Open Dan Ortmeier Thread

Re: Open Dan Ortmeier Thread

I have to agree. He's had two minor league seasons with an OPS over .800 and he's never really been young for his league.

Even right now he's only got a .303 OBP. He's hitting for decent power, but I can't see him being anything more than a 5th OF/1B type.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Aug 19, 2007 3:47 PM PDT reply actions

Re: Open Dan Ortmeier Thread

Thinking about it, I think he could have a Mark Sweeney type career if it all goes right.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Aug 19, 2007 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions

Re: Open Dan Ortmeier Thread

I'm suspect he will regress to his mean, but how will we know unless if we give him a shot?

The fact is, that every player that is not in the bigs, is a prospect. That said, Ortmeier is not an uber-prospect, heck, he isn't even a strong-prospect. But every once in a while, guys play better than they were projected to, and that is just because the projections were wrong.

There are many reasons why this happens, but they are all irrelevant. We have a shitty team, we give some AAA guys a shot, and some of them start showing more in the bigs than they ever did in the minors. It is hard to explain, but one of the main reasons is the statistic-driven cult following of baseball -- people look TOO heavily into stats. Another is the fact that some guys just rise up to the occasion. Keep this in mind: there are MANY all-stars that were late draft picks, there are MANY good players that were not the best minor league prospects.

We did not bring Bochy in to manage a bunch of over-the-hill softies + Barry. We brough Bochy in to lead our youth movement. And now that we have gone ALL-IN for the last year, and failed, we can finally look to a younger future. A lot of people look at our AAA roster/stats and do not see much to look forward to. But then you look at guys like Lewis and Ortmeier, who didn't really have the best AAA #'s, and yet they both have had success at the big level. Does that mean they will continue to have success? Who knows. But there is only one way to find out for sure.

We suck, we need to go young. Who cares if Thomas De La Rosa isn't batting .350? He is batting .290 and he costs 8 times less than Vizquel. Scott McClain may be 35 years old, but he has hit 28 homers so far this year and I would much rather see someone like him than Klesko at this point.

Let the kids play, see what we got, go on from there.

I need old crusty vets like I need a nail driven into my brain.

by BawLa on Aug 19, 2007 4:17 PM PDT reply actions

feel free...

to name the many all-stars at any time.

Players whom neither the scouts nor the stats support have almost no chance of turning into useful players. Does it happen occasionally? I guess (although I can't think of any great examples0 People win the lottery all the time. That doesn't mean I should expect to finance my house with the next ticket I buy.

Flossing a dead horse

by kenshin1 on Aug 19, 2007 4:25 PM PDT up reply actions

Re: feel free...

I remember on the day of this year's draft, they were showing some all-stars and where they got drafted. Many were not in the top rounds. I will try to find some time to get you specific names and draft locations.

It isn't about the frequency of it happening. That is irrelevant at this point. The fact is that we suck, we need to get younger, we need to clear money off the books, and we are not in contention for at least the next year and a half. So it makes sense, during that time, to create an environment that helps young talent get better.

You make it sound like giving young guys a chance to play in the bigs is taxing on the now and on the future of the club. That is exactly the opposite of the truth. They are cheap, they are young, they play with everything because they have everything to prove and nothing to lose.

Be careful not to mistake what I say as what I think WILL happen. Nowhere have I said that Ortmeier or Lewis or others WILL be great or even good players. I'm just saying that for the next year or so, I am willing to watch the Giants suck, as long as it is a bunch of kids that are getting better. And who knows, maybe we will hit the lottery at the same time. I'm not counting on it, but it has 0 chance of happening when guys like Roberts, Vizquel and Durham are in there almost everyday.

I need old crusty vets like I need a nail driven into my brain.

by BawLa on Aug 19, 2007 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions

Re: feel free...

I think your lottery ticket analogy is a particularly apt one. But while I agree the odds are against Ortmeier and Davis (and maybe even Lewis and Frandsen) being long-term solutions to the Giants offensive woes, those tickets are at least worth holding onto until we can determine whether we have a winner or not. The best way to do that is to play them now while we have nothing to lose.

by English Professor on Aug 19, 2007 6:01 PM PDT up reply actions

Re: feel free...

