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Around SBN: Defense FAIL: Purdue 76, Michigan State 64

Jottings

  • Jamey Wright is the answer, but only if the question is, "What would Russ Ortiz's career numbers look like if he had played in Coors Field?" I'll give anyone a free pass after pitching in Coors, but Wright showed nothing in Milwaukee, Indianapolis, Omaha, Oklahoma, or Colorado Springs to indicate he'll ever be more than a below-average pitcher. I hope to be proven wrong, and the free pass given to Coors victims does extend quite a bit.

    A lot of my anti-Wright sentiments come from his yicky K/BB ratios, and from the fact he strikes out less than five batters for every nine innings he pitches. He has, however, been able to parlay those awful peripherals into three full major-league seasons with an ERA under 5.00, all in hitter's parks. Maybe walks and strikeouts aren't the best way to measure a wild groundball pitcher like Wright, just as they often shortchanged the best years of Ortiz's career. I have absolutely no interest in watching a pitcher who averages a walk every other inning. That's just boring baseball. But with a spacious ballpark and renewed confidence, maybe Wright can approximate the performance turned in by Brett Tomko last year. Doubtful, but March isn't the time to completely write a player off.

  • Hey. That's kind of fun. With a new workout regiment and a clearly defined role, maybe Jason Ellison can approximate the performance turned in by Dave Roberts last year. Doubtful, but...well, just doubtful. I'm a sucker for the puff stories that include things like, "Player X decided to get stronger in the offseason," and Ellison has certainly been backing it up with his spring stats. However, I'll keep the cynicism up until June. Were it up to me, Linden would make the team and Ellison would be starting for the Marlins, a team desperate for any sort of center fielder.

    I also wouldn't trade Linden. Yes, he looked like a bastard child of J.R. Phillips born without thumbs in his major league time the last two seasons, but Linden led the minors in slugging percentage. I don't care if a player is repeating a league for the 17th time, and I don't care if the player is in the Pacific Coast League, you can't just discard that kind of power before making absolutely sure it isn't going to translate to the majors. His trade value isn't going to be any higher, but that doesn't make a difference when the value is negligible to begin with.

  • With new hamstrings taken from a decathlete's cadaver and twenty less pounds, maybe Armando Benitez can approximate the performance turned in by Brad Lidge last year. Doubtful, but March isn't the time to completely write a player off.

    Wait, no, I think I've filed the initial paperwork which allows me to completely write Benitez off. When pitchers like Matt Cain or Matt Morris have lofty ERAs in the spring, it isn't a big concern. Nothing should be in spring training. The case of Benitez is different, however. At no point in his young Giants career has he shown even a glimmer of the talent which made him rich. The injury he had was serious, and it's understandable if the road to recovery is a long one, but it's disconcerting when Felipe Alou is getting excited about low-90s fastballs. Benitez didn't look like much of a pitcher before the injury, he didn't look so hot when he was rushed back, and the trend is continuing into April.

    I remember going to Arizona in March of 2000, and watching a post-surgery Robb Nen warm in the bullpen. It was a sad and depressing event. The fastballs couldn't get past the typical community college benchwarmer, and the sliders never came close to the plate. He came in to pitch in the game, and was slapped around by Milwaukee's Z-team for six batters. At that point, I wouldn't have picked Nen in a fantasy draft if it were a choice between him and an injured Rich Loiselle. Nen shut me up, and done shut me up right, having one of the best seasons of his career.

    The moral of the story? I'm still ready to write off Benitez, even after that heartwarming anecdote.

    Panic-free time allotted to Wright: Ten starts
    Panic-free time allotted to Ellison: 100 at-bats
    Panic-free time allotted to Benitez: One double allowed. It ain't fair, but it's the truth.

0 recs  |  Comment 33 comments

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Re: Jottings
Groundball pitcher? Yicky K/BB ratio? ERA just under 5.00? In a lot of ways the Jamey Wright you describe sounds a lot like 2003-4 era Kirk Reuter, and Woody was more than serviceable as our #2 or #3 starter. From that perspective, Wright seems like a pretty good tradeoff for the #5 guy, if all other pieces of the Giants pitching staff fall into place.

by Kitspool on Mar 28, 2006 2:50 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Jottings
I actually had Rueter down, and then backspaced it for some reason.

by Grant on Mar 28, 2006 3:52 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Jottings
I have no problem with trading strikeouts for groundballs with Wright, but yeah... I think those walks will drive my crazy before long.
"Robb Nen is going to get you" - Benito Santiago to Chipper Jones, 10/7/02

by Pants Man on Mar 28, 2006 3:03 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Jottings
A double allowed? I'm panicking if he starts off a hitter 2-0.

Okay, I'll be honest. I'm panicking when he warms up.

"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f***ing amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK

by Josh from Hollywood on Mar 28, 2006 3:03 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Jottings
Just don't sit behind him, and the panic will be much less.  I speak from experience.

by Skaldheim on Mar 28, 2006 4:36 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Jottings
Why must you continue to diss ma man, Wright?  :^)

You need to look at his road numbers for more valid metrics, everything gets too skewed in Colorado.  

OK, he still walks way too many guys per 9 but he keeps his H/9 down and so his stat line over the past three years on the road is not bad, and it would be pretty good for a #5 starter:  ERA 4.07, WHIP 1.51, BA .256, 6.0 K/9, 4.7 W/9, which leads to the low K/W of 1.3, and 0.9 HR/9.  His career road numbers are not much worse, if you think it was a fluke three years and not growth, his ERA was 4.25 and his WHIP was 1.51 for his career, with 5.1 K/9, 4.5 W/9, 0.8 HR/9, 1.2 K/W.  Either would be great for a #5 starter.

He gets away with his high WHIP and W/9 and low K/W because he is one of the extreme groundball pitchers in the majors, the ratio to FB was around 2 over the past 3 seasons and has been around 2 for his whole career.  I calculated his WHIP/9 (or BR/9 in other terminology) and subtracted 0.8 runner for a double play each game (0.8 DP/games started over his career), his WHIP drops to 1.42, which is good period; and with the good Giants defense, the DP would go up and the WHIP could go even lower.  

And we saw how a sinkerball pitcher does in SF with Munter.  Wright is also a sinkerballer too.  That lead to his career numbers in SF being great:  2.29 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, .184 BAA, but there's the old walk bugaboo, 5.3 W/9, but it is probably inflated a bit by Bonds, 3.1 K/9 (Giants have a lot of disciplined hitters in Bonds, Alou, Durham, Alfonzo, Snow, Vizquel, over the past few years who walk a lot and don't strike out a lot), and zero homers.

Combine both together, and Wright looks like a cinch to at least match what Jensen, Foppert, Moss, and Hennessey provided as the 5th starter over the past few years, looks like he can possibly match what Tomko has done for the Giants as our 3rd starter, and possibly could even throw in a high-3 ERA if things work out like they have in the past.

You need to put on Orange glasses and if you look closely and reverse the image, you'll see Kirk Rueter on the mound instead of Jamey Wright.

And the last kicker is this provides Hennessey a chance to spend a year in AAA, hopefully unbothered, to work on becoming consistently good instead of a roll of the dice.  With Correia as the first runner up, he gets first dibs on any starter opening and maybe Matt Kiney slides into the Miss Congenality spot and come up to start if they need another starter beyond Correia and maybe Fassero.  

You saw how good Hennessey could be on his best days, we need to maximize the odds that he does that on a regular basis, instead of irregularly.  People forget that he was just recovering from his tumor surgeries when he came up in 2004, it was his first healthy year, so he has been bouncing around between the majors and minors for the past two seasons.  Stabilize him by keeping him in AAA at almost all cost in 2006 so that he can maximize his potential for 2007 and beyond by working on becoming consistent, else we risk him becoming another Tomko wandering from team to team giving a new excuse why he is not reaching his potential.

