Baseball Prospectus released their PECOTA standings today, the sum of their 2017 projections. They’re supposed to make the postseason again, squeaking into another Wild Card Game, this time against the Washington Nationals. There are worse fates. Better to be one of the teams projected to have one of the five-best records in the National League than one of the teams projected to have one of the 10 worst. That’s my motto, alright.
The Dodgers project a little better, of course. They usually do. Let me take a big sip of coffee and see how much better ...
Dodgers, 98-64
Giants, 86-76
Good gravy. Projection systems are generally tempered, which is how the Giants being projected for 86 wins is actually a good thing. That means the Dodgers are melting the algorithm. They’re five games better than the next best team, and they’re eight games better than the Cubs. That is ... substantial.
At least the FanGraphs projections will save us.
Dodgers, 95-67
Giants, 87-75
Well, pfft. What do they know? The FanGraphs projections totally screwed up the NL last year.
NL Wild Card: Mets at Giants
NLDS 1: Nationals at Dodgers
NLDS 2: Mets/Giants at Cubs
Lucky guess! But, fine, maybe we should pay more attention to these projections. Where is the difference, according to Baseball Prospectus?
2017 Giants and Dodgers WARP projections
Position | Giants | Dodgers |
---|---|---|
Position | Giants | Dodgers |
C | 8.2 | 7 |
1B | 3.3 | 2.2 |
2B | 2.3 | 2.2 |
SS | 2.3 | 4.3 |
3B | -0.2 | 3 |
LF | 2.3 | 2 |
CF | 1.8 | 2.7 |
RF | 2.6 | 3.2 |
SP1 | 3.5 | 5.1 |
SP2 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
SP3 | 1.8 | 2.1 |
SP4 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
SP5 | 0.3 | 1 |
Bullpen | 2.2 | 3 |
Total | 33.8 | 41.5 |
The little differences add up. Clayton Kershaw being that much better than Madison Bumgarner. Corey Seager being that much better than Brandon Crawford. Joc Pederson being that much better than Denard Span. It’s not like the projections are that unfair to the Giants, either, giving Matt Cain a decent chance of success, and projecting the Mac Williamson/Jarrett Parker solution to be worthwhile.
That doesn’t mean there aren’t projections to quibble with, though. I’ll take the over on Johnny Cueto, Brandon Crawford, and Eduardo Nuñez, substantially so in the case of the latter. Still, the computers have spoken, and they’re confirming what we already knew: The Dodgers are better on paper. You can slap Ryan Braun or J.D. Martinez onto the Giants’ roster, and it would still be true.
Luckily the game isn’t played on paper! It’s played on dirt, which is what will be left after this planet successfully fights off the infection that is humanity, and funny things can happen on dirt. The Giants can still surprise. Projections can still be wrong.
I, for one, would be in favor of the Giants winning the NL West for the first time since 2012, but if you listen to the computers, that’s not going to be this year. It would take an awful lot for the Giants to make up those 12 projected wins. You heard something similar last year, and it turned out to be right. Here’s hoping the Giants give PECOTA a swirlie this time.