And it doesn't really apply to Ortmeier, though I don't think Kenshin was referring directly to him. The scouts have always liked Ortmeier; it's the performance that's been lacking.

It's the exception rather than the rule, but sometimes things click into place for toolsy guys with underwhelming stats. I'd be giddy if Ortmeier were one of those guys.

by Grant Brisbee on Aug 19, 2007 6:10 PM PDT up reply actions

yes...

my main point is that very few good players are missed by both the stats and the scouts. That said, I thought scouts view Ort as more of a 4th outfielder than a legit prospect.

Flossing a dead horse

by kenshin1 on Aug 19, 2007 6:40 PM PDT up reply actions

Re: yes...

He was always on the borderline of 4th OF/prospect, and the meh performance probably swayed a lot of folks over to the 4th OF side, but there was never a question about his overall athleticism. When he had his semi-breakout year in the Cal League, there were a ton of folks just waiting to jump on the bandwagon because they knew the tools were there, IIRC.

by Grant Brisbee on Aug 19, 2007 6:44 PM PDT up reply actions

Re: yes...

Actually I'd say he's always been viewed as a guy with a lot of tools who's bat could play at the top levels, a unique power/speed/defense combo. Injuries sustained from some over-aggressive defense stripped him of some tools (notably a plus arm in RF) and I think undermined her performances, but scouts did still like his bat as recently as a year ago.

by Roger on Aug 20, 2007 4:48 AM PDT up reply actions

Re: feel free...

Ortmeier was a 3rd round pick in 2002. It's not too hard to find All-Stars picked in the 3rd round: Grady Sizemore, Justin Morneau, Hank Blalock, and Barry Zito. As for later rounds, Papelbon was a 4th rounder, Ryan Howard 5th, Matt Holliday 7th, Dontrelle Willis and Brandon Webb 8th. Texeira was a 9th rounder, Freddy Sanchez 11th, Albert Pujols 13th.

I only went back to the 98 draft, 'cause I'm lazy, and I didn't even count a few guys like Randy Winn (3rd round) because his one AS selection was as a D-Ray.

Proud adoptive father of the All-Father and his 2.29 ERA

by EliminateMe on Aug 20, 2007 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions

Re: Open Dan Ortmeier Thread

I could see him as a fifth outfielder who hits lefties well and plays good defense.

by Dan from NM on Aug 19, 2007 4:33 PM PDT reply actions

Re: Open Dan Ortmeier Thread

He's got speed, he's got power, he's got an arm like a rocket. Of course he can't play, just ask the experts. They're the same experts who have kept Rajai Davis in the minor leagues his whole life. You know what?? The experts are right alot more often than they're wrong, but they're still wrong alot. I think he's at least a good platoon player in the major leagues, and maybe more than that. I would love to see him playing everyday the rest of this season to see what he can or cannot be. We already know what Dave Roberts and Randy Winn can do, see you guys next April....maybe.

Randy Messenger says,"We're in Florida this weekend?? Maybe I should have just punched Scott Olsen again!"

by rxmeister on Aug 19, 2007 4:46 PM PDT reply actions

I don't think it was the experts...

I think it was the fact that Davis pretty much sucked.

Flossing a dead horse

by kenshin1 on Aug 19, 2007 4:54 PM PDT up reply actions

PS:

whatever you think of Davis now, you can't really disagree with the above.

Flossing a dead horse

by kenshin1 on Aug 19, 2007 4:55 PM PDT up reply actions

Can't Disagree?

Rajai Davis career minor league line: .305/.375/.404 with 251 SB's and 71 CS. That's not sucking for a leadoff hitter, especially when you factor in that he's played his last 3 seasons in the EL and IL, both notoriously difficult hitting environments.

by DrBGiantsfan on Aug 19, 2007 6:14 PM PDT up reply actions

apparently you can disagree. ;-)

Without turning this into a Rajai Davis thread, how many prospects have made it with a career 404 slugging percentage in the minors? That's a fine line for a major league leadoff hitter but most players experience some drop off in the AAA to ML transition. His MLE's sucked.

