Cainmunity Procaintions: Matt Cain (Cain? Cain.)

by Grant on Feb 9, 2006 12:33 PM PST in News Comment 34 comments

Matt Cain is one of the more reliable litmus tests for Giants-related optimism. If you're excited about San Francisco's chances in the NL West, you probably have Cain down for an ERA in the threes. If you think the team is going to flounder, the projected struggles of an overextended rookie are likely a big part of the problem. Point and Counterpoint are working things out, so we'll go to the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly:

The Good: Cain had a seven start introduction to the majors, and was as impressive as the scriptures had foretold.

The Bad: A lot of his success as a Giant was due to a ridiculously low number of hits allowed. That kind of hit rate was likely a fluke.

The Good: There were a couple of starts where Cain featured little more than a fastball, and the hitters still weren't comfortable.

The Bad: The breaking pitches were inconsistent, with the true bite of his best breaking pitch a rare sight.

The Good: There isn't a bad thing to be said about him, as far as the scouts are concerned. The stuff's there, the makeup's good, and there isn't too much pressure on him at the back of a rotation.

The Bad: That wacky walk rate, which is a frustrating thing to watch a young pitcher overcome. Shawn Estes, Russ Ortiz, and Joe Nathan all had control issues when they were first inserted to the rotation, and only Nathan was able to fight through the control struggles for his career. Apples (Ortiz, Nathan), oranges (Cain), and Corn Flakes (Estes), to be sure, but high walk rates are usually one of the biggest obstacles for young pitchers.

The Ugly: Randy Johnson.

A good comp for Cain would be the career path of Jeremy Bonderman; great stuff, kinks to work out, and a steady progression. With players like Prince Fielder, Jeremy Hermidia, and Conor Jackson slated to get regular playing time, it's hard to write that Cain is a front-runner for Rookie of the Year, but he's the Giants best shot in decades.

Matt Cain

IP: 187
ERA: 4.38
K: 159
BB: 78

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Re: Cainmunity Procaintions: Matt Cain (Cain? Cain

IP: 210
ERA: 3.49
K: 200
BB: 80

I'm bullish on the kid. I don't want to see him throw that many innings, but I don't trust Felipe.

by Skaldheim on Feb 9, 2006 12:58 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Deeper Thoughts

By the way, this prediction does not mean I am optimistic about the Giants winning the NL West. To the contrary, I think the lineup is going to be gutted by injuries to Bonds, Alou and Durham.

I am also mindful that recent Giants history is littered with the burnt-out remains of hopes we placed in young pitchers. Fare thee well, Ainsworth, Jensen, Vogelson, Williams and others. But this tragedy has to end sometime, and by God, I say it will be this year! Lowry and Cain will deliver us and avenge their fallen brethren!

They can take our hopes, but they can never take...our PROSPECTS!!

(Why am I painted blue now?)

by Skaldheim on Feb 9, 2006 1:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

At least you....

didn't get dressed up for nothin'

there's no fun in fundamentalism

by kenshin1 on Feb 9, 2006 1:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Deeper Thoughts

You mean why are you painted black and orange - blue, how could you be painted blue (with all due respect to William Wallace).

by APGiantsFan on Feb 10, 2006 5:28 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Deeper Thoughts

No wonder I could never get behind that movie. Something always bothered me about it, but I couldn't pin it down until now. I guess I just couldn't care about a buncha medieval Dodgers fans...

by Skaldheim on Feb 10, 2006 9:25 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Cain Cain Cain

IP: 200 even. Yay.
ERA: 3.85
K: 175
BB: 75

His feature breaking pitch is the curveball, right? Hopefully its rarity/ineffectiveness has been suitably addressed in the offseason. Spring Training needs to arrive already.

by non sequitur on Feb 9, 2006 1:01 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Cainmunity

Matt Cain is the most wonderful, exciting, and best prospect known to the history of baseball... :)

by Kent on Feb 9, 2006 1:05 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Boooooooooooooooo to the puns

Yay to Cain in 06

197 Ip
213 K
73 BB

ERA 3.33
W-L 11-10 [ Benitez screws him]

This is an exercise in the power of positive thinking.

The Dodgers ARE evil.

by irwin on Feb 9, 2006 1:13 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Cain't you fellers believe?

