Stop Laughing....
What would it take for the Giants to get into the World Series next year?
Hey, don't get all judgmental on me for asking the question. Don't..HEY, I'M NOT HIGH. Or drunk. Even if I were drunk -- say, before noon from a delicious nine-year bourbon with caramel undertones and a hint of smoke, feeling guilty about drinking before noon on a weekday, but explaining it away with the "reward" defense, as in, I did well on my midterm today, so I deserve to sit furtively in the back of the train car clutching a bottle in a brown paper bag, though, at some subconscious level, I know that's just an excuse for doing the only thing I know that will help me think and write optimistic thoughts about the Giants -- it wouldn't change the validity of the question.
Ahem.
My thoughts:
- Right now, the Giants have a rotation that is capable of getting them to the World Series. Josh Fogg wouldn't sniff the top four of this rotation, and I'd take Cain and Lincecum over every non-Francis in the Colorado rotation for sure, and probably over Francis too. I think the Giants have a more balanced rotation than Cleveland did, and the Indians were only one win from the Series. The Red Sox have a rotation that is pretty formidable; it would take either Cain or Lincecum to progress to a Josh Beckett-level next year to compare, and that is far from a given. Still, I think the Giants' rotation matches up well with most teams in baseball.
- I have no problem ignoring the bullpen question, as random arms emerge every season for whatever teams make the World Series. Other than Jonathan Pabelbon and maybe Brian Fuentes, name one reliever for either World Series team on whom you would have put $5 to have a quality season this year. Exactly. Brian Wilson is the next Manny Corpas, and whatever cadaver the Giants sign is the next Matt Herges. Maybe. Probably not. But stay with me, now....
- Considering the above two points, the Giants are about an average offense and a little luck away from contention.
I know the Giants are as close to an average offense as a complimentary bag of honey-roasted peanuts is to a 747. That minor detail has not gone unnoticed.
I know that any offseason acquisitions to improve the offense will come at the expense of this rotation that, as currently constructed, I claim matches up well with the rest of baseball. And that kind of invalidates the entire first point.
I'm just saying that if the Giants were magically bequeathed an average offense, it wouldn't be completely crazy to hope for them to be the Rockies of 2008. Not likely, but not completely crazy.
My definition of "magically bequeathed": Nate Schierholtz hits 30 homers, the Giants make a lopsided offseason trade, whatever free-agent mistake the Giants make has a career year, Kevin Frandsen exceeds expectations, Bengie Molina hits for even more power, and fifteen of the sixteen center fielders on the roster have fantastic seasons.
Not likely. Not even remotely likely. But not once-in-a-generation implausible.
"So you're telling me there's a chance...."
Comment starter: Forgetting my definition of "magically bequeathed" and substituting your own, do you think the Giants could reach the World Series with the current roster + an average offense? Or would it take an above-average offense and the current pitching staff?
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Re: Stop Laughing....
I seldom like Grant's writing, but that one made me chuckle.
As for the question, for an average offense + the current pitching staff to get to the WS, a LOT of things would have to go right/lucky, but it could happen.
by Goofus on Oct 24, 2007 1:42 PM PDT 0 recs
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by southcitysteve on Oct 24, 2007 1:50 PM PDT 0 recs
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by southcitysteve on
Oct 24, 2007 1:51 PM PDT
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by jasomack on
Oct 25, 2007 10:38 AM PDT
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Re: Stop Laughing....
I think we are close to having the best starting rotation in the league. Maturity/experience/consistent offense will do a lot to make this happen.
The bullpen should be fine. Wilson may develop into a solid closer. He has the stuff for it.
So in short: Arod + AJones + Aurilia/Durham/whoever unregressing to their norms = playoffs.
Playoffs + winning 7 games = World Series.
by positiveuphemism on Oct 24, 2007 1:53 PM PDT 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
I should add that saying the word "pythagorean" always makes me start talking like Daffy Duck.
by Evan on Oct 24, 2007 1:56 PM PDT 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
The problem is getting to 763 runs. That, basically, translates to 3 more runs per week. Without Bonds, it is hard to see how the OF will score more than the '07 OF. It is also hard to see how the '08 IF will not score significantly more runs than the '07 IF. Frandsen, assuming he hits like Sep is a huge improvement over Durham ('07 vintage), but that is probably only 25 runs over the season. Ort could outproduce our multi-layered 1B platoon, say 12 runs. SS is likely to be the same. That is only 37 of the 80 additional runs needed. And virtually all of those have to come from 3b. 3B may give us 15-20, but the rest are going to have to come from defense and the pen.
by allfrank on
Oct 24, 2007 10:00 PM PDT
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Re: Stop Laughing....
by jponry on Oct 24, 2007 1:58 PM PDT 0 recs
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by rotorueter on
Oct 24, 2007 2:19 PM PDT
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Re: Stop Laughing....