Go Giants!!!

by Martin BiasedGiantsFanatic on Mar 28, 2006 3:15 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I like...
How you say other pitcher's W/9 IP is inflated by Bonds.
Dave "Stinky" Flemming

by WalrusMan on Mar 28, 2006 3:47 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Jottings
I would just said "you can't go wrong, he's Mr. Wright."

Really, how can you argue with that impeccable logic?  Right?  Right?

by Skaldheim on Mar 28, 2006 4:37 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Jottings
Martin, I'm not sure if that's the funkiest spin job I've ever seen or if Jamie Wright is about to become a local cult hero. But keep up the good work.

In defense of optimism re. Wright: if he keeps the nasty movement but gets more confidence to throw strikes with it -- and just generally becomes a smarter pitcher at the age of 30, which wouldn't be unprecedented (Schilling, Moyer, Schmidt, etc) -- the Giants may win the lottery.

by leftymalo on Mar 28, 2006 4:45 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Jottings
What scares you more, the thought of Benitez coming in with a one run lead and promptly walking the lead-off man, or having Worrell/Walker/Pitcher X come in with a one run lead and promptly walkinh the lead-off man? Frankly, I like going with Meltdown(Walker) in the event of Benitez' spontaneous combustion. With Meltdown, you're always impressed when he is able to close a save and when he blows it, you can admire the distance and speed of the opponent's walk-off moon shot.

by MeSoKrabby on Mar 28, 2006 3:45 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Answer...
What would scare me the most would be owning an all-you-can-eat diner and have Benitez walk in accompanied by TrimSpa Alfonso.  Benitz + Alfonso= spanish for chapter 11.
Johnny Twobags doesn't have the blues and it makes him sad, brings him down...but not down enough to have the blues.

by kenshin1 on Mar 28, 2006 4:01 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

re
it's a funny quirk of Spanish that you pronounce it just like "Lee - von "
Ignorant and stubborn do a great job of impersonating stupid.

by irwin on Mar 28, 2006 4:16 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Jottings
i think it is a little crazy to think that the Giants infield defense is going to help Wright- Feliz is an above average defender, Vizquel is tremendously effecient when balls are at him, however his lack of range and arm strength limit him somewhat, Durham has the 2nd most errors at second base in the Maror Leagues since 2000, and finally Niekro is a clown.

by mccormick22 on Mar 28, 2006 7:33 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Jottings
yeah. so what to do...trade straight across to the Korean Team...no shit.  so long cha cha bowls, hellooo kim-chi

u catch those doods' arm, glove and foot work?

I haven't seen that kind of infield entertainment since Billy D William's -- Bingo Long's Traveling All-Stars and Motor Kings  

i porked my username, but wtfgas anyway?

by E Ticket on Mar 28, 2006 7:43 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

One point to be worried...
Jamey Wright only has 9 innings in spring.  His longest start was 4 innings, today.  I'd be surprised if he's gonna get past the 5th 6th very much the first few starts.
Dave "Stinky" Flemming

by WalrusMan on Mar 28, 2006 9:16 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: One point to be worried...
I've been thinking the same thing. You're leaving out one start vs. Team USA that isn't included in the stats, but that was only a couple of innings anyway. I was really surprised he didn't go at least 5 today, but with all the baserunners he allowed (8), he may have thrown a ton of pitches.
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f***ing amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK

by Josh from Hollywood on Mar 28, 2006 9:55 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: One point to be worried...
Don't know what it missed, was from CBS I believe because the official website doesn't have pitching stats.
Dave "Stinky" Flemming

by WalrusMan on Mar 28, 2006 10:02 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: One point to be worried...
The Team USA game stats weren't counted anywhere.

Also, I saw Draper reported that Wright threw 80 pitches today, and that was on 3 days rest, so he's probably ready to go at least 90 in his 1st real start -- that should get him through 5 or 6.

