Rajai: Dancing like a freak
by Grant Brisbee on Dec 10, 2007 9:33 AM PST
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PrintIn the darkest recesses of my brain, there's a part of me that understands the argument for trading Tim Lincecum. I think it's stored in the same part of the lobe as the full lyrics to "My Posse's on Broadway." When I was in full froth mode after the first Rios rumor, I looked up Rios's similarity scores on Baseball Reference. Aha!, I cried:
2. Rondell White (964)
3. Bernie Williams (963)
4. Mel Hall (960)
5. Roy Weatherly (958)
6. Dan Ford (958)
7. Coco Crisp (957)
8. Harry Lumley (954)
9. Tito Francona (953)
10. Shannon Stewart (953)
2. Mark Lemongello (976)
3. Tommy Hughes (976)
4. Scott Kazmir (976)
5. Mike Witt (974)
6. Jack Fisher (973)
7. Pete Falcone (972)
8. Don Sutton (971) *
9. Bert Cunningham (970)
10. Jerry Walker (969)
Some of the more logical arguments for the Rios/Lincecum swap are based in this fear of young pitching. When I dig back through old STATS, Inc. Minor League Scouting Notebooks, it seems like 50% of the best prospects flame out. For every C.C. Sabathia, there's a Ryan Anderson. For every Roy Oswalt, there's a Jon Rauch (who has carved out a relief niche, but still....) The percentage increases as it moves down the list from the great prospects to the really good. Guys like Kurt Ainsworth and Mario Ramos seem to drop out of sight at a 75% rate, but for the purposes of Lincecum we'll go with the first batch. Note that all of these percentages were pulled directly from my nether regions, which makes this mostly anecdotal.
Rios is good. He could be great. If he develops like the Giants think he will, the Giants would probably sign him to a fat extension and build the team around him, so the service time issue is more fiscal than logistical. It wouldn't be a fair return for Lincecum, but at least the Giants would be getting a good young player back; it isn't as if they're dangling Lincecum for Orlando Cabrera.
My reasoning against almost any Lincecum trade, though, is based on abject fear. Here are two scenarios of failure:
- Scenario 1 - The trade does not go through. Lincecum goes the way of Foppert, and the Giants never get Lincecum to reach his potential.
- Scenario 2 - The trade goes through. Rios doesn't improve, and while he remains a nice player to have, he is certainly isn't a star. Lincecum wins eight Cy Youngs for Toronto, takes them to three World Series, Canadian school children start getting Lincecum's Birthday off as a holiday, and a newly discovered species of moose is named for him.
If the second scenario happens, we all die alone and miserable.
I'm scared of the second scenario. I want to be loved. Therefore, Lincecum stays.
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Cain vs. Lincecum
Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy
Re: Cain vs. Lincecum
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
by Mordy From Monsey on Dec 10, 2007 9:34 AM PST reply actions
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
I like this one much better than it's converse.
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
I feel like I have to ask.
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
by Grant Brisbee on Dec 10, 2007 9:44 AM PST up reply actions
Re: I had no choice.
Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
No matter how you slice it, his minor-league stats do not portend much more with the bat than he is showing right now. Now, mid-800s OPS with great speed and defense makes for a nice RF, the kind the Giants mostly have lacked. However, Roberto Clemente (age-26 OPS+: 148) he and his age-26 OPS+ of 122 just plain ain't.
"My Posse's on Broadway"
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
I think about it this way:
Well, first, I don't get the All-Star thing. So Rios was a non-starting All-Star, twice. Big deal. He couldn't hold a candle to most of the starting AS outfielders. Everything with him is based on potential, which is quite ironic, considering that his minor league stats don't really project him to be all that and a bag of chips. Has he hit his ceiling? It's quite possible.
Swisher is the better player in just about every category that should matter to the Giants, is nicely controllable and the same age as Rios, has reached the 35 HR plateau at a young age and actually demonstrated that thing known as "pure power", and he's still about 12 rungs down the ladder from what I would want in exchange for Lincecum. Bear in mind, it's maybe a 15-rung ladder.
