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2007 Prognosis

Well what have we got here, a ballclub maybe?  Just maybe.  Let's look at what we're going into the 2007 season with.

Starting Rotation:
Zito
Cain
Morris
Lowry
Sanchez/Correia/Hennessey/Lincecum

Bullpen:
Benitez
Chulk
Sanchez/Correia/Hennessey
Sanchez/Correia/Hennessey
Kline
Wilson
Misch/Sadler/Taschner/Worrell/Veteran Trade

Lineup:
Molina
Aurilia
Durham
Vizquel
Feliz
Bonds
Roberts
Winn

Bench:
Alfonzo
Frandsen
Klesko
Sweeney/Ellison/Lewis
Linden

The one chance I can see happening here is Sweeney being traded for a veteran bullpen arm.  Not only does that give us a fuller bullpen without having to put one of the youngsters in there, it clears up the 1B, LF, RF area it also gives us Ellison/Lewis as a CF replacement as well as Winn when Roberts faces a lefty.  Maybe there is a trade of Lowry or Sanchez but I really hope that they don't get traded.  Our pitching is our strongest point and our hitting needs a lot more help than just Lowry or Sanchez can bring back.  Now what about that hitting?

I used the Lineup Analysis tool to see how the Giants lineup will fare using their career stats, their 2006 stats, and their trended stats.  For the trended stats, I used a linear regression line for every season above 90 games.  A pitcher's spot of .210 OBP and .260 SLG was used in ever analysis, adjusted from a .198/.241 estimate of pitching for account of pinch hitters.

Career Stats: Lineup Analysis


Player   OBP  SLG
Molina   310  407
Aurilia  332  443
Durham   354  443
Vizquel  342  360
Feliz    288  436
Bonds    443  608
Roberts  344  371
Winn     343  421

Best          4.954 runs
Worst         4.292 runs
Average       4.623 runs
Season Total  749   runs

A difference of 3 runs (746 total runs in 2006 scored by the Giants).  That obviously will win us the World Series.  There are a few hopes for this though, as you can hope Durham can get a SLG closer to what 2006 was and you can hope Feliz might magically learn plate discipline.

2006 Stats: Lineup Analysis


Player   OBP  SLG
Molina   319  467
Aurilia  349  518
Durham   360  538
Vizquel  361  389
Feliz    281  428
Bonds    454  545
Roberts  360  391
Winn     324  396

Best          5.316 runs
Worst         4.572 runs
Average       4.944 runs
Season Total  801   runs

Now we're getting somewhere.  801 runs would have put us 6th in scoring in the NL.  And if I remember someon's stat from somewhere, where 10 runs = an extra win, that means that the Giants go 81-80.  Still not very respectable but getting somewhere.

Trended Stats: Lineup Analysis


Player   OBP  SLG
Molina   324  466
Aurilia  343  485
Durham   372  503
Vizquel  372  413
Feliz    300  464
Bonds    555  789
Roberts  359  428
Winn     345  461

Best          6.038 runs
Worst         5.156 runs
Average       5.597 runs
Season Total  907   runs

Pleasepleasepleasepleaseplease let this happen.  906 runs would put the Giants above every NL team and only behind the Yankees in the MLB.  And with the rule above, a 91-70 record.  But of course this isn't going to happen.  Feliz with a .300 OBP?

But I did this to prove a point, I can see the Giants scoring as many, or more runs than they did last year.  Especially with a much stronger bench.  The change would be the pitching staff.  Losing Schmidt was a big loss but additions in the form of acquiring Zito, the improvement in Cain, and losing Wright may even that out.  The big kick in the rotation I think will be Morris.  Will he be able to improve his 2nd year with the Giants?  Make what you want, I'll be expecting this team to go to .500 and if they get lucky (or a big bat late in the season if Lincecum is ready and they can trade one of the other starters), go even farther than that.

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

0 recs  |  Comment 17 comments

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Re: 2007 Prognosis
Ah, what about pitching?  I think our pitching just might be good enough to win the west even with an offense no better then last years.  Your Prognosis is flawed because it forgets that it is pitching not offense that wins championships.

by giantsrainman on Dec 28, 2006 11:54 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: 2007 Prognosis
It's actually both.
DFA Everybody

by JakeS on Dec 29, 2006 12:10 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Pitching and defense wins championships
With addition of Zito SF now has four dependable starters.  The defense still must show that they can field well.

by wilriv21 on Dec 29, 2006 12:12 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Bullpen
Starting pitching is looking very good.  Bullpen still sucks.

by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 29, 2006 6:27 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: 2007 Prognosis
1 -- Please explain how you arrived at the Trended Stats in a more accessible way. I still don't understand how Winn, Roberts, Aurilia, or Bonds's lines are at all reasonable, especially the SLG numbers.

2 -- I think Klesko is the more appropriate guy to slot in to 1B instead of Aurilia.

3 -- To get to 85 wins, I'm hoping the hitting either slightly improves somehow, or maintains, and that the pitching takes a solid leap forward with Morris's production catching up to his solid peripherals paired with the younger guys improving, Cain especially.

by David Arnott on Dec 29, 2006 12:06 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: 2007 Prognosis
I'm wondering how you can have a "trend" that puts Feliz at a .300 OBP when he's actually declined the last 2 years...
You're nobody 'til everybody in
this town thinks you're a bastard - Elvis Costello

by EliminateMe on Dec 29, 2006 10:43 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

To answer a bit...
About Klesko/Aurilia I was still confused here.  Aurilia was still being talked about as the starting 1Bman so I used his.

