Shelling of LaTroy
Preface: LaTroy Hawkins is a good pitcher. He makes the Giants a better team, and what few struggles he suffered were magnified by a tough fanbase. The blown saves category is the only statistical line of his that is ugly, and one that is easily explained away by bad luck and sample size. His hits allowed, walks allowed, and strikeout numbers tell us Hawkins is an excellent reliever. Trading David Aardsma for Hawkins would be a completely defensible move.
The other half of the deal, though, that's something else. Of all the players the Giants control, here are the players I would have preferred to keep over Jerome Williams, even considering his recent struggles: Matt Cain. Noah Lowry. End list. There is no Pedro Feliz, no Merkin Valdez, no Eddy Martinez-Esteve on that list. There are two players, and Lowry is more of a tossup than an absolute. The Giants basically kicked Jerome Williams off the team for a first offense of eating crackers in bed. His first professional struggles, and probably the first stretch of awful pitching in his life, last all of two months, and he's gone. Traded at his lowest value ever for a middle reliever; that's the fate of one of the most promising pitchers developed by the Giants since they moved to San Francisco.
The only way this comes close to making sense is if you walk into the Benefit of the Doubt Store, and just start stuffing your pants with whatever you can get your hands on. Sabean has seen this sort of mystery performance decline before, and it most always concludes with an awful injury. Williams is not injured, but was so uncoachable at both the major- and minor-league levels, his prospects for recovery were not good in the Giants organization. Sabean's castoffs never seem to pan out, with the exception of Keith Foulke, Joe Nathan, Scott Linebrink, and possibly Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser, so let's hold off on judging this move. Salient theories, all, but they can't make sense of trading Jerome Williams.
It's impossible to tell anyone with a straight face the Giants should not have traded for a good reliever, especially considering the bullpen meltdowns of the previous days. But what did they give up? Williams was a pitcher who was starting in the majors, and doing it effectively, at an age when most college players are drafted. That he was traded isn't the gravest of sins, what hurts the most is he was traded to help a fairly wretched team. The current Giants are a .500 mixture at best, and adding one guy who figures to pitch 50 innings or so isn't going to vault them into the World Series. This could easily turn into one of those scenes where some guy won't stop the chest compressions and CPR. Someone screams, "Jack! He's dead! Let it go!", and they slowly recoil from the body, wondering where they failed. At this point, it's August, the Giants are 54-68, and Noah Lowry is mysteriously on the Pirates with Jose Mesa warming up in our bullpen.
The positives of the move:
- This has to mean Bonds is progressing well. Without Bonds, this team is not a five-star meal, waiting for the last pinch of salt before being plated and served. Without Bonds, this move is like throwing the pinch of salt on the egg, right before Sabean sits down to try and figure out how to peel it.
- Hawkins will be a big improvement to this disaster of a bullpen.
- Maybe there's a family who lost their pet dachshund, Herr Wigglestein, after the dog choked on a string of puka shells. Now, my friends, you can watch Giants games without the fear of having those horrible memories recalled. Rejoice!
- The Giants traded what could be considered a major part of their future.
- They traded this player for a middle reliever.
- They included a pretty solid prospect.
- The Giants are now absolutely counting on more than one of Hennessey/Lowry/Foppert/Cain/Valdez to develop into a cheap, effective starting pitcher.
- We all kind of liked Williams, and he was traded for a player who would have a tough time getting a free drink in the town he's leaving.
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28 comments
Comments
Wel Said!
Just the fact that Brian Sabean can think that acquiring a setup man, no matter how good, will turn this season around while saying with a straight face that Tyler Walker is our closer makes me want to puke. That doesn't even touch the fact that 3 runs is a good day for this offense.
I keep reaching for the "well, Sabes knows what he's doing" argument to try to quell the waves of nausea and all I get are images of Damian Moss, Sidney Ponson, AJ, and Ricky Ledee. If this was July 15, and we had a healthy Barry and Benitez, and we were tied with the Dodgers for first place, then I might be OK with it, but now? Oh man, life is tough for a prospect freak on this team.
by DrBGiantsfan on May 29, 2005 8:30 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
A look into the future
This vision comes to me after sleeping on this LaTroy Hawkins trade and deciding in the morning that it's even dumber than I originally feared.
by Kitspool on May 29, 2005 9:22 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't get it
What's so bad about Hawkins? There needs to be consistency. If you say "closers are made, not born" and say that the ninth inning role isn't that important, then it means the setup role is hugely important - he's the guy getting you out of jams. He normally pitches in significantly higher leverage situations than the closer. And Hawkins has been consistently excellent in that role. Look at his ERA+s the past few years.
So, it comes down to what we gave up. Money appears not to be a huge thing, I understand we gave up $1m all told. Sabean says we have continuing flexibility. So the prospects - I'll be honest - I don't know much about Aardsma. But I feel nothing but relief that Williams is gone. Loser. Are they "worth" more than we got? Only Sabean knows. None of us have been phoning around the GMs making trade enquiries. He knows what the market is.
Sabean seems to acknowledge this was not an ideal trade - he spoke about the Giants lack of leverage because of the weak bullpen. But I think it will work out fine. This is not the Mets trading Kazmir for Zambrano.