A trade I would take? Lincecum for Nick Swisher, Kurt Suzuki, and Bobby Crosby might come close. I think I'd want a minor league 3B thrown in though.
Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy
Re: I think about it this way:
Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy
Re: I think about it this way:
2006
Pre All-Star: .330/.383/.585 15hrs, 20 2bs
Post All-Star: .261/.297/.411 2hrs, 13 2bs
Re: I think about it this way:
Rios in '07:
.297/.354/.498
Randy Winn in '07:
.300/.353/.445
Pedro Feliz in '04:
.276/.305/.485
Combine the best of Randy Winn and Pedro Feliz and you get Alex Rios. Sad but true. Felizian power = 24 HR in 643 at-bats. That's the kind of power Alex Rios posted last year.
Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
The Yankees have confirmed, and the Giants have never denied, that talks on Matsui are underway. It is very possible that the "mystery team" in the Fukudome sweepstakes is the Giants. Sure, 3 years at $12 million per for a 30 year-old Japanese RF with pop and a good RF glove is a risk, as is sending Sanchez to the Yankees for Matsui and his $12 million per.
But if you started next season with a Matsui/Winn/Fukudome outfield with Schierholtz and Davis as reserves (Roberts and Lewis would be packaged elsewhere), and used these other pieces to fill in the 3B/1B needs, you could have a new batting order AND Zito/Cain/Lincecum/Lowry/Correia?
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
by lincysgiants on Dec 10, 2007 12:16 PM PST up reply actions
Re: Lowry as dowry
by NearestNorwich on Dec 10, 2007 5:55 PM PST up reply actions
Re: Lowry as dowry
by lincysgiants on Dec 10, 2007 7:41 PM PST up reply actions
Re: Lowry as dowry
Sanchez right now is outperforming what a likely sandwich pick and a later-round throwin are likely to be doing in ~2013. Performance now is worth a lot more than possible performance in a half-decade. So Sanchez or Lowry for Matsui is a huge win on value for the Yankees, even though neither may be a win on talent.
For the same reason, Matsui for Durham or Roberts or (here we go into pure fanboy fantasy) both of them, or (beyond the valley of the fanboy fantasy) Zito is a win for the Giants, because those players are way overpaid, versus Matsui's slightly overpaid, and those players are going to be underperformers at their positions, versus Matsui's adequate performance.
If I'm Sabean and I know Matsui is available because of the need to swing Damon over, and I know the Yankees have a ton of cash and need some pitching, I am selling the heck out of Zito. We bought high because we thought we were going to the Series. Now our team is punk and we need to rebuild. His 2007 was a fluke underperforming year. You need a great lefty like him in Yankees stadium. Etc etc etc.
It'll never happen, because unlike Sabean, Cashman is not an idiot.
That's why he's after Sanchez or Lowry. Even if whichever one he gets blows up, it's still a win. If instead the traded pitcher breaks out, it's a double win.
Re: Lowry as dowry
Re: Lowry as dowry
by NearestNorwich on Dec 11, 2007 5:50 AM PST up reply actions
Re: Lowry as dowry
In the abstract, Lowry is a great commodity. He's a lefty, he's cheap, he's got a decent ERA, he may not be a #1 starter -- but he might turn into a #2 if you squint and look at his college numbers. But we have to sell him now, before he has a real chance to break out, because we need hitting. You're getting a real deal here, because I like you..
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
I'd be happy to trade Durham for Matsui, say.
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Anyway, as I've said before, I could deal with that. Hell, a heart of the order that went Fukudome/Matsui/Molina actually wouldn't be THAT embarrassing. I mean it's bad, but not historically bad or anything. And maybe we could find a way to unload Durham to free a spot for Franny at 2B and then go on to pick up Iwamura from the Rays. That would at least give the local media an angle other than "OMG TEH JINTS SUX"
by Smoke on the Water on Dec 10, 2007 10:26 AM PST up reply actions
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
by Sigualicious on Dec 10, 2007 12:06 PM PST up reply actions
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Foppert, Anderson, and Rauch were always more about stuff than results.
