2007 Prognosis
Well what have we got here, a ballclub maybe? Just maybe. Let's look at what we're going into the 2007 season with.
Starting Rotation:
Zito
Cain
Morris
Lowry
Sanchez/Correia/Hennessey/Lincecum
Bullpen:
Benitez
Chulk
Sanchez/Correia/Hennessey
Sanchez/Correia/Hennessey
Kline
Wilson
Misch/Sadler/Taschner/Worrell/Veteran Trade
Lineup:
Molina
Aurilia
Durham
Vizquel
Feliz
Bonds
Roberts
Winn
Bench:
Alfonzo
Frandsen
Klesko
Sweeney/Ellison/Lewis
Linden
The one chance I can see happening here is Sweeney being traded for a veteran bullpen arm. Not only does that give us a fuller bullpen without having to put one of the youngsters in there, it clears up the 1B, LF, RF area it also gives us Ellison/Lewis as a CF replacement as well as Winn when Roberts faces a lefty. Maybe there is a trade of Lowry or Sanchez but I really hope that they don't get traded. Our pitching is our strongest point and our hitting needs a lot more help than just Lowry or Sanchez can bring back. Now what about that hitting?
I used the Lineup Analysis tool to see how the Giants lineup will fare using their career stats, their 2006 stats, and their trended stats. For the trended stats, I used a linear regression line for every season above 90 games. A pitcher's spot of .210 OBP and .260 SLG was used in ever analysis, adjusted from a .198/.241 estimate of pitching for account of pinch hitters.
Career Stats: Lineup Analysis
Player OBP SLG
Molina 310 407
Aurilia 332 443
Durham 354 443
Vizquel 342 360
Feliz 288 436
Bonds 443 608
Roberts 344 371
Winn 343 421
Best 4.954 runs
Worst 4.292 runs
Average 4.623 runs
Season Total 749 runs
A difference of 3 runs (746 total runs in 2006 scored by the Giants). That obviously will win us the World Series. There are a few hopes for this though, as you can hope Durham can get a SLG closer to what 2006 was and you can hope Feliz might magically learn plate discipline.
2006 Stats: Lineup Analysis
Player OBP SLG
Molina 319 467
Aurilia 349 518
Durham 360 538
Vizquel 361 389
Feliz 281 428
Bonds 454 545
Roberts 360 391
Winn 324 396
Best 5.316 runs
Worst 4.572 runs
Average 4.944 runs
Season Total 801 runs
Now we're getting somewhere. 801 runs would have put us 6th in scoring in the NL. And if I remember someon's stat from somewhere, where 10 runs = an extra win, that means that the Giants go 81-80. Still not very respectable but getting somewhere.
Trended Stats: Lineup Analysis
Player OBP SLG
Molina 324 466
Aurilia 343 485
Durham 372 503
Vizquel 372 413
Feliz 300 464
Bonds 555 789
Roberts 359 428
Winn 345 461
Best 6.038 runs
Worst 5.156 runs
Average 5.597 runs
Season Total 907 runs
Pleasepleasepleasepleaseplease let this happen. 906 runs would put the Giants above every NL team and only behind the Yankees in the MLB. And with the rule above, a 91-70 record. But of course this isn't going to happen. Feliz with a .300 OBP?
But I did this to prove a point, I can see the Giants scoring as many, or more runs than they did last year. Especially with a much stronger bench. The change would be the pitching staff. Losing Schmidt was a big loss but additions in the form of acquiring Zito, the improvement in Cain, and losing Wright may even that out. The big kick in the rotation I think will be Morris. Will he be able to improve his 2nd year with the Giants? Make what you want, I'll be expecting this team to go to .500 and if they get lucky (or a big bat late in the season if Lincecum is ready and they can trade one of the other starters), go even farther than that.
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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17 comments
Comments
Re: 2007 Prognosis
by giantsrainman on Dec 28, 2006 11:54 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: 2007 Prognosis
by JakeS on Dec 29, 2006 12:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Pitching and defense wins championships
by wilriv21 on Dec 29, 2006 12:12 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Bullpen
by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 29, 2006 6:27 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: 2007 Prognosis
2 -- I think Klesko is the more appropriate guy to slot in to 1B instead of Aurilia.
