2012 MLB Draft Snapshot - The Shortstops

by shankbone on Feb 8, 2012 10:30 PM PST

There will be a lot of change between now and the draft (June 4-6) but it is less than 5 months away now. I thought I’d crib a baker’s dozen of likely suspects and muse a bit on how that pertains to the Giants.

Decided to start with shortstops because it is such a position of need across MLB. There seems to be a broad trend of returning the position to a defense first, deficient bat scenario. There are very few blue chip shortstop prospects, and very few blue chip shortstops playing in MLB. I call the position a wasteland.

(Mistakes are all mine; corrections, omissions and the like are all encouraged.)

Giants currently toiling at SS:

Big Giants: Brandon Crawford, with Ryan Theriot caddying and Mike Fontenot assisting the caddy.

National Attention: Joe Panik, Ehire Adrianza

Others: Nick Noonan, Carter Jurica, Ydwin Villegas, Kelby Tomlinson, Christian Otero, Jean Delgado, and don’t rest on the coolest name of the 2011 draft, Trayvious Relaford

Its worth noting that the Giants drafted 5 shortstops last year and signed all of them: Panik, Delgado, Tomlinson, Otero and Relaford. They may well consider the position taken care of and just draft depth in the later rounds.

With the Giants avoiding Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins, Rafael Furcal and not offering starting jobs to Alex Gonzalez or Clint Barmes, they are committed to Crawford’s defense and suspect bat for the moment. I personally like Crawford more than most around here, and am looking forward to some rangy and smooth defense next year, but he will always struggle at the plate. The hope it seems is for him to get savvy enough to scrape 260/340 with 15 HR pop. That would be at or very close to his ceiling according to most pundits and he’d have to work for it.

So should the Giants first look at the draft be at shortstop? There are a couple of guys that should absolutely get looked at if they drop. It is just too much of a positional advantage if you have a seriously good player there. It is easy to understand why the Rockies locked up Tulo so fast.

Top 3 SS Prospects:

Carlos Correa, Deven Marrero, Gavin Cecchini

And 10 more for a Baker’s Dozen:

CJ Hinojosa, Addison Russell, Jesmuel Valentin, Kenny Diekroeger, Tanner Rahier, Nolan Fontana, Chris Taylor, Avery Romero, Stephen Perez, Chris Duffy

(I didn’t spend a lot of time with the ranking order, point is to get a feel for a few of the guys I thought were interesting. Physical measurements could be wrong, cribbed most from BA)

1. Carlos Correa, HS from Puerto Rico Baseball Academy, Miami/Vanderbilt commit

6’3 190 lbs. R/R 9/22/1994

The Goods: Known for excellent range, soft hands, rocket arm on defense, big and strong, raw hitter, quick hands and bat. 2nd youngest guy on BA top 100. He can run a little too, 6.79/60. Best prospect coming from PR in a long time, if not ever.

The Bad: Might have to move to third if his body fills in, free-swinger and raw.

The Stats: Tore up the PerfectGame showcase and cemented his first round status in January, won the Rawlings Defensive Player of the Year 2011.

The Ranking: BA #17 Mayo #16

The Giants: Should be all over my White Whale #1B. They drafted out of the PR BB academy heavily last year, they know exactly who he is even before the hype. One fact that isn’t straight is where he is committed – several websites including Mayo have him committed to Vanderbilt. BA has him committed to Miami. It’s an important fact to get straight, Vanderbilt has a history of very strong commits. Here is Correa himself: “I look at baseball, apart from having fun, as a job that can allow me to help my family economically. With God’s help, I can one day help my entire family.” If for some bizarre reason he gets down to the lowly #20 pick, would he take 500K overslot, for a total of say, 2MM? I personally think he would. I’m sad to say the chances of having this discussion are slim to none.

2. Deven Marrero, Junior at ASU.

6’1 195 lbs. R/R 08/25/1990

The Goods: Best college SS in the draft, almost consensus top 5 pick. Line-drive gap hitter with arms, hands and range to stick at short. Draws Omar comparisons on defense with a better bat.

The Bad: A slightly long swing? Not much pop.

The Stats: 319/354/444 at ASU 2011. 322/385/441 on Team USA.

The Ranking: BA #4 Mayo #3

The Giants: Not worth worrying about, he’ll be long gone.

3. Gavin Cecchini, HS from Barbe HS, LA, Ole Miss commit

6’2 185 lbs. R/R 12/22/1993

The Goods: Baseball family guy, his brother Garin was drafted by the Bosox. Should stick at SS with good range and strong arm. Quick stroke, gap power, good speed.

The Bad: Not the highest grades on range, might have to move to 2nd/3rd. Has the scrappy label.

The Stats: Team USA U18, PerfectGame and Under-Armour All-American (he was his teams MVP)

The Ranking: BA #16, Mayo #18

The Giants: Cecchini is the other likely high 1st rounder who might drop to the 20 spot. Seems like a smart player who can hustle. His intangibles might make it worth a look, but if he has to move off SS there are bigger fish to fry.

4. CJ Hinojosa, HS from Klein Collins HS, TX, Texas commit

5’11 185 lbs. R/R DOB: 7/15/1994

The Goods: Committed to go to Texas early, then he changed his mind for HS. Very good bat speed, gamer and a rep for toughness. Pull power.

The Bad: Sounds like a maverick. How Texas of him. Not a lock for SS.

The Stats: Area code alum.

The Ranking: BA #36, Mayo N/A

The Giants: Don’t know if teams would take a chance on him in the first round, and definitely don’t see the Giants willing to take a chance on this. Very high profile guy though.

