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Shelling of LaTroy

Preface: LaTroy Hawkins is a good pitcher. He makes the Giants a better team, and what few struggles he suffered were magnified by a tough fanbase. The blown saves category is the only statistical line of his that is ugly, and one that is easily explained away by bad luck and sample size. His hits allowed, walks allowed, and strikeout numbers tell us Hawkins is an excellent reliever. Trading David Aardsma for Hawkins would be a completely defensible move.

The other half of the deal, though, that's something else. Of all the players the Giants control, here are the players I would have preferred to keep over Jerome Williams, even considering his recent struggles: Matt Cain. Noah Lowry. End list. There is no Pedro Feliz, no Merkin Valdez, no Eddy Martinez-Esteve on that list. There are two players, and Lowry is more of a tossup than an absolute. The Giants basically kicked Jerome Williams off the team for a first offense of eating crackers in bed. His first professional struggles, and probably the first stretch of awful pitching in his life, last all of two months, and he's gone. Traded at his lowest value ever for a middle reliever; that's the fate of one of the most promising pitchers developed by the Giants since they moved to San Francisco.

The only way this comes close to making sense is if you walk into the Benefit of the Doubt Store, and just start stuffing your pants with whatever you can get your hands on. Sabean has seen this sort of mystery performance decline before, and it most always concludes with an awful injury. Williams is not injured, but was so uncoachable at both the major- and minor-league levels, his prospects for recovery were not good in the Giants organization. Sabean's castoffs never seem to pan out, with the exception of Keith Foulke, Joe Nathan, Scott Linebrink, and possibly Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser, so let's hold off on judging this move. Salient theories, all, but they can't make sense of trading Jerome Williams.

It's impossible to tell anyone with a straight face the Giants should not have traded for a good reliever, especially considering the bullpen meltdowns of the previous days. But what did they give up? Williams was a pitcher who was starting in the majors, and doing it effectively, at an age when most college players are drafted. That he was traded isn't the gravest of sins, what hurts the most is he was traded to help a fairly wretched team. The current Giants are a .500 mixture at best, and adding one guy who figures to pitch 50 innings or so isn't going to vault them into the World Series. This could easily turn into one of those scenes where some guy won't stop the chest compressions and CPR. Someone screams, "Jack! He's dead! Let it go!", and they slowly recoil from the body, wondering where they failed. At this point, it's August, the Giants are 54-68, and Noah Lowry is mysteriously on the Pirates with Jose Mesa warming up in our bullpen.

The positives of the move:

  1. This has to mean Bonds is progressing well. Without Bonds, this team is not a five-star meal, waiting for the last pinch of salt before being plated and served. Without Bonds, this move is like throwing the pinch of salt on the egg, right before Sabean sits down to try and figure out how to peel it.
  2. Hawkins will be a big improvement to this disaster of a bullpen.
  3. Maybe there's a family who lost their pet dachshund, Herr Wigglestein, after the dog choked on a string of puka shells. Now, my friends, you can watch Giants games without the fear of having those horrible memories recalled. Rejoice!
So it goes. The negatives:
  1. The Giants traded what could be considered a major part of their future.
  2. They traded this player for a middle reliever.
  3. They included a pretty solid prospect.
  4. The Giants are now absolutely counting on more than one of Hennessey/Lowry/Foppert/Cain/Valdez to develop into a cheap, effective starting pitcher.
  5. We all kind of liked Williams, and he was traded for a player who would have a tough time getting a free drink in the town he's leaving.
The 2007 Giants were awful to think about before this move, and it didn't get any better. Matheny's here. Vizquel's here. Benitez is here. The rotation, though, is Lowry and four dunnos. Is Jason Schmidt coming back? Are the Giants going to sign Brett Tomko for Carl Pavano money, and is he going to be good? Can Cain avoid the young pitcher vortex? Will any of the young pitchers develop into a major-league starter by that time? That's only four question marks, and that's being generous. Stupid, stupid move.

