I'll start out by saying that on a purely value and risk/reward basis, I think the Giants did a much better job of drafting in rounds 11 through 40 than they did in rounds 1 through 10. I won't repeat my overview of the entire draft from my previous draft review fanpost for the first 14 rounds (LINK for those who missed it: http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2014/6/26/5842710/2014-giants-draft-review-first-14-rounds) in this fanpost, but I will reiterate that my preliminary grade of a "fringe C" remains intact. Although I do see a strong likelihood that I'm heading for a C- overall grade once all the picks are wrapped up in exactly 2 weeks.
Before I get into the detailed individual pick analyses, let me talk a bit about the current state of progress the Giants have made in signing draft picks. The Giants have been unusually slow to sign the vast majority of their top draft picks so far. I believe this is due to the fact that they couldn't really negotiate a contract with their #1 pick, Tyler Beede, until June 26th - the day after Beede and his college teammates finished up winning the College World Series championship over Virginia. I'm sure that the Giants are planning on offering several of their high-upside high school and college draftees above slot bonuses to sign before the deadline, but they're likely being forced to wait to make their best offers until after they sign Beede to his deal. It's not that I think Beede will hold out and demand significant $$$ over his $2.6132M slot value, but the Giants have to be cautious just in case he does and the amount ends up being so much that the Giants would have to scale back their bonus offers to other draftees. I'm fairly certain that the Giants entered the draft with a good indication from Beede and/or his shadow reps that he would be willing to sign for close to the Giants allotted slot at #14 overall. My prediction is that Beede will eventually sign for something between $2.65M and $2.7M, with Aramis Garcia, Dylan Davis and Austin Slater signing very quickly afterwards for right around their allotted slot values. Beede has been back home in Massachusetts since Monday (June 30th), so we weren't blessed with a lightning-quick negotiation scenario following his days-long celebration with friends and classmates back at Vandy.
Looking outside of the top 3 rounds, I do think the Giants will end up signing all of their top 10 picks (with Stetson Woods being the most likely not to sign). I also predict that they'll sign at least 15 of the 20 prospects they drafted between rounds 11 and 30 (in point of fact, they've already signed 8 of them). Finally, I predict that they'll end up signing at least 1 of the following 4 tough-sign, post-24th round draftees to a well above $100K bonus ($200K-$450K): Byron Murray, Hunter Cole, Hunter Williams, or Tim Susnara.
Now on with the prospects - and I'll even throw in my analysis of two guys drafted outside of the 28th round: Jared Deacon and Tim Susnara. Please note that the 3 numbers inside the brackets at the end of the first line for each draftee correspond to where he was ranked pre-draft by Baseball America (BA), mlb.com, and Scout.com (Kiley McDaniel), respectively. BA's list went 500 deep, mlb's went 200 deep, and McDaniel's went 291 deep, so if there's no number listed in those spots for a particular draftee that means he didn't make it on those lists.
15.448 Moss, Benton: RHP, Univ. North Carolina (6’2", 175) DOB=1993/02/21 (DDA=21.104) [365; ; ]
Moss was a very good value pick here, but I highly doubt the Giants have the cash left under their bonus pool cap to sign him. Moss loves the college atmosphere at UNC, has a strong tie to the school, and reportedly wants to get the Tar Heels back to the postseason CWS chase before he leaves for the pros. Not only that, but he has an academic scholarship to UNC, not the typical partial baseball scholarship, and puts a lot of stock in getting his degree. Admittedly, I thought the same thing about Christian Jones, the Univ. of Oregon LHP who was drafted in a similar spot as Moss last year, and the Giants did sign him. The difference was that last year the Giants saved a big chunk of $$$ under their cap after signing all of their first 10 round picks and this year I don't see how they can save more than a few thousand $$$ in the first 10 rounds - unless Dylan Davis or Aramis Garcia accept a deal for a lot less money than I believe they'll get. Moss was a well-regarded prospect coming out of high school in 2011. Moss typically throws his fastball in the 89-91 mph range, and sometimes touch 94. It doesn’t have a lot of movement, but he makes up for that by throwing from a good downhill angle. He also throws a curveball, changeup and slider. He has above average control of his pitches for a college starter, but his command will need to improve greatly in the pros if he wants his less than overpowering stuff to allow him to remain a starting pitcher. He does appear to have the ability to add more mass and strength to his frame in the coming 2-3 years.
'12: G=17, GS=16, IP=79, K=83 (9.5/9), BB=23 (2.6/9), K/BB=3.6, H=65 (7.4/9), WHIP=1.11, ERA=1.94
'13: G=19, GS=16, IP=88.1, K=92 (9.4/9), BB=34 (3.5/9), K/BB=2.7, H=79 (8/9), WHIP=1.28, BAA=.239, BABIP=.310
'14: G=16, GS=15, IP=97, K=77 (7.1/9), BB=35 (3.3/9), K/BB=2.2, H=77 (7.1/9), WHIP=1.15, ERA=3.62
16.478 Ginkel, Kevin: RHP, Southwestern College (JuCo), CAL (6’4", 210) DOB=1994/03/24 (DDA=20.073) [; ; ]
UPDATE: According to his twitter account, Ginkel signed in mid-June. He hasn't been placed on any roster yet, surely got less than $100K (no bonus pool hit).
