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Stats of the Union

Yesterday's blind grope for posting ideas bore fruit. I've never put down my feelings on stats in words, and there were a couple of folks who hoped for some sort of statistical primer. I'd be more qualified to post instructions on how to assemble a couch, and the last time I tried to assemble a couch a special plastic surgeon had to be flown out from Sweden on Ikea's dime. Peg A into Slot B, my ass.*

I can't tell how VORP is calculated or the relative merits of PECOTA over ZIPS. I vaguely know something about pitchers not being too responsible for allowing hits, and how proponents and detractors of the theory both shoot blood out of their ears trying to convince others that the theory is right or wrong. A lot of bright people come to a lot of different conclusions when trying to measure defense. That's about the extent of my knowledge.

Yet this site does attract its fair share of statheads. They don't run screaming from my ignorance; they don't stick around solely to try and convert me. Maybe a few of them just can't avert their attention from the train wreck that is my Peter Gammons-meets-Bob Saget style of baseball writing, but I can't be too offensive with my ignorance. The reason is that I follow the 8-Step-Guide-of-Things-to-Remember that Ensure-Harmony-Between-Statheads-and-Baseball-Purists:

  1. Outs are bad. They are the only finite thing in every game, and they should be treasured.
  2. Home runs are good. So are singles, doubles, and triples, but home runs are the bestest.
  3. Pitchers who don't give up a lot of runs are good, but be careful of the ones who stop striking people out or begin walking too many. Don't trust the pitchers who don't give up a lot of runs but don't strike many people out.
  4. Anyone who can throw above 90 MPH has the potential to put up 60 innings of 3.00 ERA relief work. Don't get too excited when it happens, but remember this when  bemoaning the state of any bullpen before a season even begins.
  5. Players who have been good in the past are likely to be good in the future. The reverse is also true.
  6. A player with 20 home runs in Fenway Park is not the same as a player with 20 home runs in Petco Park.
  7. Some positions are harder to fill with good hitters, especially middle infielders, catchers, and centerfielders.
  8. People who wear too much cologne or perfume should be euthanized.
That's the foundation, and I'm sure there's stuff I missed. Team speed isn't referenced, for example. I think Bill James had a similar list. But those points are usually the basis for almost every argument I make. When the Giants were looking to sign Gary Matthews Jr., my inner dialogue hopped around the list before making a snap judgment:
Let's see...Matthews has really only had one good year (5), he doesn't really excel at getting on base (1), and he isn't that great of a power hitter (2). The power he did have might have been boosted by the Rangers' home park (6). Even though he's supposed to be a good centerfielder (7), I can't see why a team would spend $55,000,000 on him.
There might be other considerations, but those are what will form the snap judgment. The same dialogue went on when considering Barry Zito:
He's had a good ERA in the past (3 and 5), but he's scaring me with his declining strikeouts and rising walks (3). And, really, pal. This is a commuter train, not some club on Ibiza. Do I have to smell you from across the car? (8)

I generally don't reference much more than batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage for simplicity's sake. Those three can give a great -- though incomplete -- thumbnail sketch of a player. If anyone has an argument for a specific advanced stat, this would be a good place to inform the rest of us.

* You are right to wonder how literally you should take that last sentence. Maybe a colon would have been more appropriate than a comma.**

** You are right to wonder if the use of the word "colon" had a double-meaning just then. It did not.

0 recs  |  Comment 39 comments

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Re: Stats of the Union
"Players who have been good in the past are likely to be good in the future. The reverse is also true."

Players who have been good in the future are likely to be good in the past? I suppose that's pretty true, but I don't see how to apply it...

DFA Everybody

by JakeS on Jan 24, 2007 1:54 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Stats of the Union
You could if you had a flux capacitor and a DeLorean.
Brian Sabean for President! Anything that keeps him away from the Giants.

by Punch Rockgroin on Jan 24, 2007 2:07 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Stats of the Union
Easy there McFly
Save The Pitcher. Save The World

by E Ticket on Jan 24, 2007 5:43 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Stats of the Union
Outs are bad. They are the only finite thing in every game, and they should be treasured.

Pffft.  Whatever, dude.