3 -- To get to 85 wins, I'm hoping the hitting either slightly improves somehow, or maintains, and that the pitching takes a solid leap forward with Morris's production catching up to his solid peripherals paired with the younger guys improving, Cain especially.
by David Arnott on Dec 29, 2006 12:06 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: 2007 Prognosis
this town thinks you're a bastard - Elvis Costello
by EliminateMe on Dec 29, 2006 10:43 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
To answer a bit...
And the trended stats are really almost a joke. Almost everyone on the Giants (if not everyone) was improving and had a positive slope for a trend. Here's an example for Feliz...
Y1 Y2
X OBP SLG
1 264 373
3 278 515
4 305 485
5 295 422
6 281 428
I took those, plotted them, and then used a Linear Regression formula from my graphic calculator and that gave the best fitting line for the data points. I tried to find some online representations for this but I couldn't. Since Feliz's 2001 OBP was so low that even his 2003-2006 OBP made it that the line would be a positive slope. Similarly with his SLG. Clearly Bonds's numbers will be affected by this, as his early SLG was less than his later SLG and the line will account for that by being a positive slope.
by WalrusMan on Dec 29, 2006 11:30 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: 2007 Prognosis
I think we get about the same production from 5 of our position starters (C, 2b, SS, CF, RF - where Winn/Linden = Alou (225 ABs)Finley). I think we get 15 more runs out of 1b (Klesko/Aurelia) and 40 more runs out of 3b and LF. I say this because Barry has recovered from the surgeries, and has an entire winter to train. ie, an entire year like his second half last year. 3b you say? Well, not necessarily Feliz. If the combination of his winter hitting work, more intense training, and a full ST (he missed last year because of the World BB classic), and more frequent rest, do not cure his hitting ills he will be DFAd and replaced by Aurelia/Frandsen. I also see the bench providing 10 runs. Improved D (C, CF, RF) adds the equivalent of 10 runs. Starting pitching: Zito +2 over Schmidt; Morris +2, Cain +1, Lowerey +1, Sanchez/Correia +2 over Wright/Hennessey. This gives us, if I am not mistaken, 85 wins. We could be anywhere from +4 to -5 in the pen, but the only + we lost is the 1/2 year of Stanton. We also are without T Walker, Fassero. WE may well have a healthy Benitiz (w new start: Bochy, Zito), healthy or retired Worrell, improved or equal production (partially because of less need [Zito, Morris] and less use [Bochy]) from Wilson, Kline, Chulk, Hennessey, Correia, Sadler/TAschner
by allfrank on Dec 29, 2006 1:51 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: 2007 Prognosis
Now make it account for the 200 games the Bonds, Klesko, Aurilia, Durham, Roberts, and Molina will miss.
by Bhaakon on Dec 29, 2006 2:01 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: 2007 Prognosis
Here's a hint- if you don't like what's on the radio, turn it off, instead of going around telling everyone listening that it's crap.
by hairball on Dec 29, 2006 12:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: 2007 Prognosis
by Snof on Dec 29, 2006 11:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: 2007 Prognosis
by oldjacket on Dec 29, 2006 9:42 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: 2007 Prognosis
Negative.
Sorry, but I couldn't resist making the reference. Also I think the Giants will be pretty awful next year.
by alon91 on Fri Dec 29, 2006 at 04:26:55 AM EST
[ Reply to This ]
Go back in your hole to sulk
by sf11 on Dec 29, 2006 11:29 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: 2007 Prognosis
by Pants Man on Dec 29, 2006 2:33 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: 2007 Prognosis
Whatever you do, don't put in the ZiPS projections, that would be too depressing.
These two "trended" lines seem wildly optimistic:
Durham 372 503
Vizquel 372 413
by zenbitz on Jan 3, 2007 1:23 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

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