One Last Prospect List: SFDugout's Top 50 Giants Prospects

I also think Pereira is underrated. I can't comment on the velocity thing because all the venues where I've seen him pitch lack speed guns. And I'm sorry but I haven't yet downloaded the upgrade for "determine pitch speed totally by sight" into my brain yet. They're still beta-testing it.

1. The difference between Tanner and Noonan was as small a difference as it was.  Both have similar ceilings (Very good, but not overwhelmingly powerful, players), and both had good years.  The difference came down to that Tanner did what he did two levels above where Noonan was.  That's pretty much it.
2. Bowker seems to be one of the more controversial placements.  He's at a high level to be sure, but he has such a poor track record that one good year, even in Connecticut, hasn't quite won me over.  He's going to have to do it again to get me to push for him hard.  That's why I listed him as a make-it-or-break-it year, because if he doesn't, then last year will just be a fluke.  If he does well, then he just might be for real.
3. Downs had a heck of a year, to be sure.  I won't go into one-by-one comparisons with every person you listed, but two things popped out with Downs.  First, he was slightly older...I like Downs, but unlike many of his peers in S-K, he had played in the AZL the previous year.  To me, that would give him an experience advantage (and have him ranked lower).  Why wasn't he in the SAL?  I don't know.  Secondly, he does a lot of things pretty well, but doesn't have a standout tool.  Without having power or speed or contact or defense to stand out, I don't think he's as likely to push ahead.  It's easier for a pitcher with nothing standing out to move up than a hitter.

The difference between Downs and Bond was small.  At the 30+ range, a lot of guys get muddled at about the same level, so even if there's a lot of guys, it's not as big a difference as the volume of guys may make it seem.

Yea, the soft-tossing thing seems to be controversy number one with this list.  McKae and Pucetas both make the list so high partially because they also have the intangibles I really like.  Both put more preparation into the game than almost an player I see.  Pucetas is always the first player on the field for workouts (and even ahead of most coaches), and the last to leave.  McKae has studied both how to stay healthy and ahead of hitters.

One important thing, however: Pucetas throws 90-92.  I don't consider that a soft-tosser, even from a right-hander.  That's a fastball that a good pitcher can be a starter with.

Also, final value makes a difference.  I consider a good middle reliever more valuable than a bench position player.  If a team has an ideal season (few to no injuries), that bullpen pitcher will have a far higher impact on a team's season than any bench player.  And I believe that McKae and Anderson in particular are relatively likely to get to those spots.

(One other funny note...McKae specifically told me he chose to sign with the Giants as a 5th-year senior because he knew the Giants would give him a legitimate shot even without velocity).

On swinging early - Here's the thing...I think a lot of people underrate the fact every pitching coach I've ever met (and most I haven't) preach the 'throw strikes early' approach.  It also assumes that Nate swings at junk.  While there's no stats to prove it, in my experience, Nate does not.

On Velez V. Richardson...funny, it seems that those who (in my mind) overrate walking feel that's a more likely skill to carry over to the bigs than the contact hitting.  But what it really came down to is that Richardson is a very good center fielder, while Velez has problems finding where to play.

Bocock I simply don't get the fascination with.  I don't think his swing will ever develop.

And with Timpner...He could've been a dozen spots or more higher if he were stealing bases at a respectable rate...but without a running game, I don't see him a starter.

What about Chris Begg?  Is he #51?

Ah, I like Geno.  He really bumped up by showing a little versatility as a starter as well as a reliever.  The soft-tossing thing is showing up again with him.  But with Geno, it comes down to his level, and being much higher than the others (except Sandoval, where other things have me down on him) is how he got bumped up.

Surviving to AA as a soft-tosser is a feat, and shouldn't be discounted.  However, his AAA jump will obviously be a big deal.

We get really bored come January.

No seriously. Doing 50 gives us a chance to spotlight just about anyone who's worth a damn in the system. Following minor league baseball is not just about looking for Joba Chamberlains in our system. It's about knowing what's out there and not be blindsided if and when that no-name becomes something good, maybe even great.

The more you know and all that.

I'll lay down a bet that within five years, we'll see 20 of these players get at least a cup of coffee.  Heck, this list is already 20% there (with Nate, Eugenio and Pat having already been in the bigs).

4-5 may be a more reasonable number for a regular contributor in the bigs, but I do think that'll be a little low.

>> Ranking the dross isn't a big deal.

Hey, I learned a new word.

I'll give one very good reason ranking the dross is a good deal...

Even with Spring Training underway, posting this list has within only a few hours been nearly the most commented thread on the front page, and within 24 hours, could be the most commented of the last 50 threads.

People love rankings, reading and debating them...and as far as trying to make the money it takes to run the site, the business it develops can be big, especially in a slow offseason with little optimism.

I usually agree with you a lot   WCW but here, for now,  we differ. I would love a return to Williams, Clark (The Ripper or Will), Davis, Bonds Sr. etc type players coming out of the  system but in the end that is just 1-2 players and we have like 11 holes to fill at this stage.  For an organization that imports and pays top dollar, for scarp metal and league wide dross in a wholesale scale just being able to supply that  for ourselves would be a huge step in the correct direction. Its not a sexy step but it's a necessary one.  

Plus, in theory,  if you have a bunch of say Fred Lewis type players ( flawed but cheap and useful on a MLB roster)  and are usually  open to trading your #4 or #5 starter it should get a lot easier to upgrade potion short  falls with MLB, or near, MLB level talent that is not a scrap heap candidates.  The draw back is this Front Office has to over come Sabean's Dilemma enough to show case  these kind of players for others to be interested in.

McBryde made my list of Top 50 Snubs, and was in fact the one who was closest to making the list.

But even with his speed, his contact issues, plate discipline, and health all were enough to downgrade him that low.

Terriers?

Now see if we're talking names then I'm sorry but Joey Martinez is the #1 prospect because all the good people are named Martinez.

At least your name isn't a curse.

It seems like every Kevin that pitches against the Giants throws a no-hitter.

That may be why I want Correia and Pucetas to break the curse.

My first time in the major league clubhouse, I swear to god this is the interaction.

Press Guy: Guys, this is Kevin Cunningham, he writes for SFDugout.com.
Aurilia: Hey, how's it going? (shakes hand)
Lewis: Yo (no shake, but a wave of the hand)
Player #3: Oh yea, I know your site...you guys ripped me last year.
Me: (silence, shrug and a sheepish smile)...uh, yea, sorry, sometimes we can be a little rough.

For the life of me, I still don't know who that guy was.