if Feliz walked more, hit the ball harder. Unfortunately, he doesn't.
by rfloh on Dec 29, 2007 9:47 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Well, Cabrera has better
by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 29, 2007 11:28 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
His balls in play isn't that big a problem
His contact rate is also 82%, which isn't awful really, if seen in a vacuum.
No, Pedro's biggest problem is what it always has been, his walk rate. A 5% walk rate is putrid, and when you add it to his other around averagish numbers, it makes him a crappy offensive ballplayer.
by awesomer on Dec 29, 2007 12:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I know that you are not comparing the 2
K's are not a problem, if a player makes up for them by doing other things well. Feliz doesn't.
by rfloh on Dec 29, 2007 11:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That Is Not A Correct Way Of Looking At It
by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 30, 2007 8:18 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: I know that you are not comparing the 2
His main problem is that makes too much bad contact. If he stuck out 50 times more a year it would mean that he was seeing more pitches as a whole and would probably result in more walks and a higher BA. As he is now, he gets himself out too often.
by chefasaurus on Dec 30, 2007 11:42 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: I know that you are not comparing the 2
by howtheyscored on Dec 30, 2007 12:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Strikeouts
im not for re-signing Feliz but the fat tub of goo would have to make up 56 runs with his bat??
by slojoe on Dec 30, 2007 3:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Fleas
by jponry on Dec 29, 2007 2:14 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
This is only partially in jest
5 Stages of Feliz
- Denial: that anyone can have that bad plate disipline... he'll break out any day.
- Anger: I cannot believe we still have that jerk at 3B >:(
- Bargaining: So, we will trade you Feliz and Lowry for nothing, just to get rid of Feliz
- Depression: I cannot believe we still have that jerk at 3B :{
- Acceptance: Well his defense really is quite good. Maybe he isn't the worst problem on the team.
PS Can anyone believe this dog of a roster currently has a $90M payroll?? And Sabean is an average GM?
by zenbitz on Dec 29, 2007 9:58 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Fleas
by Sayhey on Dec 29, 2007 10:13 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Fleas
by Lyle on Dec 29, 2007 11:14 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Fleas
I'd much rather trade for a few legit bats for short term stop gap deals at first and third, and use any surplus in pitching to acquire real future position talent when other teams are desperate for the pitching. Concretely, I think they should pursue a trade for Rolen that doesn't involve blue chip pitching prospects, and a salary dump trade of Durham for Sexson.
If those trades can't be had for a reasonable cost in players, or a comparable deal, then I'd rather sit on trades up until the trade deadline. Under the last scenario, a signing of Feliz to a one year deal wouldn't be the worst thing they could do, it just doesn't really help turn a truly horrendous lineup into anything but possibly a tiny bit less horrendous.
by Sayhey on Dec 29, 2007 5:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Fleas
by howtheyscored on Dec 29, 2007 11:07 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Fleas
by decidenator on Dec 29, 2007 11:36 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Cabrera vs Feliz
by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 29, 2007 11:46 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Aaaaaaand
by howtheyscored on Dec 29, 2007 11:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Noooo......
by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 29, 2007 12:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Noooo......
Cabrera: 47
Difference of 61 runs. Obviously average is probably set different for both metrics and don't mesh very well, but please don't go saying how Feliz could be better than Cabrera overall, UZR obviously has some problems as well (Ichiro third worst CF in baseball ORLY? Rolen still 4th most valuable defensively in baseball)
by awesomer on Dec 29, 2007 12:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Good Answer
by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 29, 2007 3:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Actually,
Also, it's not just UZR that thinks Feliz is great; plus minus from John Dewan has Feliz as the best 3b from 2005-2007. RZR and Zone Rating both had Feliz as great too last year, RZR had him at 28 runs above average, Zone Rating at 25 runs above average.
RZR had Miguel Cabrera at 12 runs below average, Zone Rating at 18 runs below average.
So, while the gap between the 2 varies somewhat depending according to what Metric you want to use, it is pretty significant: RZR has Feliz better by 40 runs, Zone Rating has Feliz better by 43 runs.
As for Rolen, RZR had him at 14 runs above average, Zone Rating at 17 runs above average, so YES, Rolen still great. The problem with Rolen is NOT his defense. It's his hitting.
The issue that ALL the metrics, not just UZR, but also RZR, ZR, plus minus have is with players who make a lot of out of zone plays: Ichiro!, Andruw, David Wright, and conversely those who don't make a lot of OOZ plays.
UZR does NOT rate highly guys who make a lot of OOZ plays, guys like Ichiro!, Andruw, David Wright; thus they do badly.
Conversely RZR DOES rate highly guys who make a lot of OOZ plays, thus guys like Ichiro!, Andruw, David Wright do well in it.
by rfloh on Dec 29, 2007 11:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Noooo......
