FanPost

Matt Cain Is Probably Not A Good Pitcher Anymore

The author sincerely hopes he’s wrong about all of this.

The Giants owe Matt Cain a lot. For years, he turned out good performances for the club while amassing none of the win totals or accolades that would normally go along with them. From 2009 to 2011, he had an ERA right around 3.00 and still struggled to break a .500 winning percentage.

Cain was an all-star in 2009 and 2011, but it wasn’t until the 2012 season that he was rewarded for his efforts, both on and off the field. He got another all-star nod, set a career best with 16 wins and a sterling 2.79 ERA, and received a 5 year, $112.5 million contract for his efforts. Between 2009 and 2012, Cain had an ERA of 2.93 and averaged just over 11 wins per year. That he was a valuable front-line starter during this period is undeniable.

Unfortunately, that player and the skill set that went with him are no longer here. In his first full 7 seasons, Cain routinely made 32-34 starts, had no injury concerns and was extremely effective. Since his great 2012 year, he’s battled injuries and ineffectiveness, averaging just four wins per year to go along with his $20 million annual salary.

Given the loyalty of the San Francisco Giants front office and fan base, it’s easy to see why they’re okay with overpaying a player who was our affordable workhorse for years. After all, it is the Giants way to overpay veterans for past performance or offer contracts to players that are clearly done (see Aubrey Huff, Jake Peavy & Tim Lincecum). However, what we’re seeing now is just a shadow of the Cain we once knew and he’s probably not going to be the same again.

Cain Spring Training Performance

Spring Training is Spring Training, but it’s hard to see the light at the end of the tunnel for a pitcher who lives up in the strike zone and seems to have lost both command and velocity. Cain has been absolutely lit up on the preseason circuit, and it’s easy to see why. He’s missing location badly and his fastball, at 86-87 MPH, resembles more of a heater from a high school star than a serviceable major league starter.

Cain has always been one of the better pitchers in the league when it comes to working up in the strike zone with his fastball, elevating the hitter’s eye level and working the rest of his repertoire from there. That will not work at 87 MPH like it did at 91 MPH, even if he mixes in the curveball he seems to be dusting off.

As the saying goes, the hitters will let you know when your stuff isn’t there anymore and Cain is getting that signal repeatedly and emphatically.

The sad truth of the matter is that Cain either figures it out or he’s a $20 million reliever, or worse yet, a perpetually "injured" pitcher toiling between the disabled list and minor league rehab starts. Unfortunately, the Giants may not have the roster room and flexibility to absorb a less-than-mediocre season from Cain. With questions looming in the outfield and the utility infield position, roster flexibility will be key for the club. Keeping Cain on the roster and hoping he puts it together may be a luxury the Giants cannot afford.

Blach, Cain & The Other Guys

Early in Spring Training, it appeared as if Ty Blach was making a stronger claim to the fifth spot with each outing, especially those in which he came into the game right after Cain. That performance has since tapered off for Blach, though Cain hasn’t exactly taken advantage of it.

In addition to Blach, Cain will also have other competition for a role on the staff. Waiting in the wings is emerging starting pitcher Tyler Beede. Beede had a nice year at AA Richmond, posting a 2.81 ERA while striking out nearly a batter per inning over 24 starts. He’ll likely start the year in AAA Sacramento and if he can replicate his success and improve on his control, his stuff indicates that he’s a pitcher the Giants will give a serious look as a starter. The front office likely wants to see a full year out of Beede in AAA, but injuries or necessity could bring him to the big leagues before a September call-up, especially if Cain and Blach falter.

If Cain can’t manage to crack the starting rotation, he could also see competition for the long relief role, though he would likely get more latitude there. In addition to Tyler Beede, pitchers Clayton Blackburn and Albert Suarez are viable options for long relief and spot starting.

One important factor in this equation is that the Giants play the Dodgers 10 times in the first two months of the season. Since the Dodgers lineup doesn’t perform well against lefties, that’s definitely a mark in favor of Blach, especially after beating them in a crucial game late in the season last year.

Another concern is that Giants GM, Bobby Evans, has talked about "adding deception" to Cain’s delivery recently. That’s a pretty big sign that the Giants may be tempering their enthusiasm over Cain’s return to form as well. You don’t generally fidget with the mechanics and delivery of an established veteran in the middle of Spring Training, particularly when he’s competing for a starting role in the rotation.

Possible Scenarios

In spite of the gloom over Cain’s decline, there is a potential silver lining for Giants fans. It is possible that he’s still recovering from injuries, returning to form, or just working out the kinks. He had bone spurs removed from his throwing arm in 2014 and had a cyst removed prior to last season. Between his back, hamstring, elbow, and forearm, Cain has been on the DL six times since 2015. That timeframe in which those injuries occurred definitely aligns with his lack of production.

He could be dealing with lingering issues from those ailments while building arm strength back up and trying to find his release point again. It requires rose-colored glasses to see it this way, but it is a possible scenario.

A more realistic view is that this is a natural decline and Cain won’t return to the pitcher we once knew. He will turn 33 this season and there is very little in his recent history that indicates a return to form. While his strikeout numbers have remained consistent, the other stats point to a pitcher that is losing his effectiveness. In his past 150 innings, Cain has surrendered a whopping 28 homers along with a noticeable increase in hits, walks, and WHIP.

It appears, at least in recent outings, that Cain has resigned himself to becoming more of a finesse pitcher. His command did look a little better in his last start and he was mixing in curveballs and change-ups liberally and with some success.

A softer tossing, slightly junk-balling Cain may be his best route to staying in the rotation since the Giants would likely be content with 180 innings and an ERA around 4.00 from him. His fastball, however, continues to be a problem. Even when he did hit location with it in his last outing, the Rockies lineup (minus Nolan Arenado) didn’t seem to have a problem squaring it up and making good contact.

The Giants are notoriously loyal and that will likely net a few regular season starts for Cain, even if he continues to struggle in the Spring. Barring a surprising rebound, however, Cain will end up yielding the fifth spot to Blach, Suarez, or Beede and become the highest paid long man in the game. If he can’t perform in that role, you’ll probably see more of Cain on the disabled list than you will on the mound over the next two years.

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