Upgrade/Downgrade, Giants 2006 Edition

by Skaldheim on Jan 18, 2006 9:43 AM PST Comment 22 comments

Maybe it's the antihistamines. Maybe it's the 10,000 episodes of VH1's "Best Week Ever" I've watched. But I can't resist playing a little "upgrade/downgrade" game with the Giants 2006 roster.

The question: have we upgraded or downgraded in our important roster spots? Let's break it down.

First base -- last year it was J.T. Snow and a painful-to-watch Lance Niekro. This year, Niekro and Sweeney. DOWNGRADE.

Second base -- Durham is going to be another year older, another year brittler. DOWNGRADE.

Shortstop -- Omar, ditto. DOWNGRADE.

Third base -- Last year it was Elfatso and a bit of Feliz. This year, it's all Pedro, all the time. UPGRADE!!

Left field -- Last year it was whoever they could find. This year, Bonds. SUPER UPGRADE!!!

Center field -- Half a year of Ellison, half a year of the mutant superhero Randy Winn. This year it's all Winn, with some Finley thrown in. UPGRADE!

Right field -- Revolving door last year; this year, Alou. UPGRADE!

Catcher -- Slugger Matheny last year; Real Life Matheny this year. DOWNGRADE.

Starting rotation -- Last year: Schmidt/Tomko/Lowry/Rueter & Cain/Hennessey & Correia. This year: Schdmit/Morris/Lowry/Cain/Hennessey. The whole thing rests on Schmidt's tender groin. Um. This is a tough call, but I'm going with a very slight UPGRADE.

Bullpen -- Eyre's performance won't be repeated, and Kline isn't as good as Hawkins. DOWNGRADE.

Usually I'd post crap like this on my own site, but this is THE place to talk about the Giants on the web. So tell me I'm full of crap, agree with me, or whatever.

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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Re: Upgrade/Downgrade, Giants 2006 Edition

1B: Last year Snow was the least productive primary 1B in all of baseball. Anything would be an upgrade. (sorry JT)- Upgrade

2B: Durham never went on the DL last year, but he did miss some time. He's really not that old so I would expect him to play about the same. - Slight Downgrade

SS: Omar is in good shape, but there will be some decline. - Downgrade (but still a good ss)

3B: Pedro fulltime. Underrated defensively, same offense. Overall.. - Upgrade

LF: Healthy Bonds - Huge upgrade

CF: Full year of Winn - Upgrade

RF: Alou everyday - Upgrade

C: Matheny won't repeat career year - Downgrade

SP: Hard to see Schmidt getting worse, Morris > Tomko, Lowry should be more consistant, Cain will be fun to watch, Henn/Corriea/Wright are decent 5th starter options.. - Upgrade

RP: Healthy Benitez, Worrel/Kline/Walker, lot of young guys waiting.. Upgrade

by mxmob33 on Jan 18, 2006 9:57 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Upgrade/Downgrade, Giants 2006 Edition

For position players, I assume you're grading offense more than defense. If that's the case, here are a couple comments:

1b: Sweeney has more power than JT. Niekro could be a disaster as a full-timer, but if it's a strict l/r platoon, I think this has to be a slight upgrade.

Bullpen: You forgot a healthy Benitez over Tyler Walker. Let's pray that's a big upgrade. And with Accardo and Munter a bit more seasoned, Walker back in middle relief, and Worrell capable of sturdy mid-relief, I'll venture that despite the loss of Eyre this could be an upgraded bullpen. I'll go out on a limb and say Accardo is this year's sleeper and could have a year like Joe Nathan in '02.

by leftymalo on Jan 18, 2006 10:00 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Upgrade/Downgrade, Giants 2006 Edition

Offense more than defense, this is true. However, I think defense is probably what makes the 1b combo a downgrade for me.

I'm not sold yet on Benitez. 2004 was an awesome season for him, but also a career year. I'm not sure he has that in him again. I'd love to be proved wrong, though.

by Skaldheim on Jan 18, 2006 11:33 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I'm worried too...

...although Benitez doesn't have to pitch like 2004 to make me happy.

A season like 1997, 1999, 2000, 2002, or 2003 would be just fine.

"Robb Nen is going to get you" - Benito Santiago to Chipper Jones, 10/7/02

by Pants Man on Jan 18, 2006 12:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Upgrade/Downgrade, Giants 2006 Edition

You're full of crap. :-)

Actually, I agree with most of this, with one excection, the starting rotation. Remove the "very" from "very slight upgrade" and I'll buy it. Here's my reasoning.

2005 Schmidt vs. 2006 Schmidt - since his year as a whole was less than we expected, I'll say even if he doesn't came back strong, we can expect a wash.

Tomko vs. Morris - upgrade

2005 Lowry vs. 2006 Lowry - upgrade (he seemed to have things figured out after the sophomore slump)

Rueter/Cain vs. Cain - upgrade (Rueter gave them nothing last year and Cain has a litle experience in the show to go along with his potential)

Hennessey/Correia vs. Hennessey/Wright/Correia - slight upgrade (I'm hoping that more choices and some experience under the young guys' belts counts for something.)