I'm using a heaping helping of intuitive logic here, but Pedro Feliz's defense does not make him nearly as valuable as Miguel Cabrera. If that were true we would have had the equivalent of Bonds and Cabrera on the same team last year. Which, frankly, wouldn't have sucked. Still might not have been great, but wouldn't have sucked.
by howtheyscored on Dec 29, 2007 12:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Noooo......
I admit it seems wrong - and that is a good reason to suspect it. But you can't question the results and call the stat bogus. You actually have to question the methodology in detail.
All these PBP defensive stats make some assumptions.
Basically, they try to measure how many hits and extra bases the player prevents - relative to some average fielder. These extra hits and bases can be translated into runs pretty easily.
by zenbitz on Dec 29, 2007 2:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Noooo......
Just think: If it's true and we had traded Lincecum & Co. for Cabrera... we would have essentially just been a Lincecum&Co.less team with a Feliz alternative...
But I can see where the sense is in the evaluation. I just can't get myself to agree with it in almost any way.
by howtheyscored on Dec 29, 2007 4:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Wouldn't Have Sucked?
by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 29, 2007 3:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Wouldn't Have Sucked?
Just think of that team, though: Bonds, Cabrera, Klesko, Aurilia, Molina... it would have been the slowest team ever!
by howtheyscored on Dec 29, 2007 4:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Barry was a good enough hitter that
Offensively, using either Batting Runs or Batting Runs above average, he was worth about 40-50 runs above average.
Defensively, about 20 runs below average.
That is still 20-30 runs ABOVE average.
by rfloh on Dec 29, 2007 11:51 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Fleas
So simply subtracting UZR from BtRuns doesn't really illustrate the disparity between Cabrera and Feliz.
by chefasaurus on Dec 30, 2007 12:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Fleas
by howtheyscored on Dec 30, 2007 12:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Fleas
by giantsrainman on Dec 30, 2007 1:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The method by which
Basically, a single is assigned a certain run value, a double is assigned a certain run value, an out is assigned a certain run value, a walk is assigned a certain run value etc. These run values are based both on real world results and simulations using stats of real players. They aren't arbitrarily assigned.
by rfloh on Dec 30, 2007 1:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
They're in runs
The numbers that MGL releases are in runs relative to average, both in per 150 games, and in total. He converts them from plays into runs before releasing them.
Plus minus by Dewan is in plays. However turning 28 plays into just 7 runs is a gross underestimation. One play in the plus minus system is worth about 0.7-0.8 runs, not 0.25 runs.
The RZR and Zone Rating numbers are converted from plays into runs using linear weights; which is what BtRuns does.
by rfloh on Dec 30, 2007 1:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: They're in runs
I respect the thought process and research put into building these field metrics, but this one just does not match common sense. It's saying that Feliz essentially saved 112 Total Bases over average in about 400 attempts. Or, put another way, every average 3B is giving up a 3/4 of a base a game. Or Cabrera gives up more than one runner a game more that Feliz. Do you really believe that?
by chefasaurus on Dec 30, 2007 4:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Believer
by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 30, 2007 4:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Believer
Just on chances, Feliz 'got to' 17 more balls that Miguel (based on PO/A/E) and Petey made 29 more outs from 3B. But I don't see how those extra 29 outs that Feliz recorded (even with the 12 errors more Cabrera commited for a total of 42 extra runners in theory) can equal 29 runs over the course of a year. That's basically saying that 70% of runners that Cabrera allowed became runs. That's where I have an issue. In the Runs calculation.
by chefasaurus on Dec 30, 2007 6:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
29 Outs
by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 30, 2007 7:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: 29 Outs
by chefasaurus on Dec 30, 2007 10:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
RZR from the Hardball Times
It had Miguel Cabrera making 195 out of 311 plays. 50 out of zone plays.
These numbers are based on actual observation, ie people watching the game.
"How many outs/runners do you equal to a run? And how do you come up with that number? This is my question with some of the linear measurements and adjustments on these metrics."
The conversions that are done are based on actual game data, ie they aren't arbitrarily assigned, as in a stat like the original version of Runs Created.
Also, the conversions that are used for the defensive data are the same as the conversions that are used for the offensive data. The principles are the same.
If Barry Bonds at his best can be 125 runs above average offensively, if ARod can be 70 runs above avearage offensively at his best, there is no reason why Pedro Feliz can't be 20-30 runs above average defensively.
Why is it difficult to believe that great defense actually makes a difference, and that defense actually matters?
If you are a subscriber to Baseball Prospectus, Dan Fox explains his SFR here. SFR unlike UZR / RZR / ZR / PMR is not a zonal based system. It attempts to do what the zonal systems do without the cost. The zonal systems can only be used for games in which there is zone data: which means they can't be used for the minors, for games in the not too distant past.
