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Rajai: Dancing like a freak

174246766_ea2fd78204_tiny by Grant on in News Comment 124 comments

In the darkest recesses of my brain, there's a part of me that understands the argument for trading Tim Lincecum.  I think it's stored in the same part of the lobe as the full lyrics to "My Posse's on Broadway." When I was in full froth mode after the first Rios rumor, I looked up Rios's similarity scores on Baseball Reference. Aha!, I cried:

  1. Tony Gonzalez (964)
   2. Rondell White (964)
   3. Bernie Williams (963)
   4. Mel Hall (960)
   5. Roy Weatherly (958)
   6. Dan Ford (958)
   7. Coco Crisp (957)
   8. Harry Lumley (954)
   9. Tito Francona (953)
  10. Shannon Stewart (953)
With the possible exception of Bernie Williams, it isn't exactly a bunch of Hall-of-Famers. Then I went to the Matt Cain page for my counter-argument (this was still when Cain was believed to be the pitcher in the proposed deal):
  1. Moe Drabowsky (984)
   2. Mark Lemongello (976)
   3. Tommy Hughes (976)
   4. Scott Kazmir (976)
   5. Mike Witt (974)
   6. Jack Fisher (973)
   7. Pete Falcone (972)
   8. Don Sutton (971) *
   9. Bert Cunningham (970)
  10. Jerry Walker (969)
Mmm...Lemongello. Lincecum's comps aren't a prettier bunch, either. I know similarity scores aren't a great way to discern a current player's worth, as they're more of a curiosity than a tool for evaluation. And the comps are based on stats like ERA, but it doesn't seem like they're adjusted for league or park, which is why Don Sutton comes up for Cain even though Sutton was merely average through his age-22 season. Still, it's hard not to stare at the names (other than Sutton) with a little fear. Apparently, young pitchers don't always pan out.

Some of the more logical arguments for the Rios/Lincecum swap are based in this fear of young pitching. When I dig back through old STATS, Inc. Minor League Scouting Notebooks, it seems like 50% of the best prospects flame out. For every C.C. Sabathia, there's a Ryan Anderson. For every Roy Oswalt, there's a Jon Rauch (who has carved out a relief niche, but still....) The percentage increases as it moves down the list from the great prospects to the really good. Guys like Kurt Ainsworth and Mario Ramos seem to drop out of sight at a 75% rate, but for the purposes of Lincecum we'll go with the first batch. Note that all of these percentages were pulled directly from my nether regions, which makes this mostly anecdotal.

Rios is good. He could be great. If he develops like the Giants think he will, the Giants would probably sign him to a fat extension and build the team around him, so the service time issue is more fiscal than logistical. It wouldn't be a fair return for Lincecum, but at least the Giants would be getting a good young player back; it isn't as if they're dangling Lincecum for Orlando Cabrera.

My reasoning against almost any Lincecum trade, though, is based on abject fear. Here are two scenarios of failure:

  • Scenario 1 - The trade does not go through. Lincecum goes the way of Foppert, and the Giants never get Lincecum to reach his potential.
  • Scenario 2 - The trade goes through. Rios doesn't improve, and while he remains a nice player to have, he is certainly isn't a star. Lincecum wins eight Cy Youngs for Toronto, takes them to three World Series, Canadian school children start getting Lincecum's Birthday off as a holiday, and a newly discovered species of moose is named for him.
If the first scenario happens, we shake our tiny fists at the heavens and curse the mischievous god of young pitching. We knew that young pitching was fragile, but we thought it would be different this time....

If the second scenario happens, we all die alone and miserable.

I'm scared of the second scenario. I want to be loved. Therefore, Lincecum stays.

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Cain vs. Lincecum
Lemongello vs. Oyster Burns.
***

Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Dec 10, 2007 9:29 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Cain vs. Lincecum
A friend of mine got the oyster burns from a dancing girl in Guam when he was in the Navy.  Wasn't too bad though, he put some Lemongello on them and it cleared up in a week or two.

by dmunk on Dec 10, 2007 7:54 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
If Sabean trades Caincicum then he ought to be thrown under the very same car whose tires he is constantly kicking....
"Buy High-Sell Low"--The Brian Sabean Method Of Trading

by Mordy From Monsey on Dec 10, 2007 9:34 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
"Therefore, Lincecum stays."

I like this one much better than it's converse.

If I owned this place and Hell, I'd rent this out and live in Hell...

by ilselu1 on Dec 10, 2007 9:34 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
What would the proposed name of this moose be?

I feel like I have to ask.

Brian Anderson: I can has spot in Fresno 'pen?

by Anticon23 on Dec 10, 2007 9:35 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
The northeastern spotted cum moose?

by Grant on Dec 10, 2007 9:44 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: I had no choice.
You sound just like the Bass I had on my line on the St. Johns River the other day. Gurgle on, my friend, gurgle on.
***

Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Dec 10, 2007 10:04 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
I think a little vinegar might take care of those spots.
"Hillary has that nomination sewn up." - rxmeister (who wants to be sure that no one interpets this statement as an endorsement of Clinton) 11/9/07

by Goofus on Dec 10, 2007 2:48 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Rios is good, but almost certainly could not be great.

No matter how you slice it, his minor-league stats do not portend much more with the bat than he is showing right now.  Now, mid-800s OPS with great speed and defense makes for a nice RF, the kind the Giants mostly have lacked.  However, Roberto Clemente (age-26 OPS+: 148) he and his age-26 OPS+ of 122 just plain ain't.

by wcw on Dec 10, 2007 9:46 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

"My Posse's on Broadway"
Greatest song reference I've ever heard in a baseball blog ...
LinceCain and pray for rain .... or for someone to take Zito off our hands.

by Lincecain on Dec 10, 2007 9:56 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
According to his comps, Rios won't be a hall of famer, but at least he'll catch a lot of touchdowns  and become a World-Series-winning manager.
"There's not enough bases out there to intentionally walk everybody you want to." - Grady Little

by leftymalo on Dec 10, 2007 10:00 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

I think about it this way:
At AN, they were talking about Swisher for Lincecum. Swisher? I bet very few McCoven like that deal. Rios is a 2-time all-star! Shiny! Swisher is a greasy hick who's never been to an All-Star game. Yucky poo! Whatever. Never trust a person who says "yucky poo," even if they are just a figment of my imagination.

Well, first, I don't get the All-Star thing. So Rios was a non-starting All-Star, twice. Big deal. He couldn't hold a candle to most of the starting AS outfielders. Everything with him is based on potential, which is quite ironic, considering that his minor league stats don't really project him to be all that and a bag of chips. Has he hit his ceiling? It's quite possible.

Swisher is the better player in just about every category that should matter to the Giants, is nicely controllable and the same age as Rios, has reached the 35 HR plateau at a young age and actually demonstrated that thing known as "pure power", and he's still about 12 rungs down the ladder from what I would want in exchange for Lincecum. Bear in mind, it's maybe a 15-rung ladder.

A trade I would take? Lincecum for Nick Swisher, Kurt Suzuki, and Bobby Crosby might come close. I think I'd want a minor league 3B thrown in though.

