The Lindenberg

by Grant on Sep 16, 2005 2:31 PM PDT in News Comment 12 comments

Imagine a world with no internet. No DVDs or CDs. Japanese cars are just starting to take a piece of the automobile market. Sylvester Stallone is taken seriously. In this alien sci-fi world, the Giants rolled Chili Davis off the assembly line, and the last above-average outfielder produced by their farm system came to be. Oh, there have been contenders to the throne. Mike Aldretes, Marvin Benards, and Darren Lewii. There have been first-round picks who hoped to ascend to usefulness, like Adam Hyzdu and Arturo McDowell. But no bites.

So it was of great interest to Giants fans when on-again/off-again prospect Todd Linden started humiliating Pacific Coast League pitching this year. The average was there. The power was there. The strikeouts were a little too Adam Dunn, but so were the walks. Any value Michael Tucker had to the Giants could only be measured with an invented statistic, like Hustle per Square Inch (HUPSQUINCH), so it made sense to call Linden up. The rest, as they say, is fans banging their heads against a kitchen table.

Linden is an irritating player to watch right now. His nickname -- Todd "0-1" Linden -- is just the start. He swings at bad pitches, watches the good pitches, and currently has no concept of protecting the plate with two strikes. The batting eye which helped him in Fresno is non-existent in the National League. He has a hole in his swing that you could fit Armando Benitez in, extending from the bottom outside corner of the strike zone to the top inside corner. Other than that, he should be fine.

This isn't, however, a doom `n' gloom session lamenting another failed Giants prospect. I still have hope for Linden; hope that while entirely predicated on his monster AAA season, is grounded in something more than idiotic optimism. Consider the stats of two players, Player A and Player B, when they were 25. One is Linden, and another turned into a Hall of Famer. Try and match them up:

Player A
Age: 25
At-bats: 150
AVG: .213
OBP: .280
SLG: .347
Walks: 9
Strikeouts: 49

Player B
Age: 25
At-bats: 178
AVG: .210
OBP: .291
SLG: .340
Walks: 11
Strikeouts: 54

Give up? Well, Player A is Linden, and Player B is completely made up because NO ONE WHO SUCKS AS BAD AS LINDEN WILL EVER HAVE A GOOD MAJOR LEAGUE CAREER MUCH LESS BE A HALL OF FAMER!!!!!!!1!!!!

Hoo. Deep breaths. I didn't mean that. I really didn't mean that. Let's try again. This time I'll just give you a player we'll call Player X, with his stats in the Pacific Coast League and the majors at a similar age to Linden:

Player X
Age: 24
League: AAA
At-bats: 284
AVG: .320
OBP: .393
SLG: .680
Walks: 32
Strikeouts: 51

League: NL
At-bats: 292
AVG: .202
OBP: .242
SLG: .455
Walks: 14
Strikeouts: 72
Already bald: Yes

Player X is, of course, Matt Williams. There are differences. Williams' power was immediately evident, even as he was hitting .200. Williams was a year younger, which can be significant when talking about prospects. Linden walked more in AAA, and had a moderately higher strikeout rate.

This isn't implying Linden will have a career comparable to Williams. These numbers are from two very different decades, and there are plenty of other ways to poke holes in the comparison. But a cynical Giants fan -- say, the type found on a site like this -- might have been harsh on a developing player like Williams. They might have dismissed him based on the inability to recognize a breaking ball, or the outlandish strikeout numbers.

The development curve for go-for-broke players like Williams, Linden, or even Sammy Sosa can be steep. Some players never break the pine tar ceiling, and then end up stealing Derek Jeter's glove on the road to becoming an icon of hilariously moronic baserunning. Some do break through. Linden is a frustrating player to watch right now, but I'm not ready to shovel dirt on his career just yet.