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Wel Said!
It's not so much that I was unwilling to part with Williams and Aardsma, it's what we got, or more importantly, didn't get in return.  We trade a pitcher who, as recently as late September came back from surgery to pitch a 1 run, 7 inning gem and keep the season going and another kid with a 95 MPH fastball who appeared to be making good progress in becoming a pitcher at AA, for.....Felix Freaking Rodriquez?  I agree, Hawkins is a good setup man, most of the time.  He's certainly had his share of meltdowns though, and that dates all the way back to his days in Minnesota. Just wait until Alou gets done messing with his head.

Just the fact that Brian Sabean can think that acquiring a setup man, no matter how good, will turn this season around while saying with a straight face that Tyler Walker is our closer makes me want to puke.  That doesn't even touch the fact that 3 runs is a good day for this offense.

I keep reaching for the "well, Sabes knows what he's doing" argument to try to quell the waves of nausea and all I get are images of Damian Moss, Sidney Ponson, AJ, and Ricky Ledee.  If this was July 15, and we had a healthy Barry and Benitez, and we were tied with the Dodgers for first place, then I might be OK with it, but now? Oh man, life is tough for a prospect freak on this team.

by DrBGiantsfan on May 29, 2005 8:30 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

A look into the future
2007 Giants reach the All-Star Game at SBC Park some 20 games under .500 and suffer the ultimate embarassment when their one and only reserve on the NL team, Ricky Ledee (back on the club after being acquired from the Dodgers in May 2006 in exchange for Matt Cain, Jesse Foppert, Brad Hennessey, Eddy Martinez-Esteve and a Club Level luxury box to be named later), is scratched from the game with a pulled leg.

This vision comes to me after sleeping on this LaTroy Hawkins trade and deciding in the morning that it's even dumber than I originally feared.

by Kitspool on May 29, 2005 9:22 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't get it
I get the trade. What I mean is I don't get the reaction.

What's so bad about Hawkins? There needs to be consistency. If you say "closers are made, not born" and say that the ninth inning role isn't that important, then it means the setup role is hugely important - he's the guy getting you out of jams. He normally pitches in significantly higher leverage situations than the closer. And Hawkins has been consistently excellent in that role. Look at his ERA+s the past few years.

So, it comes down to what we gave up. Money appears not to be a huge thing, I understand we gave up $1m all told. Sabean says we have continuing flexibility. So the prospects - I'll be honest - I don't know much about Aardsma. But I feel nothing but relief that Williams is gone. Loser. Are they "worth" more than we got? Only Sabean knows. None of us have been phoning around the GMs making trade enquiries. He knows what the market is.

Sabean seems to acknowledge this was not an ideal trade - he spoke about the Giants lack of leverage because of the weak bullpen. But I think it will work out fine. This is not the Mets trading Kazmir for Zambrano.

I'm really at a loss. Maybe I'm slow. But I don't see any serious downside to this trade.

by Salemicus on May 29, 2005 9:42 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I've got your serious downside right here
This is just repeating what most everyone else here has written, but here's the downside in a nutshell. If LaTroy pitches lights out he's still probably only worth an extra 2, maybe 3 wins the rest of the season by himself, whereas if/when Barry returns he's worth an extra 5 wins in the first five games he plays in.

In turn, the Giants have traded away two 23 year olds in exchange for one (number that is '23' transposed). One of them has already won 10 games in the majors, and whatever happened to him this spring, unless he has some chronic injury, it can be fixed. I can't imagine he wouldn't win at least another 20 games in the majors and probably a lot more. Throw in Aardsma, who's college resume speaks for itself and seems on the right path to being a big league pitcher.

Trading away prospects in July when you're actually in the playoff race and need a veteran player to round out your team is defensible, even smart. Trading away prospects in late May when you're floundering and there's at least one team in the division who is clearly much better than you and you have yet to play road trips against all the good NL East teams...well, that just doesn't make any sense to most of us. It damages our long-term future and doesn't significantly help our short-term future.