***

Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Dec 10, 2007 10:03 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: I think about it this way:
Speaking of A's, Shannon Stewart as a Rios comp? Ha!
***

Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Dec 10, 2007 10:09 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: I think about it this way:
I just wanted to point out that in 2006 Rios was pretty awesome before the All-Star break.  Then he hurt his leg and suffered from some bizarre infection that seemed to screw him up the rest of the year.

2006
Pre All-Star:   .330/.383/.585  15hrs, 20 2bs
Post All-Star:  .261/.297/.411  2hrs, 13 2bs

"natto is just weird and gross in smell, texture, and taste" - BVCE

by SF Pete on Dec 10, 2007 10:14 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: I think about it this way:
But in 2007, he didn't come close to .330/.383/.585,  and he had a bazillion of what I assume were healthy at-bats, so I'm not sure this argument holds the proverbial water.

Rios in '07:

.297/.354/.498

Randy Winn in '07:

.300/.353/.445

Pedro Feliz in '04:

.276/.305/.485

Combine the best of Randy Winn and Pedro Feliz and you get Alex Rios. Sad but true. Felizian power = 24 HR in 643 at-bats. That's the kind of power Alex Rios posted last year.

***

Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Dec 10, 2007 10:29 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
With each day that goes by, and with the denials from the Jays over the weekend that a Rios-for-Lincecum deal was even on the table, I think Sabean is actually trying the Japanese angle.

The Yankees have confirmed, and the Giants have never denied, that talks on Matsui are underway.  It is very possible that the "mystery team" in the Fukudome sweepstakes is the Giants.  Sure, 3 years at $12 million per for a 30 year-old Japanese RF with pop and a good RF glove is a risk, as is sending Sanchez to the Yankees for Matsui and his $12 million per.

But if you started next season with a Matsui/Winn/Fukudome outfield with Schierholtz and Davis as reserves (Roberts and Lewis would be packaged elsewhere), and used these other pieces to fill in the 3B/1B needs, you could have a new batting order AND Zito/Cain/Lincecum/Lowry/Correia?

by Buck Henry on Dec 10, 2007 10:03 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
I would like that scenario better if Lowry wasn't in it. Can anyone explain why we haven't raided the Mariners cupboard yet?
***

Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Dec 10, 2007 10:08 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
I dont think Lowry will be traded until the Santana chip falls. Because that will lead to the dominoes of Haren, Bedard, etc. When teams like Seattle, the Mets, etc fail to land (If they fail) one of the studs, they will turn to Lowry. But why trade chips if you can have one of those guys? So we must wait on Lowry. I prefer the Japanese angle to the Rios one. But if we trade for Matsui, the price better not be too high. We dont need another aging outfielder.

by S49erfan on Dec 10, 2007 10:15 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Everybody agrees that Lowry should be the first traded at the Gigantes fire sale... but if we can I am certainly for holding on to him. He is a grinder, and lefties ofter don't reach their prime as fast as righties, especially finesse lefties. If we could get a solid to good bat for Lowry, then go for it, but if this "speed and defense" game is what we're going for I'll keep Noah, I'd rather have him that Pat Misch. Not to mention, Lowry and Cain will hit more homeruns then the infield as constructed right now.
lincecum, cain, lowry, sanchez for jeff kent

by lincysgiants on Dec 10, 2007 12:16 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Lowry as dowry
I have no factual basis for this (unlike the pros here, I prefer my gut feelings to be unencumbered by actual performance data) but I have to agree that there's something about Noah that makes me feel his intangibles are underrated, the 14 wins weren't as accidental as they seem and that he could mature into a Jamey Moyer type player you'd like to have around. I don't like his chances against a really shut-down opponent like Peavy but when the situation allows for bending without breaking he's ok -- reminds me of Gaylord Perry that way, although he hasn't gotten to be quite that good yet and seems to be more fragile. It's right to use him as trade bait but I wouldn't be too quick to let him go if the rest of the league is too hung up on the numbers.

by NearestNorwich on Dec 10, 2007 5:55 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Lowry as dowry
Agreed. Interestingly enough the Yankees are apparently interested in landing J. Sanchez for Hideki Matsui. Sanchez does have that nice live arm and natural looking motion, but I'd keep Lowry over him anyday for the intangibles you talk about. He is not overpowering (definitely throws a lot harder than Moyer) but if you look at his career numbers, they are solid no. 3 starter numbers. He is not an ace, but in this rotation he doesn't have to be. He is still relatively young (27 next season) and can win games. I am defintely not against trading him (i.e. if we could have gotten Milledge or Delmon Young) but if it is for an average MLB'er I vote let him hang around. He is no doubt better than Misch who is basically the same age as Lowry.
lincecum, cain, lowry, sanchez for jeff kent

by lincysgiants on Dec 10, 2007 7:41 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Lowry as dowry
Of course they're interested.  Matsui is a real player, but in left field with poor range and a merely adequate bat (for that position) he's currently slightly overpaid.  The Yankees need to move Damon out of CF, to save their defense.  Matsui is the most expendable.  That means that any trade you make for someone whose current present value is higher than a sandwich pick in 2010, less whatever dollar amount you estimate you are overpaying in 2008 and 2009, is a win.

Sanchez right now is outperforming what a likely sandwich pick and a later-round throwin are likely to be doing in ~2013.  Performance now is worth a lot more than possible performance in a half-decade.  So Sanchez or Lowry for Matsui is a huge win on value for the Yankees, even though neither may be a win on talent.

For the same reason, Matsui for Durham or Roberts or (here we go into pure fanboy fantasy) both of them, or (beyond the valley of the fanboy fantasy) Zito is a win for the Giants, because those players are way overpaid, versus Matsui's slightly overpaid, and those players are going to be underperformers at their positions, versus Matsui's adequate performance.

If I'm Sabean and I know Matsui is available because of the need to swing Damon over, and I know the Yankees have a ton of cash and need some pitching, I am selling the heck out of Zito.  We bought high because we thought we were going to the Series.  Now our team is punk and we need to rebuild.  His 2007 was a fluke underperforming year.  You need a great lefty like him in Yankees stadium.  Etc etc etc.

It'll never happen, because unlike Sabean, Cashman is not an idiot.

That's why he's after Sanchez or Lowry.  Even if whichever one he gets blows up, it's still a win.  If instead the traded pitcher breaks out, it's a double win.

by wcw on Dec 11, 2007 8:45 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Lowry as dowry
Giants fans can only hope that your doppleganger is the GM for some (non-Giants) baseball team...

by zenbitz on Dec 10, 2007 9:09 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Lowry as dowry
Bingo -- that's the only way we'd get enough value to make him worth trading at this time. Come mid-season, when Noah is 7-4 for a Giants team already 10 games under .500, there may be a bit more interest.

by NearestNorwich on Dec 11, 2007 5:50 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Lowry as dowry
I'm not sure that's true in the abstract, though I do believe it's true of Sabean, who has shown approximately zero imagination and ability in selling high when he trades.

