let's go back to thinking about Zito
Catfish Stew has a pretty interesting series of articles about why he thinks that worries about Zito's periphereal numbers are overblown. Part III is a way cool visual demonstration on Zito's pitching tactics and why he doesn't display the conventional lefty/lefty split.
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Re: let's go back to thinking about Zito
by Dan from NM on Jan 13, 2007 10:37 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: let's go back to thinking about Zito
Good hitting is timing. Good pitching disrupts timing.
Thats it. It is that simple. Not easy. Simple. And hard. And requires talent from the hitter and pitcher.
In the mid-80s the Roger Craig split finger was the nastiest pitch around. It made Detroit's Jack Morris completely dominant for a period of time. Why? Because it was seldom seen and hard to time. It was dominant then, now, not so much as many pitchers throw a variant of it.
Another example. I can take your average high school starter into a batting cage and over the course of a couple sessions, have him consistently hit line drives off of 110 mph fastballs. Why? Because of the lack of movement and the non variance in speed and location of a high-end pitching machine. It enables him to time it.
Now I can take that same kid, mix in a 78 mph fastball with a 63 mph sweeping curveball and have the kid so far in front or behind as the case may be, as to have him falling on the ground from being so off-balance the destruction of his timing so complete.
As the article implied, what makes Zito so special is that very few guys pitch like he does. (To a certain lesser extent, this applies to Tim Wakefield) Hitters don't see his type of pitching that much. And thats why you can throw out most of the bullshit coming from those that rely soley on stats and don't have a clue as to what they're even looking at, much less form an intelligent opinion on what they see.
Its pretty hard to time what you don't see. Stats
can't measure that kind of stuff.
Don't misunderstand, I love when metrics and stats and other attempts at quantatative and qualatative analysis bring new insight to the game. But simply because some of the new knowledge is new, does not make it purposeful or insightful. It unfortunately sometimes distracts (at least for the uninitiated) from real learning and appreciation of the thousands of nuances of that which called baseball.
In a nutshell. You can't hit a moving object unless you can time it. Its that simple
by E Ticket on Jan 13, 2007 1:50 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
A swing and a miss
by Moggeee on Jan 13, 2007 2:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: let's go back to thinking about Zito
But E, it's not that stats, at times, become useless. It's that various interperatations of stats can beome useless.
For instance, the guy who wrote this pro-Zito article is likely a "stat-head" or geek or whatever. And his point is that the average stat freak analysis of Zito's career projection could be wrong.
That the reason Zito has been succesful with letting so many balls in play is a skill and not a long term component of luck. But the writer is getting to that point, by interperating the stats. Is there an explanation why Zito consistenly gives up less hits than he should? Is it based on his home park or team defense? And by using stats the writer theorizes that it isn't.
And as you say, the crux of the writer's theory is that Zito pitches differently than eveybody else. Which seems plausable, having watched Zito pitch. But the writer gets there, through his use of stats.
by GiantJim on Jan 14, 2007 9:13 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: let's go back to thinking about Zito
Of course. I thought that was implied. I think the point I am trying to make Jim, is that too often stats become redundant and pedantic. Hence my reference to those who rely SOLEY on stats. Don't get me wrong. I embrace numbers. When they are applied correctly and used in context and perspective.
We can talk and write all day long about Zito. Pecotas, Fips, BAA and all kinds of stuff to quantify and qualify players. Great. Thousands and thousands of words, and I don't know how many hundreds of hours building and justifying mathematical models to measure pitching performance and prognosticate future pitching results.
And in the case of Zito, a lot of effort was expended deconstructing these very same models to explain something that a baseball guy could tell you after watching him pitch for 5 minutes. I mean, I think its nice that somebody went to the trouble to quantify it mathematically, but that somebody was just telling the world something that has been understood by MLB folks since his rookie year.
In a sentence. Zito dominates because he throws pitches that nobody else does, and those types of pitches induce weak suck pop ups mixed in with just enough fastball to break-down hitters' timing.
This is not rocket science. It does not even require great skill in evaluating physical talent. It is simply apparent to anybody who pays attention to what they're watching. You don't need a single solitary stat to tell you that he can be a very dominant pitcher when he throws his very dominant pitch. Watching opposing hitters flail at Zito pitches illustrates this quite nicely.
And for what its worth, imho, metrics proponents have not made as much progress as they should because of the aura of intellecutal superiority that some, though not all, tend to bring to any discussion with the baseball establishment. A lot of this attitude I believe is simply a defense mechanism. Understandable since many baseball guys tend to be snobbish and just as defensive in their resistance to new knowledge or a new and different way of evaluating talent and quanitifying worth.
Billy Beane has been extremely successful, not because he is a metrics guy or uses numbers to find contract bargains. That is only part of it. Billy Beane was a damn good athelete, played the game at the MLB level, and knows what it is like to be a player, and a numbers guy. In other words in addition to knowing how to use numbers, he knows exactly what he is looking at on the field. He uses both disciplines and the knowledge base that both provide. And that gives him a tremendous advantage over others in the MLB baseball establishment
What he would have done had he been the Giants GM over the years is something that would have been extremely revolutionary I think.
by E Ticket on Jan 14, 2007 10:17 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Beane vs. Sabean: The contrast is now very stark
Yet Beane -- so quantitatively and qualitatively superior to Sabean in every dimension of the GM job -- might not have lasted long under Magowan.