I think the Giants will treat Cain like the precious commodity he is, so I expect a few missed starts during the season due to overprotectiveness - he'll pull a muscle sneezing, get eyestrain from rookie hazing (sorting through Barry's hate mail), etc. So:

IP: 176
ERA: 3.95
K: 149
BB: 81
W-L: 12-9 (Irwin is right, Alces will screw him)
BAA: .255

I think he'll be everything we could reasonably hope for from a 21-year-old rookie, and will provide several exciting glimpses of the Cy Young award that awaits him in the future. And then he'll get hammered a few times out and the numbers will look bad. But much more good than bad. Mortgage the house, hock the jewelry, and put your money on the baby-faced wunderkind. He. could. go. all. the. way.

by Lyle on Feb 9, 2006 2:12 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

God only knows...

...but put me down for

IP: 165
ERA: 3.80
K: 125
BB: 70

"Robb Nen is going to get you" - Benito Santiago to Chipper Jones, 10/7/02

by Pants Man on Feb 9, 2006 2:13 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Cainsistent

187 IP
3.80 ERA
140 K
72 BB

Why can't we get anyone good?

by WalrusMan on Feb 9, 2006 2:20 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Cainmunity Procaintions: Matt

200 IP
3.40 ERA
162 K
72 BB

Lowry and Cain and pray for ... hm... Snow? Power outage? An offday? Seems like there's a better word.

Saving countless runs with my defense

by lyricalkiller on Feb 9, 2006 2:26 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Cainmunity Procaintions: Matt Cain (Cain? Cain

I think this is an optimistic prediction, given that he is 22. He will get better from here.

IP: 185
ERA: 3.95
K: 170
BB: 77
H: 178
W-L: 12-9

by out machine on Feb 9, 2006 2:27 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: the greatest prospect ever

Gawd, I hate agreeing with everyone, but here's my numbers.

IP: 175
ERA: 3.90
K: 160
BB:80
W-L: 11-7

Matt Cain is the greatest prospect ever... ;)

by Sayhey on Feb 9, 2006 3:21 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Cainmunity Procaintions: Matt Cain (Cain? Cain

alou finally goes completely over the edge.

IP 486
era 12.94
k: 13
bb 314
W-L 20-2

at seasons end, young cain's reach will be 284 inches and earn him a spot in guiness book of world records. BRILLIANT!

i porked my username, but wtfgas anyway?

by E Ticket on Feb 9, 2006 3:30 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Cainmunity Procaintions: Matt Cain

Wait, optimistic is having his ERA in the threes? Then I better re-evaluate, because I had his ERA and WHIP adding up to something in the threes.

As for Point and Counrepoint, I think they're through -- I read in Us Weekly that Counterpoint was seeen canoodling with Jessica Simpson at Skybar.

"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f***ing amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK

by Josh from Hollywood on Feb 9, 2006 4:05 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I could...

never figure out who the dude was

there's no fun in fundamentalism

by kenshin1 on Feb 9, 2006 4:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: I could...

Well I'm still trying to figure out who ate the strawberries. clink ... clink... clink...

by Sayhey on Feb 9, 2006 4:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I always thought Counterpoint was female

and not a dude

by Nick Schulte on Feb 9, 2006 4:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: I always thought Counterpoint was female

Yes, she was, as in, "Jane you ignorant s***!"

Not that there's anything wrong with that :^)

Go Giants!!!

by Martin BiasedGiantsFanatic on Feb 9, 2006 4:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I reread the...

point/counterpoint pieces and have to agree with you about counterpoint being female

there's no fun in fundamentalism

by kenshin1 on Feb 9, 2006 6:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I just think it's funny that you actually went

back and read them. So I went back and did the same.

by Nick Schulte on Feb 9, 2006 7:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Cainmunity Procaintions: Matt Cain (Cain? Cain

IP: 186
ERA: 3.87
K: 184
BB: 50
W-L: 14-7

subprediction: this prediction will be much less accurate than nearly all my other ones.