In the abstract, Lowry is a great commodity.  He's a lefty, he's cheap, he's got a decent ERA, he may not be a #1 starter -- but he might turn into a #2 if you squint and look at his college numbers.  But we have to sell him now, before he has a real chance to break out, because we need hitting.  You're getting a real deal here, because I like you..

by wcw on Dec 11, 2007 8:53 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
..yeah, but since Matsui is being paid roughly his current market value, and probably a bit more, you shouldn't give up anything at all for him.  You either trade another market-value player of similar quality (see Winn, Randy -- market value, can't hit the ball as hard but can play adequate CF defense vs Matsui's below-average LF), or you give up nothing of value.

I'd be happy to trade Durham for Matsui, say.

by wcw on Dec 10, 2007 10:11 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
You could probably even still fit Schierholtz in as a 1B-- I think I'd rather give his bat a shot than Ort's-- there's certainly more upside with Nate.  Or there's the oft discussed option of playing Matsui at 1B in which case LF is still open for Nate.  

Anyway, as I've said before, I could deal with that.   Hell, a heart of the order that went Fukudome/Matsui/Molina actually wouldn't be THAT embarrassing.  I mean it's bad, but not historically bad or anything.  And maybe we could find a way to unload Durham to free a spot for Franny at 2B and then go on to pick up Iwamura from the Rays.  That would at least give the local media an angle other than "OMG TEH JINTS SUX"

Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...

by Smoke on the Water on Dec 10, 2007 10:26 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Is the Japanese Angle anything like the French Connection?

by Sigualicious on Dec 10, 2007 12:06 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Whenever I try the similarity scores on Baseball Reference I get weird results. By the way - Bonds most similar by age for age 42 (last season): Willie Mays. 42 year old Mays hit .211/.303/.344. That's the closest anyone ever came to doing what Barry did last year.
"They invented the All-Star game for Willie Mays" - Ted Williams

by Cookyman on Dec 10, 2007 10:07 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Cain and Lincecum are not prospects, though.  

Foppert, Anderson, and Rauch were always more about stuff than results.

Lincecum for Rios is a bad idea.

Who dat is? That's just Ortmeier's daddy.

by rotorueter on Dec 10, 2007 10:19 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
I like limoncello better than I like lemongello. I like Lincecum better than I like Rios. The decision stands. No trade.

Lincecumgello just sounds...ew. And where is Rajau dancing like a freak?

Democracy is lovely but baseball is more mature. BVCE supports Manny Burriss and SF Dugout.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Dec 10, 2007 10:20 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
And where is Rajai dancing like a freak?

On the def side. The girlies see his booty, and their knees get weak.

Larry Baer is the white guy; people think he's funny. He's an executive VP, and he spends a lot of money.

by Grant on Dec 10, 2007 10:29 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Check out these numbers....

Strikeouts per innings pitched (career)
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/SOp9_career.shtml

Then theres Lincecum

http://firstinning.com/players/Tim-Lincecum-a/

He has a 9.24...his first year...at 23.

Career Leaders
1.    Randy Johnson* (43)    10.776   
2.    Kerry Wood (30)            10.327
3.    Pedro Martinez (35)    10.199   
4.    Nolan Ryan+             9.548
5.    Johan Santana* (28)    9.497   
6.    Sandy Koufax+*             9.278   
7.    Jake Peavy (26)            9.022   

Then theres the kicker... Lincecum had 15.05 strikeouts per nine innings pitched in the minors. Thats right 15.05. He has some of the most dominant special stuff that has ever pitched in a Giants uniform. Trading this phenom for a 2 year all star reserve that is in his prime hitting 24 home runs a year? It would be the worst day of all of our lives.

by stevealbs on Dec 10, 2007 12:48 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Love what you did with...
...Goat, but I always figured you'd be a Cubs fan.
"When Jackson Williams thinks of how many times Madison Bumgarner has tried to kill Tyler Walker..."

by multiphasic on Dec 10, 2007 2:08 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Limoncello>Lemongello

Infinitely better than Lemongello. Although Lemongello is Monty Hall's son, so maybe he would make a good GM :-) "I'll take what's behind door number 3 "

My adopted son Matt Downs. He can hit a little.

by nvsfg on Dec 10, 2007 10:36 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Ahhhh rollin in my posse was getin kinda bored
There's not anotha team with less points scored
We don't walk around like criminals or flex like big gorillas
My homeboy Rajai Davis is a teenage lady killa
LinceCain and pray for rain .... or for someone to take Zito off our hands.

by Lincecain on Dec 10, 2007 10:38 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
http://www.ocregister.com/sports/interested-selanne-season-1938317-last-salary

The Giants have some interest in veteran outfielder Luis Gonzalez of the Dodgers. -- OC Register

Noooooooooooooooo!!!
And No to Swisher deal as well, but Yes to D Willis deal for Sanchez/Prospect

by Boytrickery1 on Dec 10, 2007 10:40 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
if we can get Willis for Sanchez/Prospect, can't we get a decent corner infield bat for the same?
Bonds stands alone.

by nostocksjustbonds on Dec 10, 2007 10:48 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Luis Gonzalez? That guy is Brian's type of Player. 39 years old and 4 years past his prime. When will this madness ever end?
Your 2010 NL rookie of the year,... Andy D'alessio

by ramirez415 on Dec 10, 2007 10:53 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
My best guess: when the team has new owners. After all, the FO gave Brian a nice extension as a reward for reaching new depths of baseball impotence. I certainly don't trust these fools to find a better GM, if they don't even trust themselves to do it.
***

Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Dec 10, 2007 11:29 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Giants TV Deal
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/12/10/SPA9TR869.DTL

SF Giants buy into cable station

The Giants will announce a much longer deal that changes the dynamics of their cable/satellite distribution. The Giants have bought an interest in Fox Sports Net Bay Area. The team and station will say it's a long-term deal. The Chronicle has learned the deal covers 25 years. The Giants' stake in the station is believed to be in the 20-30 percent range. Earlier this year, Comcast purchased a 60 percent share of FSNBA, with Fox keeping a 40 percent interest. So, the Giants are one of three owners of FSNBA, which will take on the Comcast name in April. -- SF Chronicle

Hopefully this creates extra revenue that the Giants can use on a Zito Extension

by Boytrickery1 on Dec 10, 2007 10:44 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Nothing about this Rios trade looks good to me. The more I look at this kids stats, the more a realize he is nothing more then a good player, but not really good and no where near great.

My favorite player as a kid, when I first fell in love with this team was Will Clark, for me "The Thrill" was god's gift to this 8 year old's baseball heart. But when we brought in barry Bonds I relized, Clark was a real good player, maybe even great, but now where near as good as I had thought he was.

Now I look at Rios's numbers, and they are blown away by Clarks numbers. And I realize, what the hell is Sabean thinking trying to trade our future Cy Young, for this guy?

Just stop with this damn speculation already Brian, tell them no, this team needs more then Alex Rios, and even needs more then Will Clark.

Your 2010 NL rookie of the year,... Andy D'alessio

by ramirez415 on Dec 10, 2007 10:46 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Remember the good old days, when we were talking about Lincecum for M. Cabrera?

And back, before that even, when we could just watch the kid deal, and enjoy it?

Man, Lincecum is the ONLY player that I've ever gone to a minor league game to see.

Don't trade him. At all. I'm sick of this on-paper crappola, even though I've taken part in it. I just want to watch the kids play.

