McCovey Chronicles: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
Around SBN: The 2009-2010 Card Chronicle Big East basketball preview

let's go back to thinking about Zito

Catfish Stew has a pretty interesting series of articles about why he thinks that worries about Zito's periphereal numbers are overblown. Part III is a way cool visual demonstration on Zito's pitching tactics and why he doesn't display the conventional lefty/lefty split.

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

0 recs  |  Comment 30 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Re: let's go back to thinking about Zito
Interesting analysis. The article suggests Zito gets a lot of right-handed hitters to ground the ball to third, where it just so happens we have the no-hit-but-slick-fielding Pedro Feliz.

by Dan from NM on Jan 13, 2007 10:37 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: let's go back to thinking about Zito
Zito's success can be attributed to the overriding principle of effective pitching vs. effective hitting.

Good hitting is timing. Good pitching disrupts timing.

Thats it. It is that simple. Not easy. Simple. And hard. And requires talent from the hitter and pitcher.

In the mid-80s the Roger Craig split finger was the nastiest pitch around. It made Detroit's Jack Morris completely dominant for a period of time. Why? Because it was seldom seen and hard to time.  It was dominant then, now, not so much as many pitchers throw a variant of it.

Another example.  I can take your average high school starter into a batting cage and over the course of a couple sessions, have him consistently hit line drives off of 110 mph fastballs.  Why? Because of the lack of movement and the non variance in speed and location of a high-end pitching machine. It enables him to time it.

Now I can take that same kid, mix in a 78 mph fastball with a 63 mph sweeping curveball and have the kid so far in front or behind as the case may be, as to have him falling on the ground from being so off-balance the destruction of his timing so complete.

As the article implied, what makes Zito so special is that very few guys pitch like he does. (To a certain lesser extent, this applies to Tim Wakefield)  Hitters don't see his type of pitching that much. And thats why you can throw out most of the bullshit coming from those that rely soley on stats and don't have a clue as to what they're even looking at, much less form an intelligent opinion on what they see.

Its pretty hard to time what you don't see. Stats
can't measure that kind of stuff.

Don't misunderstand, I love when metrics and stats and other attempts at quantatative and qualatative analysis bring new insight to the game.  But simply because some of the new knowledge is new, does not make it purposeful or insightful.  It unfortunately sometimes distracts (at least for the uninitiated) from real learning and appreciation of the thousands of nuances of that which called baseball.

In a nutshell. You can't hit a moving object unless you can time it. Its that simple

Save The Pitcher. Save The World

by E Ticket on Jan 13, 2007 1:50 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

A swing and a miss
That's why I always give a couple of headfakes before I dart into into a baseball opinion.

by Moggeee on Jan 13, 2007 2:03 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: let's go back to thinking about Zito
First off, Barry Zito himself, posted this same article a while back.  And it is outstanding.

But E, it's not that stats, at times, become useless.  It's that  various interperatations of stats can beome useless.

For instance, the guy who wrote this pro-Zito article is likely a "stat-head" or geek or whatever.  And his point is that the average stat freak analysis of Zito's career projection could be wrong.

That the reason Zito has been succesful with letting so many balls in play is a skill and not a long term component of luck.  But the writer is getting to that point, by interperating the stats.  Is there an explanation why Zito consistenly gives up less hits than he should?  Is it based on his home park or team defense?  And by using stats the writer theorizes that it isn't.

And as you say, the crux of the writer's theory is that Zito pitches differently than eveybody else.  Which seems plausable, having watched Zito pitch.  But the writer gets there, through his use of stats.

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power the world will know peace." - Jimi Hendrix

by GiantJim on Jan 14, 2007 9:13 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: let's go back to thinking about Zito
But E, it's not that stats, at times, become useless.  It's that  various interperatations of stats can become useless.

Of course. I thought that was implied. I think the point I am trying to make Jim, is that too often stats become redundant and pedantic. Hence my reference to those who rely SOLEY on stats.  Don't get me wrong. I embrace numbers. When they are applied correctly and used in context and  perspective.