If this teams ends the year with 90+ wins again, I'll happily log on and write a diary where I use my thesaurus to call Sabean a genius in as many different ways as possible. Don't think I'll need to do that, alas.

by Kitspool on May 29, 2005 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

But that's a ridiculous argument
No offense, but saying a starter can "win" 20 games in a season whereas a middle reliever only "wins" 3 is nonsense. That's just a statistical notation, it doesn't mean anything in terms of value to the team. Wins and losses for a pitcher is a pretty meaningless statistic.

by Salemicus on May 29, 2005 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Reliever wins
This has nothing to do with the number of wins a pitcher gets. What he's talking about is the "value" of the situations in which a pitcher pitches.  A dependable eighth inning short relief guy is worth 2-3 added wins versus a crappy one.  A starting pitches lower importance innings, but many more of them, and can be worth 5-6 wins if he's pretty good.  Even Jerome Williams was worth 2-3 wins the last two partial seasons.  

(Bonds can be worth 10-15 wins.)

by gdog on May 29, 2005 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks, gdog
for clarifying my lengthy-yet-poorly-articulated argument.

by Kitspool on May 29, 2005 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Forget wins and losses, then
Is 2005 LaTroy Hawkins worth 2005 Williams + Aardsma? Your guess is as good as mine. Even if Hawkins is a good setup man as advertised, how does that solve the problems of the Giants scoring runs or getting good starting pitching, neither of which they have done consistently this season? Last time I checked, the Giants were going into the 7th and 8th inning down by 2, 3, or 4 runs an awful lot of the time. Adding Hawkins doesn't, in my opinion, address that problem.

Moreover, it's hard for me to believe that a year, two years, three years from now this will end up having been an even trade. I just can't imagine both Williams and Aardsma are going to fall flat on their faces.

I just wish Sabean, who to his credit has done more wrong than right, would realize that taking the short-term view at the expense of the long-term view isn't going to work going forward the way it did in, say, 2002.

by Kitspool on May 29, 2005 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Correction
I meant to say Sabean, "to his credit has done more right than wrong." Freudian slip.

by Kitspool on May 29, 2005 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

OK
Well, I guess it depends then. If Hawkins is used as that hated 8th inning closer, then he won't help the team a great deal. If he's used to get out of jams, he'll be much more helpful.

No, it doesn't help the offense or the starting rotation. But the team has three problems: scoring runs, starting pitchers, and the bullpen. And the fielding isn't great either, now you mention it. But no trade is going to fix everything. Sabean is such an idiot, he should have traded Grissom and Levine for Mulder and Pujols and $$$.

I'm amazed that you ask whether 2005 Hawkins > 2005 Aardsma + Williams.

This is only a bad trade if you believe one of the following:

  1. The bullpen didn't need help (ridiculous)
  2. Williams will become a decent MLB starter (ymmv)
  3. you could have got more back for Williams and Aardsma (you have no way of knowing)

by Salemicus on May 29, 2005 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Or,
4) The Giants of 2005 were not a sundae in search of a cherry, and it was not worth the cheap potential of Jerome Williams to bring a cherry in. The pint of ice cream is in a truck, miles away from the store.

If the Giants are 60-35 with a horrible bullpen, the trade makes more sense. This team needs far more help than a LaTroy Hawkins can bring. The Giants just overpaid to get new brakes when the transmission is out.

Lessee, are there any other stupid analogies I can muster?  I'll work on it....

by Grant on May 29, 2005 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

DING!
I think we've found our answer -- #4.

Salemicus, I find it very hard to understand how you missed this option, as it seems to be the one every other person is espousing.

If you think improving the Giants to the point where they can finish 3rd instead of 4th is worth ANY kind of risk to the team's future, I'm afraid you're alone in that boat.

"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f***ing amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK

by Josh from Hollywood on May 29, 2005 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

But think Williams isn't worth anything...
Well, I've made my feelings clear.

We can all "I told you so" each other to death in 2008.

by Salemicus on May 29, 2005 12:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

If you don't think he's worth ANYTHING...
Would you have been in favor of just giving Williams his unconditional release?
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f***ing amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK

by Josh from Hollywood on May 29, 2005 1:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Still, though...
...isn't it worth anything to try to win as many games as possible, even if that ends up being 75, just to avoid being Diamondbacked? Not saying this is or isn't a good trade player for player; just thinking there must be some balance between protecting the future and protecting just a tiny little middling scrap of present dignity.

by lyricalkiller on May 29, 2005 8:09 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Marketplace
Just addressing your third point, the marketplace. I believe it was Sabean who said that they were having trouble making a deal because everyone knew they needed bullpen help badly.  Well, the same situation was true in spades for the Cubs, and everyone knew that Latroy Hawkins, because of a few well-publicized blown 1-run saves, was being given the Danny Graves "Go back to Vietnam" treatment.

