Hall Monitor
Part I of a XVII-part miniseries -- Shiny Baubles We Can Get For Noah Lowry, or SBWCGFNL, or subwacguhfinil -- will begin in a moment. I wanted to get something out of the way first.
A lot of the talk about trading Noah Lowry on this site has been unfair. Most of the readers on this site make me sick when it comes to this topic, as a lot of you would trade Lowry...but only for someone under 30. What kind of ageist crap is that? I thought the point is to get good players -- players who can help a team win. Just because someone isn't in their 20s anymore, doesn't mean that they stop being useful or productive. A lot of players hit their peak in the 30s. Luis Gonzalez, for example. That other guy, with the hat, for another example.
The Giants should look at anyone who can help. This notion that a player has to be under 30 to be of use to an organization is ludicrous. And offensive. And against everything this country stands for. Age is just a number; it does not speak to the quality of the individual. One minute, you're advocating that a team doesn't acquire anyone over 30, and the next minute you're throwing a Molotov cocktail into a women's suffrage meeting. It's a slippery slope. Think about it.
With that off my chest, here's a look at a twenty-something player the Giants should think about acquiring in a Noah Lowry deal:
Why it makes sense for the Brewers:
The Brewers had Hall at short, but moved him to center to make room for J.J. Hardy. Hall had a terrible year, though, and he plays center like a good athlete just learning the position. The Brewers need pitching more than they need a center fielder who hit like Hall last year. They can take a chance that Hall will rebound and earn his eventual $8.4M salary in 2010, or they can move him to a team with extra pitching.
Why it makes sense for the Giants:
The Giants can't pay retail; they have to go to the outlet store. They don't have the chips or the scratch to get a young superstar coming off a fantastic season -- a Miguel Cabrera. They should be focusing on young players who are locked up for the future, but whose 2007 performance might have made them expendable. Hall can play a league-average shortstop -- think Rich Aurilia during his first run with the Giants -- and he probably isn't as bad as he was in 2007. He probably isn't as good as he was in 2006. Something in the middle would still fill a huge gap for the Giants.
Something that I'm going to include in every post about Noah Lowry's trade value:
A link to a list of free agent pitchers. Kip Wells...Kyle Loshe...Josh Fogg.... That's assuming a team doesn't want to pay through the nose for superstars like Bartolo Colon, Carlos Silva, and Jason Jennings.
Something at which I'm terrible:
Accurately assessing trade value. Would the Brewers have to kick something in? Would the Giants? Does a one-for-one trade work? Dunno.
Why it won't happen:
It'd probably make more sense for the Brewers to hope for a rebound from Hall and the starting pitchers they already have, like David Bush and Chris Capuano.
How the Giants can sweeten the pot:
A (mostly) free Dave Roberts. The Brewers were the runners-up in the Roberts sweepstakes. They might want him to replace Hall if they could get Roberts at a 50% discount. Win-win. Except for the Brewers. That's a minor point.
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Re: Hall Monitor
by orangeandblackattack on Oct 31, 2007 11:31 AM PDT reply actions
Re: Hall Monitor
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Oct 31, 2007 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions
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Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy
Re: Hall Monitor
by lunaticfringe1 on Oct 31, 2007 12:04 PM PDT reply actions
A GM who's trying...too hard
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I finished in 6th (out of 8). Some say it's because I got lazy and stopped caring with 3 weeks left to play. I still think it was because I dropped Hall.
Moral: Bill Hall is a winner. I'm in!
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Rebuilding Blocks
Beats the pants off the usual around here -- a blockhead third base prospect.
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by Mark carry on on Oct 31, 2007 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions
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That said, I'd like to take a shot at someone younger, less proven, but with a bigger upside. You've got to figure somebody out there needs a middle of the rotation lefty and has some decent position prospect blocked by a superstar. I mean really, it's not like we have to be picky or anything, I'd just like to be able to delude myself into thinking we'd gotten something REALLY good.
by Smoke on the Water on Oct 31, 2007 2:00 PM PDT up reply actions
Re: Hall Monitor
Lowry is not as durable as Jennings was at the time the Rockies traded him, but he is younger, cheaper, and a lefty. Both have problems with walks.
Re: Hall Monitor
by Grant Brisbee on Oct 31, 2007 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions
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I'm sure most of them would think Matt Cain for Bill Hall was a fair trade and even then some would object.
by orangeandblackattack on Oct 31, 2007 5:30 PM PDT up reply actions
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by howtheyscored on Oct 31, 2007 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions
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You sir, are a genius. I'll take that deal. Have you contacted the Giants FO ? I hear they are looking for some "speed and defense" oriented staff :-)"How the Giants can sweeten the pot: A (mostly) free Dave Roberts. The Brewers were the runners-up in the Roberts sweepstakes. They might want him to replace Hall if they could get Roberts at a 50% discount. Win-win."
Re: Hall Monitor
by joemac on Oct 31, 2007 1:57 PM PDT reply actions
Re: Hall Monitor
I might trade a Correia or Sanchez for him (obv. YMMV if you think these guys are going to be better than Lowry for the next 4 years)
Re: Hall Monitor
by howtheyscored on Oct 31, 2007 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions
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by howtheyscored on Oct 31, 2007 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions
Re: Hall Monitor
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Oct 31, 2007 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions
Re: Hall Monitor
Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy
Re: Hall Monitor
Re: Hall Monitor
I must admit, I didn't really "read" the opening paragraph. You kind of lost me with the
"One minute, you're advocating that a team doesn't acquire anyone over 30, and the next minute you're throwing a Molotov cocktail into a women's suffrage meeting. It's a slippery slope. Think about it":-)
Re: Hall Monitor
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by howtheyscored on Oct 31, 2007 3:35 PM PDT up reply actions
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Who's with me?
by Grant Brisbee on Nov 1, 2007 8:34 AM PDT up reply actions
Re: Hall Monitor
by howtheyscored on Nov 1, 2007 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions
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Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy
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I'm in the running for one the "older" posters here. That is so sad.
