SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
- Justin Verlander
- Fausto Carmona
- Cole Hamels
- Scott Kazmier
- Felix Hernandez
- Francisco Liriano
- Joba Chamberlain
- Jered Weaver
- Jon Lester
- Phil Hughes
- Homer Bailey
- Jeremy Bonderman
- Clay Buchholz
- Chad Billingsley
- Matt Garza
- Yovani Gallardo
- Tom Gorzelanny
- Ubaldo Jimenez
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Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
I'd move Cain up at least a few slots though. Garza rated 2 spots better than Cain? He's a nice pitcher but his value is still based a lot on his upside. He's only pitched 133 career innings.
Fausto was filthy last year but I'd probably move King Felix to the #2 spot.
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
There a lot of high-ceiling pitchers in the majors and even in the minors right now. I see Matt more as a rock than as a meteor. Both are good -- but the meteor usually gets more strikeouts. :)
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
minors for Lester: 483 IP, 466 K, 203 BB, .56 HR/9
majors for Lester: 144 IP, 110 K, 74 BB, 1.06 HR/9
minors for Lowry: 320 IP, 288 K, 111 BB, .64 HR/9
majors for Lowry: 618 IP, 420 K, 240 BB, .96 HR/9
Lowry 8.1 K/9, 2.59 K/bb in minors
Lester 8.68 K/9, 2.29 K/bb in minors
Remeber Lester and Coco almost got Santana.. I don't understand how Lester is looked at as good at all.
Jon Lester = Noah Lowry?
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
by GobearsGogiants on Mar 10, 2008 11:42 AM PDT reply actions
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
East Coast bias much?
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
I think Garza, Lester, and Bailey are ranked too high, and I think it's weird that Joba is on the list, when everyone else is a starter. I think if you are going to compare apples to apples, Joba shouldn't be on here.
Also, wasn't that kid on the Marlins, Angel something-rather, supposed to be pretty great? (he of no-hitter fame)
Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
a) Cain & Lincecum
b) Lester & Buchholz
c) Verlander & Bonderman
d) Chamberlain & Hughes
e) Kazmir & Garza
by SoFa King Mike on Mar 10, 2008 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
by nick @ McCovey Chronicles on Mar 10, 2008 6:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
I don't think Garza's on the same level as any of the other guys and Kazmir hasn't shown the ability to stay healthy.
by W8ingForATitle on Mar 10, 2008 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Re: another duo to consider soon
by SoFa King Mike on Mar 10, 2008 11:23 PM PDT up reply actions
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
And Anibal Sanchez dealt with some injuries last year. I'm not sure how he's doing right now.
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
By asking, "How the Hell is Hughes above Cain?" you are showing a West Coast bias. Or more likely ignorance of how good Phil Hughes could become.
Phil was most observers' top pitching prospect a year ago.
To me the guy who seems overrated is Homer Bailey. Like Phil, Homer made the majors at a tender age last season (both were 21 IIRC) and lost some time to injury. But Homer's walk and strikeout rates both took a big hit, while Phil pitched pretty darn well.
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Hughes hasn't.
The rankings are terribly flawed any way you look at it- be it by potential or by performance. If it is by potential, Hughes is in the top 10 easily, perhaps the top 5. By performance, Cain should be in the top 10.
I won't disagree that Hughes' potential likely surpasses Cain's (I'd rather see Hughes hold up first), but at this point in time, Cain has shown more at the Major League level. And while Hughes might be only 22, Cain is only 23.
Phil is only 22 you say
Cain is only 8 months older and is ALREADY a very good MLB pitcher. Cain has a 119 ERA+ in 437 MLB innings. Cain has shown an ability to pitch 200 IP seasons, which he has done the last 2 years, without suffering from adverse effects like injuries.
Phil Hughes' track record is dwarfed by Matt Cain's. Being only slightly younger does not make up for it.
By asking, "How the Hell is Hughes above Cain?" you are showing a West Coast bias. Or more likely ignorance of how good Phil Hughes could become.
That is the key. Matt Cain already is.
This list is crap. A healthy Francisco Liriano is a better MLB pitcher than Matt Cain. Francisco Liriano is not a better MLB pitcher than Matt Cain. If you cannot pitch in MLB without injuring yourself, you are not an MLB pitcher.
How the hell is Jon Lester a better pitcher than Matt Cain? Lester should not get extra points just because he came back from cancer. Even the most rabid RS fan(boy)(girl, who is actually aware that the west coast exists, would not make that ridiculous claim. That is a ridiculous claim, and alone completely destroys the credibility of this list.
Bonderman better than Cain? Seriously.
Jered Weaver better than Cain?
Even ignoring the fact that these guys are all a couple years older, the records are not better than Cain's.
It appears that the fool who prepared this list is actually rating Cain based on his win/loss total.
And reading the rest of the entries, it does appear that the fool who prepared this list is taking into account wins and losses.
"Kazmir has the makings of a big-time winner. Last season he went 13-9 with a 3.48 ERA and 239 strikeouts for a Rays team that won only 66 games. With more defensive support behind him he could blossom into a 20-game winner in 2008."
Yes, of course, because Kazmir is responsible for his team's D.
And Fausto Carmona and Cole Hamels are not better pitchers than Scott Kazmir.
Re: Phil is only 22 you say
Re: Phil is only 22 you say
Re: Phil is only 22 you say
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
- What the heck is that pitch Matt is throwing, and can he please not do that anymore? That looks incredibly painful, not to mention the stress placed on his arm.
- What pitch is Verlander throwing? A changeup?
by Lyle @ McCovey Chronicles on Mar 10, 2008 12:28 PM PDT reply actions
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
by Lyle @ McCovey Chronicles on Mar 10, 2008 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Soon to add another pitcher
Re: Soon to add another pitcher
But you are right that he is one HECK of a prospect. Keep in mind that he was drafted three slots ahead of Tim Lincecum.
It is quite possible that as wonderful as the duo of Lincecum and Cain are likely to be, they will be pretty closely matched by Kershaw and Billingsley.
Lincecum and Kershaw are the meteors; Cain and Billingsley, the rocks.
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
This is rediculous. I mean sure he's a corner infielder but we all know that if he wanted to pitch he'd be mega-good.
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
by GobearsGogiants on Mar 10, 2008 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
SI should just stick to T&A
Re: SI should just stick to T&A
- Justin Verlander
- Tim Lincecum
- Cole Hamels
- Scott Kazmir
- Matt Cain
- Fausto Carmona
- Yovani Gallardo
- Clay Buchholz
- Felix Hernandez
- Francisco Liriano
- Phil Hughes
- Chad Billingsley
- Jeremy Bonderman
- Matt Garza
- Jon Lester
- Homer Bailey
- Joba Chamberlain
- Ubaldo Jimenez
- Tom Gorzelanny
- Jered Weaver
Re: SI should just stick to T&A
I would say that Francisco Liriano might be the most overrated here, simply because of his health problems. That said, if he can remain healthy, he could leap to the TOP of the list.
Re: SI should just stick to T&A
As for Weaver, he had a fantastic entry into the league, but I have serious doubts about him ever being anything more than a 3. He also has some health concerns.
Re: SI should just stick to T&A
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
I'm pretty sure my top five would be Kazmir, Hamels, Felix, Lincecum, and Liriano, though I'm not sure in what order.
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
by nick @ McCovey Chronicles on Mar 10, 2008 6:48 PM PDT up reply actions
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
by nick @ McCovey Chronicles on Mar 10, 2008 6:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
by W8ingForATitle on Mar 10, 2008 3:08 PM PDT up reply actions
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
I don't know a lot about Pitch f/x (maybe xanthan can set me straight if I'm getting something wrong), but from what I can tell Verlander has a better fastball/change combo than Cain, but Cain has by far the better curveball, with a much bigger break and a greater velocity separation from the fastball. And a slider, which Verlander doesn't throw.
But of course Cain doesn't yet have Verlander's command, which isn't too surprising given that he's a year and a half younger. If I had to pick one, I'd say Cain is a greater menace to the rest of the league.
Nate Silver has written several articles
Verlander's strength is his fastball velocity and command. He throws a hard fastball which he moves around the zone, as opposed to just reaching back, throwing and hoping.
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Where did the Twins get him, again?
How is Verlander
Bonderman has to be one of the most overrated pitchers in baseball.
Verlander has a career ERA+ of 122. Bonderman, even if you disregard the first 2 years of his career when he was rushed, has been 93, 112, 91 the last 3 years.
Stuff and talent and peripherals and FIP is nice, but at some point, Bonderman has to translate all of that into actually preventing runs from scoring, before he can be considered a good pitcher.
Bonderman has underperformed his shiny peripherals throughout his whole career, in 923 MLB innings.
Verlander plays on the same team, with the same D behind him, in the same home stadium. So, if bad D is affecting Bonderman, it should affect Verlander too.
I do agree that Cain is grossly underrated.
Re: How is Verlander
You really think we're at that point with Bonderman? I don't. As that article you linked the other day shows, balls-in-play data is just beginning to become significant after five years. It's entirely possible that Bonderman's career-long ERA underperformance is just a fluke. Somebody's got to be the outlier, after all.
If you want to rank pitchers on the results they've achieved thus far in their careers, then yes, Bonderman's not great. (Though if you do that, you have to take things like Cain's won-loss record into account, and we all know what an illusion that is.) But if you're drafting pitchers for the future (which is the more interesting way to approach this list, imho), Bonderman's stuff and peripherals are every bit as good as Cain's, maybe better. The only reason to discount him is if you have faith that intangibles are constant and unchanging. Or if he's hurt, which I guess is possible, given his poor finish last year.