I'd also hope that they move Durham down in the order and keep him there to keep him off the DL. If that worked, we could have an upgrade at 2B.

I'd also say the bench is a slight upgrade with Finley and Sweeney in the mix. We now have a couple of LH bats that opposing teams at least have to think about.

Regarding the bullpen, maybe having Benitez available for a full year, as well as Worrell, will help offset the loss of Eyre. I don't think Benitez is great, but his loss, did require a much different use of the bullpen then what was intended.

Man, I sure sound like an optimist.

www.waitingfortbg.com (under contstruction)

by Goofus on Jan 18, 2006 10:03 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Upgrade/Downgrade, Giants 2006 Edition

I like the idea of batting Durham lower, but I get the feeling he'll still lead off or bat second.

Hell, who am I kidding? Felipe will use 162 different lineups again, just to mess with us.

by Skaldheim on Jan 18, 2006 11:35 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Upgrade/Downgrade, Giants 2006 Edition

If everyone is healthy, which is not going to happen:

1B - Upgrade - Snow was horrible
2B - Even
SS - Even
3B - Slight Upgrade
C - Slight Downgrade
LF - Huge Upgrade
CF - Upgrade
RF - Upgrade

Starting Rotation - Upgrad
Bullpen - Upgrade

But this is a loaded question. Most of these positions can be seen as upgrades from last year because of last year's injuries. If we didn't have any injuries last year most of the upgrades above would have been Evens, I'd probably say all except 1B and CF.

And we only won 75 games last year, we're going to need a lot of upgrades to get to playoff status. The NL West may still be the weakest division but injuries just decimated the division last year. I think the winner will need, or at least get, 90 wins.

by Nick Schulte on Jan 18, 2006 10:34 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Starting point

Here are the Giants numbers by position last year...

C: .232/.288/.383/.671, 14 HR, 1 SB
(Poor production from our backups brings this number into Matheny's range. Of course, no one expects our backups to do much this year, either.)

1B: .257/.316/.399/.716, 17 HR, 1 SB
(I'm not excited about Swiekro, but these numbers should be pretty easy to beat. J.T.'s glove will be missed.)

2B: .290/.350/.424/.774, 14 HR, 7 SB
(Durham should be in this ballpark if he stays healthy, but Vizcaino isn't going to help.)

3B: .259/.306/.374/.680, 12 HR, 1 SB
(Have we set the bar low enough for you, Pedro?)

SS: .273/.339/.349/.688, 3 HR, 24 SB
(Another low bar... Vizquel can top this, although he may not run quite as much.)

LF: .294/.357/.460/.817, 23 HR, 4 SB
(Moises hit well when he was in left, but Barry craps bigger than this.)

CF: .279/.326/.446/.772, 18 HR, 19 SB
(End of the line Grissom + boring Ellison + "mutant superhero" Winn = mortal Winn? Nah... Randy should easily surpass that OBP, at least.)

RF: .245/.313/.404/.717, 20 HR, 12 SB
(Not a problem for Mo.)

PH: .252/.314/.388/.701, 3 HR, 0 SB
(Sweeney has a good track record as a pinch-hitter, and we'll always have a veteran outfielder on the bench, but you never know.)

SP/5: 9-12, 4.52 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 188 IP, 192 H, 77 BB, 128 K
(This would be a very bad year for Schmidt, Lowry, Morris, or Cain, and an entirely acceptable one for Hennessey. Together I would expect them to greatly surpass these numbers, but I thought the rotation would do a good job last year as well.)

RP/7: 4-4, 7 SV, 3.98 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 72 IP, 71 H, 30 BB, 48 K
(This isn't a very lofty goal, but using the "one out of every three relievers inexplicably sucks every year" theory, I'll call this a wash. Benitez is the wildcard, even though he's making "sure thing" money.)

Taken as a whole, there's good reason to expect the 2006 team to be significantly better than the 2005 train wreck. Matching or exceeding these numbers is at least a realistic possibility at every position, including second base. Of course, the 2005 team was pretty ugly, so substantial improvement is necessary. And there's no denying that this year's team has some huge injury risks.

Play ball already!

"Robb Nen is going to get you" - Benito Santiago to Chipper Jones, 10/7/02

by Pants Man on Jan 18, 2006 11:02 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Starting point

(Moises hit well when he was in left, but Barry craps bigger than this.)

That made me laugh out loud.

www.waitingfortbg.com (under contstruction)

by Goofus on Jan 18, 2006 11:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Starting point

Same here. But are you saying Barry is full of crap, too? Heh.

by Skaldheim on Jan 18, 2006 11:36 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Starting point

Looking at those numbers, then accounting for Alou's lineup's (batting Snow 3rd), it's no wonder the offense was terrible last year. I would not be surprised to see Alou at 1B at some point in the season. Especially if Finley is hitting again and Neikro is struggling.

by mxmob33 on Jan 18, 2006 11:27 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

What about Finley?

I think people are missing the potential impact of Finley. As a fourth outfielder filling in for Bonds and Alou, he'll get three or four starts a week.

If he hits, I believe he'll get ABs elsewhere, and first is the likely spot.