Beane's crowning moment came when he traded "untouchables" Mulder and Hudson in 2004 to the astonishment of everybody, including the teams he was trading these pitchers to.
Nobody regrets those moves now, except the Cardinals and Braves.
For a direct comparison, note how Sabean didn't appear to even consider trading a declining Schmidt for talent and prospects -- when he could have sold Schmidt at a premium -- at midseason in both 2005 and 2006. One gets the feeling Sabean's action plan of Inaction during both dismal seasons had the overt approval of Magowan.
What did Sabean and Magowan get for keeping him? Two dismal finishes in the NL Worst, and the prospect of a fired-up Dodger named Schmidt striking out 17 Giants when next the two teams meet.
Gad, what a crappy, obscene outcome.
How good is Beane? Look around and see how many GMs are given a hunk of the franchise as part of their compensation package. Smart guy Lew Wolff doesn't have to meddle in baseball operations, like Magowan obviously does. Wolff's Number One job when he bought the franchise was to make one good baseball decision: turn over the ship to Beane, and pay him handsomely.
And Wolff, no dummy, made Beane the primary Condition of Sale before escrow closed.
Call the Oakland GM by his real name: Billy Franchise.
by Moggeee on Jan 14, 2007 2:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Beane vs. Sabean: The contrast is now very sta
I believe a comparison to the Eddie D. Bill Walsh John McVay 49ers in the 1980s free-market, pre-outcome based socialist salary cap world of the NFL would not be inappropriate.
by E Ticket on Jan 14, 2007 3:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Beane: Son of Walsh, the holy father
by Moggeee on Jan 14, 2007 3:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Beane: Son of Walsh, the holy father
by E Ticket on Jan 14, 2007 3:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'll stand up to anything but vegetables
Beane gets very little love on this Giants-tilted site. But he's a once-in-a-generation talent, much like Walsh.
So Beane's preeminence requires a longer treatment. More development of the argument. And despite the fact that I am an unwavering Giants fan, I will hammer the Beane story home.
(Until I am pummeled with baked potatoes.)
by Moggeee on Jan 14, 2007 3:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: let's go back to thinking about Zito
by sharksrog on Jan 15, 2007 10:33 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: let's go back to thinking about Zito
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jan 15, 2007 5:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: let's go back to thinking about Zito
Fans collectively said, "Neato!"
But with peripherals descending,
And curveball unbending,
Soon we'll realize he's a torpedo.
by lunaticfridge on Jan 13, 2007 6:13 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: let's go back to thinking about Zito
by howtheyscored on Jan 13, 2007 9:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, a torpedo
by Moggeee on Jan 13, 2007 11:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Yeah, a torpedo
by Moggeee on Jan 13, 2007 11:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Yeah, a torpedo
by howtheyscored on Jan 14, 2007 10:12 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: let's go back to thinking about Zito
1st person: " How did your hearing test go?"
2nd person: "There once was a man from Nantucket, who had big ears and wished for an even bigger nose, and an even bigger dick."
Its what happens when you don't get out of the house very often. Kind of like Napoleon Dynamite, but more nerdy.
by E Ticket on Jan 14, 2007 10:34 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Only on McCovey
Okay. Now let's tackle Iraq.
by Moggeee on Jan 14, 2007 4:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Only on McCovey
by howtheyscored on Jan 14, 2007 7:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
War is Hell
I got nothin' against them Viet Cong.
by Moggeee on Jan 14, 2007 11:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
More!
by oldjacket on Jan 13, 2007 6:18 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: let's go back to thinking about Zito
I'm sure that Sabean's primary motivation for signing Zito was the fact that his BABIP against righties is five standard deviations below the mean despite 3,200 BIP.
by Pants Man on Jan 13, 2007 11:59 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: let's go back to thinking about Zito
by E Ticket on Jan 14, 2007 7:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: let's go back to thinking about Zito
by Natto on Jan 14, 2007 1:54 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: let's go back to thinking about Zito
by Rusty the Mechanical Man on Jan 14, 2007 9:55 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: let's go back to thinking about Zito
- Arneson argues that there are three Zitos: the three-pitch pitcher of 2000-03, the five-pitch pitcher of 2005-06, and the transitional pitcher of 2004. What jumps out at me about this breakdown is that he was a hell of a lot better in 2000-03. Is he overcomplicating things? Rick Peterson seemed to think so.
- Arneson again:
This part of his game could improve, right? It seems intuitive that a pitcher's ability to find the right release points etc. from one start to the next would become more consistent as he matures.
- It's not just his BABiP that is better against right-handed hitters; over his career, he has been better against righties in nearly every way. This bodes well for his future at Mays Field, since lefties are somewhat neutralized by the park anyway.
- However, this reverse platoon split seems to have disappeared over the last two years. In 2005 and 2006, the lefty/righty batting lines are more-or-less equal.
- I'd really like to know how many outs Zito gets on foul popups. Anyone know how to find such data?
by Evan on Jan 15, 2007 8:17 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: let's go back to thinking about Zito
by Evan on Jan 15, 2007 8:22 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: let's go back to thinking about Zito
That is any pitcher at any level. Its a variation on the maxim: "1/3 of the time you have great stuff. A 1/3 of the time its spotty. Another 1/3 of the time you have nothing." Kind of paraphrased and a generality.
The key is to push as many of the 1/3 average outings into the win column. That is something that Estes could not do but Glavine can and we're going to find out with Lowry this year.
by E Ticket on Jan 15, 2007 9:01 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

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