-If we had two Brian Wilsons in the bullpen (say if Randy Messenger morphed into Wilson2.0)
-If Nate hits .280+ with 25 HR
-If Randy Winn hits just like he did this year
-If Bengie Molina hits just like he did this year
-If Omar returns, maintains stellar defense, and hits no worse than this year
-If Rajai becomes the main lead-off guy and maintains a .375 OBP
-If Kevin Frandsen bats 2nd, plays 2nd, and hits the .285 I think he can, with occasional power
-If Sabean magically trades Lowry/Sanchez/Misch (no more than 2 of those guys) for a power-hitting corner infielder
-If the remaining corner infielder (Feliz, Ortmeier) can be semi-league-average offensively (okay, if Dan can be that)
-If Durham will happily be our super pinch-hitter
-If Dave Roberts accepts a trade, anywhere, for anyone (and I like him, we just don't need him)
-If the remaining Lowry/Sanchez/Misch pitcher doesn't suck while in the rotation with Cain, Lincecum, Zicasso, & Whomever
Well, yeah, sure, we could contend. And I could date Jessica Alba next year. But my wife thinks both ideas are hilarious, and highly unlikely.
What is more likely, imho, is that Brian Sabean solves the Giants' problems by signing an expensive FA relief pitcher like Linebrink, buries Rajai and Freddie on the bench in favor of Roberts, trades Sanchez and Henry Sosa for Corey Koskie, and names Cammie Blackstone as the replacement Assistant GM.
by Lyle on Oct 24, 2007 1:58 PM PDT 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
It'll take an above average offense, IMO. Pretty much every team in the NL West is in a better position to contend than we are right now, and it'd take some amazing moves by Sabean to get us anywhere close to them.
LA has some ridiculously good young talent, and they can trade some of it for premier players that could instantly make them World Series favorites.
The Rockies are emerging as a solid team with an unbelievable offense, and some decent pitchers might actually not mind going to pitch for them, if they feel the Rockies could make another run.
Arizona, well, they have a crapload of talent and can get a premier player easily . . .making them serious players for the NL West crown once again.
San Diego . . .oh. Well, they're not that good. They're kind of like us, just, you know, with a good bullpen and a more developed pitching staff.
So while we might be able to improve on what we had this past year, and most likely will, it's more likely for the other NL West clubs to make deals that'll get them to the Playoffs faster than it would for us.
by Anticon23 on Oct 24, 2007 2:02 PM PDT 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
by howtheyscored on
Oct 24, 2007 2:42 PM PDT
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by Jakespaar on
Oct 24, 2007 3:53 PM PDT
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Re: Stop Laughing....
> not that good. They're kind of
> like us
Now that The Big Guy is gone, I can't think of a Giant I'd bet don't have a better season at the plate than Mr. Anger (Bradley) or Spicoli (Green), not to mention Adrian Gonzales.
Plus, we're not EN FUEGO!! (sorry - couldn't resist).
by SnowLeopard on
Oct 24, 2007 7:26 PM PDT
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Re: Stop Laughing....
Roberts must be moved
Davis must perform to at least a .350+ OBP
Schierholtz/Lewis have to step it up, they will be crucial
Molina must repeat offensively
Frandsen must be around .275/.330/.390
If Vizquel's brought back he's got to be similar to Frandsen offensively
Feliz must be .250+.300.470, and I don't think this is impossible either
And Sabean's got to get creative to bring in a power theat at 1B.
by cain1rstballothof on Oct 24, 2007 2:11 PM PDT 0 recs
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by Kitspool on Oct 24, 2007 2:16 PM PDT 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
Darryl > Ryan by a thousand million. Well, anyone is better than Ryan, but Darryl is made of awesome to begin with. Major upgrade for Kelly.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on
Oct 24, 2007 2:34 PM PDT
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by groug on
Oct 24, 2007 2:39 PM PDT
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by Natto on
Oct 24, 2007 2:40 PM PDT
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by Goofus on
Oct 24, 2007 2:43 PM PDT
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by UnleashTheGore on
Oct 24, 2007 2:46 PM PDT
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by BaronVonCurrentEvents on
Oct 24, 2007 3:00 PM PDT
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Re: Stop Laughing....