***

Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Dec 10, 2007 11:32 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
The more important thing to note about Lincecum is that he was 7th among all MLB pitchers with 11 or more starts in K/9.  You can't buy strikeout dominance like that, and his walk rate wasn't that bad either, so that's good too, as that leads to a good K/BB ratio.

I don't think you can find a good stat on Rios that puts him in the top 10 among hitters in anything good.

People seem to think that Rios is going to hit 30 HR, but his HR/FB ratio is only about the rate that pitchers give up it at, 10%, so unless his FB% rate goes up tremendously, he's not going to hit 30, in fact, he'd be hard pressed to get mid-20's again as he was over 10% (much over in 2006).

And I like to note that in his first pretty much full season, he could only manage 1 HR in 400-some odd ABs, so it is not like he's a natural at hitting homers, whereas Lincecum and Cain are doing things at 22 that most pitchers today and yesterday aren't doing.

About the comparisons, I would also like to note that it is based on things like IP and other things that are not pertinent to a pitcher's key indicators, this was built long ago before studies found that K/9, K/BB, BB/9 were key indicators of pitching skills, I think that a saber-updated similarity score would yield different comps for Cain and Linecum.  Particularly since a 4.00 ERA today is a very good ERA whereas only 20 years ago, 4.00 ERA would be very ordinary, like the comps there.

Say, anybody with a BP subscription can share PECOTA's comp for Cain and Lincecum?

"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley "I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Dec 10, 2007 10:51 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Cain's number one PECOTA comp is John-friggin-Smoltz.  Andy Benes, Alex Fernandez, and Josh Beckett are also in his top 10.

Tim's TOP THREE are Francisco Rodriguez, Kerry Wood, and Pedro Martinez.  Nolan Ryan is #5.  Koufax, Eckersley, Tom Gordon, and Al Downing are also in the top 20

KEEP THEM!!!!

Who dat is? That's just Ortmeier's daddy.

by rotorueter on Dec 10, 2007 11:19 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Note that those are a year out of date. I imagine that Matt's will be a little better and Tim's a little worse this year.

Basically, these lists tell us these guys have the potential to peak very, very high -- but that most pitchers who fit their profile don't reach that peak, and quite a few of them fizzle out pretty quickly.

by Evan on Dec 10, 2007 11:30 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Tim's top 20 comps are, in order:  Francisco Rodriguez, Kerry Wood, Pedro Martinez, Juan Pizzaro, Nolan Ryan, Curt Simmons, Byung-Hyun Kim, Mickey McDermott, Ken Brett, Baylor Moore, Dennis Eckersley, Jesse Crain, Jesse Foppert, Mike Myers, Tom Gordon, Sandy Koufax, Jose DeLeon, Al Downing, Victor Cruz and Dave Boswell.

Matt's top 20 are:  John Smoltz, Jim Nash, Pete Broberg, Andy Benes, Josh Beckett, Gary Bell, Moe Drabowsky, Alex Fernandez, Stan Williams, Jaret Wright, Art Mahaffey, Jim Maloney, Bill Gullickson, Wayne Simpson, Dick Drott, Larry Dierker, Bart Johnson, Jeremy Bonderman, Gary Nolan and Ray Culp.

These comps are from last winter, so they don't include this past season's performances.

The top pitchers in the comps are naturally Martinez, Nolan, Eckersley and Koufax for Lincecum and Smoltz and Beckett for Cain.  Kerry Wood likely would have been a top-notch comp for Lincecum had he been able to stay healthy.  With a career ERA of just 2.37, Rodriguez is a pretty good comp for Lincecum, as well.

Perhaps the respective ceilings of Lincecum and Cain are ironically indicated by Lincecum's comp of Nolan Ryan and Cain's comp of Gary Nolan.

by sharksrog on Dec 10, 2007 12:26 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

There You Go Again!
Just wondering why you didn't pick Jesse Foppert as Timmy's comp and Josh Beckett for Matt's?  Perhaps being just a bit disingenuous again there?

by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 10, 2007 2:47 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: There You Go Again!
You are right, Dr.   I should have isolated Tim's #13 comp and Matt's #5 and ignored all the rest.

You make accusations that you can't begin to back up -- because they are erroneous.

Why not just make your (sometimes good, sometimes foolish) points and lay off the editorial remarks?

I think you are a bright guy.  I also think you are blinded by your desire to show that what I say is wrong.

Why not build yourself up through the strength of your own remarks, rather than trying to tear down mine?

I am perfectly willing to stand on and behind my remarks.  I'm not always right -- but I'm usually in the ballpark.

And I don't go around accusing genuine people of being disingenuous.

by sharksrog on Dec 10, 2007 3:39 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Rios for Lincecum.
I'd never do this trade but...

You forgot scenario 3. Rios goes to the Giants, plays CF (which he'd do) throws out runners aplenty with his amazing arm and makes catches in the gap (his speed is better than is SB statistics show). Lincecum becomes AJ Burnett lite with his goofy delivery after blowing out his arm in May 2008.

This seems the most likely scenario.

Since the Jays need offense, not pitching and are in a win now mode (Lincecum's value is in the future, not now, which is why he's closer to a prospect than the player that Rios is) with Burnett and Glaus leaving soon.

Rios keeps getting better as he puts on more muscle mass (as he has the last two seasons). The guy has a ton of power. He'd be a better CF than the Jays incumbent who is in CF because he's a well liked guy with a big contract and a gold glove.

Rios broke out in 2006 then had a strange infection, lost muscle mass. He came back in the first half of 2007 then the Home Run Derby messed up his swing (OPS .870 with 17 home runs at the break) which happens (although I'm not surprised he nearly won, I'm surprised he lost, the guy kills balls to the 5th deck at the dome in BP).

Lastly, Rios' minor league stats do have something impressive in them if you know how to read them and know his history. He doesn't have enough AAA AB to matter (he was promoted out of AA)... but his full year at AA he put up a .919 OPS in a pitchers park.  

At first I didn't mind the deal when I heard it, but now I hope it doesn't go through out of spite because I've read so much unwarranted criticism of Rios. That Sabean is considering this deal is the first evidence I've had that he might be an intelligent GM.

by Chris Taylor on Dec 10, 2007 11:08 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rios for Lincecum.
I like Rios.  When I call someone 'good' it's not faint praise.  The Giants haven't got a hitter who is his equal.

However, we can all read minor-league stats.  Rios's are good, like he is, but no more.  He has 2,159 minor-league ABs at a 736 OPS.  Yes, those mostly were young for his level (Sallie League at 20, FSL at 21, Eastern League at 22) and in fair or pitchers environments, but it's still a 736 OPS.

As an example, Rios OPSd 752 in the FSL at age 21.  That's a good showing at a youngish age in a pitcher's league.  Ellis Burks, who some see as Rios's blue-sky upside was also in the FSL and only OPSd 702.  At age 19.  In low-offense 1984.