I'm really at a loss. Maybe I'm slow. But I don't see any serious downside to this trade.
by Salemicus on May 29, 2005 9:42 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I've got your serious downside right here
In turn, the Giants have traded away two 23 year olds in exchange for one (number that is '23' transposed). One of them has already won 10 games in the majors, and whatever happened to him this spring, unless he has some chronic injury, it can be fixed. I can't imagine he wouldn't win at least another 20 games in the majors and probably a lot more. Throw in Aardsma, who's college resume speaks for itself and seems on the right path to being a big league pitcher.
Trading away prospects in July when you're actually in the playoff race and need a veteran player to round out your team is defensible, even smart. Trading away prospects in late May when you're floundering and there's at least one team in the division who is clearly much better than you and you have yet to play road trips against all the good NL East teams...well, that just doesn't make any sense to most of us. It damages our long-term future and doesn't significantly help our short-term future.
If this teams ends the year with 90+ wins again, I'll happily log on and write a diary where I use my thesaurus to call Sabean a genius in as many different ways as possible. Don't think I'll need to do that, alas.
by Kitspool on May 29, 2005 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But that's a ridiculous argument
by Salemicus on May 29, 2005 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Reliever wins
(Bonds can be worth 10-15 wins.)
by gdog on May 29, 2005 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks, gdog
by Kitspool on May 29, 2005 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Forget wins and losses, then
Moreover, it's hard for me to believe that a year, two years, three years from now this will end up having been an even trade. I just can't imagine both Williams and Aardsma are going to fall flat on their faces.
I just wish Sabean, who to his credit has done more wrong than right, would realize that taking the short-term view at the expense of the long-term view isn't going to work going forward the way it did in, say, 2002.
by Kitspool on May 29, 2005 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Correction
by Kitspool on May 29, 2005 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK
No, it doesn't help the offense or the starting rotation. But the team has three problems: scoring runs, starting pitchers, and the bullpen. And the fielding isn't great either, now you mention it. But no trade is going to fix everything. Sabean is such an idiot, he should have traded Grissom and Levine for Mulder and Pujols and $$$.
I'm amazed that you ask whether 2005 Hawkins > 2005 Aardsma + Williams.
This is only a bad trade if you believe one of the following:
- The bullpen didn't need help (ridiculous)
- Williams will become a decent MLB starter (ymmv)
- you could have got more back for Williams and Aardsma (you have no way of knowing)
by Salemicus on May 29, 2005 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Or,
If the Giants are 60-35 with a horrible bullpen, the trade makes more sense. This team needs far more help than a LaTroy Hawkins can bring. The Giants just overpaid to get new brakes when the transmission is out.
Lessee, are there any other stupid analogies I can muster? I'll work on it....
by Grant on May 29, 2005 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
DING!
Salemicus, I find it very hard to understand how you missed this option, as it seems to be the one every other person is espousing.
If you think improving the Giants to the point where they can finish 3rd instead of 4th is worth ANY kind of risk to the team's future, I'm afraid you're alone in that boat.
by Josh from Hollywood on May 29, 2005 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But think Williams isn't worth anything...
We can all "I told you so" each other to death in 2008.
by Salemicus on May 29, 2005 12:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you don't think he's worth ANYTHING...
by Josh from Hollywood on May 29, 2005 1:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Still, though...
by lyricalkiller on May 29, 2005 8:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Marketplace
While it's possible there was more of a market for a 30-something, slightly above average middle reliever who'd completely worn out his welcome than for a fan favorite starting pitcher in his early twenties with a history of success and a grand total of a month of difficulties, I find it hard to believe.
If temporarily this is the best price we could get for Jerome, then he clearly should have waited til the offseason to move him,when there are more buyers in the marketplace, and after a campaign or propaganda about Williams' improved health, work ethic, and brilliant campaign in winter ball.
I personally have no problem with trading Willliams or acquiring Hawkins. I just find it hard to interpret even a one-for-one exchange being a fair deal for us.
by Scott on May 29, 2005 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is not the Mets trading Kazmir for Zambrano
Oh, and now that Jerome is on the same team as Maddux (whom he is often compared to), I wouldn't count on the old "Sabean Mystique" working here.
by The Balls of Summer on May 30, 2005 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Jack! He's dead! Let it go!"
This worked on Lost, so I'm optimistic.
by Leee on May 29, 2005 10:40 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
True, but it failed on "24".
by Grant on May 29, 2005 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Polar bear
by Pants Man on May 29, 2005 12:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jack Bauer, new Giants GM
by Skaldheim on May 30, 2005 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He plays by his own rules...
by lyricalkiller on May 30, 2005 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What's the difference...
All of that said, Hawkins is a fine player and I certainly prefer having him to Herges. But if Herges goes back to the Dodgers with Kent and Ledee, and they all dance on the field in Sept. when I'm at the game, I'll be most upset. Worse, Williams or Aardsma may have been useful next year or the year after, either of which are better prospects than this year.
BB
by BlackDougal on May 30, 2005 3:18 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
To me,
by lyricalkiller on May 30, 2005 10:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hate this deal.
I am sad to see both these guys go. I am sad to see the Giants management refuse to really save up for a serious run, and instead run these lousy weak teases every year in hope that the playoffs really are a crapshoot. I don't think they are. Luck is a greater factor, but I'll still take the team with the better talent.
by achiappanza on May 30, 2005 11:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
$4.25M
$4.25 million.
For a middle reliever.
Ouch.
by Cleophus on May 31, 2005 8:20 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

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