Late Night
It almost seems like most of the rumors that pop up are a function of the rumormonger's own educated guesses. The Giants need power and they love them some old-timey players; therefore, Mike Lowell was on the team's short list for a while. Until Sabean exhibits a different method of roster construction, you can't blame a writer for resorting to that kind of guesstimation.
So let me count the ways I love this article in the Mercury News:
- In past mailbags for sfgiants.com, Chris Haft has thrown out a bunch of third baseman possibilities in no particular order. Take this one, for example. Haft drops Eric Hinske, Morgan Ensberg, Troy Glaus, Akinori Iwamura, Ian Stewart, Ty Wigginton, and Travis Metcalf in a single response. It's interesting reading, but it's hard to discern the author speculation from the front office whispers. In the Mercury News article, though, only one name is mentioned:
Unless Feliz's agents lower their demands, the Giants will look to the trade arena for a third baseman, with the Indians' Andy Marte a strong possibility. Because Marte is out of minor league options, Cleveland might not trade him until spring training.Marte might be more Ben Grieve than Phil Nevin, but it's the philosophy behind the suggestion that makes me giddy. The Giants' goal should be simple: controllable players with potential to be cheap stars. Marte's trade value has never been lower, but he's still a player who put up a .275/.372/.506 line as a 21-year-old in AAA. That kind of potential beats whatever Feliz, Mike Lamb, or Mike Lowell could offer to the franchise as it is currently constructed.
- Here's another beautiful passage:
(Sabean) reiterated that he wouldn't shy away from acquiring players for major roles who haven't proven themselves at the major league level - a remarkable shift after years of denying opportunities to the Giants' own prospects so the team could surround Barry Bonds with veteran free agents.When I put on my mock-GM Underoos and pretend like I know what I'm doing, I'll bring up names like Marte or Lastings Milledge or Brandon Wood without ever stopping to consider if Sabean would even care about such unproven players. It seems intuitive to think that if there isn't power worth paying for on the free-agent market, you might might have to buy power on spec. But this is the first indication that Sabean might agree.
- About Cain and Lincecum:
"We have to listen; that's our job after finishing in last place," Sabean said. "But I'd be in shock if there's something as good as what their future brings.That seems to be the consensus opinion: Never say never...but pretty much never. It's nice to read Sabean lay it out in such explicit terms.
- Something I didn't expect:
(Sabean) has talked with Manager Bruce Bochy about moving Randy Winn back to centerfield (from right).Awesome. Winn is a valuable player in center. He's an adequate player in right. If the Giants hope to get some power, they can't commit to having Winn in a corner. They have to be flexible. That they're even considering a move is a great sign.
- Again, here's something that seems intuitive, but you never know....
The Giants still have a few veterans on unattractive contracts that appear to have little place in a youth movement, but Sabean has found minimal interest in Roberts, Ray Durham or Rich Aurilia.It makes sense that Sabean would prop up Roberts, Durham, and Aurilia next to the Danielle Steel novels and aerobics VHS tapes at the great Giants' garage sale of aught-seven, but this is the first time it's been explicitly brought up. I still think Roberts would be of use to some teams -- and worth a prospect or two -- if the Giants ate a chunk of salary.
- Crazy talk:
One rival GM said he believes Sabean would forgo free agents, perhaps redirecting portions of the major league payroll to the club's scouting and player development budget.Wha? Can you imagine an '08 draft in which the Giants pick up the crazy demands of first-round bonus babies (Rick Porcello, Stephen Drew, Jered Weaver, etc...), and buy out the college commitments of several hard to sign players in rounds two through 30? It makes so much more sense than throwing $18M at David Riske.
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Re: Late Night
One rival GM said he believes Sabean would forgo free agents, perhaps redirecting portions of the major league payroll to the club's scouting and player development budget.
That rival was Ned Colletti and he's just being nice.
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I mean what's the budget line item here? $5M/year? $20M/year? Would doubling it help? I can't imagine you could do more than hire a couple young stud execs for a couple mill. While it's "real" money, it's chump change in the payroll budget. Who would we be forgoeing?