I'd trade Lowry or Sanchez for him in about three seconds flat.  Under other circumstances, I might even trade a potentially great pitcher for him, since pitchers blow up.  I just don't see the point of doing it now.  Why add a good hitter to a team that won't content?  The player types you add now are those who might be great starting in three years, not in 2008 through '10.

by wcw on Dec 10, 2007 11:39 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rios for Lincecum.
I didn't mean to impugn anyone's ability to "read stats" not at all that's why included the clause about Rios' history... but to just say that he's got an 736 OPS for his career and leave it at that is sort of committing the error I am thinking of. Him putting up a 919 OPS in AA is much more relevant to anything he's doing now or that he's about to do.  

by Chris Taylor on Dec 10, 2007 12:37 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rios for Lincecum.
Sample size matters.  Or have you forgotten Todd Linden OPSd 900 in AA at age 22 as well?  Looking solely at a player's breakout year and ignoring his other 1,500+ minor-league ABs seems like a mistake.

As I said, I like Rios.  I would, however, wager dollars to donuts that in ten years it'll be clear that he wasn't the hitter Eillis Burks turned out to be.

by wcw on Dec 10, 2007 12:48 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rios for Lincecum.
You forgot scenario 3. Rios goes to the Giants, plays CF (which he'd do) throws out runners aplenty with his amazing arm and makes catches in the gap (his speed is better than is SB statistics show). Lincecum becomes AJ Burnett lite with his goofy delivery after blowing out his arm in May 2008.

This seems the most likely scenario.

I smell Blue Jay fan doo-doo. But seriously, there's a scene in the Planet Earth documentary where a great white shark leaps out of the water to just completely destroy a seal. That's kind of what I picture sharksrog doing, literally, which in this case, means not actually, but, like, with words, when he sees your above quote.

***

Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Dec 10, 2007 11:41 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rios for Lincecum.
Any chance you could edit that and make the shark eat Lou Seal?

Seriously, it would make my day to see Lou Seal eaten by a shark.  Gooooooooood times.

"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler

by JRPhillips on Dec 10, 2007 3:14 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rios for Lincecum.
YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY!!!

Seriously, my day has been brightened at LEAST ten fold!

"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler

by JRPhillips on Dec 12, 2007 12:02 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rios for Lincecum.
All I know is I've seen him play CF and he does it better than Vernon Wells. That's comparing two Blue Jays... wanting him in CF over Wells is something I've wanted to see since early last season. If you think that's doo-doo fine, but being a Blue Jay fan isn't particularly relevant to the comparison as they're both Jays.

Also, even if the deal is not done, I'd put my chips on Linececum blowing his arm out and becoming AJ lite. Not that there's anything wrong with that as AJ is an incredible pitcher. He's just got a rebuilt elbow and those are wonky.

by Chris Taylor on Dec 10, 2007 12:41 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rios for Lincecum.
The word "literally" has really lost all it's meaning.
"They invented the All-Star game for Willie Mays" - Ted Williams

by Cookyman on Dec 10, 2007 1:41 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rios for Lincecum.
Perhaps we Giants fans are inflating Lincecum's worth and deflating Rios's.

But hey, you're doing the exact opposite.

The point of not wanting to trade Rios has nothing to do with thinking Rios sucks. Maybe in a vacuum, it's a fair deal, I don't know. But you add Rios to the current Giants lineup and take Lincecum out of the current Giants rotation... well, I think that's a much worse Giants team overall than it was in 2006. And I don't see any point in making any moves that continue to make us worse than we were last year... we're already worse than that, we need to be moving forward.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Dec 10, 2007 12:08 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

relative value
MGL over at the baseballthinkfactory thread on the trade estimated that Rios is worth ~$30m to his parent club, Lincecum ~$50m, with the former much more certain to deliver.

So, setting aside risk, Lincecum is worth closer to two Alex Rioses than to one.  However, you can't set aside risk.  What sort of discount rate bump do you give a pitcher?  You could thereby make this an even swap in present value terms.

That begs the question, though -- should the GIants be going for performance certainty, or taking risks seeking greatness?  To my mind, the saving grace of being a bad team is that you can take lots of risks.  Certainty doesn't matter, since the downside of a blowup is a few extra losses in a disappointing year.  It's years in which you might make the playoffs that those extra few losses spell the difference.

In years like this, you don't trade potential greats unless you get other potential greats back.  Lincecum for Bruce and Cueto?  Heck, yeah.  Just not for Rios.

by wcw on Dec 10, 2007 12:20 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: relative value
That's a good point, I'm curious to know why the Giants aren't looking for a swap of 2006 draft picks, Lincecum for Snider. That'd fit with the Jays  winning now and the Giants would get their potential great hitter in Snider.

by Chris Taylor on Dec 10, 2007 12:42 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: relative value
Snider's a good prospect, but he's not nearly good enough to be worth Lincecum all on his own.

I'd really just rather not trade Lincecum at all OH MAKE THE SPECULATION STOP.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Dec 10, 2007 12:47 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: relative value
I like Snider, too, as much as I like any mid-first-round pick who's done decently well with the bat in rookie and A ball.  But trading for him is like trading for less than Rios -- since at least Rios is doing it in the majors right now -- and taking on the risk that he never makes it.
Now, Rios and Snider, that would tempt me.  Probably not enough to pull the trigger, but that's more because I really like watching Lincecum pitch than because it's a bad trade.

by wcw on Dec 10, 2007 12:52 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: relative value
I can't vouch for the accuracy of the $30 million vs. $50 million value calculations, but if they are true, Alex needs to have a 67% or greater chance of realizing that value than Tim has in order to make Alex the better deal.

I don't know if the $30 million and $50 million are net of what the poster expected the player to be paid, but if not, Tim's lower salary for the next three years should tilt the scales even further in his favor.

I think the trade in Giants history most comparable to the proposed Lincecum-for-Rios deal would be Cepeda for Sadecki.  Ray was a fine pitcher, but didn't have the ceiling Orlando had.  Because he was coming off serious knee surgery, Orlando was the greater risk.

Orlando was traded from the Giants' top area of strength (first base) for their top area of need (pitching, as it has been most of the San Francisco portion of their history).  Now the strength is young starting pitching, and the weakness is hitting.

Lincecum for Rios could work out much better than Cepeda for Sadecki.  It could also work out worse.

by sharksrog on Dec 10, 2007 3:46 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rios for Lincecum.
The first evidence I had that Sabean might be an intelligent general manager was my late dad's hearty recommendation of him.  My dad passed away a few months before Brian was named GM, but not before it had been announced that Brian would indeed replace the Mighty Quinn as GM after the 1996 season.

My second evidence that Sabean might be an intelligent GM came when he made the Matt Williams trade.  Because of my dad's faith in Brian, I never worried about the trade -- and indeed it turned out to be one of Brian's best.

It seems, however, that the game has been passing Brian by to an extent.  While Brian can't be blamed for ruining the Giants farm system (It was already horrible when he took it over.), he can be blamed for belatedly improving it.  The farm system really didn't begin to come together until the 2005 draft of Lincecum.  2005 was Sabean's ninth season as GM.

Perhaps much of the blame lies above Brian, but as the general manager, he is the one who is directly responsible for the mess the Giants now find themselves in.  Now in 11 seasons as GM, Brian has yet to draft and develop a single position player of distinction.

The Giants appear to have turned their farm system around beginning with 2005.  If Brian had done so after the 2002 World Series, as Theo Epstein did when he took over as GM of the Red Sox, the Giants could have been a competitive team last year -- and even more importantly now, this season.