"Baseball is life, the rest is just details."

by nick on Feb 9, 2006 4:18 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Pro-Cain-ed From the Mountaintop

Who wields more power when it comes to pitching decisions, Rags or Mush? If it's Mush, as I suspect, that's not good for Cain, as his innings need to be Cain-tained, but not to the point that it comes off as benching him at the first sign of real struggle, which is what I most fear happening. After all, he'll be only a 22 year old kid, and Jamey Wright has proven that he can pitch at the big league level (gag). Right?

Worst-case scenario, pre All-Star Game benching
IP: 115
ERA: 4.35
K: 100
BB: 50
W-L: 5-7

Best we should hope for, limited innings, no hits to his confidence
IP: 175
ERA: 3.10
K: 190
BB: 50
W-L: Not Don Mossi Ugly

David
29Sunset - My "Band"
Sportszilla - My sports writing

by David Arnott on Feb 9, 2006 4:39 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I'm gonna be different here...

...and project different stuff.

Avg. innings per start: 6.2
K/9: 6.8
BB/9: 2.4
BABIP: .240
ERA: 3.25

I'd be the best at everything, if only there weren't so many people better than me. Or, if everyone died, just for a few seconds.

by Daniel on Feb 9, 2006 4:54 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: I'm gonna be different here...

So that would look like what in regular, everyday numbers?

by Lyle on Feb 10, 2006 9:00 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: I'm gonna be different here...

Er, uh, that's why I'm being different. I'm not projecting his everyday numbers.

(Yes, Lyle, that is a cop out)

Alright, dangit. (hm, how many starts? 30? Okay.)

30 starts would put him at this, using those numbers:

IP: 200
SO: 150
BB: 72

I skipped over that because I'm avoiding guessing how many starts Cain will make, because I don't know. Trying to take the easy way out, essentially.

I'd be the best at everything, if only there weren't so many people better than me. Or, if everyone died, just for a few seconds.

by Daniel on Feb 10, 2006 11:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't blame it on me

IP: 144
ERA: 3.75
K: 112
BB: 67
Placement in fugliest Giant contest: 2nd
(Unless Jason Schmidt is traded)

by leftymalo on Feb 9, 2006 9:27 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Don't blame it on me

Cain does look like he should be driving a tractor instead of pitching, doesn't he?

I'd be the best at everything, if only there weren't so many people better than me. Or, if everyone died, just for a few seconds.

by Daniel on Feb 9, 2006 9:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Cainmunity Procaintions: Matt Cain (Cain? Cain

I think you did a pretty good job projecting it.

I think he'll be very good in the last month or two, but I do think his ERA will be over 4.00

http://giantsoffseason.blogspot.com

by NeifiChicken on Feb 9, 2006 10:41 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Cain't stop dreamin'

ERA in the low 4's, more wins than losses, less than 200 innings pitched, twice the strikeouts over walks, fewer hits than innings pitched, too many homeruns allowed, hits one homerun, adds a youthful vigor and excitement to the bottom of the rotation. Second in the rookie of the year voting and wins a game in the playoffs, either starting or in relief.

by APGiantsFan on Feb 10, 2006 5:35 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Cainmunity Procaintions: Matt Cain (Cain? Cain

IP: 165
ERA: 4.32
K: 145
BB: 70

I think the walks are going to keep him from breaking out this year. Also, he's an extreme flyball pitcher. That's a good thing at SBC (or AT&T or whatever), but with Bonds and Alou in the outfield, it could get ugly.

by El Mono on Feb 10, 2006 10:43 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

I love you sugar Cain...

(Sonic Youth. I'm on absolute fire, and smugly so)

IP: 180
ERA: 3.80
K: 160
BB: 60
Pre ASB W/L: 8-2
Post ASB: 6-6

Final: 14-8, but the ROY goes to Dallimore in Milwaukee.

"When I think of how many times the Enemy has tried to kill Gary Busey..."

by multiphasic on Feb 10, 2006 2:31 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Cainmunity Procaintions: Matt Cain

Let's see, I say 32 Starts at 6 innings each for 192 Innings. I say 175 Hits and 75 Walks for a 1.30 WHIP. I also see 150 Ks and a 3.50 ERA with 14 Wins and 10 Loses. Oh, and by the way the NL Rookie of the Year!

by giantsrainman on Feb 21, 2006 8:14 PM PST reply actions 0 recs