Unless they are going to scout women? (That's not a joke).
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Marte, please!
You and me both, Grant. You and me both.
On that note, have a great weekend. GM meetings start next week!
by Giant Fan in Singapore on Nov 30, 2007 1:19 AM PST reply actions
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The door is open to show me otherwise.
by Armz Dealer on Nov 30, 2007 1:26 AM PST reply actions
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Still, it's good to hear that he's at least paying lip-service to the lunatic fringe.
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Unless lowering demands means a 2M contract to be a backup, I don't wanna hear it
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by Smotheredinhugs on Nov 30, 2007 5:56 AM PST reply actions
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Is there a shelter for abused fans?
by Lyle @ McCovey Chronicles on Nov 30, 2007 6:08 AM PST reply actions
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The reality is, e were going young last year and then signed Roberts, Durham and Aurilla. So dont believe anything until things start happening. Sorry.
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by Boytrickery1 on Nov 30, 2007 7:00 AM PST reply actions
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I don't think there's any way they would have accepted a Lowry-centered deal over what they got (especially now that they got Morlan in the deal as well.)
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Morlan is another Pichardo: interesting arm, great numbers in high A, and a long way away.
Garza throws hard, but his numbers thus far aren't any better than Lowry's, he's not that much younger, and Lowry's cost-controlled for a while, so Lowry + cash/fungible reliever would seem a fair equivalent.
The Young deal is the kind the Giants needed to be in on. If the rest of the league says Cain/Lincecum, remind them where the now-big chips in the Pierzynski trade came from.
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http://firstinning.com/players/Noah-Lowry-a/
vs
http://firstinning.com/players/Matt-Garza-a/
Lowry Garza
Age BB/PA K/PA BB/PA K/PA
23 AAA 7.30% 18.90% 7.70% 23.70%
23 MLB 7.20% 18.60% 8.70% 18.30%
Yes, Lowry's 26 now and had really weak peripherals last year. Garza, on the other hand, has 133 total MLB IP at a 4.5 ERA, vs Lowry's 618 at a 4 ERA.
I'd say these are two equivalents in present value, but with very different likely paths. Lowry's probably at his peak, but he may well continue for a half-decade or so, though perhaps he flames out or gets injured. Garza could break out and be a star, but probabilities are against him. More likely, he flames out or gets injured himself. Trading him is something I love for the Twins: his upside is limited to #3 starter, his downside is out if baseball. Young's upside is superstar; his downside is major-league regular.
Given the Rays obvious overvaluation of a pitching prospect, you'd think the Giants could put together something as good or better than Garza. Not Lowry? Sanchez plus Hennessey, say. That's a potential star and an adequate reliever.
by wcw on Dec 1, 2007 4:18 PM PST up reply actions
Garza's upside is not a #3
Sure the Giants could've put something as good together or better than Garza. Its called Lincecum or Cain.
by awesomer @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 2, 2007 4:50 AM PST up reply actions
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by daveinexile on Nov 30, 2007 12:15 PM PST up reply actions
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$.02
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(Sabean) reiterated that he wouldn't shy away from acquiring players for major roles who haven't proven themselves at the major league level - a remarkable shift after years of denying opportunities to the Giants' own prospects so the team could surround Barry Bonds with veteran free agents.
Snort. What prospects? What players? Sabean has not shown EVER that he can evaluate hitting talent. Ever.
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Giants days, though... No argument here!
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Well, it's hard to say what level of responsibility he had for "recognizing" their talent.
Jeter I guess was a good draft pick (picked after such notables as Jeffrey Hammonds and Phil Nevin).
Giants picked 7th in 1992... CALVIN MURRAY. Oh, what might have been.
Posada I might have to give you ... 24th round draft pick! Although that kinda has to be luck, otherwise he would have taken him earlier.
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Seriously, I'd love to be able to argue the point with you, but there's no evidence to really have the foundation for a contrary position. Those two are it, and the remarkable drafts we've had for years speak volumes. But then again, we haven't had one of our own hitting prospects rise to the top - for the Giants, as opposed to say, for the Red Sox - since approximately the 80s. Which I don't quite get. How does one organization have such a horrid track record? That spans multiple GMs AND even ownerships! So how does something like that happen?
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As demonstrated by the total inability to repeat it.
What no love for Glenallen Hill?
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I'm not supporting this philosophy, just pointing out why there were no more moves like the Kent trade. It was all about cost certainty with them. The uncertainty of prospects was not conducive to their "win now" attitude.
There's a lot wrong with the philosophy and I'm not defending it. But it explains the Giants current situation and more importantly it shows that Sabean might not be completely inept.
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Of course, getting Lastings Milledge would have been a good start...
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OK - I agree that lack of more Kents is not strong evidence, but Kent was still luck.
There is no earthly way anyone could predict that "underrated" Jeff Kent at age 28 was going to turn into the "borderline HOFer" Jeff Kent age 30-34.
And note that his first year with SF he hit a non-awe-inspiring .250/.316/.472 (OPS+ 105).
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Brian belatedly said that the Giants needed more OBP. But then he went out and signed Jose Vizcaino.
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Fair enough.
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D. Young
Official Website
So reportedly the Devils asked for Lincy, but Garza seems closer to Lowry than Lincecum to me. And you're right, I could be underestimating the SS in deal, Bartlett and Harris.
by Boytrickery1 on Nov 30, 2007 11:26 AM PST reply actions
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How do you spell Feliz?
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For example: Winston Abreu was released from the Nationals despite 26 K's against 9 walks in 30 MLB innings last season. He ran into some tater trouble, but that's to be expected of a rookie. He has a sparkling minor-league resume. For a league-minimum contract, those numbers look to me like a potential setup man in the Giants' bullpen.
That guy could be had right now with a phone call.
Of course, the A's already beat us to Chris Lubanski, Wes Bankston, Chris Gissell, and some other freely-available prospects off the release heap. That's the difference between Oakland and SF in a nutshell, I guess.
by drelmoraisin on Nov 30, 2007 11:34 AM PST reply actions
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I was particularly jazzed by the Winn to CF talk, not because Winn is more valuable there than RF (which he is), but because that probably means two things: 1) that Schierholtz will be given the opportunity (along with Freddy Lewis too but I'm rooting for Nate) to win the RF spot and 2) that Rajai Davis is not starting in CF as some sportswriters had speculated (yeah, hard to tell when it's really info or just the writer's ill-wrought guesses). And I wrote this based on the newspaper version which only notes the Winn to CF, not the on-line one that mentions Nate and Fred.
And of course I'm jazzed like everyone (OK, I guess not QUITE everyone) else that Lincecum and Cain are pretty much untouchable unless the other team ponies up a lot. Plus, it's good to know that Sabean took a lot of factors into consideration about why Cabrera might not be such a good acquisition, particularly that he probably wouldn't sign an extension and would go free agent.
Yeah, you always have to take some of what Sabean says with a grain of salt, but a lot of fans here have blinders on with regards to Sabean, and would take every opportunity to take potshots at him. There is strategy (getting younger) and there is tactics (you get the old vet because there's no young prospect ready to play the position and you should be trying to win when you are paying Barry $20M to play), for example. Would fans rather see the younger Royce Clayton manning SS for us, or older Omar Vizquel?
And good point by poster above about this being a game played out in public in terms of negotiations. For all we know, the Giants rumors are being floated out there by the selling team wanting Lincecum. The Giants prefer negotiations in stealth mode, so any leaks usually is from the other side of the table to try to drum up business from other teams.
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Nov 30, 2007 11:50 AM PST reply actions
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On the other hand, abandoning the newspaper feels a little like shooting a dodo. Okay, I might not be the one who shoots the actual last dodo, but I'm still contributing to their impending extinction.
That ended up more than only slightly OT. Sorry.
by EliminateMe on Nov 30, 2007 12:55 PM PST up reply actions
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Dude, where's my Milledge?
Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy
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Maybe all the other GMs really can't see past the big two pitchers. Seems odd, though.
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The sad part is that Ryan Church is a better hitting than Winn or any other current Giant.
So, we probably COULDN'T have matched DC's offer!
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Church: .271.348.473
Winn: .282/.338/.429
Oh, and is 5 years younger, and plays for ML minimum.
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Well done.
Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy
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by NearestNorwich on Nov 30, 2007 8:49 PM PST up reply actions
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Whining About Cabrera
Sabean should do everything possible to acquire Cabrera so that the Giants could have some sort of centerpiece to build anything from. The Giants have absolutely nothing other than their two pitching prospects. The Giants' hopeless farm system is void of talent. Is Sabean the guy responsible for the Giants' miserable farm system?
The Giants are a last place team that will be staring up the butts of the rival Dodgers for a long time to Lincecum.
Beinfest is simply doing his job as one of the best MLB GMs, trying to get the best deal in his situation. Sabean's public whining serves no purpose other than to keep in practice for all the public whining that he'll be doing whilst the Giants get continually beat. That is, until he gets properly fired.
by Longfellow on Dec 1, 2007 7:14 AM PST reply actions
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by howtheyscored on Dec 1, 2007 10:28 AM PST up reply actions
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The Marlins taking Durham (albeit we eat $4M+ of his salary) as a useful fourth player in the deal is not inconceivable. Durham may be done, but what if he bounces back to .260 with power. That's possible, and allows the Fish to move Uggla to third.
I'm staying open -- although anxious. No more Michael Tuckers, no more Pedro Feliz, not even Andy Marte. If we're gonna trade, let's get guys who actually show signs of life (like Delmon Young, fer gawd sakes!)
There is no mcab without tim or matt
Also I don't see what the infatuation is with Bengie on this site. He pretty much is an average catcher at best in his decline who couldn't get on base 3/10 of the time last season.
Also why would the Marlins move Uggla to third, that kills so much of his value. If anything they'd trade him before they resorted to that.
Also if Durham is a 4th player in the mcab deal, what are your 3 players? Lowry, Sanchez and Villalona? Cause the Marlins would laugh you off the phone with that offer.
by awesomer @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 1, 2007 12:12 PM PST up reply actions
What value?
What value are you talking about? Is he going to low his hitting touch? Are they going to place him lower in batting order? Will he only play on odd days? Isn't this dependent on who plays 2 and how it compliments his team?
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Brian Sabean gave up three good pitchers for a player in A.J. Pierzynski that he lost in a single year. He likely shouldn't give up even more for two years of Miguel Cabrera.
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The Angels both need Cabrera and can afford him. They give up one of their 6 SPs, their 2bman - and then replace him with Figgins (who otherwise would be without a position), and 2 minor leaguers. Good players all, but their loss creates no holes in their roster - and they can plug in Cabrera either before or after Vlad.
The Giants roster is getting better but it is not deep. Giving up Linc creates an unfillable hole (for a #1 starter) and the deal is exceedingly unlikely to get done without him. Losing Henn, Sanchez, Correia, Misch creates pretty large holes in RP and SP. That is too many losses. Losing Lewis is OK, as he can be replaced. Same with Lowry or ONE of Henn, Correai, Sanchez, but only one.
Finally, no one has talked about the effect of hitting in the NL west and hitting in the Giants lineup (ie, no protection and the pitched around factor) would have on Cabrera's production.
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Sunflower seeds. Bobblehead dolls. Used jars of Vap-o-Rub. The Braves system is stocked with reasonable trades for Dave Roberts.
by Grant Brisbee on Dec 2, 2007 1:01 PM PST up reply actions
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by howtheyscored on Dec 3, 2007 2:08 AM PST up reply actions
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by Grant Brisbee on Dec 3, 2007 9:39 AM PST up reply actions
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And when I say there is none, I mean there is a certain amount.
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So what we are left with is exactly what Sabean said over the weekend: a pursuit this week of younger players to fill several positions to go along with the guys we already have for several of them.

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