Ginkel just finished his freshman season of college eligibility, so he's a full year younger than the typical junior class college draftee. I'm not sure what happened to him that caused him sit out the 2013 college, but he did graduate from HS in June of 2012. The Giants have some pretty good raw materials to work with in Ginkel. His FB was clocked touching the low-90s in most of his games during conference play and it looks to me that he still has some room to add
strength and size to his frame. He really came on strong during the 2nD half of the 2014 college season - earning himself a baseball scholarship offer form UC San Diego. In his last 7 starts of the season. Ginkel was 5-1 and averaged just over 7 innings per start, while dropping his ERA more than a full run (down to 1.62) and raising his K/9 ratio from 5.9 to 7.4. If the Giant pitching gurus can coach him up he might show us some surprising velocity and/or performance gains in the coming 2-4 seasons. Definitely looks like a good sleeper candidate to me. As you can see from the vid clip below, Ginkel had an exaggerated leg kick and made an unusual motion with his wrist at release back in 2012 when he had just finished his HS career. I wonder if he's changed that drastically over the last 2 years?
Univ. San Diego commit.
'14: G=14, GS=13, IP=88, K=58 (5.9/9), BB=18 (1.8/9), K/BB=3.2, H=86 (8.8/9), WHIP=1.18, BAA=.260, ERA=2.76
VID1: Summer 2012 - vid for college scouts: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_eyg5hfguU8
17.508 Smith, Caleb: LHP, USC - Aiken (6’2", 205) DOB=1992/10/04 (DDA=21.244) [426; ; ]
UPDATE: According to his twitter account, Smith signed in mid-June. He hasn't been placed on any roster yet, surely got less than $100K (no bonus pool hit).
Smith wasn't drafted out of HS in 2011 and he ended up accepting a scholarship offer to play for Div. 1 regional baseball powerhouse, Coastal Carolina University. He wasn't going to get many appearances as a freshman, so the coaches decided to redshirth him during the 2012 college season. Smith eventually became disgruntled with his lack of opportunities and gave up his scholarship to transfer back to his hometown college, USC - Aiken, which is a small Div. III baseball program. He pitched solely out of the pen in 2013 (his redshirt freshman season) and often showed electric swing-and-miss stuff in those short outings (K/9=13.9; BAA=.179). The 2014 college season was pretty much a carbon copy of 2013 statwise (K/9=12.2; BAA=.156), although Smith did make 4 starts and was stretched out more than he was as a freshman. Smith does have big control issue, but the Giants got really good value here with a lefty that has an electric FB from the LH side who could easily blossom into a closer or setup guy in the majors within the next 3-5 years. In looking at Smith's compilation vid clip from the 2013 season (below), I see a pitcher with a mechanically sound and repeatable delivery. He's got well above average arm speed and he's quick and athletic on the mound. I would like to see him soften up his lead leg upon landing and to come to more of a squared-off position with his legs and upper body once he completes his delivery, but those are minor issues.
TRIVIA: Like 2 other pitchers in the Giants farm system (Kyle Crick and Mike Kickham), Smith has a twin brother (Grayson & Caleb were teammates on the USC - Aiken baseball squad this spring).
'13: G=25, IP=24.2, K=38 (13.9/9), BB=18 (6.6/9), K/BB=2.1, H=15 (5.5/9), WHIP=1.34, BAA=.179
'14: G=17, GS=4, IP=26.2, K=36 (12.2/9), BB=28 (9.5/9), K/BB=1.3, H=14 (4.7/9), WHIP=1.58, BAA=.156
VID1: 3 live games from 2013 season: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MrKtX2x1KhY
18.538 Agosto, Edrick: RHP, Inter. Baseball Academy, Puerto Rico (6’3", 240) DOB=1996/11/28 (DDA=17.189) [; ; ]
Agosto has been reported to be reaching the low-90s consitently with his FB in short stints this spring. Looks like he’s been playing in international baseball tournaments since he was 10 years old. Agosto is a big guy – always has been according to the old stats and pictures I've seen of him from years back. In the first 3 video clips below you can see him from October of 2012 – when he was still only 15 years old - and he was very big even back then. He looks to me to have above average athleticism (the guy can hit and field) despite his excess girth, but he'll have to drop some of that baby fat and get in better shape if he wants to be considered for a starting pitcher role with the Giants in the future. If he had grown up in the States he would have been a 300+ pound defensive/offensive lineman in high school. Agosto was playing in the annual Vero Beach Classic tournament the same weekend that he got drafted by the Giants. His travel team is called the International Baseball Academy HS and I assume that it consists mainly of players that attend the IBA in Puerto Rico. Agosto started their game on Saturday, gave up no runs, but only pitched into the 2nd inning. Here's an eyewitness report of his outing:
"Holman Stadium opens up her gates for Day 3 of the VBC as the Scorpions Prime were set to host IBAHS in the 18U division. A day removed from being drafted by the giants #538 overall Edrick Agosto took the mound for an (0-3) IBAHS squad. After walking three of the first four hitters of the game Agosto would be pitching from the stretch early. Yet, the SF Giants draft pick was able to get out of the jam unharmed on the scoreboard but would be pulled in the second for reliever Gillermo Faget."
