Just Another Sad Hillenbrand Diary... With Numbers!

I repeat: the difference we should be analyzing from here on out is not that between Hilly/Niekro, but Hilly/Sweeney. Here is what they've done so far:

Hillenbrand: 1.1 WARP (80 games, 316 PAs, God knows how much DHing kept the WARP from sinking, as he's firmly below average--1B--to awful--3B--with the leather)
Sweeney: 1.3 WARP (73 games, 215 PAs, defense in LF actually hurts him, but defense at 1B has been excellent)
(Sh**s and Giggles) Niekro: 0.4 WARP (52 games, 191 PAs, best defensive 1B in the game)

Chulk: 4.66 FIP
Accardo 2.50 FIP(!!!)(For reference, of NL relievers who have thrown more than 35 IP, that's THIRD, and it's roughly in line with Bobby Jenks and Scot Shields's FIPs)

Using more HardballTimes metrics, not taking fielding into account:

Sweeney: 28 RC in 215 PAs (5.4 RC/G)
Accardo: 16 PRC in 40.3 IP
Total up to date: 44

Hillenbrand: 38 RC in 319 PAs (5.0 RC/G)
Chulk: 7 PRC in 24 IP
Total up to date: 45

The RC are essentially equal, except that if you adjust for playing time, the Giants got the short end of this one. To boot, the Giants have gotten the production out of their 1Bs that they can pretty much expect out of Hilly. IT'S NOT AN UPGRADE, AND WE GAVE UP ACCARDO.

It's arguable that Sweeney is the better option at 1B going forward for this season and that Hillenbrand is the one who should be coming off the bench (Hilly for lefties, Finley for righties). But, clearly, we didn't get this guy to do that; Hilly's gonna start, and thus we're screwed. In order to profit from this trade, I think Wilson/Sanchez/Chulk(?) will have to significantly outproduce Accardo, because Hilly MIGHT only be the slightest of improvements over Sweeney at 1B (since it's probably too much to expect an intelligent platoon). Best-case scenario in the next few weeks is giving Sanchez a starting role at SOME level where he shows his A-ball performance wasn't a fluke (Can we start the Free Sanchez! campaign now? What about the Wright for Bullpen! campaign?), change of scenery turns Hilly into a right handed modern day Don Mattingly with the stick for the second half, Wilson's increased role embiggens him, Bonds's injury is just a flesh wound, and Lincecum blows through the minors into the bigs to make Morris expendable before the end of August, leading to a trade of Benitez, Morris, and Wright for Mariano Rivera, Philip Hughes, Jessica Beale, Jessica Alba, and Cillian Murphy. In that scenario, we'd win the West by about two games, since the Dodgers will get a Jake Westbrook type pitcher before the deadline to give us a run for our money, and we'd all be better people because we'd have Beale, Alba, and Murphy to walk around and simply be beautiful.