Dude, where's my job?

by The Real Dusty Baker on Jan 24, 2007 2:12 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Stats of the Union
You tell him, Dusty. I don't see any bases being clogged by outs!

by Kitspool on Jan 24, 2007 2:29 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Stats of the Union

9. Players on the young side of 30 tend to get better, old side, tend to get worse.  Note deviation from stathead dogma of 27 y.o.  

by zenbitz on Jan 24, 2007 2:22 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Stats of the Union
The Cubs just signed Cliff Floyd, so if the Giants dump Bonds, the two players left we can replace him with are:

     1. Preston Wilson
     2. Jeromy Burnitz

Either of these will make the Giants a candidate for Keith Olberman's "Worst Lineup in the World"

Just one time before I die

by Katman on Jan 24, 2007 3:13 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Stats of the Union
Hey, don't forget Shannon Stewart.  He fits in nicely with those two.

For what it's worth, Rich Draper is assuming Bonds will be starting in left field next year.

http://sanfrancisco.giants.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070123&content_id=1785199&a mp;vkey=news_sf&fext=.jsp&c_id=sf

by sfgreg on Jan 24, 2007 3:34 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

number 10
ERA represents a fine means of evaluating past performance for starting pitching; however, it has very little predicative power.
Flossing a dead horse

by kenshin1 on Jan 24, 2007 3:45 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

ERA
ERA for one year has little predictive power.  ERA over several years, barry injury of course, is about as good as it gets.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 24, 2007 4:31 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: ERA
"Barry injury" would be hilarious if didn't scare me to death.
<(-'.'-)>

by lunaticfridge on Jan 24, 2007 4:38 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

barring
Sorry for the typo.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 24, 2007 6:32 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Stats of the Union
Jim Hendry says you need guys who drive in runs "the right way."
Never mind whatever I do!!! Fan is my tresure!!!

by leftymalo on Jan 24, 2007 4:43 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Stats of the Union
Many people probably didn't click on Lefty's Link.  Ummm - you should.  This list is fantastic:

Jim Hendry's List of the Wrong Ways to Knock in Runs
-Using a cricket bat
-Catching the ball with your bare hand and throwing it into the gap
-Forcing a balk
-Grand slams (rally killers)
-With one or zero outs (not clutch)
-Walking (embarrassing)
-During the first six innings (A-Rod style)
-If you're a "run scorer" and not a "run producer"
-With your face
-With your ass

by DiegoGiant on Jan 24, 2007 5:02 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Stats of the Union
Dang, I was hoping the Giants could make their way to the 2007 World Series by leading the league in Forced Balks...but now I see that would be wrong.
You're nobody 'til everybody in
this town thinks you're a bastard - Elvis Costello

by EliminateMe on Jan 24, 2007 5:58 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Stats of the Union
My personal favorite for sentimental reasons: HBP with bases loaded. That's how my dad drove in his last run as a semipro player for the San Mateo Blues at the age of 45 or 46.

by NearestNorwich on Jan 24, 2007 7:20 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Stats of the Union
Your honor, I object to counsel's implication that the witnesses are not "purists" if they are "statheads".

11: Strikeouts are negligibly worse than any other type of out a batter can make. The worst things he can do are hit into a triple or double play.

The reason why strikeouts are the best thing a pitcher can do and not the worst thing a hitter can do is because strikeouts have different implications for the two sides: For pitchers, it means that they are not allowing balls in play, which takes a good chunk of the responsibility for getting the out out of their hands. For hitters, having a lot of strikeouts and very few walks is bad because it indicates a lack of pitch selection, but a lot of strikeouts could also be a sign of working deep into the count and, hopefully, trying to hit the ball hard on every pitch, since, as mentioned before, the worst thing a hitter can do is hit weakly into a double play. So, really, though outs are outs, whether or not a lot of strikeouts is bad depends on what it indicates the hitter's approach is.

by David Arnott on Jan 24, 2007 5:35 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

BIP
If you are talking about the difference between, say, 13K/9 and 4 K/9, yes, that is a significant difference in number of balls taken out of play and significantly impacts the ability of the opposing team to get hits and score runs.  If you are talking about the difference between, say 7 K/9 and 5 K/9 where a large number of major league pitchers live, then that difference is negligible to the point of being a non-factor.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 24, 2007 6:38 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: BIP
Is there future predictive value, though?  Two (otherwise identical) pitchers - say career ERA+ of 4.00; one has 7K/9 one 5K/9 - is the 7K one likely to have a better future?  Have a lower-variance future?

by zenbitz on Jan 25, 2007 10:28 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: BIP
In your scenario, the 7K/9 guy is walking more batters than the 5K/9 guy.  Otherwise, they wouldn't likely have the same ERA, unless the 7K/9 guy gives up more HR.

