AL Central

by Grant Brisbee on Mar 20, 2006 1:37 PM PST in News

A team is going to come out of nowhere this season. Everything's going to break right for them, whether those breaks come with supernaturally good health, an unexpectedly great record in one-run games, or every player playing up to their potential. It doesn't matter what tool you use. Some people will use PECOTA-based projections, some will run the numbers through a computer simulation 100,000 times, and some will fall back on irresponsible guesses pulled from unspeakable places. Even with a variety of different methods employed by a variety of different prognosticators, there's going to be one team that is severely underestimated by every amateur and professional Nostragammons in the baseball world.

Once this truism becomes apparent, it still doesn't do you much good. It'd be like patting yourself on the back for predicting a keno drawing. Not predicting the right numbers, mind you, but just that a drawing will occur. "See! Ten numbers were drawn, and the odds of those specific numbers being drawn were astronomical! Amazing." Luckily, there are just a few teams in baseball, so a wild guess can look smart even if it flies in the face of almost every piece of empirical data collected. Something's going to happen with one or two of about 15 to 20 pseudo-contenders, so there's no sense in playing it safe:

Tigers, 90-72
White Sox, 89-73
Indians, 88-74
Twins, 82-80
Royals, 50-112

Again, almost everything would have to break right for Detroit. Magglio Ordonez would have to contribute, as would Pudge Rodriguez. A lot of young players would have to develop in front of us all like Sea Monkeys. The injuries would have to disappear. Still, there are a few reasons why the Tigers are my W.A.G. for the coming season:

Ordonez and Rodriguez can't contribute much less, but they are both capable of contributing a whole lot more.
Jeremy Bonderman is talented enough to take a big leap, and the Tigers also have a polished prospect in Justin Verlander who could emerge like a young Matt Morris did in 1997. Toss in the possibility of some fluke performances from inning-munchers like Kenny Rogers and Nate Robertson, and it isn't hard to imagine a staff that could overachieve for 162 games.
There is a whole bunch of young talent on the club, and some of it is going to blow up this year. Curtis Granderson, Craig Monroe, and Chris Shelton have already proven some degree of worth to a big league team, and Omar Infante is better than what he showed last season. Only Brandon Inge really played over his head last year, and he's young enough to hope that was more development than fluke.
There is veteran talent beyond Ordonez and Rodriguez, as well. Dmitri Young and Carlos Guillen can both be above average for their positions.

The White Sox have the best team on paper Monday-Wednesday, with the Indians making me change my mind from Thursday-Saturday. I'd probably rank the Twins above the Tigers by talent alone, and the possibility of a dominant young rotation gives the Twins the talent crown on Sundays. The Tigers have some enigmas in the bullpen, and a dicey staff behind their ace. More importantly, the lineup is filled with fragile players, young players, and inconsistent players. A lot would have to fall into place for the Tigers to win, especially in a division as competent as the AL Central.

But that's the fun of the preseason. If I'm right, I'm a genius. If I'm wrong, no one pays attention to preseason predictions. At the very least, the Tigers will be competitive. I'd pick them to win the NL West by about 32 games.

Also, the Royals aren't good.

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AL Central Predictions

Surely, last year's ChiSox juggernaut was a one-time bottle rocket that crashes back to earth this year (yes, it will; and no, I didn't call you Shirley). Although getting Jim Thome to DH and hit behind Konerko was a good move, and trading Borchard for Thornton was probably smart, I just see too many career years last year and not enough improvement this year. I believe our sabermetric friends call that a regression to the mean; I just call it a lucky team no longer lucky. Strangely, like Grant, I too like the Sox on Tuesdays - but that's about the only day of the week. Podsednik will get a nagging injury, sapping his one value to the team (other than his hilarious clubhouse stories of the Sausage Races in Milwaukee. AJ will (fill in your own favorite epithet/body part joke here). Joe Crede will realize he's Joe Crede and can't hit. Bobby Jenks will resume his advanced pitching studies under Professor Eric Threets. And Mark Buehrle will start the long ride on the Reuter Railroad to Reality. You may now insert the proverbial fork.

