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SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger

  1. Justin Verlander
  2. Fausto Carmona
  3. Cole Hamels
  4. Scott Kazmier
  5. Felix Hernandez
  6. Francisco Liriano
  7. Joba Chamberlain
  8. Jered Weaver
9. Tim Lincecum "Seabiscuit" is short in stature but not on talent. The homegrown product struck out 150 batters in 146 ⅔ innings last season while posting a 7-5 record and 4.00 ERA.
  1. Jon Lester
  2. Phil Hughes
  3. Homer Bailey
  4. Jeremy Bonderman
  5. Clay Buchholz
  6. Chad Billingsley
  7. Matt Garza
  8. Yovani Gallardo
18. Matt Cain In only his second full season in the big leagues, Cain reached the 200 innings mark in 2007. A lack of run support saddled him with a 7-16 record, but his ERA was an excellent 3.65 and he struck out 163 batters.
  1. Tom Gorzelanny
  2. Ubaldo Jimenez
The pictures are great- it's one of the better slideshows I've seen over there. Link.

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Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Very interesting list!

I'd move Cain up at least a few slots though. Garza rated 2 spots better than Cain? He's a nice pitcher but his value is still based a lot on his upside. He's only pitched 133 career innings.

Fausto was filthy last year but I'd probably move King Felix to the #2 spot.

by xanthan on Mar 10, 2008 11:23 AM PDT reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
i'd move cain up a lot.
In summary: Weapons grade. Odor and wetness cockfight. This stuff works on jackie moon. Illegal. Also...i got a girl in here.

by sam23 on Mar 10, 2008 11:31 AM PDT reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
I like Matt Cain a lot -- but the reason I wouldn't move him up a lot is that he doesn't have the high ceiling most of the other pitchers ahead of him do.

There a lot of high-ceiling pitchers in the majors and even in the minors right now.  I see Matt more as a rock than as a meteor.  Both are good -- but the meteor usually gets more strikeouts.  :)

by sharksrog on Mar 10, 2008 11:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
what about the many comparisons to a young roger clemens?  that sounds like high upside to me.  its not like cain is tossing zito-esque 79 mph fastballs out there, i think he still has great upside.  if timmy werent here and ranked higher on that list i think we'd all be upset about how low cain is ranked.  
In summary: Weapons grade. Odor and wetness cockfight. This stuff works on jackie moon. Illegal. Also...i got a girl in here.

by sam23 on Mar 11, 2008 4:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Can't say I've ever heard one of those comparisons, and they're completely inappropriate. The extraordinary thing about the young Clemens wasn't his velocity, it was the incredible control he had. And really, not having ever seen Walter Johnson or Bob Feller pitch, I'd say Clemens had the greatest combination of velocity and pin-point control I've ever seen.
My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.

by Roger on Mar 11, 2008 8:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
pedro? clemens did it for longer, granted.  
In summary: Weapons grade. Odor and wetness cockfight. This stuff works on jackie moon. Illegal. Also...i got a girl in here.

by sam23 on Mar 11, 2008 8:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
LEster should be ranked about 8 spots lower
Frandsen for 3B (til July 08)

by NeifiChicken on Mar 10, 2008 11:40 AM PDT reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
I would say he shouldn't even be on the list.  Jon Lester = Noah Lowry.

minors for Lester: 483 IP, 466 K, 203 BB, .56 HR/9
majors for Lester: 144 IP, 110 K, 74 BB, 1.06 HR/9

minors for Lowry: 320 IP, 288 K, 111 BB, .64 HR/9
majors for Lowry: 618 IP, 420 K, 240 BB, .96 HR/9

Lowry 8.1 K/9, 2.59 K/bb in minors
Lester 8.68 K/9, 2.29 K/bb in minors

Remeber Lester and Coco almost got Santana.. I don't understand how Lester is looked at as good at all.

by Azmanz on Mar 10, 2008 7:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

Jon Lester = Noah Lowry?
This is why you can't just look at stats; scouting reports are important too.  Lester can hit the mid 90's, Lowry can't and that means a lot.  If Lester can improve his control a bit, he'll be a 1 or 2.  If he can't, his worst case scenario is probably pitching as well as Lowry has.
Adoptive father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Mar 10, 2008 8:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
yea i'd bump lest WAAAAAAAY down.  if cain was on the yankees or bosox he'd be top in the top 5.
In summary: Weapons grade. Odor and wetness cockfight. This stuff works on jackie moon. Illegal. Also...i got a girl in here.

by sam23 on Mar 11, 2008 4:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Um, I guess durability isn't a factor in this ranking?  Or injury history?
I adopt Hector Sanchez. Because he's 17 and it delays the inevitable disappointment that much longer.

by GobearsGogiants on Mar 10, 2008 11:42 AM PDT reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
It seems to be based mostly on upside (almost all of these guys are aces or potential aces). Garza, Lester? Yeah, I dunno.
***

Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Mar 10, 2008 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
How the hell is Hughes above Cain?  Or LESTER?

East Coast bias much?

Brian Anderson: I can has spot in Fresno 'pen?

by JT Jordan on Mar 10, 2008 11:44 AM PDT reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Hughes is REALLY good.

I think Garza, Lester, and Bailey are ranked too high, and I think it's weird that Joba is on the list, when everyone else is a starter. I think if you are going to compare apples to apples, Joba shouldn't be on here.

Also, wasn't that kid on the Marlins, Angel something-rather, supposed to be pretty great? (he of no-hitter fame)

***

Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Mar 10, 2008 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Who would you consider to be the better duo in that Top 20 list?

a) Cain & Lincecum

b) Lester & Buchholz

c) Verlander & Bonderman

d) Chamberlain & Hughes

e) Kazmir & Garza

Idolizing the Nuschler Face since April 8, 1986 / GIANTSPACE returns!

by SoFa King Mike on Mar 10, 2008 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
I think you have to go option C.  After that I'm happy to pick A!

by fwoty oz on Mar 10, 2008 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
ours and Detroit's are even (on upside, anyway).  The rest are miles behind.
vote Dan Ortmeier for Will Clark, apr. 4th at your local polling place

by nick @ McCovey Chronicles on Mar 10, 2008 6:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
In order: C,A,D,B,E.

I don't think Garza's on the same level as any of the other guys and Kazmir hasn't shown the ability to stay healthy.

by W8ingForATitle on Mar 10, 2008 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
after the 2nd half bonderman just had, I would have to go with A first

by Azmanz on Mar 10, 2008 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: another duo to consider soon
The Bums need to bring up Kershaw faster in order to destroy his career faster.
Idolizing the Nuschler Face since April 8, 1986 / GIANTSPACE returns!

by SoFa King Mike on Mar 10, 2008 11:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Joba's a starter, the Yankees just had him pitch in the pen last year when he came up to the majors.  He'll be starting for them this year.
Adoptive father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Mar 10, 2008 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
okay, I wondered about that. All the same, everyone else on this list is somewhat battle-tested and proven as a starter, so it's still kind of weird.
***

Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Mar 10, 2008 2:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
But right now, Cain is better than Hughes and is more of a sure thing.

And Anibal Sanchez dealt with some injuries last year.  I'm not sure how he's doing right now.

Brian Anderson: I can has spot in Fresno 'pen?

by JT Jordan on Mar 10, 2008 10:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
I would MUCH rather have Phil Hughes than Matt Cain -- as much as I love Matt.  Phil is only 22, has at least as much dominance as Matt, is a control pitcher and actually has as negatives only that he has been injured in two different seasons (while I think Matt was held out of starts only in his first season in the minors).

By asking, "How the Hell is Hughes above Cain?" you are showing a West Coast bias.  Or more likely ignorance of how good Phil Hughes could become.

Phil was most observers' top pitching prospect a year ago.  

To me the guy who seems overrated is Homer Bailey.  Like Phil, Homer made the majors at a tender age last season (both were 21 IIRC) and lost some time to injury.  But Homer's walk and strikeout rates both took a big hit, while Phil pitched pretty darn well.

by sharksrog on Mar 10, 2008 11:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
How is that ignorant? Matt has already established himself as one of the better pitchers in the game already.

Hughes hasn't.

The rankings are terribly flawed any way you look at it- be it by potential or by performance.  If it is by potential, Hughes is in the top 10 easily, perhaps the top 5.  By performance, Cain should be in the top 10.

I won't disagree that Hughes' potential likely surpasses Cain's (I'd rather see Hughes hold up first), but at this point in time, Cain has shown more at the Major League level.  And while Hughes might be only 22, Cain is only 23.

Brian Anderson: I can has spot in Fresno 'pen?

by JT Jordan on Mar 11, 2008 12:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

Phil is only 22 you say
And how old, pray tell is Matthew Cain? What's that,  he is only about 8 months older than Matthew?

Cain is only 8 months older and is ALREADY a very good MLB pitcher. Cain has a 119 ERA+ in 437 MLB innings. Cain has shown an ability to pitch 200 IP seasons, which he has done the last 2 years, without  suffering from adverse effects like injuries.

Phil Hughes' track record is dwarfed by Matt Cain's. Being only slightly younger does not make up for it.

By asking, "How the Hell is Hughes above Cain?" you are showing a West Coast bias.  Or more likely ignorance of how good Phil Hughes could become.

That is the key. Matt Cain already is.

This list is crap. A healthy Francisco Liriano is a better MLB pitcher than Matt Cain. Francisco Liriano is not a better MLB pitcher than Matt Cain. If you cannot pitch in MLB without injuring yourself, you are not an MLB pitcher.

How the hell is Jon Lester a better pitcher than Matt Cain? Lester should not get extra points just because he came back from cancer. Even the most rabid RS fan(boy)(girl, who is actually aware that the west coast exists, would not make that ridiculous claim. That is a ridiculous claim, and alone completely destroys the credibility of this list.

Bonderman better than Cain? Seriously.

Jered Weaver better than Cain?

Even ignoring the fact that these guys are all a couple years older, the records are not better than Cain's.

It appears that the fool who prepared this list is actually rating Cain based on his win/loss total.

And reading the rest of the entries, it does appear that the fool who prepared this list is taking into account wins and losses.

"Kazmir has the makings of a big-time winner. Last season he went 13-9 with a 3.48 ERA and 239 strikeouts for a Rays team that won only 66 games. With more defensive support behind him he could blossom into a 20-game winner in 2008."

Yes, of course, because Kazmir is responsible for his team's D.

And Fausto Carmona and Cole Hamels are not better pitchers than Scott Kazmir.

by rfloh on Mar 11, 2008 12:50 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Phil is only 22 you say
I doubt Shark was implying that age is the critical factor separating Hughes and Cain. Clearly, control is. In 4 minor league season's Hughes averaged 2.16 BB/9; in a similar amount of time Cain walked 3.74/9 (a figure which he has pretty well maintained as a major leaguer). That extra walk and a half per 9IP is a significant difference. It's not too much of a stretch to imagine that if Hughes and Cain both replicate their minor league command numbers (bb/9 and bb/k) at the major league level then Hughes will end up the better pitcher.
My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.

by Roger on Mar 11, 2008 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Phil is only 22 you say
Roger, are you and I the same guy?  :)  A couple of times here I was going to reply to a string of responses, only to find that you had beaten me to the punch and done so better than I would have.

by sharksrog on Mar 12, 2008 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Phil is only 22 you say
I'm pretty sure I'm just me, though when I found out that both our fathers attended Mays' 600th HR game in San Diego, it did make me question the issue. I probably shouldn't dwell on the issue, though, I've been reading Henry James' ghost stories lately and it'll just freak me out to think on it :)
My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.

by Roger on Mar 12, 2008 6:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Why would you say Sports Illustrated is retarded?  First of all, can a magazing even BE retarded?

by sharksrog on Mar 10, 2008 11:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Two comments/questions:
  1. What the heck is that pitch Matt is throwing, and can he please not do that anymore? That looks incredibly painful, not to mention the stress placed on his arm.
  2. What pitch is Verlander throwing? A changeup?
"I think I'd trust Amy Winehouse to guard my bag of coke before I'd trust Sabes to build my offense." -Dan Szymborski, Baseball Think Factory

by Lyle @ McCovey Chronicles on Mar 10, 2008 12:28 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
I see what you did there.
"I think I'd trust Amy Winehouse to guard my bag of coke before I'd trust Sabes to build my offense." -Dan Szymborski, Baseball Think Factory

by Lyle @ McCovey Chronicles on Mar 10, 2008 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

Soon to add another pitcher
Clayton Kershaw from the Bums will soon to be added to this list. Would not be surprised if the kid broke in the Top 10 very soon.

by wilriv21 on Mar 10, 2008 12:46 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: Soon to add another pitcher
I think Clayton wasn't included because he hasn't pitched above AA and had big-time control problems at that level.

But you are right that he is one HECK of a prospect.  Keep in mind that he was drafted three slots ahead of Tim Lincecum.

It is quite possible that as wonderful as the duo of Lincecum and Cain are likely to be, they will be pretty closely matched by Kershaw and Billingsley.

Lincecum and Kershaw are the meteors; Cain and Billingsley, the rocks.

by sharksrog on Mar 10, 2008 11:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Where's Villalona?  

This is rediculous.  I mean sure he's a corner infielder but we all know that if he wanted to pitch he'd be mega-good.

Barry Zito: Throws until there's nothing left -- which is usually around the 3rd inning. Barry's a GAMER!!!

by Woody Wins on Mar 10, 2008 1:08 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
When does the top Centerfielders list come out?  I'm pretty sure we have at least five, maybe six, representatives in the top-100.
I adopt Hector Sanchez. Because he's 17 and it delays the inevitable disappointment that much longer.

by GobearsGogiants on Mar 10, 2008 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
That would be the 35 yrs old or older list, not the 25 yrs old or younger list.

by sharksrog on Mar 10, 2008 11:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

SI should just stick to T&A
Jered Weaver at #8?  That's going to look really silly in a few years.  Joba and Weaver should be much lower and Cain and Gallardo should be in the top 10.  Buchholz also needs to be much higher.  It's scary that Bonderman is still under 25.
Adoptive father of David Quinowski: Fuck it, dude, let's go bowling

by marcello on Mar 10, 2008 2:07 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: SI should just stick to T&A
I guess if I'm going to talk shit on their list, I should at least supply my ordering (this is just using their guys, I don't feel like doing the research to add in guys like David Price, Rick Porcello, etc.):
  1. Justin Verlander
  2. Tim Lincecum
  3. Cole Hamels
  4. Scott Kazmir
  5. Matt Cain
  6. Fausto Carmona
  7. Yovani Gallardo
  8. Clay Buchholz
  9. Felix Hernandez
  10. Francisco Liriano
  11. Phil Hughes
  12. Chad Billingsley
  13. Jeremy Bonderman
  14. Matt Garza
  15. Jon Lester
  16. Homer Bailey
  17. Joba Chamberlain
  18. Ubaldo Jimenez
  19. Tom Gorzelanny
  20. Jered Weaver
Weaver and Gorzelanny are the answer to the question, "Which of these are not like the others?"
Adoptive father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Mar 10, 2008 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI should just stick to T&A
I agree with you that Yovanni Gallardo may well be the most underrated pitcher on this list -- if Tim Lincecum isn't.  I haven't followed Weaver that closely since he came up, but when he first arrived, he was one HECK of a prospect.

I would say that Francisco Liriano might be the most overrated here, simply because of his health problems.  That said, if he can remain healthy, he could leap to the TOP of the list.

by sharksrog on Mar 10, 2008 11:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI should just stick to T&A
Liriano and Felix are the two toughest to rank.  If they both had no health concerns they would be at or near the top of the list.  However, I'm skeptical that either will stay healthy.

As for Weaver, he had a fantastic entry into the league, but I have serious doubts about him ever being anything more than a 3.  He also has some health concerns.

Adoptive father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Mar 11, 2008 7:38 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Am I the only one shocked to see Verlander rated #1? He seems pretty much the same as Cain and Bonderman to me.

I'm pretty sure my top five would be Kazmir, Hamels, Felix, Lincecum, and Liriano, though I'm not sure in what order.

by Evan on Mar 10, 2008 2:18 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Just on the merit that he threw a no hitter I think any mainstream sports ranking would award him #1.

by fwoty oz on Mar 10, 2008 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Verlander has been fantastic two years in a row and took a step forward last year in basically every important category.  Combine that with his power arsenal, and I think he deserves his spot.
Adoptive father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Mar 10, 2008 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
true, but that still doesn't make him anything more than Cain+run support
vote Dan Ortmeier for Will Clark, apr. 4th at your local polling place

by nick @ McCovey Chronicles on Mar 10, 2008 6:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
well, maybe a little more.
vote Dan Ortmeier for Will Clark, apr. 4th at your local polling place

by nick @ McCovey Chronicles on Mar 10, 2008 6:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
I'll take Verlander hands down over any pitcher on the list.  The guy brings a Brandon Webb style sinker at 97-99 MPH consistently with good off-speed stuff.  Once he fully harnesses the strike zone it's going to be lights out for the rest of the league.

by W8ingForATitle on Mar 10, 2008 3:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
If he's got a Brandon Webb-style sinker, he should be using it more. A 41% ground-ball rate is below average.