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Good points, Grant

Linden right now is a AAAA slugger. But these players often come good. Almost all players need time to adjust to major league pitching. In his age 26 season, Edgar Martinez went .240/.314/.30 in 171 at bats for the Mariners. We all know how that ended up. In his age 25 season, Roberto Petagine went .232/.312/.384 in 99 at bats for the Mets, then went on to dominate Japan like no other.

When a highly touted prospect struggles at first, this is rightly seen as natural. When an untouted player struggles, it's too often seen as proof that he can't play. That's unfair. Everyone needs time. I, for one, think MLEs are quite meaningful.

However, there is a difference between Linden and, say, Edgar Martinez. Linden does not (yet) have a sustained record of dominating AAA pitching. If Linden dominates AAA next year then I will be a lot more confident in his eventual success.

by Salemicus on Sep 16, 2005 3:23 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

let's not forget his

ingenious routes to routine fly balls

by Brother Bummer on Sep 16, 2005 3:39 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

ah, c'mon Grant...linden ain't that bad

He's Worse!
He doesn't know a strike zone from a crosswalk.
He has the defensive instincts of a jv scroobeeni
He runs bases more like Vanessa Williams than Matt Williams

He sucks worse than his numbers show. Did he pick his jersey number based upon his strike zone IQ?

Whenever he gets rung up,(early and often) he looks more befuddled than "Rainman" The only guys in Giant units that look more perplexed than he are Alou Sr. when sombody mentions porriage and the Right Field Ball Dood when Bonds sends a screamer down the line

I wonder if Magellan Boy even remembers what it is like to experience a BB in the first person.

Todd does have have more hair than Matt at similar ages though.

In his defense however. He has a great arm. His swing is long, but so was Clark's when he first came up. Say what you want about Will, but his swing was suhweet, and Linden's not far behind.

I really think the kid is having a nervous breakdown. Williams had the benefit of a Roger Craig as manager, and Al Rosen as GM. A low key guy with a great sense of humor and patience on the field and a GM who had to work for a dick owner cheapskate in Lurie, and did a good job of running interference between Lurie and the team.

Linden is at the distinct disadvantage of trying to make his bones in the midst of an inmate revolt in an asylum. Alou and Sabaen both boast of their ability to not communicate. Well, actually it ain't boasting if you can back it up, and its pretty clear they have backed it up given the state of things.

Under a Bake or Hmmm Baby, Linden might grow and thrive. I actually like his tools enough to believe he would. He has a great speed, great arm and demonstrated power. And a great-looking swing

Under Alou and Sabaen, he is pressing way too hard; his fear for his roster spot is so great, he has forgotten the most basic of fundamentals. There are no veterans or clubhouse leaders around to guide him, where its every man for himself on this ship of galley slaves.

Alou has so poisoned the atmosphere in and out of the clubhouse, it is almost impossible to make any sort of reasonable projections for anybody on this team.

If Magowan can't figure a way to dump his Royal Jobu-ness before '06, I GUARANTEE a repeat of this season +/- 5 games and Linden will not be on the roster when they break camp next year.

Bring in a Brenly, a Speir, a totem pole even, and you will see drastic improvement in the cohesiveness and purposefulness of everybody's play, not just Linden's. But especially the pitching staff. The current staff has good potential for next year if they are coached, communicated with and used properly. More of the same from Alou next year will mean more of the same results. Its that simple.

Alou's behavior and treatment of players as a manager is almost as egregious as Bowa's. The difference is Bowa didn't run around consulting a voodoo doll for lineup decisions. Biggest crackpot since Stengal ran the Mets.

The Felipe Alou's, and Larry Bowa's of this world belong to another time and another place; preferably in a Somolian Beer League.

by wtfgas on Sep 16, 2005 4:08 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Really, the headline said it all.

I don't envy what you have to do right now, Grant.