UPDATE: Kiley McDaniel of scout.com also saw Agosto at the PG National showcase in Fort Meyers, and wrote this blurb:
"Agosto is the easier to evaluate, as he is a 6'2/275 righty that sat 88-90 with an average-ish three pitch mix that's hit 93 mph in the past and more Rich Garces comps than you can shake a stick at."
Florida JuCo commit.
VID1: Pitching - Oct. 2012 - Puerto Rico: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J2CtFEJyjzw
VID2: BP - Oct. 2012 - Puerto Rico: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QApwbijOdu4
VID3: IF drills - Oct. 2012 - Puerto Rico: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IyTJ1SUyBGU
VID4: 60 yrd dash - Oct. 2012 - Puerto Rico: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLreHxzpZnA
19.568 Amion, Richard: CF, RHH, Alabama State Univ. (5’10", 190) DOB=1993/02/24 (DDA=21.101) [; ; ]
UPDATE: Amion signed for less than $100K (no bonus pool hit), and has made his pro debut for Scottsdale.
Amion really put it all together this past college season at the plate. He posted major gains in all 4 categories of his offensive slash line (finishing at .335/.459/,469/.928) - and his statistical improvement in batting average and slugging from 2013 were especially impressive. He has always been a toolsy and athletic, fast-twitch prospect since way back before his senior year in HS, but the questions on him were always whether or not he could ever make enough contact at the plate and add enough strength to his skinny frame to allow those tools to shine consistently on the field in game situations. He's put on 30 pounds of mass and muscle since he graduated from HS, which seems to answer the 2nd part of that question (along with his .134 isoP number in 2014). Amion has plus speed (timed as low as 6.65 in the 60), and he fully utilizes that speed to play plus defense in CF, to go with a fringe-plus arm (over 90 mph on throws from the OF). He has the potential to be at least an average hitter with average power in the future as he continues to gain experience at the plate and add more strength to his frame. This is a real good pick for the Giants at this late stage in the draft, because Amion could blossom into a 4-tool everyday starting CFer. Here's PG.com's scouting report on Amion from way back in June of 2010 when he was only a few months past his 17th birthday:
"Richard Amion is a 2011 OF with a 5-10 160 lb. frame from Cutler Bay, FL who attends Miami Southridge HS. Athletic build, body projects to fill out well, fast-twitch athlete, 6.68 sixty. Shows good raw hitting tools, good strength in swing, quick bat, ball jumps off the bat, will improve with slight adjustments in approach. Outstanding outfield tools, plus range, easy arm actions, plus arm strength, athletic actions. Solid student."
I'll end with a bit of Giants-related trivia. Amion has been a teammate of Waldyvan Estrada for all of his 3 seasons at Alabama State. That's the same Estrada that the Giants drafted out of a Puerto Rico high school in the 50th round of the 2011 draft. Estrada didn't get drafted again 3 weeks ago, so he should be headed back to Alabama for his senior year of college ball in 2015.
’12: .288/.407/.327/.734, BABIP=.352, isoP=.039, AB=153, 2B=6, 3B=0, HR=0, BB=24 (12.1%), K=31 (15.7%), SB=36/42 (86%)
‘13: .269/.405/.353/.758, BABIP=.308, isoP=.084, AB=201, 2B=9, 3B=1, HR=2, BB=32 (12.3%), K=33 (12.7%), SB=34/41 (83%)
’14: .335/.459/,469/.928, BABIP=.387, isoP=.134, AB=206, 2B=14, 3B=4, HR=3, BB=37 (14.3%), K=42 (16.3%), SB=26/35 (74%)
VID1: 6 clips of running, hitting and fielding from 2009 & '10: http://www.perfectgame.org/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=210969
20.598 Underwood, Bret: CF, SWH (throws RH), Northwestern State Univ., LA (6’2", 200) DOB=1992/10/04 (DDA=21.244) [; ; ]
Not at all well-known, Underwood has a well-rounded skill-set with more upside than the typical college junior drafted in the middle of day 3. He has above average speed and more power than your typical speedy CF types. He used that combo to steal 18 bases and hit 6 triples (breaking the school's single season record). He has also shown the ability to hit for good contact rates while displaying a good batting eye at the plate. Finally, he plays fringe-above average defense in CF. His stats for the 2014 college season were not that impressive, but it should be noted that he was playing banged up and fighting through a couple of nagging injuries from the 2nd week of the season through to the end. Not recruited out of HS, Underwood attended little-known Faulkner State CC (near Mobile, Alabama) as a freshman and sophomore. He had a surprisingly good freshman campaign (hitting .346 with 5 HRs & 36 RBI as the starting CF) that had some local scouts sniffing around, but then is mother died of cancer just before the beginning of his sophomore season of ball and that sent him into a mental funk and a long slump - ending up with him being benched pretty much the entire 2nd half of the season. Needless to say, he didn't get drafted that June and he had no scholarship offers from any Division 1 colleges for his junior season. He was able to win a spot in a low-level college-age summer league and proceeded to hit .463 and stole 9 bases while hitting in the #2 spot in the order and starting in CF. A Northwestern State University (Div. 1 college in Louisiana) coach saw him play a few games and they ended up offering him a scholarship for the 2014 baseball season.