His presence, assuming he is productive, is a big plus in the outfield and at first.

Just one time before I die

by Katman on Jan 18, 2006 11:04 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: What about Finley?

I mentioned Finley in my post...do I get brownie points?

www.waitingfortbg.com (under contstruction)

by Goofus on Jan 18, 2006 11:09 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: What about Finley?

Finley is hard to fit into a pigeonhole analysis like this. Worst case, he's a slight drag on each outfield position until he gets DFA'ed. More likely, he holds his own, which means he does better than Ellison or a Torcato type would.

The key scenario is a long-term DL trip by one of the starting outfielders. Then Finley could really save our bacon, if last year wasn't a fluke. Otherwise, we're still screwed.

by Skaldheim on Jan 18, 2006 11:41 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Upgrade/Downgrade, Giants 2006 Edition

One more thought, if one subscribes to the "Barry makes everyone around him better" theory on offense, that could help offset some of the concerns around what guys like Omar, Durham, Pedro and Winn will do this year.

www.waitingfortbg.com (under contstruction)

by Goofus on Jan 18, 2006 11:08 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Upgrade/Downgrade, Giants 2006 Edition

much as i don't normally subscribe to such theories, i'd say in barry's case that is to 100 percent true, especially for the hitter in front of him (snow/aurilia). i've long wondered if feliz could have a career year if he got a majority of ABs in the three spot (no matter how dangerous that sounds).

by SFfaninNYC on Jan 18, 2006 11:21 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Upgrade/Downgrade, Giants 2006 Edition

Yeah, and the guy hitting behind Bonds gets RBI opportunities extraordinaire. Alou seems like the right guy for the job. Hopefully, we'll get to see more of Bonds and ALou in the same lineup this year.

www.waitingfortbg.com (under contstruction)

by Goofus on Jan 18, 2006 1:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Upgrade/Downgrade, Giants 2006 Edition

the thing that killed me was that late game last year where they walked bonds and alou hit a three run homer. i was sitting there thinking this was supposed to happen all year long... In any case, i guess the #3 has to be a good fastball hitter, and feliz is that, but you have to wonder if his freeswingingness would ruin the opportunity. you're the pitcher and you're like, well, if he'll swing at anything why ever give him a pitch to hit?

by SFfaninNYC on Jan 18, 2006 6:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Upgrade/Downgrade, Giants 2006 Edition

Because now and then, Pedro shows a surprisingly discerning batting eye. He'll go on these mini-streaks where he'll look for his pitch and draw a few walks. Those are the moments when you can just see Pedro turn into an All-Star. It's an agonizing glimpse of what should be.

by Skaldheim on Jan 19, 2006 9:11 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Upgrade/Downgrade, Giants 2006 Edition

Excellent point. For anecdotal evidence, look at how the Giants offense blossomed when Bonds came back last year.

I do think there's something to that--it's an intangible psychological weapon that few other teams have.

by Skaldheim on Jan 18, 2006 11:38 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'll bite

First Base: Niekro/Sweeney semi-platoon = slight upgrade
2nd Base: Durham = status quo, same injury chance as ever. Large chance for injury.
3rd Base: Feliz = Addition by subtraction of Alfonzo. Huge upgrade if he hits in front of Bonds.
SS: Vizquel = Downgrade for loss of Cruz's ability to mash LHP
LF: Bonds for 120 games: Major upgrade. Huge chance for injury.
CF: Winn = Upgrade, partially by subtraction of Grip
RF: Alou = Downgrade, as I can't see him hitting 330 again. Huge chance for injury.
C: Matheny = Downgrade for return to career average and age. Backups likely worse as well.

Schmidt - Should be upgrade if his command returns, major upgrade if his fastball does as well. Huge chance for injury.
Lowry - great, if he can stay away from Coors field. Should be a slight upgrade by consolidating his gains.
Morris - slight upgrade over Tomko, if only because less Flakey. Major collapse risk.
Cain - I can see him anywhere from an ace to a bum, or anywhere in between. My best guess is that he starts strong, but through fatigue and the league adjusting to him he has a noticeably worse second half.
Hennessey - Pitched about league average with high flake factor. I could see a big year if he gains consistency, but the presence of Wright mandates that he starts strong or a bad start will get him demoted. Much like Correia, in that he will find success when he learns to get lefties out, possibly through better use of a curveball.

Pen: MAJOR upgrade, even with loss of Eyre. A whole year of Benitez should help, along with the maturation of some of the young guys. More addition by subtraction, by jettising Reueter, Herges, Brower, and Christiansen.

Bench: The loss of Cruz should hurt, but Vizcaino gives them some more D. Having a good pinch hitter like Sweeney will be nice, as is his ability to play OF. A lefty hitting catcher would be nice. Finley will probably totally stink, whoever the backup catcher is.

Summa Rosterica: Lots of players who posted a negative VORP are gone, and that should help. That Bonds guy is really good, but Conte has his work cut out for him. At least he should get to watch Nick play in San Jose.

The Dodgers ARE evil.

by irwin on Jan 18, 2006 10:30 PM PST reply actions 0 recs