Lincecum for Rios is a bad idea.
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Lincecumgello just sounds...ew. And where is Rajau dancing like a freak?
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Dec 10, 2007 10:20 AM PST reply actions
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
On the def side. The girlies see his booty, and their knees get weak.
Larry Baer is the white guy; people think he's funny. He's an executive VP, and he spends a lot of money.
by Grant Brisbee on Dec 10, 2007 10:29 AM PST up reply actions
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Strikeouts per innings pitched (career)
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/SOp9_career.shtml
Then theres Lincecum
http://firstinning.com/players/Tim-Lincecum-a/
He has a 9.24...his first year...at 23.
Career Leaders
1. Randy Johnson* (43) 10.776
2. Kerry Wood (30) 10.327
3. Pedro Martinez (35) 10.199
4. Nolan Ryan+ 9.548
5. Johan Santana* (28) 9.497
6. Sandy Koufax+* 9.278
7. Jake Peavy (26) 9.022
Then theres the kicker... Lincecum had 15.05 strikeouts per nine innings pitched in the minors. Thats right 15.05. He has some of the most dominant special stuff that has ever pitched in a Giants uniform. Trading this phenom for a 2 year all star reserve that is in his prime hitting 24 home runs a year? It would be the worst day of all of our lives.
Love what you did with...
Re: Limoncello>Lemongello
Infinitely better than Lemongello. Although Lemongello is Monty Hall's son, so maybe he would make a good GM :-) "I'll take what's behind door number 3 "
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
There's not anotha team with less points scored
We don't walk around like criminals or flex like big gorillas
My homeboy Rajai Davis is a teenage lady killa
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
The Giants have some interest in veteran outfielder Luis Gonzalez of the Dodgers. -- OC Register
Noooooooooooooooo!!!
And No to Swisher deal as well, but Yes to D Willis deal for Sanchez/Prospect
by Boytrickery1 on Dec 10, 2007 10:40 AM PST reply actions
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
by nostocksjustbonds on Dec 10, 2007 10:48 AM PST up reply actions
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy
Giants TV Deal
SF Giants buy into cable station
The Giants will announce a much longer deal that changes the dynamics of their cable/satellite distribution. The Giants have bought an interest in Fox Sports Net Bay Area. The team and station will say it's a long-term deal. The Chronicle has learned the deal covers 25 years. The Giants' stake in the station is believed to be in the 20-30 percent range. Earlier this year, Comcast purchased a 60 percent share of FSNBA, with Fox keeping a 40 percent interest. So, the Giants are one of three owners of FSNBA, which will take on the Comcast name in April. -- SF Chronicle
Hopefully this creates extra revenue that the Giants can use on a Zito Extension
by Boytrickery1 on Dec 10, 2007 10:44 AM PST reply actions
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
My favorite player as a kid, when I first fell in love with this team was Will Clark, for me "The Thrill" was god's gift to this 8 year old's baseball heart. But when we brought in barry Bonds I relized, Clark was a real good player, maybe even great, but now where near as good as I had thought he was.
Now I look at Rios's numbers, and they are blown away by Clarks numbers. And I realize, what the hell is Sabean thinking trying to trade our future Cy Young, for this guy?
Just stop with this damn speculation already Brian, tell them no, this team needs more then Alex Rios, and even needs more then Will Clark.
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
And back, before that even, when we could just watch the kid deal, and enjoy it?
Man, Lincecum is the ONLY player that I've ever gone to a minor league game to see.
Don't trade him. At all. I'm sick of this on-paper crappola, even though I've taken part in it. I just want to watch the kids play.
Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
I don't think you can find a good stat on Rios that puts him in the top 10 among hitters in anything good.
People seem to think that Rios is going to hit 30 HR, but his HR/FB ratio is only about the rate that pitchers give up it at, 10%, so unless his FB% rate goes up tremendously, he's not going to hit 30, in fact, he'd be hard pressed to get mid-20's again as he was over 10% (much over in 2006).