‘13 (Red Stick Summer): .463/.524/.667/1.191, isoP=.204, AB=54, 2B=5, 3B=3, HR=0, BB=8 (12.7%), K=6 (9.5%), SB=9/9
’14: .289/.358/.397/.755, BABIP=.339, isoP=.108, AB=204, 2B=10, 3B=6, HR=0, BB=20 (8.3%), K=32 (13.2%), SB=18/18
VID1: Interview - March 2014 - Underwood appears at the 4:40 mark: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBe92OS_mWw
21.628 Crownover, James Matthew "Matt": LHP, Clemson (5’11", 205) DOB=1993/03/05 (DDA=21.092) [; ; 252]
Crownover is a draft-eligible sophomore due to his March 1993 birthdate and not because he redshirted. In fact, despite having just completed his 2nd year of college, he is older than about half of the college junior draft class this year. Crownover did blow out his elbow in the early part of his senior baseball season and ended up having TJ surgery in March of 2012. That kept him from being drafted out of HS in June of 2012, but he had the surgery early enough that he was able to rehab in time to make 14 starts and pitch 70 very effective innings for Clemson as a freshman in 2013. Though he can often touch the low-90s with his FB, Crownover is mainly a finesse pitcher who relies on great location and some dedeption to keep hitters off balance. He's shown fringe-plus command & control through his first 2 seasons at Clemson, allowing him to keep his WHIP and runs allowed very low despite giving up a lot more base hits than a typically successful starter. Crownover is an all around athlete with a solid and sturdy frame, but he's already maxed out his physical projection, so what you see now is what you'll be getting from him in terms of velocity and stamina. The last LHP who was a draft-eligible sophomore that the Giants drafted and signed (Mike Kickham) has turned out fairly well for them so far. However, the Giants drafted Kickham in the 6th round and paid him something like $410K to sign. Crownover will almost certainly be looking to get something in the $400K-$500K range from the Giants to give up his last 2 seasons at Clemson and I highly doubt that the Giants will have enough money left over under the new bonus cap limit rules to offer Crownover much more than $200K - if that. What I'm saying is that I seriiously doubt the Giants will be able to sign Crownover unless Benton Moss, Hunter Cole and all the HS kids that they drafted after round 28 all reject the Giants offers and leave enough on the table for the Giants to make a serious run at Crownover.
'13: G=15, GS=14, IP=70, K=45 (5.8/9), BB=17 (2.2/9), K/BB=2.6, H=64 (8.2/9), WHIP=1.16, BAA=.249, BABIP=.288
'14: G=17, GS=16, IP=99.1, K=90 (8.1/9), BB=20 (1.8/9), K/BB=4.5, H=94 (8.5/9), WHIP=1.15, ERA=2.90
VID1: July 2011 - summer league HS ball: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smdosxco_mQ
VID2: HR derby + warmups - August 2011: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDp6K86kKDg
22.658 Reyes, Mark: LHP, Crowder College (JuCo), MO (6’1", 185) DOB=1992/10/08 (DDA=21.240) [; ; ]
Speaking of Mike Kickham, he pitched for Crowder College as a freshman in 2009, before transferring to Missouri State Univ. (a Div. I college) for the 2010 college season and then signed with the Giants in August of 2010. Reyes's path to the draft and Crowder was markedly different than Kickham's, but they both did end up pitching one full season for Crowder. Reyes isn't throwing his FB close to Kickham's mid-90s max velo from back in the spring and summer of 2010, but he has shown C&C that is lightyears ahead of anything Kickham's ever been able to produce and he is an interesting arm here in the early 20s. That pinpoint control was one of the main reasons that Reyes was able to consistently keep his pitch counts down and throw 6 complete games (out of 13 starts) this spring for Crowder. Reyes just finished his sophomore season of college eligibility. He redshirted the 2013 college season at Crowder College after having Tommy John surgery on his elbow in the fall of 2012. He pitched only sparingly as a freshman at Arkansas in 2012 (6 games, 7.2 innings). Reyes was drafted out of an Arkansas HS in 2011 by the Orioles (46th rd.). He led his team to a state championship in his senior season, including a 17-strikeout performance in the state title game to go along with a 2-run HR. Drafted out of HS in the 46th round of 2011 by Baltimore.
Southern Mississippi commit.