If the walk and HR rates are close, the 7K/9 guy is going to be better in the long run because he will allow fewer baserunners.

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jan 25, 2007 1:34 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

That Statement.....
Pretty much proves you have no idea how to interpret pitching stats.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 25, 2007 7:59 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: BIP
No, they just have different BABIP, or possibly perform better with runners on.

by zenbitz on Jan 28, 2007 9:32 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: BIP
You say that the difference between 7K/9 and 5K/9 is negligible, but I would beg to differ.  The extra two balls in play in theory have a 30% chance each of becoming hits.  Thus the extra two balls in play become .6 hits/9, which begins to become significant.  Over 180 innings, that's an extra 12 hits.  And since those 12 hits require 12 more outs to be made, they likely allow another five hits or so to be achieved.  So now we're up to 17 extra hits over 180 innings, or .85 hits per nine innings.  That does indeed make a difference.

Interestingly if we look at Greg Maddux's career from 1991 through 2001 (with the exception of 1999) we see that during those years he averaged about 7K/9.  His ERA ranged from 1.56 to 3.35.  Beginning in 2002 and in 1999, he dropped off to about 5K/9.  During those years his ERA ranged from 2.62 to 4.24 (or about a full run higher), with all but two years (1999 and 2002) being 3.96 or above.  Greg's increase in hits allowed per nine innings also runs somewhat similar to the increase described above per nine innings when one compares the two different periods.

I realize that dropping from around 7K/9 to about 5K/9 doesn't sound like much, but it often signifies a decline in dominance, resulting in more hits allowed, more homers yielded and more walks given up.

Incidentally, on the Giants when we're talking about the difference between a guy who gets 7K/9 compared to a guy who gets 5K/9, we're comparing Matt Cain to Matt Morris.  See much difference?

by sharksrog on Jan 27, 2007 10:56 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: BIP
Not arguing that the guy who K's 7/9 isn't a better pitcher or at least likely to be a better pitcher.  It may be a sign that he is better able to get a K in a tight situation, or that he  is harder to make solid contact against.  What I'm reacting to is the false notion that the reason the 7/9 guy is better than the 5/9 guy is because the 5/9 guy allows more BIP's and since BIP's have a chance of being a hit, the 5/9 guy wil automatically allow more hits and more runs.  Yeah, Maddux' decline in K's may have been a sign of less dominant stuff or not quite as fine control.  The idea that his ERA jumped from 1.6 to 2.5 because of the increase in BIP's is just silly.

0.6 hits/game!!  That's roughly an extra hit every other game.  Sorry, that is just not going to make any significant dent in ERA, W-L, or anything else of importance.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 28, 2007 9:31 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Stats of the Union
I don't think this anything you could have a stat on but it's a strong impression I've been left with at times -- some pitchers seem not to be striking out many people except when they absolutely have to. I saw Livan do this to the Giants in Montreal once and it was one of the most maddening games I ever watched. It seemed like the only strikeouts came with men in scoring position when the game was on the line.

by NearestNorwich on Jan 24, 2007 7:26 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I Agree
IMO, the ability to get a K in a key situation is much more important than just mowing down a lineup which tends to raise pitch counts.  That may be the reason why a 7 K/9 pitcher is better than a 5 K/9 rather than the inconsequential difference in BIP.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 24, 2007 9:02 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Stats of the Union
There are some pitchers that may purposely pitch to contact until they need a strikeout. But for most, K rate is  more of a "stuff" indicator. I would say in most cases, like with Zito, a declining K rate corresponds with declining velocity or command.

by mxmob33 on Jan 25, 2007 8:32 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Stats of the Union
Or you could actually watch him chuck a few innings. Or listen to Krukow tell you whether he had command or not. Velocity or not.

If folks had listened to Kruk a little more closely and sift through the required homer happy talk, they would have picked up long ago what the Giants suspected for awhile.  Schmidt's power was, and is, on a steeper, rather than shallower, decline.

To paraphrase Kruk: "Nobody is really sure why the big fella is so in and out with his velocity and command."  

The obvious inference, especially in light of the revelations of roid prevelance amongst pitchers, is that after the 2002 season, Schmidt lost some of his "stuff" for a reason not too easy to explain.

Save The Pitcher. Save The World

by E Ticket on Jan 25, 2007 9:32 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Stats of the Union
Schmidty was always suspect #1 to me, but I still loved watching him throw 98mph. It was a beautiful thing.

by mxmob33 on Jan 25, 2007 11:06 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Stats of the Union
QUICK THOUGHT ON SCHMIDT: The "Reluctant Ace" certainly seemed  disillusioned with SF over the past 1.5 years, and Jason  is an injury implosion waiting to happen. Still, imagine a Zito-Schmidt-Cain-Lowry-Morris rotation. Wow. No matter how bad the offense or bullpen, that rotation makes your team a contender.

BULLPEN WOES: Grant states: "Anyone who can throw above 90 MPH has the potential to put up 60 innings of 3.00 ERA relief work." Potential, yes. Number of Giants pitcher who performed this feat last year = zero. Pitcher who came the closest = Mike Stanton.  Where Stanton pitches now = not SF. Giants bullpen = eternal promise of "potential." SF bullpen ERA over last three seasons = ranked 14 in the National League. Emphasis on rank.

Potential is great, but the Giants have been loaded with young bullpen pitchers with lots of potential for the past three years, and exactly one SF player since 2004-2006 has  accomplished 60+ IP, sub-3 era. That would be Scott Eyre, in 2004, with 68.2 IP, 2.63era. Over the past three seasons, only two other Giants relievers sported sub-3 era's: Scott Munter with (38.2 ip, 2.56 era), and Jack Tachner, (22.2 ip, 1.59 era). Tachner & Munter have come back down to earth after stellar debuts, to put it mildly.

Good bullpen guys tend to come out of nowhwere, and yes, the Giants once again enter 2007 with a number of young arms who might surprise. Yet the core bullpen issues remain the same as last year. Namely, the Giants are banking on Benitez and Kline to be clutch late inning performers; counting on the entire quartet of Correia, Hennessy, Sanchez, and Chulk to continue their improvement; banking on Ortiz, Linecum, Cortes, or Kim to hold down the 5th starter role; and banking on at least one youngster (Wilson, Sadler, Threets, Misch) to have a break-out year.

Simply put, these gambles have not paid off the over the past three seasons. Bullpen performance is incredibly hard to predict, so perhaps the Giants are due some good luck, but the stats don't look promising.

by Kid Fresh on Jan 25, 2007 12:23 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Stats of the Union
There are plenty of reasons besides illicit substances (or lack thereof) why a 33-year-old pitcher would decline in performance. Pitching is bad for the body. Pitching at least 15 years in a row, which most major-league pitchers have done by the time they're 30, is terrible for the body. Only the extremely lucky, extremely diligent, and/or extremely medicated can pitch at a high level year after year.
Never mind whatever I do!!! Fan is my tresure!!!

by leftymalo on Jan 25, 2007 12:20 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Stats of the Union
But how many reasons are there for a 29 yr old to gain 4 mph?

by mxmob33 on Jan 25, 2007 1:03 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Stats of the Union
I'm not counting out better pitching through chemistry, but it's certainly within reason that he would finally be healthy after years of nagging injury, throw 95 consistently for a few years, then as nagging injury sets back in, the velocity and accuracy drops again.  
Never mind whatever I do!!! Fan is my tresure!!!

by leftymalo on Jan 25, 2007 2:39 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Stats of the Union
I would agree except that in Schmidt's heyday (02-04) he was regularly pumping in 96-98mph heaters. Now that he's a Dodger I can say that I highly doubt that was from being healthy.

And it just all happened to coincide with Balco's prominent years in Bay Area sports. Didn't Schmidt like to credit Benito for regaining his FB?

by mxmob33 on Jan 25, 2007 3:50 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Stats of the Union
Its all innuendo of course. Thank you Bud Selig. Thank you Kevin Ryan. But mostly thank you mass media hysterical pansy-asses.

Shame on MLB establishment for not growing a pair and changing the public perception on steroids to what it always should have been.  A very complex sports medicine issue as complicated as ligament transplants were a generation ago. By saying nothing, they let those with a vested interest in the status quo, those who are stuck in the past, those with a political agenda, and those who were simply looking for any club handy to beat individual reputations about the head, shape the public perception of hormone therapy, and denigrate the great accomplishments of extemely talented individuals. By saying and doing nothing and pretending there was nothing, they were essentially saying it was everything the vested interests said it was. The grandstanding politicians. The smited media. The memorabilia collectors. The good old we don't want change network. The fear mongers. The charlatans and poseurs. In other words the usual suspects when it comes to resisting change and advancement.