Who can win the Central? My guess is Cleveland. Jhonny Peralta should be your starting SS on your fantasy team; if you chose anyone else you're just not paying attention. Although the lineup isn't star-studded, there are enough good hitters to give anyone trouble. I predict their relief staff will be that one relief staff each year that does surprisingly well with several nobodies - Wickman will soldier through with lots of ugly saves, Mota will rediscover his LA thang, Danny Graves will rediscover his Cincinnati....chili, and Scott Sauerbeck will become more than a LOOGY. The Indians' starting pitching isn't brilliant, but Sabathia and Lee are solid; and if even one of Byrd, Westbrook, or Johnson does well, they can win this very balanced division.

Parma Indians of Shaker Heights: 90-72
Cicero White Sox of Chicago: 86-76 (Tues. record: 20-5)
Grosse Point Tigers of Windsor, Ontario: 85-77
St. Paul Twins of Minneapolis: 85-77 (Liriano wins 10)
Overland Park Royals of Kansas City: also competed

by Lyle @ McCovey Chronicles on Mar 20, 2006 2:40 PM PST reply actions

Re: AL Central Predictions

Love the team names...so what does that make our beloved Gigantes? The Daly City Giants of Colma?

by EliminateMe on Mar 20, 2006 3:33 PM PST up reply actions

Re: AL Central Predictions

The China Basin / Mission Bay Giants of Regentrificationville.

-- Born Yesterday

by thatdog on Mar 20, 2006 3:54 PM PST up reply actions

Re: AL Central Predictions

The Outer Sunset Géants de South of Market of Russian Hill.

That's too long to fit on a Neighborhoodie.

by tk on Mar 20, 2006 3:57 PM PST up reply actions

Re: AL Central

You guys that can get fired up talking about the A.L. Central are better baseball fans than I am.

My girlfriend drafted me because I did well on the the wonderlick test

by Goofus on Mar 20, 2006 5:16 PM PST reply actions

Re: AL Central

If it's any consolation, I'm a worse baseball fan than you are.

by EliminateMe on Mar 20, 2006 5:49 PM PST up reply actions

Re: AL Central

Hey, I'm worse than both of you put together. I'm just mailing this crap in.

by Grant Brisbee on Mar 20, 2006 5:54 PM PST up reply actions

If OBP still rules ...

... Cleveland is not really that good. In 2006, can they expect more than a .335 OBP from 3B Aaron Boone, 1B Ben Broussard, RF Casey Blake, 2B Ron Belliard or maybe even LF Jason Michaels (if his numbers decline playing every day instead of being a lefty masher)? Peralta, Sizemore, Hafner and Victor Martinez are great, but I just don't know that they are going to get enough baserunners to score enough to win their division.

Then again, when one looks to Minnesota and realizes that the only regular player they had last year with an OBP over .338 was Joe Mauer, you realize why they struggled to score so few runs. And this was in a year too in which the team's all-star centerfielder had a career high in OBP too (Torii Hunter .337 OBP).

The White Sox bullpen is beginning to look pretty thin with mixed reports on Bobby Jenks and back problems possibly pushing Dustin Hermanson to retirement. That leaves Neal Cotts, Cliff Politte, and who else? I guess right now that would be Brandon McCarthy and Matt Thornton. There are no other pitchers on their 40-man roster with any major league experience. Their NRIs include Armando Almanzo, Javier Lopez, Vladimir Nunez, Hideo Nomo and Tim Redding.

by steve S on Mar 20, 2006 5:34 PM PST reply actions

Re: If OBP still rules ...

I think Marte takes over for Boone soon, but a .335 OBP would be a small victory even from Marte.

What do you think of the Tigers in this context, Steve?

by Grant Brisbee on Mar 20, 2006 5:56 PM PST up reply actions

Re: If OBP still rules ...

I agree, Grant, Marte should be starting at 3B by June (of course, Foppert should be starting for us, too).

And Steve, I think you made my point. There is no dominant team in the division - assuming the ChiSox supply of pixie dust has run out.

by Lyle @ McCovey Chronicles on Mar 21, 2006 5:53 AM PST up reply actions

Re: If OBP still rules ...