I can't imagine trying to write about what I've seen in the past couple of days, but I am excited to read what you've written down on the topic everyday.

by olympicjosh on Sep 16, 2005 4:11 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

what doesn't kill him

makes him stronger for next year when the Giants take their trophy to the streets

by Brother Bummer on Sep 16, 2005 5:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

We always have next year.

by olympicjosh on Sep 16, 2005 6:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Matty Boy

Oh, how well I do remember Matt Williams as a lad. Couldn't hit a curveball. Had good power. Played third base. Maddening amounts of potential which he actually realized.

In other words, Matt Williams was Pedro Feliz with a happy ending.

So is Todd Linden a latter-day Pedro Feliz?

Let's hope he's better than that.

by Skaldheim on Sep 16, 2005 4:16 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Linden looks like a

a lumberjack with a big axe. 150 AB, 50 K, 4 HR

by Running on Sep 16, 2005 4:34 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

AAAA all the way

I saw it in Fresno one night when he was overmatched and struck out three times and we all see it day in and day out in the bigs. Can he grow and adjust? He made a big leap this year - let us not give up yet - at least he is not Arturo McDowell - I could never figure out why they stuck with him for so long.

by APGiantsFan on Sep 16, 2005 10:54 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I still believe

However, I am also a cynical, bitter fan who remembers what he was doing the day the Giants last won the Series in 1954, despite the fact that he would not be born for another twenty-one years, so I shall go out and predict that halfway through next year he will blossom as the new starting right fielder for the Chicago White Sox.

Over/under for the year Linden wins the All-Star game for the AL with a homer off a young Giants phenom?

I'll take 2008.

by antinous on Sep 17, 2005 1:13 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

A fundamental difference between Linden and Matty

is attitude. Matt Williams was everything a GM (or fan or teammate) could ask for in terms of effort, humility and attitude. He always worked his ass off. Even in his prime years, when he was considered by many to be the best 3rd-baseman since Mike Schmidt, there was no primadonna in him.

Todd Linden is something else entirely. What I find most irritating (to borrow Grant's word) about him is that he seems so full of himself. When he was voted Cape Cod League MVP and transferred to LSU after Washington released him from his scholarship, I remember reading (in BA, I think) about about how his teammates at UW couldn't stand him, and even his manager in the Cape Cod League said he was selfish and immature. Well obviously its been a while, and this may be grossly unfair, but it just doesn't seem like he's changed a whole lot. The way he questions umpires' calls when asked about his endless third-strikes-looking, the way he gave up on Ortmeier's infield grounder in LA and cost the Giants a run (Ortmeier's hustle on that play was so anti-Linden), the way he yelled (and yelled and yelled) at Angel Chavez the very next day after they almost collided on a pop fly to right. Even the way he twice (that I've seen, on TV) pretended to have been hit by pitches that the replays clearly showed had missed him entirely pissed me off. I mean, just play already and prove you can hit before you start with the Pierzynski imitations, ok?

I may be totally wrong about Linden, but it seems to me that whereas Matty's approach to the game and overall attitude was such a huge asset in developing his skills and overcoming his shortcomings, Linden's is a huge handicap and won't allow him to develop into a productive major-leaguer. Meaning that if things don't change drastically, and quickly (he's out of options next spring), he will never come close to being Pedro Feliz, let alone Matt Williams. At best, a 5th outfielder who only plays against lefties.

And it seems like the Giants don't ever face lefties anymore.

by FavoriteSpring on Sep 17, 2005 10:24 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

feliz/linden

Feliz had similar numbers in his final year at AAA in 2000 (33 105 .298) that Linden had this year. He finally showed some ML promise in 2003 and blossomed (if you can call it that) in 2004. Unfortunately, it looks like his blossoming has coincided with his plateauing.

If Linden follows suit, he may not be useful for 3-4 years. And that's possibly the best-case scenario. Unless he miraculously fixes his swing, don't expect him to be a F/T major league outfielder for a while...if ever.

Occasionally guys bloom in their mid-to-late 20s. It happens. But in my experience, guys who show hitting talent right away in the ML (no matter what they did in the minors) are better bets than guys who struggle right away.

by leewhee on Sep 17, 2005 2:35 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs