Back in 2012, the Giants needed a second baseman. Freddy Sanchez was hurt and Emmanuel Burriss and Ryan Theriot were, wait for it, not hitting that well. Everyone knew the Giants needed a second baseman. Everyone knew they were going to get one.
Not a problem! They traded for one. There were plenty available, from Hanley Ramirez to Omar Infante, and not a lot of competition. They were able to snatch a perfectly competent Marco Scutaro from a division rival, giving up a prospect out of their top 20 because the competition was so mellow. It’s nice when a plan works out.
This is not going to happen this year. The Giants need a reliever. Everyone knows that the Giants will trade for a reliever. The difference this time, though, is that every single freaking team with postseason hopes would also like a reliever. The Giants are, to use a technical term, hosed.
This comes up now because Ken Rosenthal just suggested that the Indians are targeting the pitcher who would improve the Giants the most:
Gimenez is favorite of #Indians’ pitchers, and has connected with Bauer. Team’s No. 1 need is LHR, and #Yankees’ Miller probably top target.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 18, 2016
Also interested in Andrew Miller: everyone. Literally every professional baseball team in the world. Don’t worry about the logistics of him going to the Hiroshima Carp. All things being equal, they would accept an offer to have Miller work for them.
Of the 29 teams with a legal, established method of acquiring Miller, 29 would want him if the Yankees are just giving him away. Of those, about 15 of them would give up very, very, very good prospects to secure his services. The Giants are elbowing for room at the table, but they’re probably going to get bounced before they can even order a drink.
The best way to explain the Giants’ problem is to pretend that Marco Scutaro is active, on the Rockies, and 34. He’s available to a good home, and the cost wouldn’t be prohibitive. Sounds great, except the Astros wouldn’t care. They have Jose Altuve. The Giants wouldn’t be interested in a starting second baseman because Joe Panik is coming back. The Cubs might not find a place on their bench for an alternate-reality Scutaro, much less a starting spot. It would be the Royals fighting with the Cardinals, give or take, and fighting is probably too strong of a term.
You can call this the There Aren’t Any Rumors About Scooter Gennett For A Reason Theorem. The supply is ample. The demand is legitimate, but muted.
In contrast, here are the pitchers who might be replaced if their team trades for a reliever:
- Marlins - Nick Wittgren
- Mets - Seth Lugo
- Nationals - Oliver Perez
- Cubs - Spencer Patton
- Pirates - Juan Nicasio
- Cardinals - Matt Bowman
- Dodgers - Chris Hatcher
- Giants - Andrew Suarez
- Orioles - Donnie Hart
- Red Sox - Tommy Layne
- Blue Jays - Bo Schultz
- White Sox - Michael Ynoa
- Indians - Joseph Colon
- Tigers - Dustin Molleken
- Royals - Dillon Gee
- Astros - Chris Devenski
- Mariners - Tom Wilhelmsen
- Rangers - Alex Claudio
The exact name might vary, but that’s an important list of players you’ve mostly never heard of. There are 30 teams that would improve with an impact reliever, and 18 of them might be actively looking. Most of them have more prospects to trade than the Giants.
The good news, if there is any, is that the preponderance of bullpen spots that makes this true also serves to increase the pool of potential trade targets. As in, the Rays don’t just have a reliever to trade; they might have seven, in theory. So there should be pitchers out there.
There just aren’t that many who will pass the Hunter Strickland Test. That is, relievers who have been better than Strickland has been this year. As long as we’re doing bullet points, let’s guess at how many relievers would absolutely represent an upgrade over the Giants’ seventh-, eighth-, and ninth-inning options:
- Aroldis Chapman
- Andrew Miller
- Dellin Betances
- Alex Colome
- Ryan Madson
- Ryan Dull
- Will Smith
- Arodys Vizcaino (DL)
- Hector Neris
- Tyler Clippard
- Daniel Hudson
Maybe add in Huston Street and/or Joe Smith if you’re still a believer, but you get the point. Some of those up there are stretches. Some of them, like Dull and Betances, probably aren’t even available because they’re young and cheap. And because I’m a moron, I’ve almost certainly missed a couple. Still, that’s close to the full list of pitchers I might trust more than Hunter Strickland, Derek Law, and Sergio Romo in the eighth inning. That’s 18 teams looking for impact relief help and maybe — maaaaaaybe — 11 relievers who qualify.
The rest of the market is filled with pitchers like Jeanmar Gomez, who is basically George Kontos with a better title on his business card. Nice pitchers to have if your bullpen is an utter disaster, but that doesn’t describe the Giants. They have a plethora of relievers who are just erratic enough to distrust, with seven guys with an ERA roughly between 3.00 and 4.00. They don’t need the next George Kontos; they need the obvious upgrade.
[looks at list of interested teams]
[looks at list of impact relievers]
[looks at list of interested teams again]
[looks at list of impact relievers again]
[looks at list of interested teams again]
[looks at list of impact relievers again]
It’s not going to happen, at least for someone like Miller. Every other team would have to get hit by a reverse bullpen meteor.
This is why the Giants will almost certainly trade for someone unexciting, like Gomez or Fernando Abad. They won’t do it just to make a move, but it will be a trade that threads the fine line between industrious and pointless. It’ll be like "Eleanor Rigby," except about bullpens instead of dead people.
That’s why I’m switching my secret hope to overpaying for Alex Colome, who will at least be very inexpensive for several years. The Miller dreams are dead. The Chapman dreams are icky. If you want a reliever to pass the Hunter Strickland Test, there are just a few out there, and every single team will want one.
Good luck, and don't expect anything.