Fangraphs, who somehow managed to completely miss the Zito phenomenon (I've been wanting to vent on that), put up the expected "What's Wrong With Timmy" piece. Where it gets interesting is in the comments section, where there's some information that has probably been discussed already in various threads, but that really brings it home for me that Timmy's still got his stuff.
He has 10 k’s in 8 innings on the season and is still getting plenty of swings and misses. Let’s not forget his first two starts were in the best hitter’s parks in the NL. He was also a victim (to some degree) of bad luck/bad defense last night. Plenty of bloop singles, a double over the 3B bag that Sandoval barely missed, and infield swinging bunt single and two passed balls credited to Hector Sanchez.
Let’s give it some time before jumping off the bridge.
If you didn’t know the pitcher’s name and just saw the following:
K/9 = 11.74
BB/9 = 3.52
BABIP = .444
HR/FB = 28.6%
…wouldn’t you just assume he’s gotten really unlucky?
I think they both make really good points. Timmy's still got the stuff. The only thing that I'm really worried about is injury. The drop in velocity, the difficulty locating, and the slider scrapping all have me wondering if maybe there's something going on that we don't know about, as far as Tim's shoulder and/or elbow.
In my opinion, the good news is that Timmy has been unlucky, and continues to dominate by some highly respected sabermetric standards. The bad news is that he's clearly fighting against something. Could be early season jitters. Wouldn't be the first time. Could be something else. We'll just have to wait and see.