I don’t want to ruffle any feathers here, but it’s possible that Giants fandom is a little more pessimistic about Jeff Samardzija’s contract than we were a couple of months ago. And at the risk of being even more preciously out on this limb, the biggest worry about him is the number of home runs he’s allowed. If you need some time to digest all this new and complex information, please watch this video of a baby sea otter as many times as necessary.
Back? No? Oh well, I knew the risks going into that. I’ve had a good run.
In case YouTube ever goes down, though, I will finish the article. Samardzija spent the first two months of the season cruising, with just a couple of starts sprinkled in over his first 10 that wouldn’t be characterized as at least pretty good. Then he, as have so many pitchers before him this year, ran into the buzzsaw that is the Atlanta Braves. Not to place too much blame on the coaching staff, but in that game Samardzija was ordered to intentionally walk AJ Pierzynski, who at the time was hitting .210/.241/.257. If you were Jeff Samardzija, wouldn’t you be wondering if Bruce Bochy was hinting you should retire? I know I would. Anyway, after the 1-out intentional walk, Samardzija struck out the Braves pitcher, but then gave up a three run triple to Mallex Smith, and he’s never been the same since.
Is it overly reductive to assume that all of Samardzija’s problems stem from being told to intentionally walk Pierzynski? Probably. On the other hand, come on. So, lotta ins, lotta outs, lotta what-have-yous.
Samardzija’s problems this year have come in two months: June and July. His problems, though, have been different in each month. In June, his walk rate was great, but he struck guys out at a rueterian rate and, of course, decided to do some experimentation with giving up home runs. You’re not in college anymore, Jeff. Cut that shit out. In July, though, his strikeout rate has bounced back to a much more typical level (which is still lower than his career average, though he’s been lower than his career average all year), but he’s still giving up a fair number of homers, and he’s decided to mix things up by starting to walk people.
Let’s focus on the home runs for now, though. What started going wrong in June that had been fine before? If only there were some kind of site where you could go to check on that sort of OH WAIT.
This is a chart that shows ISO, or the difference in SLG and AVG for every pitch. In June, hitters were just smacking the ball around, no matter what he threw. While some of the pitches are more worrisome than others – he barely threw the changeup and splitter, and in July the slider and cutter haven’t been real problems – the two fastballs, the fourseam and sinker, have been trending in the wrong direction, and in the case of the fourseam, the extremely wrong direction.
In May, Samardzija’s fourseam was a great pitch. Hitters hit just .083 against it with 0 extra base hits. Then, he decided to go another way with it. In June, opponents hit .296 against it and slugged .704, and so far in July, they’re hitting .571 and slugging 1.429. The pitch has been catastrophic. The sinker, meanwhile, has been a little more consistent, with guys hitting around .300-.340 around it all year and slugging in the .450-.550 range.
The problem with these pitches isn’t velocity. After a little lull in April, they’ve each picked up some velocity and maintained it as the year’s gone on. You might think the problem is that his movement is trending the wrong way, and that’s not untrue, but the fourseam fastball isn’t any different than it’s been all year, and his other pitches aren’t the problem. His release point, interestingly, has been a little inconsistent this year, though he and Righetti seem to have fixed that, but it seems like the real problem with the fourseam fastball has been its location.
Well located fastballs are generally either at the knees or at the letters; getting too close to the middle of the strike zone is a recipe for disaster. Well, Chef Jeff is cookin’, and the results are not pretty:
Look at the progression of the fourseam fastball. Watch as, for the first two months, it’s living up, well above the hitting area, but as the year’s gone on, it’s dropped until it’s generally right at the belt. Look at how well that tracks with the above graph, too, where for the first two months it was a very effective pitch, and it’s started to nosedive right along with its location. Look at the cutter, too, which in June was an ineffective pitch because it was too close to the belt, but has been good in July since he’s been throwing it away from that location.
Over the last couple of months, Jeff Samardzija’s fouseam fastball, which works best up in the zone or up above the zone, has been too low for it to be a major league caliber pitch. It is therefore my opinion that he should throw it higher more often, and thus return to being a good pitcher. Thank you for your time.