"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f***ing amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK

by Josh from Hollywood on Mar 28, 2006 10:21 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: One point to be worried...
Wright should pitch Sunday as well, I suppose. I'd feel better if he went six innings then.
"Robb Nen is going to get you" - Benito Santiago to Chipper Jones, 10/7/02

by Pants Man on Mar 29, 2006 12:31 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: One point to be worried...
He's pitched 13 innings this spring according to the Giants website.  He also pitched 2 1/3 innings against Team USA.  So he's pitched 15 1/3, which is only a shade less than Cain (18 2/3), Lowry (18), and Schmidt (18) have thrown.

Also, Wright may have also pitched at the minor league camp.

Hi Mrs. Taschner!

by Fog City Blues on Mar 28, 2006 10:09 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Jottings
The only good news I see with Wright being our #5 starter at the beginning of the season is that Hennessey now has longer to prepare for his first ML start of the season, the first week of May, after Wright puts up Coors-worthy stats in April. I'm with Grant; picking him up was a prudent move, but at this point I'd start Correia #5 and keep Wright busy in Fresno getting acclimated to sea level. Martin, I think this is where I quote Mark Twain: there are 3 levels of prevarication: Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics.

by Lyle on Mar 29, 2006 6:20 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

A reminder....
Disagreement is beautiful...

Personal attacks get bounced...

Bouncing comments gives me cheap thrills...

I've been on the cheap thrills wagon for years now, and I'd hate to fall off...

So, please, no name-calling.

by Grant on Mar 29, 2006 9:51 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: A reminder....
Who are you....a poet now?
Dave "Stinky" Flemming

by WalrusMan on Mar 29, 2006 10:43 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Anyone remember the old, moderated...
...days of the sfgiants.com board?  When the moderator was intelligent, fair, participated in threads... and then brought down the all-consuming hellfire whenever someone used the word "Nazi"?
"When I think of how many times the Enemy has tried to kill Gary Busey..."

by multiphasic on Mar 29, 2006 12:18 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: A reminder....
heh.

what else is there to do till the season starts other than flame each other.

its been raining too much for too long...bring on kruk and kuip, and bonds.  and FELIPE

I miss the smell of napalm in the morning after another one his brilliant pitching changes.

and to whoever it was: Its "Mr." Jaggof to you

i porked my username, but wtfgas anyway?

by E Ticket on Mar 29, 2006 8:40 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: A reminder....
Grant, was this in response to what I posted?? I was trying to point out the fallibility of statistics - did that come across as name calling? It certainly wasn't intended as such. My apologies to Martin, you, and/or anyone else who might have misunderstood.

by Lyle on Mar 30, 2006 5:50 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: A reminder....
No no. I'm not that thin-skinned. The offending posts, where a couple of regulars had too much to drink and started swinging over something they don't even remember now, have been deleted. Yours are safe...for now.

by Grant on Mar 30, 2006 9:06 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Though...
...your post might get deleted for attributing a Benjamin Disraeli saying to Mark Twain.

(Kidding....)

by Grant on Mar 30, 2006 9:08 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Jottings
At the start of Spring Training my biggest concerns were:

1 - Bonds' health
2 - Schmidt's health
3 - Benitez's health
4 - Hennessey's competence as a fifth starter
5 - Niekro's competence as an everyday first baseman.

At the end of Spring Training my biggest concerns are:

1 - Bonds' health
2 - Benitez's health
3 - Wright's competence as a fifth starter
4 - Niekro's competence as an everyday first baseman
5 - Schmidt's health.

I feel sooo much better. Actually, about Schmidt's health I do feel much better. Is the glass 20% full?

by Sayhey on Mar 29, 2006 3:54 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Jottings
Panic free time allotted to Barry Bonds: 1 long run to the gap.
Panic free time allotted to F. Alou: 1 hook of M. Cain in the 4th with the lead. Or 1 unintelligible pre-game interview.  Whichever comes first.
Panic-free time allotted to M. Alou: 1 trip to the men's room.  
Panic-free time allotted to P. Feliz: 1 swing-through at first-pitch high heat.
My panic-free time allotted to A. Benitez: 1 week of the clubhouse buffets.    

by ilykeitlykedat on Mar 29, 2006 4:20 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

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