UPDATE: I just found another similar parallel between the Crowder and Kickham situations. Kickham made about 4 starts for the Sedalia Bombers in the MINK (Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska, and Kansas) League - a summer collegiate league - after the Giants drafted him back in June of 2010. Now I've just read that Reyes made his first start for the same Sedalia Bombers on June 25th (5 innings, 5 hits, 1 run, & 5 Ks). The Giants had Tidrow scouting at least 2 of Kickham's starts back then and I'm guessing that he'll be doing the same with Reyes now. The main difference is that the Giants have a full month less to decide whether or not to sign Reyes (this year's deadline is July 18th) than they did Kickham.
'12: G=6, IP=7.2, K=8 (9.4/9), BB=4 (4.7/9), K/BB=2, H=8 (9.4/9), WHIP=1.57, ERA=9.39
'14: GS=13, IP=86, K=81 (8.5/9), BB=10 (1.0/9), K/BB=8.1, H=76 (8.0/9), WHIP=1.00, ERA=2.20
VID1: Bullpen - Oct. 2013 - Crowder fall-ball: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dojE3xYMi-8
23.688 Johnson, Jordan: RHP, Cal State-Northridge (6’2", 175) DOB=1993/09/15 (DDA=20.263) [; ; ]
Johnson just completed his redshirt sophomore season of college ball, so he has 2 more shots at the draft if the Giants don't sign him before July 18th. Frankly, I see no reason for him to sign with the Giants, because, IMO, they're unlikely to offer him much above 5 firgures to sign and he should be able to improve his draft position next June with even just a small amount of improvement over his 2014 season. Johnson was drafted out of his Sacramento area HS (Elk Grove) in the 42nd round of the 2011 draft by the Rockies, He didn't get a solid bonus offer from them, so he headed down to Northridge to play college ball. He got in 3 games out of the bullpen (for 6.2 innings) during the first 3 weeks of what would have been his freshman season of college ball in 2012, but then got hurt and missed the rest of the season. He successfully petitioned the NCAA to redshirt the 2012 season and regain his freshman year of eligibility. He finally went under the knife for an undisclosed operation (I'm going to assume it was TJ surgery on his elbow) during the summer of 2012. He rehabbed successfully and was able to pitch during the spring of 2013 (his redshirt college season), but he was used very sparingly. He finally got in a full season of baseball during this past spring, but produced well below average results despite proving that he was durable enough to remain in the starting rotation for a full season. that he has used up his junior season of eligibility.
Drafted out of HS in the 42nd round of 2011 draft by Colorado.
'12: G=3, GS=1, IP=6.2, K=4 (5.4/9), BB=2 (2.7/9), K/BB=2, H=13 (17.6/9), WHIP=2.25, ERA=14.85
'13: G=2, IP=3.0, K=5 (15/9), BB=1 (3/9), K/BB=5, H=3 (9/9), WHIP=1.33, BAA=.270, BABIP=.492
'13 (Texas Summer): G=11, GS=6, IP=46.1, K=48 (9.3/9), BB=16 (3.1/9), K/BB=3.0, H=44 (8.6/9), WHIP=1.29, ERA=4.47
'14: G=15, GS=12, IP=72.2, K=39 (4.8/9), BB=15 (1.9/9), K/BB=2.6, H=75 (9.3/9), WHIP=1.24, ERA=4.33
24.718 Petersen, Michael: RHP, Riverside CC, CAL (6’7", 195) DOB=1994/05/16 (DDA=20.020) [; ; ]
Petersen attended HS in the Bay Area at St. Francis in Mountain View and he just finished his sophomore season of college eligibility. He's a widely-respected prospect, as the Giants are the third team to draft him in as many years. The Pirates drafted him in the 19th round out of HS, he turned them down and enrolled at West Valley College - a JuCo located in Sarasota (about 13 miles SW of San Jose). The Rangers then drafted him in the 31st round after his freshman season last June. He then transferred to one of the top JuCo baseball programs in the country, Riverside City College (in SoCal) for his sophomore season. I can't find any solid info on what his cuurent stuff and health is like. I do know that he threw his FB up to the 91 mph mark and flashed a promising changeup as a lightly-used reliever during his senior year of HS down in the South Bay. My guess is that he's shown above avearge velocity and flashed an above average changeup when he's been healthy over the last 2 years. Add that to his raw physical athleticism and well above average physical dimensions and projectable frame and you likely get a kid that multiple teams are willing to take a chance on as a mid-round sleeper. Kiley McDaniel, at scout.com, had Perersen ranked as his #36th ranked SoCal draft prospect back in the middle of March - ahead of at least 10 prospects that ended up being drafted in the first to rounds - and predicted he would go off the board somewhere around the 5th round. That was before it was known that Petersen would be limited to throwing only 2.2 innings of ball this season (during 2 appearances out of the pen in mid-February), so his health woes probably knocked him down at least 15 rounds for many teams.
2015 college commitment: unknown.