We can talk and write all day long about Zito. Pecotas, Fips, BAA and all kinds of stuff to quantify and qualify players. Great. Thousands and thousands of words, and I don't know how many hundreds of hours building and justifying mathematical models to measure pitching performance and prognosticate future pitching results.

And in the case of Zito, a lot of effort was expended deconstructing these very same models to explain something that a baseball guy could tell you after watching him pitch for 5 minutes. I mean, I think its nice that somebody went to the trouble to quantify it mathematically, but that somebody was just telling the world something that has been understood by MLB folks since his rookie year.  

In a sentence. Zito dominates because he throws pitches that nobody else does, and those types of pitches induce weak suck pop ups mixed in with just enough fastball to break-down hitters' timing.

This is not rocket science. It does not even require great skill in evaluating physical talent. It is simply apparent to anybody who pays attention to what they're watching. You don't need a single solitary stat to tell you that he can be a very dominant pitcher when he throws his very dominant pitch.  Watching opposing hitters flail at Zito pitches illustrates this quite nicely.

And for what its worth, imho, metrics proponents have not made as much progress as they should because of the aura of intellecutal superiority that some, though not all, tend to bring to any discussion with the baseball establishment. A lot of this attitude I believe is simply a defense mechanism. Understandable since many baseball guys tend to be snobbish and just as defensive in their resistance to new knowledge or a new and different way of evaluating talent and quanitifying worth.

Billy Beane has been extremely successful, not because he is a metrics guy or uses numbers to find contract bargains.  That is only part of it.  Billy Beane was a damn good athelete, played the game at the MLB level, and knows what it is like to be a player, and a numbers guy.  In other words in addition to knowing how to use numbers, he knows exactly what he is looking at on the field.  He uses both disciplines and the knowledge base that both provide.  And that gives him a tremendous advantage over others in the MLB baseball establishment

What he would have done had he been the Giants GM over the years is something that would have been extremely revolutionary I think.

Save The Pitcher. Save The World

by E Ticket on Jan 14, 2007 10:17 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Beane vs. Sabean: The contrast is now very stark
Beane as Giants GM? Don't make me weep at what might have been.

Yet Beane -- so quantitatively and qualitatively superior to Sabean in every dimension of the GM job -- might not have lasted long under Magowan.

Beane's crowning moment came when he traded "untouchables" Mulder and Hudson in 2004 to the astonishment of everybody, including the teams he was trading these pitchers to.

Nobody regrets those moves now, except the Cardinals and Braves.

For a direct comparison, note how Sabean didn't appear to even consider trading a declining Schmidt for talent and prospects -- when he could have sold Schmidt at a premium -- at midseason in both 2005 and 2006. One gets the feeling Sabean's action plan of Inaction during both dismal seasons had the overt approval of Magowan.

What did Sabean and Magowan get for keeping him? Two dismal finishes in the NL Worst, and the prospect of a fired-up Dodger named Schmidt striking out 17 Giants when next the two teams meet.  

Gad, what a crappy, obscene outcome.

How good is Beane? Look around and see how many GMs are given a hunk of the franchise as part of their compensation package. Smart guy Lew Wolff doesn't have to meddle in baseball operations, like Magowan obviously does. Wolff's Number One job when he bought the franchise was to make one good baseball decision: turn over the ship to Beane, and pay him handsomely.

And Wolff, no dummy, made Beane the primary Condition of Sale before escrow closed.

Call the Oakland GM by his real name: Billy Franchise.

by Moggeee on Jan 14, 2007 2:58 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Beane vs. Sabean: The contrast is now very sta
"Beane as Giants GM? Don't make me weep at what might have been."

I believe a comparison to the Eddie D. Bill Walsh John McVay 49ers in the 1980s free-market, pre-outcome based socialist salary cap world of the NFL would not be inappropriate.

Save The Pitcher. Save The World

by E Ticket on Jan 14, 2007 3:11 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Beane: Son of Walsh, the holy father
I was going to launch into a Beane-is-Bill-Walsh-Reincarnate thesis, but I had already exceeded my usual two-sentence-post by three novels and a bedtime story.

by Moggeee on Jan 14, 2007 3:20 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Beane: Son of Walsh, the holy father
Was going to ask you about that? Usually you are of the Mel Brooks Drive-By One liner.
Save The Pitcher. Save The World

by E Ticket on Jan 14, 2007 3:29 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I'll stand up to anything but vegetables
On a site with too many long-winded posters (present company a rare exception), my motto is "less is more."

Beane gets very little love on this Giants-tilted site. But he's a once-in-a-generation talent, much like Walsh.

So Beane's preeminence requires a longer treatment. More development of the argument. And despite the fact that I am an unwavering Giants fan, I will hammer the Beane story home.

(Until I am pummeled with baked potatoes.)

by Moggeee on Jan 14, 2007 3:47 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: let's go back to thinking about Zito
You said that Barry Zito dominates because he throws pitches no one else does.  The question I would ask you is, why then DOESN'T he dominate?  Why has he been merely good the past three seasons?

by sharksrog on Jan 15, 2007 10:33 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: let's go back to thinking about Zito
Once the Giants signed Zito,
Fans collectively said, "Neato!"
But with peripherals descending,
And curveball unbending,
Soon we'll realize he's a torpedo.
<(-'.'-)>

by lunaticfridge on Jan 13, 2007 6:13 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, a torpedo
Or kinda flaky, like a Frito

by Moggeee on Jan 13, 2007 11:38 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Yeah, a torpedo
Or full of beans, like a cheap Burrito

by Moggeee on Jan 13, 2007 11:43 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Yeah, a torpedo
Oh
Coming to you by proxy

by howtheyscored on Jan 14, 2007 10:12 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: let's go back to thinking about Zito
Obtuse sarcastic humor that tends to appeal to afficianados of the non sequitor.

1st person: " How did your hearing test go?"
2nd person: "There once was a man from Nantucket, who had big ears and wished for an even bigger nose, and an even bigger dick."

Its what happens when you don't get out of the house very often. Kind of like Napoleon Dynamite, but more nerdy.

Save The Pitcher. Save The World

by E Ticket on Jan 14, 2007 10:34 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Only on McCovey
We're asked to think deeply about Zito, and the thread drifts into limericks, Billy Beane, and soft porn.

Okay. Now let's tackle Iraq.

by Moggeee on Jan 14, 2007 4:01 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Only on McCovey
Just, no shoulder tackles please. I'm sick and tired of seeing crappy shoulder tackles. Hit and wrap, people! Hit and wrap!
Coming to you by proxy

by howtheyscored on Jan 14, 2007 7:58 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

War is Hell
Sounds violent.

I got nothin' against them Viet Cong.

by Moggeee on Jan 14, 2007 11:35 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

More!
The Zito signing might be just as entertaining for the sabermetric debate as for the actual baseball. Here's some further commentary by tangotiger and others.
zhongguo mei you bangqiu

by oldjacket on Jan 13, 2007 6:18 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: let's go back to thinking about Zito
Thanks, O.J. I'm usually skeptical when people use the "but he's not like other players" reasoning for ignoring historical trends, but that .260 career BABIP against righties is pretty remarkable. To be five standard deviations under the mean after facing so many batters, well... I don't know exactly what he's been doing his whole career, but it's getting tougher to call it a fluke.

I'm sure that Sabean's primary motivation for signing Zito was the fact that his BABIP against righties is five standard deviations below the mean despite 3,200 BIP.

"Robb Nen is going to get you" - Benito Santiago to Chipper Jones, 10/7/02

by Pants Man on Jan 13, 2007 11:59 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: let's go back to thinking about Zito
Told you. He just fucking kills righties. :)
Save The Pitcher. Save The World

by E Ticket on Jan 14, 2007 7:51 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: let's go back to thinking about Zito
That's some good reading. Thanks for the heads up.
LicenseToPills: barry bonds says words, they have nothing to do with his thoughts, they are just subjects and predicates in his mental kingdom

by Natto on Jan 14, 2007 1:54 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: let's go back to thinking about Zito
How do the Zen masters do it? When one thinks of Zito, one must first clear ones mind and first think of nothing at all.... hhmmmmmmmm...hhmmmmmm...
With Barry back, what could go wrong?

by Rusty the Mechanical Man on Jan 14, 2007 9:55 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: let's go back to thinking about Zito
A few points about this string of articles and references.:
  1. Arneson argues that there are three Zitos: the three-pitch pitcher of 2000-03, the five-pitch pitcher of 2005-06, and the transitional pitcher of 2004. What jumps out at me about this breakdown is that he was a hell of a lot better in 2000-03. Is he overcomplicating things? Rick Peterson seemed to think so.
  2. Arneson again:
Zito probably goes to the mound with all three key pitches working maybe a dozen times a year. The other 20 or so times, he'll have trouble throwing strikes to varying degrees with one or two pitches.

This part of his game could improve, right? It seems intuitive that a pitcher's ability to find the right release points etc. from one start to the next would become more consistent as he matures.

  1. It's not just his BABiP that is better against right-handed hitters; over his career, he has been better against righties in nearly every way. This bodes well for his future at Mays Field, since lefties are somewhat neutralized by the park anyway.
  2. However, this reverse platoon split seems to have disappeared over the last two years. In 2005 and 2006, the lefty/righty batting lines are more-or-less equal.
  3. I'd really like to know how many outs Zito gets on foul popups. Anyone know how to find such data?

by Evan on Jan 15, 2007 8:17 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: let's go back to thinking about Zito
Oh yeah, another thing: I looked up the BABiP splits for a few pitchers who seem vaguely similar to Zito -- Lowry, Glavine, and Jamie Moyer -- and all of them showed the same reverse-platoon tendency. Maybe it's a changeup thing? The only lefty I could think of with a curve comparable to Zito's -- Shawn Estes -- didn't have the same splits.

by Evan on Jan 15, 2007 8:22 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: let's go back to thinking about Zito
"Zito probably goes to the mound with all three key pitches working maybe a dozen times a year."

That is any pitcher at any level. Its a variation on the maxim:  "1/3 of the time you have great stuff. A 1/3 of the time its spotty. Another 1/3 of the time you have nothing." Kind of paraphrased and a generality.

The key is to push as many of the 1/3 average outings into the win column.  That is something that Estes could not do but Glavine can and we're going to find out with Lowry this year.

Save The Pitcher. Save The World

by E Ticket on Jan 15, 2007 9:01 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to the SB Nation blog about San Francisco Giants.
Start posting about the Giants »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Timgoodavatar_small
Tim's misdemeanor charges have been dropped
Daisy_small
Human after all (Timmy)
Lincecum_small
Lukewarm Stove: Trades, Transactions, and Troster Trideas.
Lincecum_small
McCovey Awards: Outstanding Newcomer
Lincecum_small
McCovey Awards IV

Recent FanPosts

Burnt_small
Hometown Discount
Hatethj20776_small
2009 Elias Rankings
Lincecum_small
McCovey Awards: Best Fanpost
Hatoyama-southpark_small
Which Old, Declining outfielder would you like?
Small
Who Should The Giants Acquire to Play OF In 2010?
Small
Time for a Semi-Rebuild?
Small
A REAL realistic view of Giants 2010
Olds1_small
Who will be behind the dish?
Small
Kevin Kouzmanoff: Cheap Power Upgrade

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

SPONSORS


Overlord

174246766_ea2fd78204_small Grant

Minions

Fawlty_small WalrusMan

Dog2_small kenshin1

Lincecum_small Natto

Howtheyscoredcat_small howtheyscored

Goofus_small Goofus

Det_7193_small jponry

Minor League Guru

Small steve S