Matt Cain vs. Brandon Webb

by cakes on Oct 11, 2007 6:34 PM PDT Comment 25 comments

Check this out:

Webb 2004 - 7-16, 3.59 ERA, 208 IP, 164 SO, 1 CG
Cain 2007 - 7-16, 3.65 ERA, 200 IP, 163 SO, 1 CG

Guess who won the Cy Young two years later? :-)

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Re: Matt Cain vs. Brandon Webb

all yore numbers be arbitrary.

Pedro Feliz: Marginally better this year.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Oct 11, 2007 6:31 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Matt Cain vs. Brandon Webb

I think I prefer "all yor numbers is teh arbetrary."

Dave Righetti: You don't know him. / Read My Blog, Because I Write It

by howtheyscored on Oct 11, 2007 6:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Matt Cain vs. Brandon Webb

it was supposed to be a play on all yore base are belong to us but it flopped.

point noted though.

Pedro Feliz: Marginally better this year.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Oct 11, 2007 7:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Matt Cain vs. Brandon Webb

I see. It's the second half where things fall apart. You definitely need something about either "belonging" or "us." Otherwise, I see where you're going with this.

Dave Righetti: You don't know him. / Read My Blog, Because I Write It

by howtheyscored on Oct 11, 2007 7:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Matt Cain vs. Brandon Webb

Instead it came off as Pirate speak. Which is certainly better than Ninja speak.

Tim Flannery? More like Tim Flattery!

by pme on Oct 12, 2007 12:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Matt Cain vs. Brandon Webb

Well, the other stats all favor Cain:

Hits 173 vs. 194
Walks 79 vs. 119
BAA .235 vs. .248
K/9 7.34 vs. 7.10

etc. etc.

The point is that Webb had a criminally unsupported season very similar to Cain's, and he turned out fine.

by cakes on Oct 11, 2007 6:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Matt Cain vs. Brandon Webb

he also went from a very vanilla pitcher to one who developed one of the most awesome sinkers the game has ever seen.

similar numbers don't necessarily indicate similar players.

Now if matt cain suddenly starts controlling that gorgeous curveball he pops out every once in a while, get back to me.

Pedro Feliz: Marginally better this year.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Oct 11, 2007 7:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Matt Cain vs. Brandon Webb

also, those are very similar numbers. take out the walks + the hits (also arbitrary numbers) and you've got a more comparable bevy of stats.

I'm starting to like the comparison a little more; however, i still hold that the two are dissimilar pitchers.

Pedro Feliz: Marginally better this year.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Oct 11, 2007 7:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Matt Cain vs. Brandon Webb

As a guy who has owned Webb in a long-term keeper league since his rookie year I can tell you that Webb didn't develop that nasty sinker out of nowhere. He had it when he came up but his control was terrible. Following the 2004 season they stopped setting his targets on the corners and started setting them more to the middle of the plate. More strikes and fewer walks followed immediately and the rest is history.

I love Matt Cain but he has nothing in his arsenal as nasty as Webb's sinker. He is going to have to rely on the fastball/curve combo more than one dominating pitch.

Vote for Pedro...to be DFA'd!

by W8ingForATitle on Oct 11, 2007 9:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Matt Cain vs. Brandon Webb

That's more what i meant; that he didn't really have control of the pitch until two years ago.

haha not exactly the worst combo of pitches to "rely" on for cainer, though.

Pedro Feliz: Marginally better this year.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Oct 11, 2007 9:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Matt Cain vs. Brandon Webb

His sinker didn't appear out of no where. He's always had a nasty sinker. He developed command, and another pitch, Silly

If Brad Hennesy had Steve Kline's attitude you'd get Rob Nen... without the triple digit heat.

by milesntrane on Oct 12, 2007 7:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Matt Cain vs. Brandon Webb

Stat of the day was talking about the similarity between Webb and Cain a few weeks ago.

Check out the post, it's interesting.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/archives/320

by xanthan on Oct 11, 2007 6:34 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Matt Cain vs. Brandon Webb

How did you know that Matt Cain won the Cy Young two years later! Do you have a time machine too?

Dave Righetti: You don't know him. / Read My Blog, Because I Write It

by howtheyscored on Oct 11, 2007 6:38 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Matt Cain vs. Brandon Webb

Cain and Webb are exceptionally different pitchers and I don't think they compare well outside of their stats in those two years. This is a case where the stats don't really tell us that much other than Cain pitched well and got jobbed, just like Webb did in 2004.