I don't know a lot about Pitch f/x (maybe xanthan can set me straight if I'm getting something wrong), but from what I can tell Verlander has a better fastball/change combo than Cain, but Cain has by far the better curveball, with a much bigger break and a greater velocity separation from the fastball. And a slider, which Verlander doesn't throw.

But of course Cain doesn't yet have Verlander's command, which isn't too surprising given that he's a year and a half younger. If I had to pick one, I'd say Cain is a greater menace to the rest of the league.

by Evan on Mar 10, 2008 7:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

Nate Silver has written several articles
on Verlander the last several years.

Verlander's strength is his fastball velocity and command. He throws a hard fastball which he moves around the zone, as opposed to just reaching back, throwing and hoping.

by rfloh on Mar 11, 2008 1:05 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Because of health, I think I would have to rank Gallardo above Liriano.  But, man, Francisco certainly has a high ceiling.

Where did the Twins get him, again?

by sharksrog on Mar 10, 2008 11:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

How is Verlander
pretty much the same as Bonderman?

Bonderman has to be one of the most overrated pitchers in baseball.

Verlander has a career ERA+ of 122. Bonderman, even if you disregard the first 2 years of his career when he was rushed, has been 93, 112, 91 the last 3 years.

Stuff and talent and peripherals and FIP is nice, but at some point, Bonderman has to translate all of that into actually preventing runs from scoring, before he can be considered a good pitcher.

Bonderman has underperformed his shiny peripherals throughout his whole career, in 923 MLB innings.

Verlander plays on the same team, with the same D behind him, in the same home stadium. So, if bad D is affecting Bonderman, it should affect Verlander too.

I do agree that Cain is grossly underrated.

by rfloh on Mar 11, 2008 1:01 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: How is Verlander
at some point, Bonderman has to translate all of that into actually preventing runs from scoring

You really think we're at that point with Bonderman? I don't. As that article you linked the other day shows, balls-in-play data is just beginning to become significant after five years. It's entirely possible that Bonderman's career-long ERA underperformance is just a fluke. Somebody's got to be the outlier, after all.

If you want to rank pitchers on the results they've achieved thus far in their careers, then yes, Bonderman's not great. (Though if you do that, you have to take things like Cain's won-loss record into account, and we all know what an illusion that is.) But if you're drafting pitchers for the future (which is the more interesting way to approach this list, imho), Bonderman's stuff and peripherals are every bit as good as Cain's, maybe better. The only reason to discount him is if you have faith that intangibles are constant and unchanging. Or if he's hurt, which I guess is possible, given his poor finish last year.

by Evan on Mar 11, 2008 7:54 AM PDT up reply actions  

The thing is that while Bonderman is putting up
a reasonable sample before you can draw conclusions, he is getting ever more expensive.

He has 5 years of service time. He will be paid $8.5M in 2008, $12.5M in 2009 and 2010.

He is no longer a cheap pitcher, like most of the rest of the guys on that list.

And because of his stuff, his talent, he will never be cheap or undervalued.

by rfloh on Mar 11, 2008 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Am I missing something, or is everyone talking about a different Jeremy Bonderman?

by kingofthacove on Mar 10, 2008 3:40 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
yeah sorry this is weird.

Jeremy Bonderman of lifetime 93 ERA+.  hmm yeah matt cain sucks compared to that guy.

Somehow Jon Lester is better than Clay Bucholz?  

Fausto is good, but King Felix, Jered Weaver, Joba are all better.  by a lot.

This is a stupid list that means nothing and just takes up space.  it's dumb to rate people. Especially with a dearth of decent stats, it's hard to rank players objectively.

PASS

IT'S BASEBALL IT'S BASEBALL IT'S BASEBALL IT'S BASEBALL!!!

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Mar 10, 2008 4:19 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Lester came back from cancer and won the World Series for the Red Sox. Duh.
Nattowear | artstuff | Durham? I know 'im!

by Natto on Mar 10, 2008 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Joba is somewhat unproven and has had health issues.

by sharksrog on Mar 10, 2008 11:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
he also has the best stuff of any pitcher since Randy Johnson really.  He has three nearly perfect pitches.
IT'S BASEBALL IT'S BASEBALL IT'S BASEBALL IT'S BASEBALL!!!