Of course the answer was simple: it was taking up space on the TIVO and we were in the midst of an uneventful Friday evening.
by UnleashTheGore on
Oct 24, 2007 3:25 PM PDT
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Re: Stop Laughing....
Also, the word "electrolytes" now makes me giggle to myself.
by groug on
Oct 24, 2007 3:30 PM PDT
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by Goofus on
Oct 24, 2007 3:02 PM PDT
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by Goofus on
Oct 24, 2007 3:04 PM PDT
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Re: Stop Laughing....
- Ryan is one of the head writers. So he's basically making himself a douche, it's pretty funny.
- Kelly is a producer. Still don't know what they do. But her fashion/trends obsessions crack me up, made funnier by the fact that she's probably brighter than her character.
by JRPhillips on
Oct 24, 2007 3:32 PM PDT
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by groug on
Oct 24, 2007 3:37 PM PDT
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by BaronVonCurrentEvents on
Oct 24, 2007 4:03 PM PDT
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by UnleashTheGore on
Oct 24, 2007 3:20 PM PDT
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by JRPhillips on
Oct 24, 2007 3:34 PM PDT
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by UnleashTheGore on
Oct 24, 2007 3:48 PM PDT
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Re: Stop Laughing....
And yes, AD was better than The Office. For my money, it was the best comedy since Seinfeld. I still mourn its passing.
by JRPhillips on
Oct 24, 2007 4:00 PM PDT
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Re: Stop Laughing....
Seriously, though, I'm about the biggest Seinfeld nut there is, and after watching AD I go back and forth between which was better. Seinfeld found humor in every-day behavior, but AD is so damn clever.
by UnleashTheGore on
Oct 24, 2007 4:09 PM PDT
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I rule them equal.
Had AD been on longer it would win, but 2.5 seasons of awesome is not as good as 5 seasons of awesome.
But...
Seinfeld doesn't really get going till season 3. The first two seasons aren't special at all. Even season 3 is just pretty good. Seasons 4 is where it became awesome. AD was awesome from episode one.
There is one other show that I feel ranks up there with those two...Red Dwarf. The first six seasons are as good as anything.
by positiveuphemism on
Oct 24, 2007 4:18 PM PDT
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It's crazy to me that Fox has ended so many great shows in recent memory. They might not have gotten the mass appeal they'd like, but imagine if they had AD, Undeclared, Firefly, Andy Richter Controls the Universe, and Greg the Bunny as some flagship shows. I miss them all. I particularly miss A Magician Named GOB.
by JRPhillips on
Oct 24, 2007 4:54 PM PDT
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by UnleashTheGore on
Oct 25, 2007 7:16 AM PDT
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by JRPhillips on
Oct 25, 2007 11:07 AM PDT
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by oldjacket on
Oct 24, 2007 4:47 PM PDT
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I used to hate his character, and Kelly too. Now I love when Ryan shows up, because he gets owned every single time he's on camera. Kelly torturing him is one of my new favorite things about the Office.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on
Oct 24, 2007 3:06 PM PDT
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by UnleashTheGore on
Oct 24, 2007 3:23 PM PDT
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by BaronVonCurrentEvents on
Oct 24, 2007 4:08 PM PDT
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by Goofus on
Oct 24, 2007 3:48 PM PDT
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by UnleashTheGore on
Oct 24, 2007 3:50 PM PDT
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by UnleashTheGore on
Oct 24, 2007 3:53 PM PDT
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by UnleashTheGore on
Oct 24, 2007 4:00 PM PDT
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Re: Stop Laughing....
It makes sense to me.
by groug on
Oct 24, 2007 3:27 PM PDT
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by jponry on
Oct 24, 2007 3:23 PM PDT
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by UnleashTheGore on
Oct 24, 2007 3:26 PM PDT
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by groug on
Oct 24, 2007 3:28 PM PDT
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by UnleashTheGore on
Oct 24, 2007 3:31 PM PDT
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by Moderation on Oct 24, 2007 2:19 PM PDT 0 recs
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by Goofus on
Oct 24, 2007 2:29 PM PDT
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Either a toast to an ass, or a trip to New York
Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy
by hairball on
Oct 24, 2007 4:29 PM PDT
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Re: Either a toast to an ass,
by Moderation on
Oct 24, 2007 8:52 PM PDT
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Re: Stop Laughing....
by Woody Wins on
Oct 24, 2007 4:21 PM PDT
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Re: Stop Laughing....
- Lowry, Nate, and a prospect net us Jason Bay and he bounces back
- Ray Durham bounces back to an .800-.840 OPS level as he's been in the past. same with Zito
- We sign Morgan Ensberg and he bounces back to a .275/.370/.475 level
- We find adequate production out of SS either via trade (Lugo, Ronny Cedeno perhaps) or via Japan (Nioka). I could see Nioka putting up a .275/.325/.410
- Rajai/Lewis platoon works well. Lewis his .275/.360/.430 in his split and Rajai hits .289/.366/.380 in his split. They steal 40 bags between the two of them.
- Bengie can come close to his 2006+07 levels
- At 1B we trade for a Sexson salary dump and hope he can bounce back to a .260/.350/.525 level OR trade for Nick Johnson and hope he can stay healthy
- Brian Wilson emerges as a dominant reliever like he showed he could be last year
- Either sign Gagne or Billy Sadler needs to gain command of the strike zone and become a great reliever
- Correia needs to be able to give us 200 innings of 3.80-4.25 ERA ball. I think he can do it
If all that happened, we'd have a great chance at our division and any team that makes the playoffs has a shot at a WS ring
by NeifiChicken on Oct 24, 2007 2:37 PM PDT 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
Lugo? Adequate? Apparently you haven't been watching the Sox this year.
by UnleashTheGore on
Oct 24, 2007 2:50 PM PDT
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The idea with Lugo is his poor year and contract make his value low and we hope for a rebound, which is likely. Similar to what ATL did with BOS when they got Renteria, except Renteria wasn't as bad as Lugo and we'd absorb more money because we dont have an Andy Marte to trade
by NeifiChicken on
Oct 24, 2007 2:53 PM PDT
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Re: Stop Laughing....
Sexson is owed $14M in 2008.
Jason Bay is owed $13M ( $5.75M in 08, $7.5M in 09). All salary data from Cot's.
That's almost $30M for one year. I'd rather see the "kids" play for that kind of money. I don;t see those particular players adding much more value on the field than our current crop of "unknowns". Now..if there are GM's that would take Winn,Roberts and Durham ?
by nvsfg on
Oct 24, 2007 4:19 PM PDT
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Re: Stop Laughing....
- If we have to give up that much for Jason Bay, I'll pass...8 days a week.
- Durham's career OPS is .787, so even a "bounce back" wouldn't put him near your expectations.
- Ensberg seems like the poster-child for HGH.
- I'd pass on Cedeno, Lugo is intriguing, know nothing about Nioka.
- That's fine, now we have to unload Roberts.
- Bengie: If you are gonna step up to the plate over 500 times in a season, you MUST have more than 15 walks.
- Sexson would be a mighty gamble, but I'm not totally opposed. Johnson would be ok but he may be a long way from returning.
- I hope so.
- I hope you're kidding.
- Correia's my dawg. I hope he can do even better than your prediction!
by Woody Wins on
Oct 24, 2007 4:37 PM PDT
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Re: Stop Laughing....
B) In his 13 year career, durham has posted an OPS over .800 8 times. 3 of the 5 times he failed to post one were the first 3 years of his career, which makes sense as power comes more in the mid to late 20s. The other two times were last yea (which was horrible we all know) and 2005 where he missed an .800 OPS by .15 points. Even if it is just to his career average, that's productive
C) Obviously Roberts has t be unloaded, but that shouldn't be that hard if we eat half his salary. Sure, that's a big waste of money, but it's cutting our losses fine if you ask me. A few teams would be willing to take Roberts at 50% off his salary.
by NeifiChicken on
Oct 24, 2007 5:13 PM PDT
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Re: Stop Laughing....
B) Durham ain't gettin any younger/better. We'd be LUCKY if he posted anything near his career average OPS.
C) Which teams?
by Woody Wins on
Oct 25, 2007 6:43 AM PDT
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Re: Stop Laughing....
- my money's on Durham having less that 300 PAs in the MLB left in him, and they'll be under .600 OPS
- We don't need a big name 1B. As I've said so many times before - Carlos Pena, Tony Clark, Hee Sop Choi, Jack Cust, many others - every year, there's a bunch of guys like that available for the cheap. I think that the biggest block to us getting 300 TB out of 1B next year is not that we'd need to trade Lowry for it, or sign someone at $15M/yr, but because Sabean apparently has it in his head that, first and foremost, 1B is a high-importance defensive position.
by SnowLeopard on
Oct 24, 2007 7:35 PM PDT
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