As it is, Brian will likely be forced to write off the remainder of this decade, meaning he was pretty darn good from 2000-2004, and pretty horrible since.

by sharksrog on Dec 10, 2007 12:35 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rios for Lincecum.

What is your evidence (non-Lincecum division) that he did anything of value in 2005-2006?

I mean, we can all agree that Lincecum was a great pick... but one pick does not redeem a farm system.

by zenbitz on Dec 10, 2007 12:59 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rios for Lincecum.
and it was a 2006, not 2005 pick. In 2005, he was picked in the 42nd round by Cleveland.
Brian Sabean: Fucktard.

by nostocksjustbonds on Dec 10, 2007 2:17 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rios for Lincecum.

AH, that was the alarm bell going off in my head.  Good, it means I didn't leave the oven on or something.

But question remains - and this is true even considering the "good" drafts of 01-03 netting us Lowry/Cain.

That's not enough.  3 starting pitchers, even though perhaps elite, is not farm system development.

Can all this really be explained by lack of picks in 04/05?  I kinda doubt it

by zenbitz on Dec 10, 2007 3:02 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rios for Lincecum.
If the Giants had their first round pick in 2005 they would have had the opportunity to get Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Garza or Colby Rasmus.  And that's just the first round, there were other good players who were available in the second and third rounds too.  To name a few Clay Buchholtz, Jed Lowrie, Yunel Escobar, Keven Slowey.  Add a couple of those names to the Giants organization and it's looking much better.

by Cainer on Dec 10, 2007 4:26 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rios for Lincecum.
I wonder if Cleveland is now shooting itself for not signing Tim?  :)

by sharksrog on Dec 10, 2007 3:49 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rios for Lincecum.
My evidence of Brian's making good moves in 2006 (not 2005, which I actually typed here again and had to erase) was not only the drafting and signing of Tim, but the signing of Angel Villalona.  I like Clayton Tanner from that draft, as well, but Tim and Angel are the two players who have superstar potential.

by sharksrog on Dec 10, 2007 3:50 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rios for Lincecum.
For being such a huge Lincecum fan I'm surprised your forgetting Lincecum was drafted in 2006 not 2005.

by Cainer on Dec 10, 2007 2:43 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rios for Lincecum.
My bad.  I didn't forget.  I just plain screwed up.

by sharksrog on Dec 10, 2007 3:48 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rios for Lincecum.
The main reason this organizations minor league system stinks is because of the 2004 and 2005 drafts where the Giants lost their tops picks.  In 2005 our first pick was in the 4th round.  In 2004 we didn't pick until the 2nd round.  2001-2003 the Giants drafted pretty well.  Picking up Lowry and Hennessey in 2001, Cain, Lewis, Ortmeier in 2002.

by Cainer on Dec 10, 2007 2:55 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rios for Lincecum.
2001 was pretty good, and picking Cain in 2002 way down at, what, #25 was genius.  But 2003 was pretty punk; Aardsma was followed, by Wood, Billingsley, Barton, Saltalamacchia, and Adam Jones -- a group that makes it look like it was harder not to pick a good prospect than to do as the Giants did and end up with a meh reliever.  Jennings (remember him?) was followed by Ethier, though he was harder to spot down there.  It wasn't until Schierholtz a few picks later that the Giants got anything interesting, and at the time he was considered a huge overdraft, so they could have had him even lower.  2004 and 2005, especially the latter, were of course even worse.

by wcw on Dec 10, 2007 3:07 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rios for Lincecum.
Yeah in 2003 the Giants didn't land anyone but at least they had picks in each round.  What I meant was that the accumulation of players in the 2001-03 drafts overall were good.

You're right when you said the 2005 draft, or lack of draft, for the Giants was horrible.  2005 might go down as the best draft class in the past 20 years and our team got nothing out of it.

by Cainer on Dec 10, 2007 3:32 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rios for Lincecum.
I'm a big believer that you have to plan for draft classes at least a year early, to decide whether you're a buyer or seller of free-agent-compensation picks.  Sure, this shouldn't stop you signing the next great superstar free agent you like, but it might make you think twice the next time you're looking at 2005's draft class and pondering your bullpen.

Just looking at the names the Giants could have had at #22 (Ellsbury, Garza, Rasmus) or #34 (Buck, Hochevar, Buchholz) -- those were the Benitez picks -- makes a fella nauseated.  Even #70 (Matheny) could have turned into Slowey, Escobar or Owings.

Ugh.

by wcw on Dec 10, 2007 4:19 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rios for Lincecum.
Hey it looks like you were looking up the same info I was.  However you beat me to it.

by Cainer on Dec 10, 2007 4:29 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rios for Lincecum.
Reminding myself is more like it.  I hated those signings the moment they were announced.

by wcw on Dec 10, 2007 4:33 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
What an odd thing to be spiteful over.

by ImFeklhr on Dec 10, 2007 11:35 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Lincecum's value is in the future, not now

Last year, Lincecum's xFIP would have placed him eighth in the NL. He's one of the top 25 starters in the game.

by Evan on Dec 10, 2007 11:40 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Also, just for fun, Tim's ZIPS projections for 2008:

Mean: 10-5, 3.28 ERA, 173 IP, 146 H, 67 BB, 173 K
Optimistic: 14-4, 2.58 ERA, 206 IP, 156 H, 72 BB, 230 K
Pessimistic: 6-6, 4.17 ERA, 138 IP, 130 H, 65 BB, 126 K

Even the pessimistic projection is not really that bad.

FWIW, here's Rios:

Mean: .293/.356/.488, 34 2B, 5 3B, 22 HR, 85 RBI, 47 BB, 98 K

no Optimistic/Pessimistic projections, unfortunately.
 

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Dec 10, 2007 12:12 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
The other thing to those numbers, can Alex Rios even put up the same numbers at the phone booth. The Skydome(I know its called something else, I don't care) is 328 down the line opposed to 339 at Pac Bell. Left Center(power alley) is 375 oppossed to 364 at Pac Bell. As far as Park factor, strangly Pac Bell was around 93, 94, 95 the first few season, but has been around 100, the last couple years, The skydome started the decade mostly around 104 and has been at 100 or above the last 6 years. I think its safe to assume that in Toronto Rios has more of a "hitters" park then what he would have at Pac Bell.

Take that and combined with the factor that In Toronto Rios had 4 other bats Hill(107), Glaus(120), Thomas(125), Stairs(138) with adjusted OPS over 100, compared to the Giants Anemic lineup, and its easy to see that Rios would have a hard time putting up the same numbers at Pac Bell.

The more I look at this trade the worst it gets.

Your 2010 NL rookie of the year,... Andy D'alessio

by ramirez415 on Dec 10, 2007 1:16 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
The more I look at this trade the worst it gets.

So true. For me, it's already passed "awful" and gone to "insane in a Jeffrey Dahmer kind of way".

***

Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Dec 10, 2007 1:36 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
I think if this trade is made, we might see Giants fans go insane in a Jeffrey Dahmer kind of way.

I don't remember being so pissed off about a potential trade since the Bond's trade rumours of the mid-to late 90's. And I used to hear idiots call into KNBR saying how we should trade Bonds.