'13 (Far West Summer): G=14, IP=14.2, K=8 (4.9/9), BB=5 (3.1/9), K/BB=1.6, H=6 (3.7/9), WHIP=0.75, ERA=1.84
'14: G=2, IP=2.2, K=2 (6.8/9), BB=1 (3.4/9), K/BB=2, H=1 (3.4/9), WHIP=0.75, ERA=0.00
VID1: Bullpen - June 2012 - Petersen trys out for the Rangers: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X9nid1mU6fE
VID2: August 2013 - Petersen hits batter who throws bat at him: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4UAkgS2_Wk#t=14
25.748 Murray, Byron: RF, RHH, Trinity Christian Acad., FLA (5’10", 195) DOB=1995/07/26 (DDA=18.314) [; ; ]
I'm guessing Murray could be a difficult sign for the Giants. If they want him enough and are willing to pony up a fairly significant amount of cash over his allotted $100K max slot figure, though, he should be amenable to foregoing his partial scholarship offer from Southern Miss and turning pro. Murray was born in the Bahamas, but still started playing baseball at the age five (copying his older brother). At 14, he came to the U.S. to play HS ball in southern Florida and to chase his dream of playing in the Major Leagues. His older brother, Brandon, followed a similar route 4 years earlier - ending his 4 year career at the College of Charleston this past May with a total of 28 HRs and a .938 composite OPS. On video, Byron shows me very good mechanics at the plate, and he reportedly has shown very good baseball instincts and actions on defense and on the basepaths in-game over the last 2 HS and summer showcase baseball seasons. He already has a very solid and strong build, but it's not very projectable. He's very unlikely to get much taller or bigger in the coming years, but I do think he can add noticeably more strength. He's also very old for his HS draft class and really should have graduated with the 2013 HS draft class. That being said, I do like what I see from Murray in terms of his overall athleticism, build, strength, baseball actions and on-field results. He has an above average arm (up to 89 mph from the OF) and he is very accurate with his throws from the OF. He also has above average speed (clocked between 6.65-6.85 seconds in the 60), and his speed reportedly does play up in games due to his quickness, athleticism, and baseball instincts. His swing is quite short and compact, yet he is still able to generate well above average bat speed and power without any leg-kick or long stride. To sum up, Murray would be a great sign for the Giants, because I see a kid with a lot of upside (though not physically-speaking) who has been able to make himself really look the part of a baseball player despite coming late to the game. It will be very interesting for me to see what the Giants or his college coaches can develop him into with the top-level coaching that he has yet to receive. Murray batted .408 with 5 doubles, 2 triples, & 7 HRs as a junior for Trinity Christian HS in 2013 - while playing an excellent defensive CF. In 2014, as a senior, he hit slashed .371/.446/.775/1.221 with 6 HRs, 4 triples, 10 doubles, and 14 Ks vs. 10 BBs in 89 at bats. Giving an indication that he won't likely be overmatched by elite velocity and stuff in the coming years, Murray went 1 for 3, with a single, a HBP, and 2 Ks in a HS game against Touki Toussaint (the #16 overall draft pick) and Coral Springs Christian Academy back on March 4th. PG.com scouting report from a June 2012 showcase weekend:
"Byron Murray is a 2014 OF/3B with a 5-10 175 lb. frame from Lake Worth, FL who attends Christian Academy. Thick chested extra strong build. Right handed hitter, good strength in swing, stays short and hits with hands, ball comes off the barrel well, tends to get hands started late against velo, tools to improve with more experience. Good outfield actions, runs well, strong on line throws, very accurate in games and threw runners out, good feel for playing defense. Native of the Bahamas. Good student"
Southern Mississippi Univ. commit.
VID1: 7 clips of him hitting, running and fielding at PG showcase events on his PG.com bio page:
VID2: HR Derby - Dec. 2013 - hits 4 HRS (between 417 & 449 feet): http://vimeo.com/97293167
26.778 Cole, Hunter: 3B/RF, RHH, Univ. Georgia (6’1", 195) DOB=1992/10/03 (DDA=21.245) [241; 148; 216]
UPDATE: Cole is currently playing summer ball in the prestigious Cape Cod League. That doesn't mean that he won't sign with the Giants eventually, because hundreds of draftees have been signed while playing ball in summer college leagues over the past 10 years. OTOH, unless the Giants are willing to offer Cole a bonus in the $200K-$300K range, I don't see that they have much of a chance to stop him from going back Georgia for his senior season of college ball with the idea of showing well enough to get drafted no later than the 10th round. Even if the Giants do like him enough to want to offer him such a large over slot bonus, I'm not at all sure that they will have the flexibility to spend that much when all is said and done.
Cole's main asset is his well above average raw power. He's also opened a few eyes this past spring by how good he looked defensively at 3B when he took over the position out of necessity early in the season after being an outfielder during his first 2 years of college ball. After seeing him play 3B this season, I have little doubt that he can be at least a slightly above average defender there in the pros. He does have more than enough footspeed and arm to make the move back to RF and possibly even as a marginal CFer. Cole's main drawbacks are his lack of in-game power production and the above average swing-and-miss that he has displayed the last 3 years. He strikes out too much for a guy that hasn't hit for much power in college or on the Cape. OTOH, he has always shown good patience and well above average BB-rates (> 11% in over 600 college ABs) at the plate. He needs to shorten up his swing and learn better control of the strike zone in order to succeed in the pros. I'd love to see the Giants be able to sign Cole here to anything near slot, because I see it as a good risk/reward profile, but I'll admit that he has the offensive profile that the Giants have rarely ever been able to convert into a productive major league hitter during the Sabean era.