The method by which people have converted the raw data from Zone Rating, RZR, PMR into runs is explained and used by Chris Dial here.
Others have then used it to convert this year's data.
MGL explains his UZR here.
by rfloh on Dec 30, 2007 10:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: RZR from the Hardball Times
by chefasaurus on Dec 31, 2007 8:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Believer
by jponry on Dec 30, 2007 6:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, yes,
As for Cabrera, his stats haven't always been this bad. That really is the hope for him and the Tigers. That, now that he is out of Florida and on a real team, he'll play better.
by rfloh on Dec 30, 2007 10:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Runs vs Baserunners
I watched a lot of games last year, and I would estimate that in at least 75% of the games, Pedro would make at least one defensive play that, IMO, an average third baseman would not make. Let's say that a play like that saved a run about 1/3 of the time. That would mean that Pedro saved a run over and above an average third baseman in 40 games. If you assume he saves a run 1/4 of the time he makes a good play, then it would be that would be 29 games where he saved a run.
I don't know if any of those assumptions are accurate, but at least the number +28 jibes intuitively with what I observed on the field as a fan.
It's also not that hard for me to believe that Cabrera was as bad a fielder as Pedro was good. Not only does Cabrera not possess Pedro's defensive tools, but he also doesn't try very hard. We're all so sick of Pedro's hacking that we are ready to accept almost anything else. Had we traded for Miguel Cabrera, our frustration with Pedro's hacking may have just been transferred to Cabrera's terrible D.
by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 30, 2007 1:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Runs vs Baserunners
by howtheyscored on Dec 30, 2007 2:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Fleas
Would it kill you guys to take a flier on Dallas McPherson? He's 5 years younger than Feliz and has what could turn out to be a very good bat. Yeah, he's not great defensively, but you could move him to 1B if he sucks and 3B. McPherson is already a better offensive player than what the Giants hope to trot out at 3B and 1B right now -- and could prove to be much better.
But if you must bring Feliz back -- and that looks like almost a certainty right now -- do not sign him for more than 1 yr/$4M. Do not give him a 2 year deal unless it looks like 2/$6M (with no option/buyout) so you can cut him loose when he posts a .234/.269/.352 line at 2B this year.
by Lincecum Cain Then Pray For Rain on Dec 29, 2007 4:27 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Fleas
God bless Pedro Feliz.
by GaryEdmundCarter on Dec 29, 2007 5:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Fleas
by howtheyscored on Dec 29, 2007 5:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Fleas
But just because Detroit overpaid for Inge (who had a better offensive track record than Feliz through 2006) doesn't mean that the Giants should do the same for Pedro. By that same logic should Detroit have offered $126 million for Dontrelle Willis just because we overpaid for Zito?
There is no way I would ever offer Feliz a three year deal, no matter what salary was written into the contract. I really don't want to tie up a roster spot for Feliz for any longer, but might reluctantly agree to an inexpensive two year deal if it was clear that Feliz would start and then play a utility role (ala Aurilia) once the Giants found a real 3B. One year, though, would be far preferable IMO.
by Lincecum Cain Then Pray For Rain on Dec 29, 2007 9:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
McPherson
by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 29, 2007 10:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: McPherson
by Lincecum Cain Then Pray For Rain on Dec 30, 2007 1:21 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
We can't take it anymore
by Moggeee on Dec 31, 2007 2:26 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: McPherson
The problem with taking a flier on Dallas is that I don't think a flier is being offered. Boras no doubt sees this as the best, if not the only opportunity he's ever going to have to be on the open market and is looking for some guaranteed $$$ and quite possibly multiple years. I think you'd have to be crazy to offer that, but surely that's what Boras is holding out for at this point and will probably continue to do so until ST.
That would be my interpretation of the "heading in opposite directions" quote that came out of the front office on this topic.
by Roger on Dec 31, 2007 1:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Fleas
You do realize that the first year Pedro plays outside of San Francisco will be the year he finally lays off the breaking ball in the dirt & starts slapping the ball the other way every now & again. He'll hit .320 (OBP of .321), hit 35 doubles, 30 hrs, knockin about 120 and every Giant fan with a heart problem will pass. I'm all for putting off that day for as long as possible. I care about the well-being of others. You obviously don't.
sorry, sarcasm just went off the charts today.
by ResDog on Dec 29, 2007 7:15 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Fleas
I don't care about his defense either, and I love good defense. I just believe that a good defensive third baseman doesn't get you that much unless he's a good hitter on top of it. There just aren't that many chances at the position. There are reasons why teams are built with good defense up the middle and power at the corners. Since Mays' Field more or less dictates playing a CFer in right because of the extra ground to cover, it is absolutely necessary that 3b not be given to a guy with a good glove and a weenie bat.
by marklar on Dec 31, 2007 12:10 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

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