Your 2010 NL rookie of the year,... Andy D'alessio

by ramirez415 on Dec 10, 2007 1:48 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Toronto is a real hitter's park, especially for right-handers. But the change in league would probably counterbalance the change in park.

by Evan on Dec 10, 2007 1:43 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
But isn't the A.L. more of a hitters league, so wouldn't that even be a third factor bringing his stats down even more in the N.L.? Especially playing the the N.L. west which is deep in picthing.
Your 2010 NL rookie of the year,... Andy D'alessio

by ramirez415 on Dec 10, 2007 1:50 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
It's not just that the AL is a hitter's league, it's that the overall level of competition is a lot higher. Hitters moving to the NL typically get a big boost in their stats (though not quite as big a boost as pitchers do, largely because of the DH).

I'm not sure what the "standard" adjustment is these days, though.

by Evan on Dec 10, 2007 2:21 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
There are no guarantees with Tim -- but he was clearly better at age 23 than Sandy Koufax was. Believe it or not, Sandy gave up homers at nearly twice the rate Tim did at 23.  Of course, it was Sandy's tremendous development beginning with 1961 and especially 1962 that made him special.

by sharksrog on Dec 10, 2007 3:53 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Sure he's a good pitcher now as (especially if one uses a measure that values strikeout pitchers) but with Halladay, Burnett and McGowan in the Jays rotation and the aging wonders of Thomas and Stairs as the best hitters after Rios for the Jays in 2007.

by Chris Taylor on Dec 10, 2007 12:49 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The Trade
Chris, thanks for your perspective. And yes Sabean has said on KNBR radio that he envisions Alexis as a CF. I watched him play some CF and he definitely can handle the position well. The deal has been at an impasse for days, would Toronto be willing to add either Brett Cecil or Adam Lind to this deal?

by wilriv21 on Dec 10, 2007 2:11 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Trade
From what I am reading, these discussions -- while fun -- haven't been on-point.  Viz http://www.thestar.com/article/282704

<blockquote>Ricciardi admitted that he has had multiple calls regarding Jays player-of-the-year Alex Rios. But he denied that he had talked with Cleveland or that talks with the Giants regarding their prized young starter Tim Lincecum were more than tire kicking.</blockquote>

While perhaps I am overly hopeful, it doesn't sound like there was ever all that much going on.

Here's hoping.

by wcw on Dec 10, 2007 2:25 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Trade
No problem, I've enjoyed this discussion, whilst waiting for some news about this. I think JP is playing his cards closer to the vest than Sabean. Thanks to all the Giants fans who've been more civil than I thought they might otherwise be given the emotion involved.

As for Lind/Cecil... I don't think giving up Lind is likely, as he'd probably play a major role if Rios is moved. I'm not sure about Cecil being someone JP would deal, but I can see JP willing to give up some young pitching back. Purcey (a LHP with more than a little potential) is a possibility. The other name I heard was Thigpen who could be a nice hitter and who doesn't quite fit into the Jays plans.

by Chris Taylor on Dec 10, 2007 4:52 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
My opinion is that if we trade Lincecum for anything other than a ridiculous package of players, we are going to greatly regret it. He's gonna be a beast (hell, he already is.)

Keep him.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Dec 10, 2007 12:04 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
If the Giants acquire Alex Rios, he could become the Giants' best right fielder since Ellis Burks.  If the Giants retain Tim Lincecum, he coul become their best pitcher since Juan Marichal.

Burks.  Marichal.  Burks.  Marichal.  Pretty easy decision, isn't it?

by sharksrog on Dec 10, 2007 12:37 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
I'm not going to bring up any past Giants CF (that'd be silly and blowing Rios way out of proportion) but there's no way Rios would be playing RF for the Giants. He'd be your CF. I think over looking this fact is making some Giants fans react badly. By the end of the year, he'd be mentioned in the same breath as Beltran. Beltran. That's better than Burks isn't it?

by Chris Taylor on Dec 10, 2007 12:53 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
No, it's about equal.  People forget how deadly Burks's bat was for how many years.  Now, Beltran plays a good CF, which makes up for his not hitting as well, but it doesn't put him over the top.
There's also not that much evidence that Rios can handle CF, aside from assertion.  I'd like to believe it if he were on my team, but the data tend to indicate that the move from RF to CF is harder than it appears.

by wcw on Dec 10, 2007 1:01 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Rios's defensive stats are pretty terrific. I don't doubt that he could play a pretty good center field. But there's not any significant difference between a pretty good center fielder and an outstanding right fielder, especially in AT&T.

by Evan on Dec 10, 2007 1:42 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Alex came up as a center fielder I believe.  I suspect he could play the position reasonably well -- perhaps better than any Giant except Rajai Davis.

Interestingly, though, the guy who first brought Alex to my attention five or six years ago thinks Alex is best suited for left field.

If the Giants DID trade for him, I would presume their three primary outfielders would be Rios, Winn and Schierholtz (with Roberts likely being #4, unless he were traded).

I would probably try to play Winn and Rios in right and center, since they are the fastest and most experienced outfielders and since center and right fields require the covering of the most ground at AT&T.  Rios' arm is much better than Winn's; hence, I would play Alex in right and Randy in center.  Nate Schierholtz also has a stronger arm than Winn -- but not the speed helpful to covering right field.

by sharksrog on Dec 10, 2007 3:59 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
I disagree.

If I thought Rios was going to turn into the next Burks, but with better defense and without the gimpy knees and trouble staying healthy, I'd trade for him.  Burks was a hair's breadth and some injury trouble away from being a bonafide superstar.  That's usually worth more than a potential Marichal, because for every one of him you have two to four equally promising arms flame out.  Position players are safer bets, and great position players win a lot of games for you.

Rios should have a nice little career, but I don't see him blossoming into a near-superstar.  That's my complaint about this trade -- that he probably doesn't have a chance to be as good as Burks.

by wcw on Dec 10, 2007 12:56 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Check out these numbers....

Strikeouts per nine innings pitched (career)
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/SOp9_career.shtml

Then theres Lincecum

http://firstinning.com/players/Tim-Lincecum-a/

He has a 9.24...his first year...at 23.

Career Leaders

  1.    Randy Johnson* (43)    10.776  
  2.    Kerry Wood (30)            10.327
  3.    Pedro Martinez (35)    10.199  
  4.    Nolan Ryan+             9.548
  5.    Johan Santana* (28)    9.497  
  6.    Sandy Koufax+*             9.278  
  7.    Jake Peavy (26)            9.022  
Then theres the kicker... Lincecum had 15.05 strikeouts per nine innings pitched in the minors. Thats right 15.05. He has some of the most dominant special stuff that has ever pitched in a Giants uniform. Trading this phenom for a 2 year all star reserve that is in his prime hitting 24 home runs a year? It would be the worst day of all of our lives.

by stevealbs on Dec 10, 2007 12:51 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
I'm probably just overthinking and overanalyzing thins, but with all the news we've gotten (reports that almost all of the Giants braintrust is against this except Sabean, fan opinion is almost entirely against it, media reaction is largely negative) I'm starting to feel like Sabean thinks this is going to be the new version of the trade that pretty much put him on the map (Williams for Kent). A largely unpopular trade, but one that works out in the end. Am I crazy for thinking that maybe this is the way Sabean is thinking? I mean, he basically said on the radio that this trade probably isn't a great idea for the Giants and yet he's still considering it.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Dec 10, 2007 1:04 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
That's one explanation. Another is that SEBEAN IS CRAZY!!!!1!1!!.
"They invented the All-Star game for Willie Mays" - Ted Williams

by Cookyman on Dec 10, 2007 1:37 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
the simplest explanation being the correct one.