Drafted out of HS in the 49th round of 2011 draft by Washington.
’12: .276/.375/.448/.823, BABIP=.354, isoP=.172, AB=192, 2B=12, 3B=0, HR=7, BB=28 (12.5%), K=56 (25%), SB=7/7 (100%)
‘13: .303/.378/.436/.814, BABIP=.375, isoP=.133, AB=211, 2B=10, 3B=3, HR=4, BB=27 (11.2%), K=50 (20.7%), SB=4/6 (67%)
'13 (Cape): .241/.343/.336/.679, isoP=.115, AB=116, 2B=5, 3B=0, HR=2, BB=18 (12.9%), K=45 (32.4%), SB=6/8 (75%)
’14: .319/.400/.430/.830, BABIP=.406, isoP=.111, AB=207, 2B=14, 3B=0, HR=3, BB=25 (10.6%), K=49 (20.9%), SB=3/4 (75%)
VID: Live AB - summer 2013 - CCL: http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/67565098/v33269853
27.808 Kaden, Connor: RHP, Wake Forest Univ., NC (6’4", 200) DOB=1992/10/27 (DDA=21.221) [; ; ]
UPDATE: According to his twitter account, Kaden signed in mid-June. He hasn't been placed on any roster yet, surely got less than $100K (no bonus pool hit).
Kaden is a very good value pick this late in the draft. He has a lot of upside for a college pitcher taken afer the 20th round. Kaden has a pitching profile that is typical for the Giants to target in the mid- to late-rounds of John Barr-led drafts. That is, he is a power-armed RHP who has a pro frame and above average velocity, but has always struggled with his control and the consistency of his secondary pitches. The vast majority of these guys end up in the bullpen in the minor leagues, although a few have been able to develop enough control and secondary pitches to make it as a starter. He was a tall, very skinny kid (6'3", 175 lb.) coming out of a New Jersey HS back in June of 2011, that only threw in the mid-80s. With that velocity, it's no wonder that he wasn't drafted by any team back then. Kaden has been able to add about 25 pounds to his frame the last 3 years and his velocity has ticked up to where he now occasionally will touch 93-94 mph. I see a clean delivery from Kaden, that is repeatable, so the Giants don't have a major echanical overhaul on their hands with him.
'12: G=9, GS=3, IP=11, K=8 (6.6/9), BB=9 (7.4/9), K/BB=0.89, H=16 (13.1/9), WHIP=2.27, BAA=.327
'13: G=21, GS=1, IP=30.1, K=27 (8/9), BB=18(5.3/9), K/BB=1.5, H=26 (7.7/9), WHIP=1.45, BAA=.239, BABIP=.300
'13 (Valley Summer): G=9, GS=8, IP=49.1, K=69 (12.6/9), BB=30 (5.5/9), K/BB=2.3, H=32 (5.8/9), WHIP=1.26, ERA=2.55
'14: G=17, GS=12, IP=61.1, K=52 (7.6/9), BB=26 (3.8/9), K/BB=2, H=54 (7.9/9), WHIP=1.30, BAA=.232
VID1: July 2013 - Valley League summer ball: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7K6OuLPu7PY
VID2: July 2013 - Valley League summer ball: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AUo3X1JNHKw
VID3: July 2013 - Valley League summer ball: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FhPZWySkPPc
28.838 Sabo, Nick: LHP, Long Beach State (6’5", 220) DOB=1993/06/14 (DDA=20.355) [; ; ]
Sabo moved into a full-time weekend starter role for a very good Long Beach State team in 2014 - after being mainly a mid-inning long reliever and spot mid-week starter during his first 2 college seasons for them. I'll repeat myself by saying that I view this pick as another good value for the Giants at this spot in the draft, but I'll also say that I think the Giants will have a hard time signing Sabo here unless they are willing to pay him close to the $100K allotted slot (which I doubt they are). Sabo's stats during 2013 were only average, but he wasn't 100% healthy most of the season. He does have a great frame (tall and lean, with long limbs and a high waist). In the brief clips I've seen of him pitching, it does appear to me that a few mechanical tweaks to his delivery could allow a team to unlock much more of his potential and enable him to be more repeatable with his delivery and consistent with his secondary pitches. He did look to me to have the tendency to aim his pitches this year, instead of cutting loose and trusting his mechanics. I'd put him down as showing comps similar to recent Giant college LHP draftees Joe Kurrasch, Christian Jones, and Drew Leenhouts.