While it's possible there was more of a market for a 30-something, slightly above average middle reliever who'd completely worn out his welcome than for a fan favorite starting pitcher in his early twenties with a history of success and a grand total of a month of difficulties, I find it hard to believe.

If temporarily this is the best price we could get for Jerome, then he clearly should have waited til the offseason to move him,when there are more buyers in the marketplace, and after a campaign or propaganda about Williams' improved health, work ethic, and brilliant campaign in winter ball.

I personally have no problem with trading Willliams or acquiring Hawkins.  I just find it hard to interpret even a one-for-one exchange being a fair deal for us.

by Scott on May 29, 2005 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is not the Mets trading Kazmir for Zambrano
Yes it is.  The only difference is that more people believed that Williams would become an elite major league pitcher.

Oh, and now that Jerome is on the same team as Maddux (whom he is often compared to), I wouldn't count on the old "Sabean Mystique" working here.

by The Balls of Summer on May 30, 2005 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

"Jack! He's dead! Let it go!"
This could easily turn into one of those scenes where some guy won't stop the chest compressions and CPR.

This worked on Lost, so I'm optimistic.

by Leee on May 29, 2005 10:40 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

True, but it failed on "24".
And "Lost" is psuedo-Twilight Zoned out, so maybe the hatch-dwelling psychic polar bear used his Shinning to revive Boone. (It was Boone, right?)

by Grant on May 29, 2005 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Polar bear
We can definitely use one of them polar bears.
"Robb Nen is going to get you" - Benito Santiago to Chipper Jones, 10/7/02

by Pants Man on May 29, 2005 12:01 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Polar Bears
Can they pitch?

by Scott on May 29, 2005 12:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He plays by his own rules...
...which would mean Balco Buffets for everyone! Get him a contract.

by lyricalkiller on May 30, 2005 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

What's the difference...
between 80-82 and 60-102?  Attendance, of course, which is never far from the panicked minds of Sabean and his overlords.  Other than that, what good is 80-82 this year, paying Hawkins $4 M next year (add that to the Matheny/Vizquel/Alou numbers which grow in the next two years) doesn't make sense for next year.  Much better to wait until July and try to salvage 2006, when Barry might actually be around even if hobbling around at first base.

All of that said, Hawkins is a fine player and I certainly prefer having him to Herges.  But if Herges goes back to the Dodgers with Kent and Ledee,  and they all dance on the field in Sept. when I'm at the game, I'll be most upset.  Worse, Williams or Aardsma may have been useful next year or the year after, either of which are better prospects than this year.

BB

by BlackDougal on May 30, 2005 3:18 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

To me,
There is a great deal of difference between 60-102 and 80-82. It just feels like there is more integrity behind it -- A for effort and all that. Enough to deal quality youth? I don't know, depends on the situation. Did we deal quality youth? Again, I don't know. This is, to me, a tough one to call.

by lyricalkiller on May 30, 2005 10:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I hate this deal.
Hate it, hate it, hate it.  Aside from the fact that any deal is evaluated as good or bad based on what you get back, all you can say about an expensive middle reliever is that he might help the team keep from sinking further this year.  And that's what I think the Magowan Mandate is:  sell tickets every season.

I am sad to see both these guys go.  I am sad to see the Giants management refuse to really save up for a serious run, and instead run these lousy weak teases every year in hope that the playoffs really are a crapshoot.  I don't think they are.  Luck is a greater factor, but I'll still take the team with the better talent.

by achiappanza on May 30, 2005 11:01 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

$4.25M
Next year, I believe the Giants are on the hook for $4.25 million for Hawkins.
$4.25 million.
For a middle reliever.
Ouch.

by Cleophus on May 31, 2005 8:20 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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