Don't you know "50" is the new "30" :-)
Re: Hall Monitor
Bush and Capuano were good starters last year and have a good chance to rebound. If I'm the Brewers my priorities are in building up the pen (finding a replacement for Cordero who will be overpaid, etc.) and finding a left handed platoon partner for Mench in LF.
Truthfully, taking on Dave Roberts for half of his salary and giving up nothing makes some sense for the Brewers here.
Mench can kill lefties and Roberts hits a good line against right handed pitching and brings speed.
Re: Hall Monitor
by NeifiChicken on Oct 31, 2007 2:27 PM PDT up reply actions
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by Moderation on Oct 31, 2007 3:23 PM PDT reply actions
Re: Hall Monitor
by NeifiChicken on Oct 31, 2007 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions
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I also like the idea of giving away Roberts for free. What a bum
Re: Hall Monitor
by Moderation on Oct 31, 2007 5:31 PM PDT up reply actions
Why do the Angels need pitching?
They have 2 ace type pitchers, AND 2 league average innings eater type pitchers. This is ignoring Ervin Santana who had a bad year this year, but was above average in 2006, and who will be only 25 next year.
Why do the Angels need Lowry again?
Re: Hall Monitor
I can't stop laughing at all the double-entendres in that line. Well played!
Re: Hall Monitor
by howtheyscored on Nov 2, 2007 10:23 AM PDT up reply actions
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There isn't much in the Brewers minor-league cupboard, though, especially after the Linebrink trade. It isn't as if they would give up Hall and Manny Parra.
Hall and Shouse for Lowry and Taschner? Bring the Special Agent home!
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Oct 31, 2007 3:39 PM PDT reply actions
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by nick @ McCovey Chronicles on Oct 31, 2007 4:53 PM PDT up reply actions
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BP had him at like 10 runs below average or just a couple of ticks above replacement level.
by orangeandblackattack on Oct 31, 2007 6:36 PM PDT up reply actions
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In 2006, Chris Dial's system had him as a -1 at shortstop.
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Trade Noah Lowry for Bill Hall (low level prospects go either way to make it work)
Trade Benji and Jonathan Sanchez to the Mets for Philip Humber
Trade Ray Durham (5 mil) to Minnesota or Japan for ice or rice
Trade Dave Roberts (3 mil) and Travis Blackley for Nick Johnson
Sign Alex Rodriguez 10/300
Lineup:
CF Rajai Davis
LF Randy Winn (S)
1B Nick Johnson (L)
3B Alex Rodriguez
SS Bill Hall
RF Nate Schierholtz (L)
C Eliezer Alfonzo
2B Kevin Frandsen
Bench:
1B/OF Dan Ortmeir
OF Fred Lewis
IF Eugenio Velez
IF Rich Aurilia
C Guillermo Rodriguez
Rotation:
Matt Cain
Barry Zito (L)
Tim Lincecum
Philip Humber
Kevin Correia
Bullpen:
Steve Kline (L)
Pat Misch (L)
Vinnie Chulk
Ryan Messenger
Tyler Walker
Brad Hennesey
Brian Wilson
Crunching some numbers this team should be around $95-98 million. If Johnson, Hall bounce back and Rajai can do .270/.360/50 sb leadoff and Schierholtz can do .280/20/85 in the 6th spot, who knows???
And by the time Cain and Lincecum get around to FA, hopefully the payroll could go up to $120 or so.
Re: Hall Monitor
Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy
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As to Nick Johnson. He's a big question mark, but then again I guess that's part of why we could get him for nothing. His 2008 salary is only 5 mil which is only a drop in the bucket. I assume we can make sure that he'll actually be able to play prior to making a trade. Then the question becomes, what is the effect of taking a whole year off baseball? What impact does this have on a player's skills?
by orangeandblackattack on Nov 1, 2007 8:53 AM PDT up reply actions
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Really........enough of the Nick Johnson scenarios.
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Best case scenario is that he reverts to previous form in which case he's worth 15 wins and costs 10 million. That's 600K per win. This is similar to the value you get for signing players in the draft -- without having to use a pick or waiting for player maturation. On the free agent market you're looking at about 3 million per win.
by orangeandblackattack on Nov 1, 2007 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions
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I'm just wondering because whenever I think low risk/high reward, my mind tends to default to "league minimum." I know this isn't and can't always be the case, but when do you think the money factor moves into higher risk zones?
by howtheyscored on Nov 1, 2007 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions
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Personally I'd say it's just as likely that he plays at career average for the next two years as that he can't play at all. Therefore he stays a good investment.
by orangeandblackattack on Nov 1, 2007 11:43 AM PDT up reply actions
Re: Hall Monitor
They also note that his hitting had improved every year until then. And in public, their Mgr and GM both say he is the CF next year.
Chisox are also looking for a CF (but is Hall a CF?) and Brewers fans hope for a Garland trade.
In theory, I like the observation that Giants could trade for Hall now, and then decide later where he fields. That was the approach with Aurilia, and whoopee it worked out great, especially after we got Klesko and Pedro also.

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