And I like to note that in his first pretty much full season, he could only manage 1 HR in 400-some odd ABs, so it is not like he's a natural at hitting homers, whereas Lincecum and Cain are doing things at 22 that most pitchers today and yesterday aren't doing.
About the comparisons, I would also like to note that it is based on things like IP and other things that are not pertinent to a pitcher's key indicators, this was built long ago before studies found that K/9, K/BB, BB/9 were key indicators of pitching skills, I think that a saber-updated similarity score would yield different comps for Cain and Linecum. Particularly since a 4.00 ERA today is a very good ERA whereas only 20 years ago, 4.00 ERA would be very ordinary, like the comps there.
Say, anybody with a BP subscription can share PECOTA's comp for Cain and Lincecum?
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Dec 10, 2007 10:51 AM PST reply actions
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Tim's TOP THREE are Francisco Rodriguez, Kerry Wood, and Pedro Martinez. Nolan Ryan is #5. Koufax, Eckersley, Tom Gordon, and Al Downing are also in the top 20
KEEP THEM!!!!
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Basically, these lists tell us these guys have the potential to peak very, very high -- but that most pitchers who fit their profile don't reach that peak, and quite a few of them fizzle out pretty quickly.
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Matt's top 20 are: John Smoltz, Jim Nash, Pete Broberg, Andy Benes, Josh Beckett, Gary Bell, Moe Drabowsky, Alex Fernandez, Stan Williams, Jaret Wright, Art Mahaffey, Jim Maloney, Bill Gullickson, Wayne Simpson, Dick Drott, Larry Dierker, Bart Johnson, Jeremy Bonderman, Gary Nolan and Ray Culp.
These comps are from last winter, so they don't include this past season's performances.
The top pitchers in the comps are naturally Martinez, Nolan, Eckersley and Koufax for Lincecum and Smoltz and Beckett for Cain. Kerry Wood likely would have been a top-notch comp for Lincecum had he been able to stay healthy. With a career ERA of just 2.37, Rodriguez is a pretty good comp for Lincecum, as well.
Perhaps the respective ceilings of Lincecum and Cain are ironically indicated by Lincecum's comp of Nolan Ryan and Cain's comp of Gary Nolan.
There You Go Again!
by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 10, 2007 2:47 PM PST up reply actions
Re: There You Go Again!
You make accusations that you can't begin to back up -- because they are erroneous.
Why not just make your (sometimes good, sometimes foolish) points and lay off the editorial remarks?
I think you are a bright guy. I also think you are blinded by your desire to show that what I say is wrong.
Why not build yourself up through the strength of your own remarks, rather than trying to tear down mine?
I am perfectly willing to stand on and behind my remarks. I'm not always right -- but I'm usually in the ballpark.
And I don't go around accusing genuine people of being disingenuous.
Rios for Lincecum.
You forgot scenario 3. Rios goes to the Giants, plays CF (which he'd do) throws out runners aplenty with his amazing arm and makes catches in the gap (his speed is better than is SB statistics show). Lincecum becomes AJ Burnett lite with his goofy delivery after blowing out his arm in May 2008.
This seems the most likely scenario.
Since the Jays need offense, not pitching and are in a win now mode (Lincecum's value is in the future, not now, which is why he's closer to a prospect than the player that Rios is) with Burnett and Glaus leaving soon.
Rios keeps getting better as he puts on more muscle mass (as he has the last two seasons). The guy has a ton of power. He'd be a better CF than the Jays incumbent who is in CF because he's a well liked guy with a big contract and a gold glove.
Rios broke out in 2006 then had a strange infection, lost muscle mass. He came back in the first half of 2007 then the Home Run Derby messed up his swing (OPS .870 with 17 home runs at the break) which happens (although I'm not surprised he nearly won, I'm surprised he lost, the guy kills balls to the 5th deck at the dome in BP).
Lastly, Rios' minor league stats do have something impressive in them if you know how to read them and know his history. He doesn't have enough AAA AB to matter (he was promoted out of AA)... but his full year at AA he put up a .919 OPS in a pitchers park.