The thing is that while Bonderman is putting up
He has 5 years of service time. He will be paid $8.5M in 2008, $12.5M in 2009 and 2010.
He is no longer a cheap pitcher, like most of the rest of the guys on that list.
And because of his stuff, his talent, he will never be cheap or undervalued.
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Jeremy Bonderman of lifetime 93 ERA+. hmm yeah matt cain sucks compared to that guy.
Somehow Jon Lester is better than Clay Bucholz?
Fausto is good, but King Felix, Jered Weaver, Joba are all better. by a lot.
This is a stupid list that means nothing and just takes up space. it's dumb to rate people. Especially with a dearth of decent stats, it's hard to rank players objectively.
PASS
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Mar 10, 2008 4:19 PM PDT reply actions
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Mar 11, 2008 4:52 PM PDT up reply actions
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
>:(
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
To be honest, I know they mentioned it in the blurb, but I think the reason Cain is so low is pretty simple: 7-16. If that record had been reversed last year, I can guarantee you he'd be in the top 10 and probably the top 5.
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
This is a weird package, and it's hard to know what to make of it. But absent some evidence that Bonderman gets nervous with men on base or doesn't understand situational pitching or crosses up his defense or something like that, I have to assume that the hard numbers paint a truer picture.
His stuff is dynamite. I agree that if we're ranking pitchers on the basis of what they've accomplished thus far in innings/runs/wins/etc., then Bonderman's not much of a pitcher. But then, Matt Cain's record isn't all that spectacular either.
Why all the Bonderman love?
This is not "just one season". This is his whole career todate. He has underperformed his FIP and xFIP EVERY SINGLE YEAR, in 915 MLB IPs total.
Year by year FIP(ERA): 4.86(5.56), 4.29(4.89), 3.92(4.57), 3.31(4.08), 4.22(5.01).
He has been hit "unlucky" throughout his career, 47 total "unlucky" hits in 5 seasons.
Maybe, FIP and xFIP and K / BB rates do not paint a full portrait of his abilities, it's not all merely luck and random variation?
He is also 2 years older than Cain.
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
This list is a joke, though, not because Cain is ranked so low, but because it doesn't seem to have any discernible method to the ranking. In many ways, it seems like W-L record is given way too much precedence - you can't tell me that if Cain had had a 16-7, 3.65 season last year instead of 7-16, he wouldn't be in the top 5. Like much of Sports Illustrated's baseball writings in the recent past, it's a joke. And yes, I feel comfortable calling Sports Illustrated a joke. Every SI article related to baseball that I've read in the past couple years has been subpar.
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Incidentally, while none of us is likely to agree with the precise ranking of the list (even the author likely might change it on another day) I certainly wouldn't call it a joke.
And when you say there is no discernible method to the rankings, that may merely mean that you don't agree with them or don't understand the methods that ARE being used.
I have many disagreements with the rankings on the list, but I certainly wouldn't call it a joke.
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
by nick @ McCovey Chronicles on Mar 10, 2008 6:45 PM PDT reply actions
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
by nick @ McCovey Chronicles on Mar 11, 2008 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
by nick @ McCovey Chronicles on Mar 12, 2008 8:22 PM PDT up reply actions
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
I didn't see anywhere in the article where they said that you ranked Matt stupid high.
I mentioned that I would rank Matt above #18, but that I don't consider that ranking to be "stupid low."
If I were going to justify Matt's being that low, I might start by saying that it is tough to justify having a pitcher whose WHIP over the three full months of May, June and July last season was an embarassing 1.61. I might add that Matt is one of the few on the list who doesn't appear to have strikeout-an-inning potential and that his control has been below-average over his career.
And I might add that beginning with his very first start as a Giant, which culminated in a 14-pitch at bat by Todd Helton, Matt has shown far too high a foul ball rate to think of him as a truly dominant pitcher. I might add that Matt's primary off-speed pitch, his slider, seems to be a home run pitch.
Now, I could make just as many points on Matt's behalf, and my point isn't that Matt might not have been ranked too low -- but that he likely wasn't ranked "stupid low."
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
(not counting small sample size anomalies listed at the bottom)
Note: longer service time denoted by bold
- Francisco Liriano (163)
- Jered Weaver (137)
- Chad Billingsley (130)
- Cole Hamels (126)
- Fausto Carmona (125)
- Justin Verlander (122)
- Yovani Gallardo (122)
- Ubaldo Jimenez (114)
- Tim Lincecum (111)
- Tom Gorzelanny (108)
- Jon Lester (101)
- Phil Hughes (100)
- Matt Garza (98)
18. Homer Bailey (81)
N/A:
Joba Chamberlain (1192 in very limited relief)
Clay Buchholz (298 in very limited starting)
---
I relied on memory on the service time thing, so I might have messed up a little bit.
Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy
Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Lester, Bailey & Bonderman should all be quite a bit lower.

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