Flossing a dead horse

by kenshin1 on Aug 19, 2007 6:38 PM PDT up reply actions

I don't feel like I explained this very...

well. It's very difficult to maintain a good OBP without ANY power. Major league pitchers are just to good to consistently walk a player they have no fear of throwing a mistake pitch to. If there is one thing Davis' minor league track record shows pretty consistently its that he had 0 pop. If he subsequently loses any of his on base skills, he goes from legit leadoff hitter to major liability pretty quickly.

Flossing a dead horse

by kenshin1 on Aug 19, 2007 7:19 PM PDT up reply actions

Re: I don't feel like I explained this very...

.404 is actually a pretty good SLG% for a leadoff hitter, enough to keep pitchers and defenses honest. I would interpret those stats as being a pretty good indicator of maintaining in the big leagues. He actally could suffer some dropoff and still maintain value with that SB rate and %.

by DrBGiantsfan on Aug 19, 2007 7:30 PM PDT up reply actions

404???

really???

Flossing a dead horse

by kenshin1 on Aug 19, 2007 7:30 PM PDT up reply actions

Really

by DrBGiantsfan on Aug 19, 2007 7:33 PM PDT up reply actions

Re: Really

Agreed. Preach the word good Doctor.

by Keenlow on Aug 19, 2007 10:26 PM PDT up reply actions

MLE's

Suck.

by DrBGiantsfan on Aug 19, 2007 7:23 PM PDT up reply actions

let's not start this fight....

you will never change

Flossing a dead horse

by kenshin1 on Aug 19, 2007 7:30 PM PDT up reply actions

I'll Never Change?

Since when are MLE's the end all be all for determining if a prospect sucks?

by DrBGiantsfan on Aug 19, 2007 7:32 PM PDT up reply actions

Re: I'll Never Change?

their not. but to say that they suck is silly (and wrong)

Flossing a dead horse

by kenshin1 on Aug 19, 2007 7:37 PM PDT up reply actions

Just My Opinion

Maybe suck wasn't a good choice of words, but no worse than what you used to describe Rajai Davis. IMO, MLE's are fairly useless stats and I don't think I'm wrong.

by DrBGiantsfan on Aug 19, 2007 8:16 PM PDT up reply actions

Re: Just My Opinion

Because, after all, most guys who make it to the majors have terrible minor league stats.

by zenbitz on Aug 20, 2007 7:49 AM PDT up reply actions

Of Course They Don't

That's just the point. Rajai Davis does not have terrible minor league stats. MLE's are not stats. They are deriviatons of stats and not very valid ones at that.

by DrBGiantsfan on Aug 20, 2007 8:36 AM PDT up reply actions

Re: Of Course They Don't

Christ...is there anything more draining than statheads arguing about prospects and the validity of some make-believe numbers.

Omar says, "Dammit gaffer! Bring in a few defenders, a mid-fielder or two, and nice pull w/Alan Smith."

by PacBellBoozer on Aug 20, 2007 9:19 AM PDT up reply actions

Thank You!

I agree completely, "make believe" being the key words here.

by DrBGiantsfan on Aug 20, 2007 9:35 AM PDT up reply actions

give me make believe numbers...

over some dude's random opinion every day of the week.

Flossing a dead horse

by kenshin1 on Aug 20, 2007 1:20 PM PDT up reply actions

Real Numbers

I will take real numbers plus an educated opinion over the misuse of derivative formulas any day.

by DrBGiantsfan on Aug 20, 2007 7:50 PM PDT up reply actions

Re: Open Dan Ortmeier Thread

I think he's got as good of a chance to be an above average major leaguer as Kevin Frandsen.

by mxmob33 on Aug 19, 2007 5:05 PM PDT reply actions

Re: Open Dan Ortmeier Thread

I like Ort and I hope he sticks in some fashion with the team.

I think he could be great as a 4th OF type.

by xanthan on Aug 19, 2007 5:20 PM PDT reply actions

Re: Open Dan Ortmeier Thread

I'm a n00b here, so feel free to flame away, but I do like Ort. And Rajai, and Lewis. All of these guys may only rise to the level of a fourth OF, but our starters (with the exception of BLB) look like fourth OF's.

I just want to have something to be excited about next year. I don't see the G's opening the pocket book and signing Hunter and Rowand, to leave a $15M bench of Roberts and Winn. Let 'em play.

I need a Sig ? Damn It !

by nvsfg on Aug 19, 2007 5:35 PM PDT up reply actions

Re: Open Dan Ortmeier Thread

Hooray for n00bs! I'm with you, Ort has looked pretty good with the bat, fields and throws well in the OF, and can play 1B. No reason not to make him prove he can't hit. Also, he looks have some serious pop right-handed - 2 opposite field HR's, and 2 deep triples that way as well. He might end up being a good platoon partner for Lewis, who's numbers have always been much better vs. RHP.

by English Professor on Aug 19, 2007 5:47 PM PDT up reply actions

Re: Open Dan Ortmeier Thread

the thing that has impressed me with guys like Davis, Ort, and Lewis is that they are willing to take pitches and draw walks. We fans have moaned over the last few years, watching this team trade for and sign one free swinger after another, and wondering why everybody on this team is a hacker. We've complained about the team not teaching patience at the plate, but it looks like the organization might finally be changing their philosphy, because the guys making it up here now are infinitely more patient than the ones they're replacing. I can't tell you how frustrated I was watching opposing pitchers get to the ninth inning with 80 pitches thrown.

Randy Messenger says,"We're in Florida this weekend?? Maybe I should have just punched Scott Olsen again!"

by rxmeister on Aug 20, 2007 5:57 AM PDT up reply actions

Re: Open Dan Ortmeier Thread

I am proud of my son, no matter what.

Who dat is? That's just Ortmeier's daddy.

by rotorueter on Aug 19, 2007 5:27 PM PDT reply actions

Incredible amounts of disagreement

Orty can play left and right, switch hit, and is learning first. I don't think 26 is too old for him to learn to play a good defensive first, either.

If Barry thinks he's got the best swing of any of our prospects, I'll go with it. I think he has the stuff to hit major league pitching, and should be starting next year at 1st if we get rid of klesko. Yeah, I said it.

And Boom Goes the Dynamite

by Andy from DC on Aug 19, 2007 6:00 PM PDT reply actions

I don't not believe!

I like this kid, he's got the tools and the talent, he just has to figure it out. That ain't gonna happen anywhere else but on the major league roster.

Adopting Dave Roberts since 2007

by hometownboy on Aug 19, 2007 6:12 PM PDT reply actions

Re: Open Dan Ortmeier Thread

We can't know for sure about Ortmeier until he has an extended opportunity to play in the big leagues. We found out about Linden and got rid of him. It is time to find out about the young Giants. Give them a chance and let them play.

by ektrod on Aug 19, 2007 6:14 PM PDT reply actions

Re: Open Dan Ortmeier Thread

I disagree. I do believe he can be in the future for the giants, maybe as a 1B so we won't have the OF crowded in 2/3/4 years with Rajai Lewis and Nasty Nate. Seriously, I like Ort.

The rally pumpkin guy, helping the city alleviate the pathetic-ness of the Giants.

by jtoj on Aug 19, 2007 6:30 PM PDT reply actions

Re: Open Dan Ortmeier Thread

agree... but I certainly hope I'm wrong. Get the kid some ABs and let's find out (and I'm fine with those ABs coming with Ort playing 1B-- God knows he's better than any other young high-level corner IF SF has in the pipeline).

Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...

by Smoke on the Water on Aug 19, 2007 6:35 PM PDT reply actions

Re: Open Dan Ortmeier Thread

Ortmeier has an OPS of 823. Only Bonds and (surprise) Davis, both over 1000, are better. (Who said Davis runs like Mays but hits like Hayes?)
So what's not to like about Ortmeier? His fielding? His speed?
Who submitted this question - Giants management? Only they would sit a prospect with decent numbers.
How to find out if there's any validity to them? Play him. The season's over - management HAS to play him.

by DiMaggio Fan on Aug 19, 2007 7:10 PM PDT reply actions

say it with me...

It is just impossible, one way or the other, to draw meaningful conclusions from 80 bats.

Flossing a dead horse

by kenshin1 on Aug 19, 2007 7:20 PM PDT up reply actions

Re: say it with me...

From stats? Yes. But empirically? No. Eighty ABs can show you a lot, though not everything. Its enough to determine how he adjusts his swing from PA to PA. How quickly does he get out of the box. How is his baserunning IQ? Can he adjust his swing mid-AB. How solid is his footwork? How well is he picking the ball up? Does he have a plan before he gets in the box? Is there some small thing in his swing, like hand placement, or shoulder set, that maybe if tweaked will help him stay back on breaking pitches, yet still be able to turn on a good fastball?

There's a lot of things you can tell about a guy in 80ABs. Thats why I was always down on Niekro and Frandsen, in spite of their very nice MILB stats. I hated both their swings. Frandsen is just slow. You can't coach hand quickness. Niekro just looked like a bad version of Glenallen Hill without the strength.

Hell if I know if either Davis or Ortmeir are going to be any good down the road. Nobody does. I like their chances better than Niekro's and Frandsens however.

In the meantime, I'm really enjoying their success, even if it turns out to be temporary.

Barry Zito -- Catch Me if You Can.

by E Ticket on Aug 19, 2007 8:25 PM PDT up reply actions

Re: Open Dan Ortmeier Thread

Eighty at-bats -- which is what Ortmeier is at -- isn't going to tell you much at all. The 2200 minor league at-bats he has will tell you a lot more. Eighty is way too small of a sample to gauge. Anything under a couple of hundred doesn't mean much if you're trying to predict a player's future. Otherwise, Jonathan Sanchez would be the best hitter on the Giants with a 3.000 OPS.

(He might be in the top five, though....)

by Grant Brisbee on Aug 19, 2007 7:21 PM PDT up reply actions

Re: Open Dan Ortmeier Thread

AGREE!

Sagundase....DAJAUNEE QUEEPEY!!!! (proud adopter of Mr. Kruk and Sir Kuip)

by iNOeverything on Aug 19, 2007 7:25 PM PDT reply actions

Re: Open Dan Ortmeier Thread

I like Ort and hope like heck he will turn into a useful ballplayer. However, I don't see him being able to hit well enough left handed to be an everyday player.

I do think he can make a useful platoon partner/4th OF, but we seem to have too many of those types already.

He should get regular playing time the rest of the way because the team needs to see what he can do. Who knows, he may prove that he is for real. We are definitely overdue for some luck as far as position prospects go.

Adopted Giant Brian Wilson: Welcome Back!

by sfgreg on Aug 19, 2007 9:19 PM PDT reply actions

Re: Open Dan Ortmeier Thread

If he is the one of the best SF has then play him. If Ortmeier was on another team would I want SF to trade for him? Not to be a starter.

by wilriv21 on Aug 19, 2007 9:55 PM PDT reply actions

Re: Open Dan Ortmeier Thread

I agree 80 at bats is too short a time to ring out a verdict on a player. Because of that, Ort should start every game the rest of the way. Xanthan brought up the prospect of signing Mike Sweeney to a 1 year incentive deal next year but if Ort finishes as strong as he's played so far I'd love to see him starting next year at 1st. He's always had the tools and I don't see any reason to be a Debbie Downer and say what he's doing is a fluke so I will poll my vote on the side of believing he's figured something out.

by Keenlow on Aug 19, 2007 10:35 PM PDT reply actions

Re: Open Dan Ortmeier Thread

why even start this thread??

the season has been over since early july...so is there a point to playing the vets anymore??

of course there isnt

so bring up as many aaa and aa players that are ready, and let them go at it...that includes ort

i would much rather watch a player making minimum, who is under 30 and trying to prove that he belongs, then all the stiffs we have been forced to watch this season

by bacci40 on Aug 20, 2007 12:55 AM PDT reply actions

Re: Open Dan Ortmeier Thread

Amen to that!

The development thing is an old argument, and one that needs to be taken with a grain of salt when talking about the Giants. All the 40 man roster prospects (who aren't pitchers) are old, because we always seem to have manager and a GM who prefer vets.

If he reverts to his minor league mean (270/350/780) I'll take that, especially considering in his off years he was either hurt (2004) or sitting on a major league bench for a month losing his confidence (2006).

Besides, think of all the Giants glory days and the prospects who got their start after the age of 27 that we used to love-- Aurilia/Kent/ ....ahhh....ahhhhh Bernard ahhhh.... Rios. Oh Well.

"But I AM a stepchild!"-Pedro Feliz

by Smotheredinhugs on Aug 20, 2007 4:14 AM PDT up reply actions

Re: Open Dan Ortmeier Thread

I disagree. We don't know that he can't play in the majors. Since there is a chance that he can, and especially since playing Ortmeier at 1B doesn't exactly block Von Schell, Ishikawa, Pill, or anybody else in our system, I say let him play 1B the rest of the year and see what we've got. If he survives, he's got my vote for 1B next year.

Your 2012 NL ERA champion: Sergio Romo

by Lyle @ McCovey Chronicles on Aug 20, 2007 6:26 AM PDT reply actions

Re: Open Dan Ortmeier Thread

He snores.

by Todd Linden on Aug 20, 2007 7:08 AM PDT reply actions

Re: Open Dan Ortmeier Thread

The Giants starting outfield has a payroll of twenty-five million. Isn't that what keeps Boche from playing Ortmeier more often? It's not that easy to sit guys like that, much as it probably should be done.
For those who don't like Ortmeier - who among the prospects do you suggest the Giants play? Who has better major league numbers other than Davis, who has far fewer Giant ABs?
And of course eighty at bats is too few - that's not the right question.
How many at bats is enough? That's the right question.
160 - 180 ABs sounds a better number for a fair evaulation. At that point it will be clearer whether we have another Linden, or someone with everyday potential.

by DiMaggio Fan on Aug 20, 2007 8:19 AM PDT reply actions

Re: Open Dan Ortmeier Thread

I don't mind Ortmeier too much, though of our borderline outfield prospects, he's probably my least favorite. I'd be all for giving him a fair chance as long as those other guys got a fairer one (Davis, Lewis, Schierholtz). Since there's a fair chance that Nate still needs plenty of time before his fair chance is warranted, that helps Ort's chances. The fact that we need to get rid of Winn AND Roberts to be able to give all of these guys a fair shake tends to hurt Ort's chances.

And there's still plenty of time for me to sour on Rajai "singles power, triples speed" Davis.

But I'm not interested in having him play first next year. I said it before and I'll say it again: If Dan Ortmeier is the Giants best option at first base in 2008, this ballclub has much, much bigger problems than I realized. I don't know who would be better this second, so don't ask me, but I do know there has to be somebody better. There just has to be.

Coming to you by proxy (I adopted: Dave Righetti!)

by howtheyscored on Aug 20, 2007 9:12 AM PDT reply actions

Re: Open Dan Ortmeier Thread

I want Ort platooning with Klesko next year and getting 350 AB's. Unless we have a "real" prospect who can play first. Niekro's had his shot. Ish can't hit - like, REALLY can't hit. And Klesko could be cheap and decent next year.
howtheyscored, this ballclub has much, much bigger problems than you realized :P

Southern California: Water thieves and Dodgers fans.

by jasomack on Aug 20, 2007 10:37 AM PDT up reply actions

Re: Open Dan Ortmeier Thread

Unless the Giants can sign Alex Rodriguez and keep Barry Bonds I don't see the need for anyone over 30.

As for Ortmeier, he hits lefties well and could be a good platoon player -- especially since he can now play four positions. But I will be shocked if Dan is ever much more than a 24th or 25th man type.

by sharksrog on Aug 20, 2007 5:02 PM PDT up reply actions