At first I didn't mind the deal when I heard it, but now I hope it doesn't go through out of spite because I've read so much unwarranted criticism of Rios. That Sabean is considering this deal is the first evidence I've had that he might be an intelligent GM.
by Chris Taylor on Dec 10, 2007 11:08 AM PST reply actions
Re: Rios for Lincecum.
However, we can all read minor-league stats. Rios's are good, like he is, but no more. He has 2,159 minor-league ABs at a 736 OPS. Yes, those mostly were young for his level (Sallie League at 20, FSL at 21, Eastern League at 22) and in fair or pitchers environments, but it's still a 736 OPS.
As an example, Rios OPSd 752 in the FSL at age 21. That's a good showing at a youngish age in a pitcher's league. Ellis Burks, who some see as Rios's blue-sky upside was also in the FSL and only OPSd 702. At age 19. In low-offense 1984.
I'd trade Lowry or Sanchez for him in about three seconds flat. Under other circumstances, I might even trade a potentially great pitcher for him, since pitchers blow up. I just don't see the point of doing it now. Why add a good hitter to a team that won't content? The player types you add now are those who might be great starting in three years, not in 2008 through '10.
Re: Rios for Lincecum.
by Chris Taylor on Dec 10, 2007 12:37 PM PST up reply actions
Re: Rios for Lincecum.
As I said, I like Rios. I would, however, wager dollars to donuts that in ten years it'll be clear that he wasn't the hitter Eillis Burks turned out to be.
Re: Rios for Lincecum.
You forgot scenario 3. Rios goes to the Giants, plays CF (which he'd do) throws out runners aplenty with his amazing arm and makes catches in the gap (his speed is better than is SB statistics show). Lincecum becomes AJ Burnett lite with his goofy delivery after blowing out his arm in May 2008.This seems the most likely scenario.
I smell Blue Jay fan doo-doo. But seriously, there's a scene in the Planet Earth documentary where a great white shark leaps out of the water to just completely destroy a seal. That's kind of what I picture sharksrog doing, literally, which in this case, means not actually, but, like, with words, when he sees your above quote.
Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy
Re: Rios for Lincecum.
Seriously, it would make my day to see Lou Seal eaten by a shark. Gooooooooood times.
Re: Rios for Lincecum.
by UnleashTheGore on Dec 11, 2007 9:04 AM PST up reply actions
Re: Rios for Lincecum.
Seriously, my day has been brightened at LEAST ten fold!
Re: Rios for Lincecum.
Also, even if the deal is not done, I'd put my chips on Linececum blowing his arm out and becoming AJ lite. Not that there's anything wrong with that as AJ is an incredible pitcher. He's just got a rebuilt elbow and those are wonky.
by Chris Taylor on Dec 10, 2007 12:41 PM PST up reply actions
Re: Rios for Lincecum.
Re: Rios for Lincecum.
But hey, you're doing the exact opposite.
The point of not wanting to trade Rios has nothing to do with thinking Rios sucks. Maybe in a vacuum, it's a fair deal, I don't know. But you add Rios to the current Giants lineup and take Lincecum out of the current Giants rotation... well, I think that's a much worse Giants team overall than it was in 2006. And I don't see any point in making any moves that continue to make us worse than we were last year... we're already worse than that, we need to be moving forward.
relative value
So, setting aside risk, Lincecum is worth closer to two Alex Rioses than to one. However, you can't set aside risk. What sort of discount rate bump do you give a pitcher? You could thereby make this an even swap in present value terms.
That begs the question, though -- should the GIants be going for performance certainty, or taking risks seeking greatness? To my mind, the saving grace of being a bad team is that you can take lots of risks. Certainty doesn't matter, since the downside of a blowup is a few extra losses in a disappointing year. It's years in which you might make the playoffs that those extra few losses spell the difference.
In years like this, you don't trade potential greats unless you get other potential greats back. Lincecum for Bruce and Cueto? Heck, yeah. Just not for Rios.
