Noah Lowry

Blanton is more durable, has superior peripheral statistics, and pitches in the American League.

Blanton:
14-10, 3.95 ERA, .269 BAA, 1.22 WHIP
230.0 IP, 240 H, 40 BB, 140 K
2nd AL in IP; 3rd AL in CG

Lowry:
14-8, 3.92 ERA, .265 BAA, 1.55 WHIP
156.0 IP, 155 H, 87 BB, 87 K
3rd most BB in NL

There are three big differences that I see:
(1) Durability- Blanton is a horse, whereas Noah seem to be capable of pitching fewer innings.  Even outside of ERA, Ks, and all of that, teams really value a pitcher that can eat up innings.
(2) Control- Noah gives up WAY too many walks and this bumped his WHIP up a good deal.
(3) Strikeouts- An out is an out, but more strikeouts usually mean better stuff.

The lack of strikeouts plus the lack of control is a big red flag.  You have successful pitchers who are wild, but make up for it with amazing stuff.  You also have pitchers without really good stuff, but can locate the ball so well that they can still trick hitters and prevent them from hitting the ball with power.

Noah is neither.  He has below average stuff, and horrible control.  Yet, he is fairly successful.  You can chalk this up to either being a gamer, or being lucky.  I think it is a bit of both.

If the market doesn't heat up from Noah after Blanton gets traded, the best thing to do is to keep Lowry and hope that he can show teams that he is durable and has better control than last year indicates.  If he can do those things, we will likely be able to get something good before the trade deadline when teams are desperate for that last piece that can put them into the playoffs and beyond.

Can anyone surmise why Lowry fell off a cliff in the first place? The dude was totally dealing for his first couple years in the majors--above average K rate, below average walk rate. And of course the near-no-hitter against Boston.

And then, kerplunk. What's up with that?

I'm going write a main-page post about Lowry's declining K-rate, so if you think you have a must-read theory, you'll have to explain it twice. Or just ignore my post. That's probably far more likely.

i was wondering the exact same thing. (why blanton over lowry)  there have been some convincing arguments here, but the difference between the rumored packages the a's are seeking for blanton and what it sounds like the giants are being offered for lowry is huge.  noah has had success with little to no run support the last two years.  yes he has played in the NL, in a pitcher's park, but a mid-90's fastball seems to be a little overvalued on the trade market.  i think we should focus on what we can get for sanchez.

I wonder if Marc Normandin at BP might be willing to do a "Player Profile" on Noah Lowry...

I'm sure there are more interesting candidates, but it might be kind of cool to see what he can find in the pitch-by-pitch data.  

I hope the fact he's a lefty and has a tidy fixed contract through 2010 helps somewhat balance out the fears over last year's numbers/dead arm.

Sabean has already turned down Lastings Milledge for him, so maybe the offers for Noah are better than we think they are. Perhaps Sabean is holding out for a heist.