And, from my personal pet peeve dept., "I really like it here and would love to come back," is straight out of the same player PR dossier as "this is a great group of guys," "we'll just play 'em one game at a time," and "that pitch just got away from me." It doesn't actually mean anything. Or if it means anything at all, that meaning is: "I'd really prefer not to spend my few homestands here getting boo'd."

I'm down on Choi, who hit .207 in AAA this year. But I do like Pena. AT&T wouldn't do him any favors, and he's been a brutally slow starter (.228/.317/.406 before the break in his career), but if he ever put together a full season he would be a steal. Russell Branyan is another cheap three-true-outcomes guy who is a more valuable hitter than people think, although he's older than Pena. Josh Phelps?

I still say offer Shea arbitration, lowball him, and pray for draft picks or for his trade value to soar. But if they scratch that and sign Pena, I would be happy with that as well.

There have been articles about Lee staying with the Yomiuri Giants in 2007 and that he has hinted that he will be talking to MLB teams about 2008.  It might just be posturing on his part, since he's still in Japan, and his negotiation position is not high since he's just coming off of surgery.

Lance Niekro sucks too, but how much better than Niekro (aka freely available "talent") is Hillenbrand?  Almost $5 million/year better?  Hell no.

Carlos Pena played in 18 MLB games last year.  He has played in many many more MLB games over the past few years.  He put up a 99 OPS+ last year in 18 games.  That isn't great, but OPS undervalues OBP, and his OBP was a very respectable .351.  More importantly, between 2003-2005 for Detroit, Pena managed a 107, 112, and 112 OPS+.  Is Pena great?  Absolutely not.  But Shea Hillenbrand has never had an OPS+ over 109, and he did that in 2002 with Boston.  His numbers look even better than they were, too, because he played in Boston, Arizona, and Toronto, all of which, to varying degrees, are good hitter's parks.

Measuring a player by RBI is a terrible, terrible, terrible mistake.  RBI numbers come when you have men on base.  Much more important is that Hillenbrand is an out machine.  His OBP is entirely dependent on his batting average.  This works out OK when he hits around .300.  But over his career, he has a .287 BA and .325 OBP.  That sucks for a first baseman.  Knocking in runs isn't a skill.  He puts the ball in play with men on base.  So does Pedro Feliz, but he is a total out machine too.  He may knock in a run, but he kills far more rallies by failing to allow the next guy to hit.  By using RBI as a measuring stick, you fail to blame the guys who deserve to be blamed:  outmakers like Feliz and Hillenbrand.

Pena only has a lifetime BA of .331, but that's with a BA of .243.  Most of that is in Detroit, a pitcher's park, but it shows that he probably wouldn't be any better in AT&T.  He might even be worse, but normalized for league and park, he'll still beat Hillenbrand.  And his walks mean that his value isn't dependent on getting hits.

On top of all that, Pena (who is available) will be much much cheaper than Hillenbrand.  I think Pena will be a little better than Hillenbrand.  But let's say he won't be.  Let's say he will be equal to Hillenbrand, or even a little worse.  But Hillenbrand will cost $5 million or more for the year, while Pena will be, and let's be generous here, somewhere between the minimum and $1 million/year.  Hell, let's say as much as $2 million/year.  So at the same production, or even with Pena being slightly worse, do you want to save $3 million, $4 million, or more to put into the rest of the team?  That's probably two decent to good relievers with the savings.

Finally, Pena is a much better hitter vs. RHP, and most pitchers are righties.  Sit him against lefties, and he becomes a better hitter still.  That's when you use Niekro or some other cheap lefty-masher off the bench.  Hillenbrand is crap against RHP, and his lefty-mashing makes him appear better than he normally is.  

Don't get me wrong.  I would prefer that the Giants get an actual star first baseman.  But if that doesn't happen, and with this thin FA crop, it probably won't, then give me Pena rather than Hillenbrand.

1. Pena/Sop Choi
I suppose Pena is the preferred of the two, but they are very similar hitters.  I can't understand all the hate for Sop Choi, other than the part where he flopped in AAA this season.
Both players have their drawbacks.  They haven't been succesful in a season.  They are both the antithesis of a succesful Big Phone hitter; both are low average LH home run hitters.
But either one should be a decent hitter for free (they can platoon with Niekro) and the Giants would be wise to save money in order to fill so many other holes.
However their biggest drawback is that Sabean will never ever sign them.

2.  Aubrey Huff
Two consecutive off-seasons make him a good value for good production.

3. Craig Wilson
Very underrated and another good value.  Huff however, has a larger sample to draw from.  Both will be 30 next season.

4. Pat Burrell
Only if the Phillies take our proposed Benitez, plus spare parts, deal, or give us money back instead of taking Mando.  Sabean would never think of this, anyhow.

5. Adam Dunn
He's the best player available (only 27).  I would trade Sanchez or Lowry to get him.  His 2007 contract ($10.5 million) is appropriate.  He has a $13.5 million club option in '08.

6. Jimmy Sexson
Makes identical money to Burrell, but likely doesn't have the bad rep for the Mariners to include Beniterz or money back in a deal.

7.  Carlos Lee
Won't be cheap because of two consectutive career years.  Only 30, however.  Seems that Texas won't let him go, since they traded for him.

8. Hillenbrand
No contract.  Just arbitration, as Grant described.  Best, if he declines, we get the draft pick and then can sign or trade for one of the players above.  One year at $5 million is not the end of the world.  The real Hillenbrand, although averagish for a ML hitter, is a lot better than his 2006 Giants performance.

9. Garciaparra
With incentives, made about $7.5 million AND had a good year, which means he should cost something like $8 million for a one year contract.  Not a great value considering he's physically fragile and he's fallen off a cliff the second half of his career.

10. Dan Johnson
Should be about as productive as Hillenbrand, and makes nothing.  But Bean will likely ask for too much to trade him.