Re: relative value
by Chris Taylor on Dec 10, 2007 12:42 PM PST up reply actions
Re: relative value
I'd really just rather not trade Lincecum at all OH MAKE THE SPECULATION STOP.
Re: relative value
Now, Rios and Snider, that would tempt me. Probably not enough to pull the trigger, but that's more because I really like watching Lincecum pitch than because it's a bad trade.
Re: relative value
I don't know if the $30 million and $50 million are net of what the poster expected the player to be paid, but if not, Tim's lower salary for the next three years should tilt the scales even further in his favor.
I think the trade in Giants history most comparable to the proposed Lincecum-for-Rios deal would be Cepeda for Sadecki. Ray was a fine pitcher, but didn't have the ceiling Orlando had. Because he was coming off serious knee surgery, Orlando was the greater risk.
Orlando was traded from the Giants' top area of strength (first base) for their top area of need (pitching, as it has been most of the San Francisco portion of their history). Now the strength is young starting pitching, and the weakness is hitting.
Lincecum for Rios could work out much better than Cepeda for Sadecki. It could also work out worse.
Re: Rios for Lincecum.
My second evidence that Sabean might be an intelligent GM came when he made the Matt Williams trade. Because of my dad's faith in Brian, I never worried about the trade -- and indeed it turned out to be one of Brian's best.
It seems, however, that the game has been passing Brian by to an extent. While Brian can't be blamed for ruining the Giants farm system (It was already horrible when he took it over.), he can be blamed for belatedly improving it. The farm system really didn't begin to come together until the 2005 draft of Lincecum. 2005 was Sabean's ninth season as GM.
Perhaps much of the blame lies above Brian, but as the general manager, he is the one who is directly responsible for the mess the Giants now find themselves in. Now in 11 seasons as GM, Brian has yet to draft and develop a single position player of distinction.
The Giants appear to have turned their farm system around beginning with 2005. If Brian had done so after the 2002 World Series, as Theo Epstein did when he took over as GM of the Red Sox, the Giants could have been a competitive team last year -- and even more importantly now, this season.
As it is, Brian will likely be forced to write off the remainder of this decade, meaning he was pretty darn good from 2000-2004, and pretty horrible since.
Re: Rios for Lincecum.
What is your evidence (non-Lincecum division) that he did anything of value in 2005-2006?
I mean, we can all agree that Lincecum was a great pick... but one pick does not redeem a farm system.
Re: Rios for Lincecum.
by nostocksjustbonds on Dec 10, 2007 2:17 PM PST up reply actions
Re: Rios for Lincecum.
AH, that was the alarm bell going off in my head. Good, it means I didn't leave the oven on or something.
But question remains - and this is true even considering the "good" drafts of 01-03 netting us Lowry/Cain.
That's not enough. 3 starting pitchers, even though perhaps elite, is not farm system development.
Can all this really be explained by lack of picks in 04/05? I kinda doubt it
Re: Rios for Lincecum.
Re: Rios for Lincecum.
Re: Rios for Lincecum.
Re: Rios for Lincecum.
Re: Rios for Lincecum.
Re: Rios for Lincecum.
Re: Rios for Lincecum.
Re: Rios for Lincecum.
You're right when you said the 2005 draft, or lack of draft, for the Giants was horrible. 2005 might go down as the best draft class in the past 20 years and our team got nothing out of it.
Re: Rios for Lincecum.
Just looking at the names the Giants could have had at #22 (Ellsbury, Garza, Rasmus) or #34 (Buck, Hochevar, Buchholz) -- those were the Benitez picks -- makes a fella nauseated. Even #70 (Matheny) could have turned into Slowey, Escobar or Owings.
Ugh.
Re: Rios for Lincecum.
Re: Rios for Lincecum.
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Last year, Lincecum's xFIP would have placed him eighth in the NL. He's one of the top 25 starters in the game.
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Mean: 10-5, 3.28 ERA, 173 IP, 146 H, 67 BB, 173 K
Optimistic: 14-4, 2.58 ERA, 206 IP, 156 H, 72 BB, 230 K
Pessimistic: 6-6, 4.17 ERA, 138 IP, 130 H, 65 BB, 126 K
Even the pessimistic projection is not really that bad.