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Mar 11, 2008 4:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Cain is way too fucking low. What the actual fuck is Bonderman, who's been absolutely nothing but an utter disappointment so far in his career, doing ahead of him? Garza? Lester? What the hell is Lester doing so high?

>:(

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Mar 10, 2008 4:20 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
What she said.  Seriously, fuck Matt Garza, fuck Phil Hughes, fuck Jon Lester, fuck Joba Chamberlain, fuck Homer Bailey, and fuck, especially fuck, Jeremy Bonderman. He's freakin terrible.  Has Matt Cain ever had a 5.3whatever ERA? Nooooooo.  And everyone else on my 'fuck' list hasn't really seen enough time around the majors to really determine whether or not they're actually any good, except for Garza, who to this point seems like the exact same as Carlos Silva, who is not very good.  And I also think Ubaldo Jiminez should be a little higher based on his playoff performance last year.  It's hard to come up mid-season and do good for your team.  It's even harder to do it in the playoffs.

by boonitez on Mar 10, 2008 5:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Whoa, why all the Bonderman hate? Let's not be fooled by ERA, especially not for just one season. He's an outstanding pitcher, very similar to Cain in fact.

by Evan on Mar 10, 2008 6:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Okay, he hasn't been horrible, but to say he's outstanding is severely overstating it. He's had one year with an ERA+ over 100. He absolutely imploded in the second half last year. He's never had a single year with a WHIP as low as Cain's career mark. I know he had a tough time at the beginning of his career being rushed, but at some point you have to justify the hype in the majors and I just don't see how Bonderman has done that yet. He's certainly one of the top 20 pitchers under 25, but he has been pretty disappointing and he isn't as good as Cain. (Okay, I guess if you look at xFIP or something, which I will admit isn't a stat I'm particularly fond of, that has Bonderman as better than Cain, but I'm pretty sure that's not what SI is using to make this list. Especially since Jon Lester is so high.)

To be honest, I know they mentioned it in the blurb, but I think the reason Cain is so low is pretty simple: 7-16. If that record had been reversed last year, I can guarantee you he'd be in the top 10 and probably the top 5.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Mar 10, 2008 7:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
This is another way of saying what I wrote in response to rfloh above ... but looking at Bonderman's track record, what stands out is that the "hard" numbers (strikeout rate, walk rate, groundball percentage) are consistently terrific, while the numbers that are supposed to regress (babip, hr/fb, stranded runner percentage) are consistently terrible.

This is a weird package, and it's hard to know what to make of it. But absent some evidence that Bonderman gets nervous with men on base or doesn't understand situational pitching or crosses up his defense or something like that, I have to assume that the hard numbers paint a truer picture.

His stuff is dynamite. I agree that if we're ranking pitchers on the basis of what they've accomplished thus far in innings/runs/wins/etc., then Bonderman's not much of a pitcher. But then, Matt Cain's record isn't all that spectacular either.

by Evan on Mar 11, 2008 8:04 AM PDT up reply actions  

Why all the Bonderman love?
Year by year ERA+ since 2003: 77, 91, 93, 112, 91.

This is not "just one season". This is his whole career todate. He has underperformed his FIP and xFIP EVERY SINGLE YEAR, in 915 MLB IPs total.

Year by year FIP(ERA): 4.86(5.56), 4.29(4.89), 3.92(4.57), 3.31(4.08), 4.22(5.01).

He has been hit "unlucky" throughout his career, 47 total "unlucky" hits in 5 seasons.

Maybe, FIP and xFIP and K / BB rates do not paint a full portrait of his abilities, it's not all merely luck and random variation?

He is also 2 years older than Cain.

by rfloh on Mar 11, 2008 1:27 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
I could certainly see Matt's moving up a little on this list, but what makes you so sure that he's "way too f-ing low?"

by sharksrog on Mar 10, 2008 11:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Because I consider him to be a better pitcher than many of the guys he's behind? There's probably a degree of bias involved here because he is my favorite baseball player, but I don't think I'm being particularly biased in thinking that at the very least (taking both performance, ceiling and the ability to stay healthy into account), he is a better pitcher than Jered Weaver, Jon Lester, Homer Bailey, Jeremy Bonderman, and Matt Garza. I think you could make the argument that he's also ahead of or equal to several others who are ahead of him.