Grant, I think you make an excellent point. Is the AL Central kinda like trying to decide who is the Giants 4th best prospect after Cain, Sanders and EME?

I do like the White Sox with their lineup, but their defense could take a big hit with Rowand gone and Podsednik a bit gimpy. Mackowiak is a great backup for that team, though. They have the starting pitching depth, but the bullpen suddenly seems weak.

But there are a lot of things to like about the Tigers too, although I am not a Magglio Ordonez fan at this point. They don't necessarily have to get much from Verlander. It sounds like he may head back to the minors to work on his off-speed pitches, but Zumaya has apparently looked very good this spring. Is the weakness for the Tigers at this point the bullpen, although it would be improved by Verlander in the rotation and Zumaya in the bullpen if that works out?

by steve S on Mar 22, 2006 1:20 PM PST up reply actions

Re: If OBP still rules ...

Dear Kenny,
I noticed that you are hit with an unlucky bout of the injury bug in your bullpen and I thought I would call and offer some assistance as I have more proven closers (TM) and veteran set up guys than I can handle. As you are being burdened with an overabundance of starters, I would be willing to take that tall, awkward, and dangerously young McCarthy kid off your hands. For this service, I could proven you with All-Star Armando Benitez or Tyler Walker coming off a career high in saves after adapting from starter to a flame-throwing stopper. But wait! There is more! I can also give you veteran left-hander Steve Kline, a sure fire bet to liven up any clubhouse. And, his pending free agency means he is playing for a contract! I know, I know that sounds like a great bargain, and I must be crazy to give up this much. But wait! I'm not done yet? Worried about starting a ROOKIE in CF? I have just the solution! Yet ANOTHER piece to your future in speedy CF Jason Ellison. That right folks, hustle, speed and defense all in one package! All for the low, low price of a 6th starter with little major league experience. How can you turn that down?

Sincerely,
Brian S.

If someone asks you to take an extreme tequila shot, *say no*.

by irwin on Mar 20, 2006 6:00 PM PST up reply actions

Re: If OBP still rules ...

I especially like your .sig if you read it as a postscript to the letter.

by Grant Brisbee on Mar 20, 2006 6:47 PM PST up reply actions

Re: If OBP still rules ...

Wow, you're right. I am even funnier than I planned. But that isn't saying much.

If someone asks you to take an extreme tequila shot, *say no*.

by irwin on Mar 20, 2006 9:49 PM PST up reply actions

Re: If OBP still rules ...

Dear Brian,

Thanks, but no.

--Kenny

by Kitspool on Mar 20, 2006 7:21 PM PST up reply actions

Re: If OBP still rules ...

P.S. What's an extreme... oh. Ozzie just did one. Yikes.

"When I think of how many times the Enemy has tried to kill Gary Busey..."

by multiphasic on Mar 20, 2006 10:34 PM PST up reply actions

..or perhaps...

Dear Brian,
Hey buddy, I didn't just fall off the turnip truck! I'm the GM of the reigning world champs (a claim you almost could have made in '02, with a smarter manager)!
Anyway, I know what you're trying to pull. You're hiding that slugging Linden kid from me. Swap him for Ellison and I'll think about it. Because, you know, I ain't too sure about Thornton, and we really need a replacement for Borchard.

Regards,
Kenny

by Lyle @ McCovey Chronicles on Mar 21, 2006 5:58 AM PST reply actions

Re: AL Central

The AL Central and AL in general, as much as it pains me to say this as a hard-core Gyro fan, is more interesting to follow. The AL Central not so long ago was the NL West -- without the beaches. A few aging superstars, hasbeens, never-was' never-gonna-be's malcontents, marginal younger talent and less interesting than watching aroogalah commercials for the umpteenth time.

Today, except for Kansas City, every single team there would march through the NL West like Sherman marched through Georgia I suspect.

i porked my username, but wtfgas anyway?

by E Ticket on Mar 21, 2006 8:07 AM PST reply actions