'12: G=8, GS=3, IP=16, K=10 (5.6/9), BB=5 (2.8/9), K/BB=2, H=27 (15.2/9), WHIP=2.00, ERA=7.31
'13: G=15, GS=5, IP=39.1, K=26 (6/9), BB=20 (4.6/9), K/BB=1.3, H=45 (10.3/9), WHIP=1.65, BAA=.290, BABIP=.344
'13 (West Coast): GS=12, IP=75.1, K=57 (6.8/9), BB=16 (1.9/9), K/BB=3.6, H=69 (8.2/9), WHIP=1.13, ERA=2.63
'14: GS=14, IP=79, K=49 (5.6/9), BB=28 (3.2/9), K/BB=1.8, H=65 (7.4/9), WHIP=1.18, ERA=3.30
VID1: Game - Feb. 2014 - LBSU vs. Vandy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBPjYfW1QLQ
VID2: Interview - April 2014 - LBSU vs. Cal Poly: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JySZNU2ssPk
33.988 Deacon, Jared: C, LHH (throws RH), Cal State-Fullerton (6’, 190) DOB=1991/08/25 (DDA=22.284) [; ; ]
UPDATE: Deacon signed for less than $100K (no bonus pool hit) mid-June, and has made his pro debut for Salem.
Deacon is a 5th-year senior with no more college eligibility left. He's got no power and is physically small for a catcher, but he's shown to be a smart and tenacious player and hitter and good handling pitchers. He's a sure-fire org-filler who should log a few seasons in the Giants farm system, because he's a smart catcher.
’12: .307/.386/.362/.748, BABIP=.351, isoP=.055, AB=127, 2B=1, 3B=3, HR=0, BB=10 (6.5%), K=17 (11%)
‘13: .302/.393/.340/.733, BABIP=.381, isoP=.038, AB=53, 2B=0, 3B=1, HR=0, BB=4 (6.3%), K=11 (17.5%)
'13 (Nrthwoods): .286/.403/.337/.740, isoP=.051, AB=98, 2B=2, 3B=0, HR=1, BB=17 (14%), K=26 (21.5%)
’14: .300/.429/.300/.729, BABIP=.375, isoP=.000, AB=50, 2B=0, 3B=0, HR=0, BB=8 (12.3%), K=11 (16.9%)
VID1: April 2014 - walkoff suicide squeeze - CSUF vs. Hawaii: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OHlWcOCK438
VID2: April 2014 - single - CSUF vs. Hawaii: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nNypYBGkwfI
VID3: Interview - April 2014 - CSUF vs. Hawaii: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u-grGrnc31E
34.1018 Susnara, Tim: C/LF/RHP, St. Francis HS, Mountain View, CAL (6', 185) DOB=1996/04/17 (DDA=18.049) [335; 271; 272]
Oregon baseball recruits have been really tough to sign away from their commits in recent years due to the presence of legndary head coach George Horton and one of the top workout facilities and stadiums of any college program in the country (thanks to Nike's billionaire CEO Phil Knight). Susnara also strggled mightily at the plate this spring, hitting .223 with no HRs. So, it seems at first glance that he's sure to be enrolling at Oregon this September and that this pick was a courtesy pick by the Giants for a local Bay Area kid they've been following for a few years. Strangely enough, I do have a gut feeling that this wasn't a courtesy pick and Susnara is the main high-upside, high over slot draftee from the last 12 rounds that the Giants will work very hard to sign. Even if they don't believe in his bat, Susnara does show intriguing promise off of the mound with a low-90s FB and a hammer curveball that flashes plus potential. The Giants should be able to offer him something in the $400k-$500k range, similar to what they gave to John Riley last July (to get him to give up his Stanford scholarship). I have no idea it it's true, but I'm hoping that the fact that Susnara is a local South Bay native who likely grew up dreaming of playing for the Giants will give them a leg up in theiir pursuit fo Susnara. Susnara has an above average arm for a catcher, and its quick and accurrate. In addition, he has quick feet and has potsed plus pop times on throws from behind the plate. His other above average tool is his power with the bat. His foot speed is slightly below average (7.1 seconds in the 60), so 1B & 3B seem like the logical options if he doesn't make it as a catcher defensively. He definitely has the athleticism and baseball smarts to make the transition if called upon.
PG's scouting report on Susnara after the PG National Showcase weekend in June 2013:
"Tim Susnara is a 2014 C/OF with a 6-0 185 lb. frame from Redwood City, CA who attends St Francis HS. Strong athletic build, looks bigger than listed, has big tools behind the plate, quick actions, flashes advanced blocking skills and lateral agility, big raw arm strength, quick compact release. Left handed hitter, big shift into contact and gets to front side, loose swing with good barrel skills, mid field line drive contact, projects power in the future. Athleticism will carry. Good student, verbal commitment to Oregon."
UPDATE: Susnara has been playing for an 18U travel team since the beginning of June. His team played in a big Perfect Game-sponsored national tournament during the last week in June and Susnara was the starting pitcher for one of their games. Reports had him throwing his FB sitting in the 91-92 mph and displaying "a hammer 12-6 CB."
VID1: Drills + ABs - summer 2013 - Showcases: http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/67565098/v33238819
VID2: Drills + ABs - summer 2013 - Showcases: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-lZ7Om1c7o