Brian Sabean: Fucktard.

by nostocksjustbonds on Dec 10, 2007 4:49 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
I'll say this, as long as this trade doesn't go through this will make me feel better about our future.

With the all the rumors of trading Lincecum for Rios, it makes you appreciate just how could a Lincecum and Cain combo could be.

It's like filing for divorce and realizing how great you had it

Frandsen for 3B (til July 08)

by NeifiChicken on Dec 10, 2007 1:44 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
what is Lincecum's injury history? None that I can think of.

What is Rios's injury history? He fouled a ball off of his foot/leg in 2006 and spend a while on the DL with a staph infection. Yes, he recovered, but we're talking about risk.

So why does Lincecum, with little to no injury history to speak of, constitute a greater injury risk than Rios, who has an injury history? His motion?

If he did constitute such an injury risk, why the fuck did the Giants spend such a high pick on him in the draft? And what have they seen that has changed their minds?  

Brian Sabean: Fucktard.

by nostocksjustbonds on Dec 10, 2007 2:25 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
EXACTLY.  That's why I get spitting mad when people (like the Jays fan upthread) simply assume, in the face of no supporting evidence, that Lincecum will, within a year or two, have a bloody mass of twisted bone and frayed tendon where his right arm used to be.

It's just a stupid, lazy assertion; kindergarten-level googling will quickly reveal that his "wacky" pitching motion is expressly designed (and so far successful, knock on wood...not Kerry Wood, of course) to EASE the strain on his arm and its various components.

Another thing that pisses me off about the whole calculus of the proposed Rios trade is when folks start saying, well, Kurt Ainsworth didn't pan out, Jesse Foppert didn't pan out, you never know if prospects are gonna pan out.

Lincecum is different: HE'S ALREADY PANNING OUT.  He had the better part of a season to actually face acutal major league pitching and he DID VERY WELL.  This is not about trading potential for a "known quantity"; this is about trading someone who projects as a top 10-15 NL starter THIS YEAR (never mind the future).

The Ainsworth, Foppert, even Liriano comparisons are just silly.

Message to Sabean: It's the end of the day.

by juanboy on Dec 10, 2007 3:12 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
And when I say "face major league pitching," of course I mean "face major league hitting."  Clearly, we should trade Timmy based upon his disappointing production at the plate.
Message to Sabean: It's the end of the day.

by juanboy on Dec 10, 2007 3:16 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Hey, I think .093/.133/.116 is pretty good on this team!
"Just another ahahahaha... laugher."

by capnk on Dec 11, 2007 12:49 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Tim Lincecum has never had so much as a sore arm.  The day after he struck out 18 UCLA Bruins in a two-hit shutout, he comfortably threw long toss foul pole to foul pole, as was his wont.

Lincecum's motion is considered about as good mechanically as they come by no less an authority than Will Carroll (author of the book "Saving the Pitcher").  Watching Lincecum's delivery, it is clear that his usage of his total body takes strain off his arm.

Any pitcher can get hurt.  All evidence -- aside from Tim's small stature -- indicates that he is likely at a rather high percentile of likely injury avoidance.

by sharksrog on Dec 10, 2007 4:09 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Was there any truth to Lincecum injuring his right calf toward the end of last season?  

I was listing to a game on knbr where John Miller was announcing the game.  He described Lincecum as groaning after a pitch.  Right after that Bochy and Rags came out to check on him and determined he was fine.  Lincecum went on to pitch a couple more innings that night.  

If I remember correctly Lincecum was shut down a few starts later.  The Giants said they shut him down because Lineceum had already thrown 177 innings including his time at AAA Fresno.  I thought this was odd because the club never showed any caution with Cain concerning innings.  Cain threw 192 innings between the bigs and AAA in 2005 when he was only 20 years old.  Why be so cautious with Lincecum when he 3 years older?

by Cainer on Dec 10, 2007 4:48 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
I remember that injury.  It didn't cause Tim to leave the game, so I think it was more like a cramp.

by sharksrog on Dec 10, 2007 8:36 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Fouling a ball off a leg and getting an infection isn't exactly something that is an on going thing. A little guy whose motion scares the bejesus out of many folks who make their living judging this stuff, that's an on going problem.

Oddly enough, Lincecum doesn't scare JP/the Jays, who commented the other day that they looked into Lincecum in 2006 in the hopes that he'd fall to the Jays (apparently if the Giants hadn't drafted him, he would have).  

by Chris Taylor on Dec 10, 2007 4:56 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
It's a no-brainer (and with the the retarded Magowan clan that scares me to write):

#1 potential SP (with shut-down closer potential) under control for 5 years are VERY rare.

25 HR-15 SB corner OF under control for 2-3 years are NOT nearly as rare.

The got the the Bonds cash, so to me the best move they could make is sign Fukudome.

by Glasscock on Dec 10, 2007 3:31 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
The lack of news or updates is KILLING me.  The only people that want this trade to happen are Blue Jays and Fodger fans.  That alone should say something to Sabean.
Hitler was a Dodgers fan.

by The Nick on Dec 10, 2007 4:21 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I'm being quite manic myself.
I was spoiled on the winter meeting rumor mill.

by Sigualicious on Dec 11, 2007 1:16 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
December 4, 2007, 02:16 AM ET
Blind Quotes From the Winter Meetings

by Joe Sheehan

First in an occasional series...

Scene: Cal Ripken, Steve Finley and Jim Leyritz are sitting on a couch in the Opryland hotel.

Observer: "All that's missing is Brian Sabean and a pen."

by Glasscock on Dec 10, 2007 4:31 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
you cant take this site's comparisons seriously

i looked up Noah Lowry and his 2nd highest comparison was none other than Erik Bedard

yeah...not so much

http://hardcoresfgiants.blogspot.com

by Frogger91w9 on Dec 10, 2007 9:19 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Alex Rios Similarity Scores...
I have my own utility that creates Similarity Scores for players.  Just plug in the stats and the categories you'd like to use in your similarity score and you get a similarity score for any given two players.  My utility adjusts for park factors.  It does not take age/injury into consideration and is only comparing stats for one season.  I compared Alex Rios with a handful of RFers, and used 2008 ZIPS projections as input.  The three stats I used were HR/AB, K/AB and BB/AB.  Of the RFers I plugged in, here is the list (in order) of most comparable current RFers in the game based on 2008 projections.  I cherry picked only a few RFers.
  1. Shawn Green
  2. Magglio Ordonez
  3. Jose Guillen
  4. Matt Kemp
----- Big drop off to ----
  1. Victor Diaz
  2. Luke Scott
  3. Vladimir Guerrero
  4. Bobby Abreu
vr, Xeifrank
Sadaharu Oh - 868 HRs

by Xeifrank on Dec 10, 2007 11:32 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

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