FWIW, here's Rios:
Mean: .293/.356/.488, 34 2B, 5 3B, 22 HR, 85 RBI, 47 BB, 98 K
no Optimistic/Pessimistic projections, unfortunately.
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Take that and combined with the factor that In Toronto Rios had 4 other bats Hill(107), Glaus(120), Thomas(125), Stairs(138) with adjusted OPS over 100, compared to the Giants Anemic lineup, and its easy to see that Rios would have a hard time putting up the same numbers at Pac Bell.
The more I look at this trade the worst it gets.
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
The more I look at this trade the worst it gets.
So true. For me, it's already passed "awful" and gone to "insane in a Jeffrey Dahmer kind of way".
Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
I don't remember being so pissed off about a potential trade since the Bond's trade rumours of the mid-to late 90's. And I used to hear idiots call into KNBR saying how we should trade Bonds.
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
I'm not sure what the "standard" adjustment is these days, though.
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
by Chris Taylor on Dec 10, 2007 12:49 PM PST up reply actions
The Trade
Re: The Trade
<blockquote>Ricciardi admitted that he has had multiple calls regarding Jays player-of-the-year Alex Rios. But he denied that he had talked with Cleveland or that talks with the Giants regarding their prized young starter Tim Lincecum were more than tire kicking.</blockquote>
While perhaps I am overly hopeful, it doesn't sound like there was ever all that much going on.
Here's hoping.
Re: The Trade
As for Lind/Cecil... I don't think giving up Lind is likely, as he'd probably play a major role if Rios is moved. I'm not sure about Cecil being someone JP would deal, but I can see JP willing to give up some young pitching back. Purcey (a LHP with more than a little potential) is a possibility. The other name I heard was Thigpen who could be a nice hitter and who doesn't quite fit into the Jays plans.
by Chris Taylor on Dec 10, 2007 4:52 PM PST up reply actions
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Keep him.
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Burks. Marichal. Burks. Marichal. Pretty easy decision, isn't it?
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
by Chris Taylor on Dec 10, 2007 12:53 PM PST up reply actions
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
There's also not that much evidence that Rios can handle CF, aside from assertion. I'd like to believe it if he were on my team, but the data tend to indicate that the move from RF to CF is harder than it appears.
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Interestingly, though, the guy who first brought Alex to my attention five or six years ago thinks Alex is best suited for left field.
If the Giants DID trade for him, I would presume their three primary outfielders would be Rios, Winn and Schierholtz (with Roberts likely being #4, unless he were traded).
I would probably try to play Winn and Rios in right and center, since they are the fastest and most experienced outfielders and since center and right fields require the covering of the most ground at AT&T. Rios' arm is much better than Winn's; hence, I would play Alex in right and Randy in center. Nate Schierholtz also has a stronger arm than Winn -- but not the speed helpful to covering right field.
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
If I thought Rios was going to turn into the next Burks, but with better defense and without the gimpy knees and trouble staying healthy, I'd trade for him. Burks was a hair's breadth and some injury trouble away from being a bonafide superstar. That's usually worth more than a potential Marichal, because for every one of him you have two to four equally promising arms flame out. Position players are safer bets, and great position players win a lot of games for you.
Rios should have a nice little career, but I don't see him blossoming into a near-superstar. That's my complaint about this trade -- that he probably doesn't have a chance to be as good as Burks.
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Strikeouts per nine innings pitched (career)
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/SOp9_career.shtml
Then theres Lincecum
http://firstinning.com/players/Tim-Lincecum-a/
He has a 9.24...his first year...at 23.
Career Leaders
- Randy Johnson* (43) 10.776
- Kerry Wood (30) 10.327
- Pedro Martinez (35) 10.199
- Nolan Ryan+ 9.548
- Johan Santana* (28) 9.497
- Sandy Koufax+* 9.278
- Jake Peavy (26) 9.022
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
by nostocksjustbonds on Dec 10, 2007 4:49 PM PST up reply actions
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
With the all the rumors of trading Lincecum for Rios, it makes you appreciate just how could a Lincecum and Cain combo could be.
