To Sabean Critics

As recently as the end of the 2002 season I was willing to make an argument for Brian's being one of if not the best general managers in the big leagues.  Now for this year's state of the Sabean:

Brian Sabean's strategy as general manager of the Giants reminds me of those who live on their entire salary and figure they will take care of retirement when it comes around.  Brian has mortgaged the Giants future both by trading prospects to fill present holes and ultimately by giving up draft picks in order to sign mediocre free agents.

Over at El Lefty Malo, Lefty used the prospect ratings of Kevin Goldstein of BP to show that the Giants prospects were the 24th-best in the majors.  And that included the potentially-awesome Tim Lincecum and Angel Villalona as well as the highly intriguing Jonathan Sanchez.  Unfortunately, beyond that trio, the cupboard is bare -- especially with regard to prospects who are likely to have an impact over the remainder of this decade.

Brian has stated that the playoffs are a crapshoot, so his goal has been to put together a Giants team good enough to make the playoffs.  In four of his ten seasons to date, he has been successful in that regard.

Yet Brian has constructed few if any great teams, winding up primarily with teams that were on the cusp of the playoffs, one way or the other.  Four years they made the postseason.  Four years they didn't.  Then the past two seasons, as the strategy of finding value in older players has begun to play itself out, the Giants have become a sub-.500 team.

As we look at 2007, the Giants are once again loaded with older players who are mostly average-to-good, but with little greatness.  Thanks primarily to drafting Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum with their first-round draft choices in 2002 and 2006, the Giants are building some good, young pitching.  But after April, the Giants will have no one among their starting eight who is younger than 32.  Omar Vizquel will hit 40 in April; Bonds, 43 in July.  Aside from Bonds, none of their everyday players is likely to be an all-star without having a near-career season.

The Giants pitching in 2007 should be improved.  But their biggest problem the past two seasons hasn't been pitching as much as their having averaged fewer than 700 runs per year.  The Giants offensive woes began when Bonds missed almost the entire 2005 season.  But they didn't disappear with a healthy Bonds in 2006, and they likely haven't disappeared in 2007.  They no longer have Moises Alou, their second-best hitter the past two seasons, nor have they adequately replaced him (DAVE ROBERTS???).  

A wonderful renaissance by Ray Durham after returning from the disabled list in 2006 helped save the Giants from complete embarassment at the plate, but is it realistic for the aging Durham to come close to repeating his career year?  

Unless they are able to pull off the miracle of either somehow trading for much-needed power or having Barry Bonds remain healthy and returning to his 2001-2004 form, the Giants just aren't going to score enough runs to be an excellent team.  They may well have difficulty being a good one.

With a starting lineup with no one younger than the stated 32 and no particularly intriguing players above Class A in the minors, the Giants hitting may not revive until the arrival of Angel Villalona.  Angel is only 16 years of age, so how likely is he to be a big factor before the end of the decade?

Yes, the Giants pitching appears on the verge of being postseason material.  But since it is run differential that leads to the wins that put a team into a high postseason seed, the Giants will need good hitting, as well.  Just where is that going to come from?  

Without Barry Bonds, the Giants would likely struggle to score 700 runs.  As recently as 2004 they scored 850, but barring a miracle they won't approach that figure in 2007.  Put 850 runs with the Giants pitching, and you have a very good team.  Put 800 runs with their pitching and you have a good one.  At 750 runs, they are mediocre, and at 700 runs, they are almost certainly sub-.500.

Yes, the Giants will free up a lot of money to replace Barry's bat, likely at the end of the 2007 season.  But once Barry leaves, they will likely be at least two and probably three very good bats away from being a good offensive team.  And they have few prospects to trade to acquire those bats.

And that, unfortunately, is the state of the Sabean -- just four years after he came so close to winning a World Championship.  It's been almost all downhill since.

I don't think my late father would be as proud of Brian as he had hoped to be.  I know I'm not.

That was Grant Brisbee on October 30, 2006. Well said, sir, well said.

(I'm a team player.)

Giants W - 889 L - 729 .549
Dodgers W - 849 L - 771 .524
D'backs* W - 728 L - 731 .499
Padres W - 790 L - 830 .469
Rockies W - 745 L - 875 .460

* the Diamondbacks have only been in existence for nine of Sabean's ten years.

and just for fun:

A's W - 890 L - 729 .550 (the A's have played one more game than the Giants over the ten year period and have otherwise a identical recored.)

Not too bad.

It make no sense that Sabean hasn't acquired any young up-and-comers over the past two seasons.  Anyone else in his shoes would have been furiously wheeling and dealing to get talent in place that would be hitting its stride in the year or two after Bonds retires.  This has not occured, to the shock of almost everyone watching.

The situation instead is that the Giants need massive fixes on the offense and have nobody to trade to get it.  They have no farm system producing starting talent.  They will thus need to be overly reliant on the free agent market.

The biggest irony is that the best players have been the oldest.  Vizquel has been good yet it's incredibly unwise to invest in him for two more years.  The best free agent next season out there will be Alex Rodriguez.  The Giants can make a run to sign him.  Will they choose not to so as to keep a 41 year old Vizquel for another year or two?  What happens after that?

If they choose not to spend big on the big name Rodriguez will they instead use that money to fill out two or three positions with talented players?  Show me names, because I don't see them.

Sabean is an uninspiring GM.  The worst part is that the team across the Bay has half the money and tons of injury problems yet manages to put 5 all-star caliber offensive players on the field every year.

You make a very good point that the A's will have their hands full being competitive this season, although I would attribute that at least as much to the absence of Thomas as to the loss of Barry Zito.  Still, I think the A's are still stronger than the Giants at this time.  And, yes, that damning them with somewhat faint praise.

As for Billy Beane, perhaps only the Twins GM has gotten as much out of his money as has Billy.  The A's somehow remained very good even after losing Jason Giambi, Miguel Tejada, Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder.  If they can pull off doing so afer adding Thomas and Zito to their loss list, I think Beane may be worthy of magician status.

As Draper goes this one's worth reading.  

http://sanfrancisco.giants.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070223&content_id=1813376&vkey=spt 2007news&fext=.jsp&c_id=sf