This list is a joke, though, not because Cain is ranked so low, but because it doesn't seem to have any discernible method to the ranking. In many ways, it seems like W-L record is given way too much precedence - you can't tell me that if Cain had had a 16-7, 3.65 season last year instead of 7-16, he wouldn't be in the top 5. Like much of Sports Illustrated's baseball writings in the recent past, it's a joke. And yes, I feel comfortable calling Sports Illustrated a joke. Every SI article related to baseball that I've read in the past couple years has been subpar.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Mar 11, 2008 2:16 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
If you said that Matt Cain was ranked too low on this list, I would probably agree with you.  When you say he's "way too f-ing low," I begin to have my doubts about your comment.

Incidentally, while none of us is likely to agree with the precise ranking of the list (even the author likely might change it on another day) I certainly wouldn't call it a joke.

And when you say there is no discernible method to the rankings, that may merely mean that you don't agree with them or don't understand the methods that ARE being used.

I have many disagreements with the rankings on the list, but I certainly wouldn't call it a joke.

by sharksrog on Mar 12, 2008 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Cain is STUPID low.  He's 7th at least, Timmy right behind him at #8.  Screw Joba.  And screw Cole Hamels for that matter, he's not any better than our two.
vote Dan Ortmeier for Will Clark, apr. 4th at your local polling place

by nick @ McCovey Chronicles on Mar 10, 2008 6:45 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Care to give any justification for your comments here, Nick?

by sharksrog on Mar 10, 2008 11:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
screw justification
vote Dan Ortmeier for Will Clark, apr. 4th at your local polling place

by nick @ McCovey Chronicles on Mar 11, 2008 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
If we can't justify something, it's probably not worth saying or believing.

by sharksrog on Mar 12, 2008 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
SI can't seriously justify ranking Cain 18th, can they?
vote Dan Ortmeier for Will Clark, apr. 4th at your local polling place

by nick @ McCovey Chronicles on Mar 12, 2008 8:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
I don't see why not.  After all, it's THEIR list.  :)

I didn't see anywhere in the article where they said that you ranked Matt stupid high.

I mentioned that I would rank Matt above #18, but that I don't consider that ranking to be "stupid low."  

If I were going to justify Matt's being that low, I might start by saying that it is tough to justify having a pitcher whose WHIP over the three full months of May, June and July last season was an embarassing 1.61.  I might add that Matt is one of the few on the list who doesn't appear to have strikeout-an-inning potential and that his control has been below-average over his career.  

And I might add that beginning with his very first start as a Giant, which culminated in a 14-pitch at bat by Todd Helton, Matt has shown far too high a foul ball rate to think of him as a truly dominant pitcher.  I might add that Matt's primary off-speed pitch, his slider, seems to be a home run pitch.

Now, I could make just as many points on Matt's behalf, and my point isn't that Matt might not have been ranked too low -- but that he likely wasn't ranked "stupid low."

by sharksrog on Mar 13, 2008 9:47 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
Right now, I would take Cole Hamels over either of our guys. Have you seen him pitch?
***

Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Mar 11, 2008 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
If ranking by ERA+:

(not counting small sample size anomalies listed at the bottom)

Note: longer service time denoted by bold

  1. Francisco Liriano (163)
  2. Jered Weaver (137)
  3. Chad Billingsley (130)
  4. Cole Hamels (126)
  5. Fausto Carmona (125)
6. Scott Kazmir (123)
  1. Justin Verlander (122)
  2. Yovani Gallardo (122)
9. Matt Cain (119)
  1. Ubaldo Jimenez (114)
  2. Tim Lincecum (111)
12. Felix Hernandez (110)
  1. Tom Gorzelanny (108)
  2. Jon Lester (101)
  3. Phil Hughes (100)
  4. Matt Garza (98)
17. Jeremy Bonderman (93)
18. Homer Bailey (81)

N/A:

Joba Chamberlain (1192 in very limited relief)

Clay Buchholz (298 in very limited starting)

---

I relied on memory on the service time thing, so I might have messed up a little bit.

***

Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Mar 10, 2008 8:13 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: SI's Top 20 Pitchers 25 yrs old or younger
I pretty much agree with what's been said elsewhere, Cain is quite a bit too low as is Gallardo.

Lester, Bailey & Bonderman should all be quite a bit lower.

by GiantFan on Mar 11, 2008 4:27 AM PDT reply actions  

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