It's like filing for divorce and realizing how great you had it
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
What is Rios's injury history? He fouled a ball off of his foot/leg in 2006 and spend a while on the DL with a staph infection. Yes, he recovered, but we're talking about risk.
So why does Lincecum, with little to no injury history to speak of, constitute a greater injury risk than Rios, who has an injury history? His motion?
If he did constitute such an injury risk, why the fuck did the Giants spend such a high pick on him in the draft? And what have they seen that has changed their minds?
by nostocksjustbonds on Dec 10, 2007 2:25 PM PST reply actions
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
It's just a stupid, lazy assertion; kindergarten-level googling will quickly reveal that his "wacky" pitching motion is expressly designed (and so far successful, knock on wood...not Kerry Wood, of course) to EASE the strain on his arm and its various components.
Another thing that pisses me off about the whole calculus of the proposed Rios trade is when folks start saying, well, Kurt Ainsworth didn't pan out, Jesse Foppert didn't pan out, you never know if prospects are gonna pan out.
Lincecum is different: HE'S ALREADY PANNING OUT. He had the better part of a season to actually face acutal major league pitching and he DID VERY WELL. This is not about trading potential for a "known quantity"; this is about trading someone who projects as a top 10-15 NL starter THIS YEAR (never mind the future).
The Ainsworth, Foppert, even Liriano comparisons are just silly.
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Lincecum's motion is considered about as good mechanically as they come by no less an authority than Will Carroll (author of the book "Saving the Pitcher"). Watching Lincecum's delivery, it is clear that his usage of his total body takes strain off his arm.
Any pitcher can get hurt. All evidence -- aside from Tim's small stature -- indicates that he is likely at a rather high percentile of likely injury avoidance.
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
I was listing to a game on knbr where John Miller was announcing the game. He described Lincecum as groaning after a pitch. Right after that Bochy and Rags came out to check on him and determined he was fine. Lincecum went on to pitch a couple more innings that night.
If I remember correctly Lincecum was shut down a few starts later. The Giants said they shut him down because Lineceum had already thrown 177 innings including his time at AAA Fresno. I thought this was odd because the club never showed any caution with Cain concerning innings. Cain threw 192 innings between the bigs and AAA in 2005 when he was only 20 years old. Why be so cautious with Lincecum when he 3 years older?
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Oddly enough, Lincecum doesn't scare JP/the Jays, who commented the other day that they looked into Lincecum in 2006 in the hopes that he'd fall to the Jays (apparently if the Giants hadn't drafted him, he would have).
by Chris Taylor on Dec 10, 2007 4:56 PM PST up reply actions
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
#1 potential SP (with shut-down closer potential) under control for 5 years are VERY rare.
25 HR-15 SB corner OF under control for 2-3 years are NOT nearly as rare.
The got the the Bonds cash, so to me the best move they could make is sign Fukudome.
by Glasscock on Dec 10, 2007 3:31 PM PST reply actions
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
I'm being quite manic myself.
by Sigualicious on Dec 11, 2007 1:16 PM PST up reply actions
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
Blind Quotes From the Winter Meetings
by Joe Sheehan
First in an occasional series...
Scene: Cal Ripken, Steve Finley and Jim Leyritz are sitting on a couch in the Opryland hotel.
Observer: "All that's missing is Brian Sabean and a pen."
by Glasscock on Dec 10, 2007 4:31 PM PST reply actions
Re: Rajai: Dancing like a freak
i looked up Noah Lowry and his 2nd highest comparison was none other than Erik Bedard
yeah...not so much
by Frogger91w9 on Dec 10, 2007 9:19 PM PST reply actions
Alex Rios Similarity Scores...
- Shawn Green
- Magglio Ordonez
- Jose Guillen
- Matt Kemp
- Victor Diaz
- Luke Scott
- Vladimir Guerrero
- Bobby Abreu
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