And the trended stats are really almost a joke.  Almost everyone on the Giants (if not everyone) was improving and had a positive slope for a trend.  Here's an example for Feliz...


    Y1   Y2
X  OBP  SLG
1  264  373
3  278  515
4  305  485
5  295  422
6  281  428

I took those, plotted them, and then used a Linear Regression formula from my graphic calculator and that gave the best fitting line for the data points.  I tried to find some online representations for this but I couldn't.  Since Feliz's 2001 OBP was so low that even his 2003-2006 OBP made it that the line would be a positive slope.  Similarly with his SLG.  Clearly Bonds's numbers will be affected by this, as his early SLG was less than his later SLG and the line will account for that by being a positive slope.

Here's to a good 2007. Or 2008. Or 2009. Or 2010. Or...

by WalrusMan on Dec 29, 2006 11:30 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

x
Negative.

Sorry, but I couldn't resist making the reference.  Also I think the Giants will be pretty awful next year.

by alon91 on Dec 29, 2006 1:26 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: 2007 Prognosis
Thanks for the work, Walrus.  AS I recall, the Gs were, effectively, tied for 9th in runs scored last year.  
  I think we get about the same production from 5 of our position starters (C, 2b, SS, CF, RF - where  Winn/Linden = Alou (225 ABs)Finley). I think we get 15 more runs out of 1b (Klesko/Aurelia) and 40 more runs out of 3b and LF.  I say this because Barry has recovered from the surgeries, and has an entire winter to train.  ie, an entire year like his second half last year.  3b you say?  Well, not necessarily Feliz. If the combination of his winter hitting work, more intense training, and a full ST (he missed last year because of the World BB classic), and more frequent rest, do not cure his hitting ills he will be DFAd and replaced by Aurelia/Frandsen.  I also see the bench providing 10 runs.  Improved D (C, CF, RF) adds the equivalent of 10 runs.  Starting pitching:  Zito +2 over Schmidt; Morris +2, Cain +1, Lowerey +1, Sanchez/Correia +2 over Wright/Hennessey.  This gives us, if I am not mistaken, 85 wins.  We could be anywhere from +4 to -5 in the pen, but the only + we lost is the 1/2 year of Stanton.  We also are without T Walker, Fassero.  WE may well have a healthy Benitiz (w new start: Bochy, Zito), healthy or retired Worrell, improved or equal production (partially because of less need [Zito, Morris] and less use [Bochy]) from Wilson, Kline, Chulk, Hennessey, Correia, Sadler/TAschner

by allfrank on Dec 29, 2006 1:51 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: 2007 Prognosis
Neat trick.

Now make it account for the 200 games the Bonds, Klesko, Aurilia, Durham, Roberts, and Molina will miss.

by Bhaakon on Dec 29, 2006 2:01 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: 2007 Prognosis
Baakon, I've noticed your negativity at other forums as well. We get it already. Thank you.

Here's a hint- if you don't like what's on the radio, turn it off, instead of going around telling everyone listening that it's crap.

I own my own business and I'm a giants fan; being a Giants fan is harder.

by hairball on Dec 29, 2006 12:32 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: 2007 Prognosis
Actually, I think Bhaakon is making a valid point there.

by Snof on Dec 29, 2006 11:56 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: 2007 Prognosis
I don't think a barefoot linear regression is particularly appropriate for Aurilia. He's moving from a hitter's park, to neutral/pitcher's park. Same for Molina.
zhong guo mei you bangqiu.

by oldjacket on Dec 29, 2006 9:42 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Clearly..
I don't think that a linear regression is appropriate for any of them.
Here's to a good 2007. Or 2008. Or 2009. Or 2010. Or...

by WalrusMan on Dec 29, 2006 11:33 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: 2007 Prognosis
[new] x
Negative.

Sorry, but I couldn't resist making the reference.  Also I think the Giants will be pretty awful next year.

by alon91 on Fri Dec 29, 2006 at 04:26:55 AM EST
[ Reply to This ]  
Go back in your hole to sulk

by sf11 on Dec 29, 2006 11:29 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: 2007 Prognosis
I tried to allocate some realistic plate appearance estimates to my wild-ass-guess projections (plenty of time off for Barry, Roberts, and Klesko, and some emergency at-bats for the Knoedlers and De La Rosas of the world), and I came up with a team line of .269/.337/.424. Not too exciting... it's right in line with what St. Louis and Arizona (two overrated offenses) put together last season. I think it will be middle-of-the-pack enough to keep us in the race if our pitching is solid. And if our pitching is better than solid? Yes, walrus, we may just have a ballclub here.
"Robb Nen is going to get you" - Benito Santiago to Chipper Jones, 10/7/02

by Pants Man on Dec 29, 2006 2:33 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: 2007 Prognosis

Whatever you do, don't put in the ZiPS projections, that would be too depressing.

These two "trended" lines seem wildly optimistic:
Durham   372  503
Vizquel  372  413

by zenbitz on Jan 3, 2007 1:23 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

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