The real tragedy is that hormone therapy has been driven underground. The real tragedy is that if in fact Jason Schmidt's career could benefit from Andro, he faces expulsion, shame and ridicule for using a legitimate pharmacuetical to prolong and enhance his heretofore substantial and significant career.

Shame on Bud Selig and the others within MLB power structure who know this even more than I, and sit by wringing their hands in front of Congressional blowhards and morally bankrupted law enforcement while the very athletes who made them famous and made them wealthy twist in the wind, humiliated by the dregs of society.

Save The Pitcher. Save The World

by E Ticket on Jan 25, 2007 2:23 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Stats of the Union
With constant improvements in medical care and recovery treatments (even diet!) over the last 100 years, and the controversy surrounding many of them, I honestly believe that a drug or treatment that works to the same effect as steroids (which is to say vastly heightened recovery) could only be beneficial in the long run to both the state of the sport and its athletes.

The disgusting thing about steroids is that they can, and commonly do - abuse aside - have nastly and long term detrimental side effects that range in seriousness as far to the right as death. Steroids are good for your playing days, but very bad for your long term health, and that's why they need to be dealt with. It's also what most people don't realize.

But steroids, on the basic principle of beneficial medical treatment for extreme or prolonged physical stress and fatigue, are a good thing for all athletes anywhere. If a drug ever comes out that has these effects without killing people in the process, I'll be happy to support its legality in sports.

Coming to you by proxy

by howtheyscored on Jan 28, 2007 10:58 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Stats of the Union
Has anyone else noticed that the stathead big three for hitters is avg-ob%-slug while the espn/mlb.com/casual fan big three is avg-homers-rbis? Its hard to read espn.com and mlb.com articles and take them seriously because you cant really get the facts from avg-homers-rbis. And pitching, oh god. All they give you is Wins-Loses, era(about half the time), and strikesouts(often the other half of the time). What should be shown is IP, ERA,WHIP, K's.

by smirnoff on Jan 25, 2007 10:38 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Stats of the Union
I would say the stathead big three for hitters is OBP, SLG and the resultant OPS.  Those three things correlate much more with runs scored by a team than does batting average.

Incidentally, this is a back of the envelope type of formula, but if one takes 200 times a team's OPS in excess of .600 and adds it to 450, one gets a decent approximation of the runs scored by a team.  

For instance, in 2005 the Giants OPS was only .696 -- and they scored only 649 runs.  The formula predicted them to score 642 runs (450 plus 200 times the difference between .696 and .600).  Last season the Giants OPS improved to .746, predicting they would score 742 runs, or 100 more than in 2005.  They scored 746 runs, or 97 more than in 2005 -- in one fewer game.  

This formula doesn't always work out this closely, but it's almost always right in the ballpark (no pun intended).  And I'm certain a better formula could be devised if even more accuracy were to be necessary.

What this formula implies, by the way, is that for every point a team improves its OPS, it will score about two more runs.  If the Giants wish to get back to the 855 runs they scored in 2004, they will likely need to get their team OPS up around .800.  When the Giants scored the 855 runs in 2004, their OPS was .795.

I don't see that they have acquired the players this off-season to accomplish that.  No one has been signed to take the place of Moises Alou and hit +.900 OPS.  IMO the Giants are likely to score about the same number of runs as they scored in 2005 -- or perhaps fewer.  And that's WITH a productive Barry Bonds.  If the Giants don't wind up re-signing Barry -- or if he isn't relatively healthy and productive -- they'll likely struggle to score 700 runs.

by sharksrog on Jan 27, 2007 11:15 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Stats of the Union
If you can do simple addition, you can do your own OPS, thats why I didn't add it in. Yes i agree ops i very important, but so is average. Average isn't so much just for the sake of average, but when you put average next to ob%, you see how many times he walks, how much he relies on getting a hit or walking.
The perfect example is Adam Dunn(my boy). He hit .234 last year, and as we all know he strikes out a lot. Thats well below league average, 47 points to be exact. But if you look at his on base%, its .364. Thats 11 points over average. What can you deduce? He strikes out a lot(or just gets out a lot), and he also draws a lot of walks. Thats why you need those 3, and you can figure out ops on your own.
You can also just make a big 4 if you wish

by smirnoff on Jan 28, 2007 7:21 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

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