Adoptive father of David Quinowski: Fuck it, dude, let's go bowling

by marcello on Oct 11, 2007 6:49 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Matt Cain vs. Brandon Webb

I'm not exactly familiar enough with the details of Webb to say anything about this point, but the idea reminds me of comping Greg Maddux and Roger Clemens - two exceptionally different pitchers (and EXTREME examples of upside) who, strikeouts aside, have almost identical statistics for their careers. It's actually kind of uncanny.

Of course, that has nothing to do with Cain and Webb, but I was still reminded.

Dave Righetti: You don't know him. / Read My Blog, Because I Write It

by howtheyscored on Oct 11, 2007 7:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Matt Cain vs. Brandon Webb

Seems like a reasonable parallel to me.

Adoptive father of David Quinowski: Fuck it, dude, let's go bowling

by marcello on Oct 11, 2007 8:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually the stats do tell us the

difference between Cain and Webb.

Webb has always been an extreme groundball pitcher. Over 60% of his balls in play are wormkillers.

Cain is much more of a flyball pitcher, though he appears to be progressively changing into more of a groundball pitcher: 29.5% of balls in play as grounders in 2005, 35.6% in 2006, 39.4% this.

by rfloh on Oct 12, 2007 12:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Actually the stats do tell us the

I think the progression of his GB:FB ratio is a result of his overall progression. As he develops a more consistent breaking/offspeed pitch and keeps his fastballs low, his GB count will continue to go up. I don't think ever sniff 50%, let alone 60%, though.

by sfgfan on Oct 12, 2007 9:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Actually the stats do tell us the

I was talking about the stats listed in Diary. Obviously certain stats, especially groundball/flyball rates, tell us quite a bit about their differences.

Adoptive father of David Quinowski: Fuck it, dude, let's go bowling

by marcello on Oct 15, 2007 2:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Matt Cain vs. Brandon Webb

and ballpark adjusted?? kind of a launching pad down there in AZ

by slojoe on Oct 11, 2007 7:39 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Matt Cain vs. Brandon Webb

you'd think though that Webb being a sinker baller, being in a launching pad wouldn't affect him TOO much where as ATT being a pitchers park I think helps Cain since he's more of a fly ball pitcher

by Azmanz on Oct 11, 2007 11:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Matt Cain vs. Brandon Webb

Well, this hardly accounts for it very well, but it's the easiest equalizer I could think of.

Brandon Webb 2004 away vs. Matt Cain 2007 away:

G: 17/15
IP: 102/91
ERA: 4.31/3.84
WHIP: 1.52/1.23
BAA: .250/.218
K/9: 6.79/8.40
BB/9: 5.21/3.96

Actually, pretty good for Cainer. It's not a particularly useful equalizer, but it certainly is easy.

Dave Righetti: You don't know him. / Read My Blog, Because I Write It

by howtheyscored on Oct 12, 2007 12:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Matt Cain vs. Brandon Webb

Hey y'all, my point wasn't that they are similar pitchers. My point was - McCoven, take heart! Your favorite young pitcher to whom you have been sending your condolences just might not need them. Behold what lay in the future of another young, unlucky pitcher on a very bad team! Fear not!

Better now?

by cakes on Oct 12, 2007 8:59 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Matt Cain vs. Brandon Webb

You forgot a critical stat:

2004 Brandon Webb's age: 24
2007 Matt Cain's age: 22

by zenbitz on Oct 12, 2007 10:06 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Matt Cain vs. Brandon Webb

I absolutely LOVED the comparison -- but we probably shouldn't forget that the two are completely different pitchers.

Brandon is perhaps the best ground ball pitcher in the game, and posted a 3.33 ground out to air out ratio in 2004. Matt is a fly ball pitcher who posted only a 0.91 GO/AO ratio this past season.

It is Webb's combination of being an excellent ground ball pitcher, a very good strikeout pitcher and a good control pitcher that makes him great.

Incidentally, Brandon cut his walks in half in 2005. Matt cut his walks by MORE than half over the last two months of this season (1.80/9) from the first four months (4.50/9).

by sharksrog on Oct 12, 2007 11:08 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs