Cain
It's a little too early to start proclaiming things about Matt Cain. The pratfalls and foibles of young pitchers throughout history have been run into the ground on this site. Cain is a promising young pitcher. Let's just leave it at that, and not get nuts here.
I mean, you know, let's not go overboard. There's a fine line. He has a great arm, and he's been fantastic lately. His confidence is obvious in recent starts. He still hasn't really scratched the surface of his curveball, which about once a game looks like the greatest breaking pitch in the history of the sport, and that just highlights how effective he can be with his fastball. So let's keep things in perspective.

Okay. Now that you bring it up, a villager outside of San Francisco did see Cain's face on a tortilla. It'd be easy to read a lot into that. But let's not get out of hand. He's just a good young pitcher. I'll start the day off with a simple, Colbertish question:
Matt Cain. Greatest young Giants pitcher of my lifetime, or greatest young Giants pitcher of your lifetime?
Going back in recent Giants history, it's hard to find an apt comparison among promising young pitchers from the past. Here's a short list, with links to the minor league histories of the pitchers. It's bound to be incomplete, so go to the Baseball Cube and bring up what I've missed.
The list, with two names left off intentionally:
One thing that's not right to do is play the "Giants are cursed"-card when these names are brought up. A lot of these pitchers had relatively successful careers, and most helped their teams win for extended stretches. Except for Estes. Well, even Estes had 1997, a season that opens the first chapter of the forthcoming new book, "Why to be Suspicious of Freakishly Low Totals for Hits Allowed: Or, How I Stopped Worrying and Learned to Remain on Second Base." Just because there isn't a Hall of Famer, or even a Hall of Very Gooder, in the bunch doesn't mean this is a list of cautionary tales.
But the comparisons break down quickly. Garrelts and D'Acquisto had control problems that surpassed anything ever exhibited by Cain, and rounded into form at a later age. Hammaker had the control but not the strikeout numbers, even after accounting for a different era, and the combination of fine control/slightly above-average strikeout numbers would also describe Williams. Downs and Estes weren't exactly kids when they found their first success. Foppert's prospect-era fastball is more something for cryptozoologists to discuss, as he never showed anything like that in the majors.
The closest comparisons, in my opinion, which really aren't even that close:
Montefusco zipped through the system on his way to a decent career, but was three years older than Cain before he was even in the system. That leaves Torres, who is the closest comp for Cain when just comparing age and numbers. Including Torres isn't meant to be some M. Night Shamalyan twist at the end of the post. Without knowing Torres personally, it'd be inappropriate to speculate that he was radically different from Cain at the same age when it came to maturity and confidence. However, Torres was radically different from Cain at the same age when it came to maturity and confidence.
Pointless exercise, for sure, but it just might highlight exactly what we're watching. Cain's combination of past minor-league success and current success, especially when considering his youth, is pretty much unparalleled in recent Giants history. Comparisons are useless, but watching the guy throw is amazing. I, for one, welcome our new flame-throwing overlord.
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51 comments
Comments
Re: Cain
by TimSchultz on Sep 15, 2006 11:28 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Cain
Now if we can just get Cain two starts against the Yankees in the World Series ...
by non sequitur on Sep 15, 2006 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Cain
Thanks for bringing up Torres. Honestly, I hear his name and wonder how the guy is still in the league. I don't know who was more at fault that horrible day 13 years ago, and I don't care. I don't think I've ever seen a beating that bad. Plus, we had someone else available (looking at the roster, it may have been Bill Swift), that was much better, and had the experience to get through an ENORMOUS game.
Not to mention that after that game the whore I was dating broke up with me. I was more devestated by the Giants losing, but I got over it faster.
by SmokinZBT on Sep 15, 2006 11:35 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I keep telling people
And yes, Cain was pegged as a guy with a high ceiling from the start.
by Nick Schulte on Sep 15, 2006 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Cain
as for Cain, I don't want to jinx anything but here's the best comparison I can think of: http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/S/Tom-Seaver.shtml
by nick on Sep 15, 2006 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Cain
I remember Seaver as one of the great strikeout pitchers of my era and yet his K/9 rate was under 7 his first two seasons, he had only 1 season with it over 9, 3 total over 8, though he had a number of them at 7.50-7.80, but his K/9 took a permanant plunge at age 34 (oops, Schmidt's age) that he never recovered from.
He was able to do as well as he could because his BB/9 was so low (consistently 2's, often low 2's) and his HR rate was very low, in 0.4-0.7 range and his H/9 was very very low. Cain has the low H/9 but much higher BB/9 (except for recently) and HR/9.
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Sep 15, 2006 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Cain
My most vivid memory is of tuning in to Voice of America to get the score of the fateful Sunday 10/3/93 game. It was around 5 pm Monday afternoon (in Asia), and I was sitting there with another expat friend and his wife. Naturally they were from Atlanta and were big Braves fans. Oh well, at least they weren't Dodger fans. At the appointed hour, the VOA sports report came on, the awful tale was told and it was crushing. Good times.
Anyway, here are the Giants' starting pitchers down the stretch--the last 10 games of '93--and how they fared.
- 9/24 SD (W) Sanderson, 5.2 IP - 3 ER
- 9/25 SD (W) Torres, 8.0 IP - 0 ER
- 9/26 SD (W) Swift, 8.0 IP - 1 ER
- 9/27 SD (W) Burkett, 7.1 IP - 4 ER
- 9/28 CO (W) Hickerson, 5.0 IP - 0 ER
- 9/29 CO (L) Torres, 2.2 IP - 4 ER
- 9/30 LA (W) Swift, 7.0 IP - 1 ER
- 10/1 LA (W) Burkett, 5.0 IP - 3 ER
- 10/2 LA (W) Hickerson, 2.0 IP - 2 ER (followed by Brantley, 4.0 IP - 0 ER)
- 10/3 LA (L) Torres, 3.1 IP - 3 ER
OK, I know I'm going to probably be drawn and quartered for saying this, but I've never quite understood all the rancor towards Torres. Some of it, without question...but not all of it. The guy was young--he was immature--but he actually gave the Giants some good starts down the stretch. It was just those last two....
But again, why did Dusty think Torres would be equal to the task of starting this last game? I've never understood this. Sanderson was a veteran, had pitched well (better than Deshaies, IMO) and ostensibly would've been better suited to handle the pressure of this game.
Sanderson * 48.1 IP / 48 H / 7 BB / 36 SO / 4-2 / 3.51 ERA
Deshaies * 17.0 IP / 24 H / 6 BB / 5 SO / 2-2 / 4.24 ERA
I wondered if maybe Sanderson was injured, but I notice he threw a scoreless, hitless inning that day just before giving way to Righetti.
Maybe someone can clue me in to some info of which I've heretofore been unaware. Until then, I'll offer up a belated "FREE SCOTT SANDERSON!!"
by tobias on Sep 15, 2006 6:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Cain
by Roger on Sep 18, 2006 9:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Cain
by Roger on Sep 18, 2006 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hijack
The Padres don't have a day off left. The blues have last Monday of the season. With 2-2, its on the Giants to do something (oh, dear), but at least the other two only tread. Since we are equally behind in the loss column, I can't think of any better solution.
Anone?
by SmokinZBT on Sep 15, 2006 11:38 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Hijack
by EliminateMe on Sep 15, 2006 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Hijack
by TimSchultz on Sep 15, 2006 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Cain
by TimSchultz on Sep 15, 2006 11:40 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Cain
There's a lot of fun you can have right now with Cain's stats.
by mxmob33 on Sep 15, 2006 11:49 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Cain
While I'm at it, I've pencilled myself in for TWO Super Lotto jackpots, too.
by Skaldheim on Sep 15, 2006 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Cain
by mxmob33 on Sep 15, 2006 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll play the straight man
by Pants Man on Sep 15, 2006 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
like the lady once said:
by wilriv21 on Sep 15, 2006 3:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: like the lady once said:
"Two Asian Chicks..."
by victor frankenstein on Sep 15, 2006 6:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: I'll play the straight man
by groug on Sep 15, 2006 8:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hammaker
by dangjackson on Sep 15, 2006 12:00 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Cain
by my1gorilla on Sep 15, 2006 12:17 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Cain
Cain Lincecum Marichal/Perry
Cain/Lincecum Marichal/Perry
sounds so good
by wilriv21 on Sep 15, 2006 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Cain
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Sep 15, 2006 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Next year
(Kuip actually said it that way during a postgame wrap.)
by hometownboy on Sep 16, 2006 1:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Next year
by Lyle on Sep 16, 2006 8:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Cain
by nostocksjustbonds on Sep 15, 2006 12:31 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Cain
by wilriv21 on Sep 15, 2006 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Cain
But, my main point in posting that question, really is whether or not the Giants front office and manager (whoever it may be) will consider Cain a top of the rotation guy next year going into spring training. If so, the question won't be whether he's a top of the rotation guy because they didn't re-sign Schmidt, but whether they don't re-sign Schmidt because Cain is the going to be the man at the top of the rotation.
If so, it could make for a very interesting offseason. If they think that Cain is the man starting next year, then they won't feel the need to overpay for a Schmidt or Zito/premium FA and may settle for Lilly-type cheaper-FA.
the rotation could then look like:
Cain
Morris
Free Agent (like a Ted Lilly)
Lowry
Sanchez/Hennessy/Wright/Corriea committee
they may be a lot to put on a youngster like Cain, but then again there aren't too many youngsters like Cain who don't act like youngsters.
by nostocksjustbonds on Sep 15, 2006 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Cain
Morris (out of deference)
Cain (true ace)
Lowry
Ted Lilly or similar FA
Sanchez
wouldn't surprise me IF they spent the available money on a worthwhile hitter. And as everyone has pointed out, the FA pickings are slim this winter. Lee's age and slowness concern me, although he can certainly pile up the RBIs. Soriano is such a wild card, I don't know what to think about such a free swinger. I'd hope we try to attract Aramis Ramirez if he opts out of Chicago's quagmire - and that would make me feel much better about letting Schmidt go.
As I've said repeatedly here: mortgage the farm and hock the jewelry - the babyfaced wunderkind is the real deal.
by Lyle on Sep 16, 2006 8:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Cain
GS IP H K BB ERA BAA HR BB/9 K/9 GB/FB
Cain 30 186 143 176 84 3.75 .208 16 4.1 8.5 .79
Bonderman 32 184 168 168 73 4.89 .242 24 3.6 8.2 1.44
That's an eerily close season, especially if you focus on the peripherals. Cain's apparent ability to keep the ball in the yard a bit better than the age-21 Bonderman is likely due more to luck than anything else, as Cain is an extreme flyball pitcher relative to Bonderman.
I'd be very happy to see Cain develop along the lines of Bonderman, particularly with regards to Bonderman's steadily improving control. He wouldn't be a Cy Young candidate right away, but he'd be very good pitcher, and still just 23.
by Tom S on Sep 15, 2006 1:17 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Cain
Part of the HR thingy is AT&T has historically dampened HR hitting, so that contributes to Cain doing that, but then again, Detroit's stadium is an extreme pitcher's park - hence his numbers are actually worse than they appear - whereas AT&T the past two years have been neutral at best or a hitters park by other measures.
Given how well Cain is pitching right now, at the end of the year when everyone should have a book on him, why wouldn't he be a Cy Young candidate right away?
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Sep 15, 2006 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Cain
The park factor difference isn't as big as you might think. Pac Bell/SB/ATT has played essentially neutral over the last three years, whereas Comerica has been a bit of a pitcher's park.
ATT Comerica
2003 98/98 98/98
2004 103/103 96/97
2005 99/100 95/95
The difference hasn't been huge.
I'm not saying he won't be a Cy Young candidate right away, I'm just keeping my expectations a bit in check so that I won't be disappointed if he's not a Cy Young candidate right away. Given all that can happen to young pitchers, I would be quite happy with Bonderman-like development. Look at Felix Hernandez this year versus last. I think he's developing pretty nicely and handling the league nicely for a 20 year old, but expectations of him became seriously overblown after half a season of dominance last year. I don't want to set the bar so high for Cain that he'll be considered a failure if he's anything shy of Tom Seaver next year.
by Tom S on Sep 15, 2006 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Cain
Thanks for the numbers. Still, for a 4.50 ERA pitcher at AT&T, it would drop 7% to 4.19; a 5.00 ERA would drop to 4.65; a 4.00 ERA would drop to 3.72.
I guess I'm kind of odd, I can accept that I'm hoping for a Cy Young type of performance but as long as he develops then I won't be disappointed; he would have to regress, like Lowry this season, to disappoint me. That is, I can acknowledge his potential understanding that there's a learning curve and development time that might still be necessary. Hence I would expect an improvement over this season but feel that there is the potential for Cy Young once he puts it all together.
Ehhh, my word choice has been poor this year, it's been a rough year, hope I'm being clear enough here.
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Sep 15, 2006 10:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Time Stamp
Or is Grant just a time traveller visiting us a few hours ahead of his time? Sounds like a movie, you can get Keanu Reeves and Sandra Bullock and, naw, no one would ever believe that...
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Sep 15, 2006 1:21 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Time Stamp
by Nick Schulte on Sep 15, 2006 2:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: The Time Stamp
by EliminateMe on Sep 15, 2006 3:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Since we're Cain fluffing...
by mxmob33 on Sep 15, 2006 2:10 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Cain
Kent Brockman at his best.
And yes, Cain resembles perfectly the picture of the ant-lord taped behind the news desk.
by tdenevi on Sep 15, 2006 2:35 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Tortilla thing is a total hoax.
by EliminateMe on Sep 15, 2006 3:40 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Cain
by biff pocoroba on Sep 15, 2006 3:48 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Cain
However, looking over his game stats, I think the unearned run spoiled his scoreless inning streak, so he "only" has 17.2 consecutive scoreless innings pitched.
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Sep 15, 2006 10:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This post made me hungry....
by xanthan on Sep 15, 2006 4:30 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Cain
by Lyle on Sep 16, 2006 8:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fly balls
Is that because his stuff is so good that people aren't hitting the ball well? Or is it because he's lucky?
His walk rate is a little high, too, but I think that will come down with experience.
Also, I love Matt Cain.
by Dan from NM on Sep 15, 2006 7:56 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Fly balls
The more I hear about this "stuff" though, I wonder how uniformly true that 10% is the mean that every pitcher falls back to.
As someone noted somewhere here, once he figured things out, his walk rate has been in the low 2's.
I love him too, I'll wrassle you for him! :^)
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Sep 15, 2006 10:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Batters mutter this in a slow walk to the dugout
Also:
"Cain throws so hard, the ball comes across the plate looking like a tortilla shot from a cannon, with an image of Abraham Lincoln etched on it."
by Moggeee on Sep 16, 2006 10:40 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

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