5. Addison Russell. HS from Pace HS, FL, Auburn commit

6’1 205 lbs. R/R DOB: 01/23/1994

The Goods: “Very good bat speed and doesn't get cheated at the plate”. I’m sure with this guy there will be a joke attached to that previous line a lot. That was Mayo’s line. Here is BA’s line: “Russell's swing can sometimes get a long and draws comparisons to Juan Uribe”. Ho ho ho.

The Bad: He looks like he’ll bulk up and move to third.

The Stats: Team USA alum, he socked a grand salami to win the Pan Am championship against Canada. He did PerfectGame and UnderArmour as well as Team USA.

The Ranking: BA #37 Mayo #27

The Giants: I see him being passed over in the first and getting snagged up early in the supplemental. No way he stays on the board for our #2 pick in the low 80s. I like him.

6. Jesmuel Valentin. HS from PR Baseball Academy, LSU commit

5’10 180 lbs, S/R DOB: 5/12/1994

The Goods: So we won’t have much of a shot at Correa most likely. How about the 2nd round, will Valentin still be around? This guy will definitely stick at short. He is a switch hitter, he’s tough, and he is Jose Valentin’s son, I always thought Valentin Sr. was an underrated ballplayer. Jr. is a line drive hitter with some pop who can hustle around with good defense and a good arm.

The Bad: right now he is unranked by BA. Better hitter RH. Not spectacular at anything.

The Stats: Wowed at the Underarmour game, team MVP (same game as Cecchini)

The Ranking: Unranked

The Giants: Rising up the ladder, he might crack the top 50 in the draft. Like Correa, I’m sure they’ve scouted him. If he’s there in the 2nd, I hope they consider it.

7. Kenny Diekroeger Junior from Stanford

6’2 200 lbs, R/R DOB: 11/5/1990

The Goods: Polished college bat, solid defense, above-average ability, apparently a very gifted athlete.

The Bad: Hasn’t played very well lately, regressed at the plate, may not stick at short.

The Stats: 292/351/365 at the Farm, 2011. 324/354/446 at the Cape 2010. Didn’t play summer ball though.

The Ranking: BA #29, Mayo #21

The Giants: This guy will get a look I’m sure. He seems a bit like Joe Panik, but also could turn into a Crawford situation if his stats slide some more. I’d say the Giants will look for him if he drops to the third like Crawford did. A lot riding on this season for Kenny, he could rise up or crash.

8. Tanner Rahier, HS from Palm Desert HS, San Diego commit

6’2 210 lbs, R/R DOB: 10/12/1993

The Goods: This guy is a freak. He’s left his HS team for a wooden bat league to help his development. He has legendary workouts involving tires, pulling objects, etc. Google palm beach, Rahier and workout or something, you’ll see. Plus bat speed, good running speed, good arm at short. His drive really sets him apart. Huge hustler.

The Bad: How many bad news bears jokes can you take? BA goes with the “he’s not the prettiest shortstop” and he seems to play every game like it’s his last. Hello infield rail.

The Stats: Wooden Bat league for the past 2 years.

The Ranking: BA #55, Mayo N/R

The Giants: I can’t see them taking the chance on a HS guy who is committed to his local college, but on the other hand, if he’s this committed to his career he’s been doing wooden bat leagues maybe they should give him a look. Maybe the case where he’s long gone by the 80s, I could see a supplemental pick being worth the risk.

9. Nolan Fontana, Junior from Florida

5’11 190 lbs, L/R DOB:

The Goods: Polished college glove. Should stick at the position. Takes a lot of pitches, good situational hitter. Saber guys dream, over 100 walks in the past 2 years.

The Bad: Not very fast. Not much pop. Left hand injury still hasn’t recovered.

The Stats: 309/426/457 2011 college.

The Ranking: BA #67, Mayo N/R

The Giants: I don’t see this guy as being much better than what we have. And the organization isn’t exactly foaming at the mouth looking for good obp. They most likely aren’t impressed with a 309 BA in college.

10. Chris Taylor, Junior from Virginia

6’0 170 lbs, R/R DOB:

The Goods: ACC! Virginia’s leadoff hitter is a speedy guy, he can play all over the diamond as a backup but won the SS job last year. Good tourney results.

The Bad: Not much power. Looks like a utility guy.

The Stats: 301/378/402 in 2011 NCAA.

The Ranking: BA #78, Mayo N/R

The Giants: Well, BA mentioned the Panik word in their description. If he falls far enough, maybe he’s worth a look. This is a guy Keith Law will definitely spit out the utility IF label on though.

11. Avery Romero, HS from Pedro Menendez HS FL, Florida commit

6’0 195 lbs, R/R DOB: 5/11/1993

The Goods: Back to the HS kids. Top FL prep prospect, good bat speed, hard contact and pitch recognition. Another HS kid with a strong work ethic.

The Bad: Not the fastest guy, might have to move off short.

The Stats: Area Code Guy.

The Ranking: Unranked.

The Giants: Can’t see the Giants looking at this guy too hard. Florida is a pretty awesome program, I bet he goes.

12. Stephen Perez, Junior from Miami U

5'11 175 lbs, S/R DOB: 12/16/1990

The Goods: Very good glove, range, arm. Classic no-hit all glove shortstop. The prototype of the future!

The Bad: Switch hitter, but can’t hit much. Free Swinger. Doesn’t run well.

The Stats: Hit 263 2011 NCAA, 233 2011 Cape Cod

The Ranking: BA N/R, Mayo #47

The Giants: We have a better version of this already, thanks.

13. Chris Duffy, Junior from Long Beach State

6’2 170 lbs, R/R DOB: 1/15/1991

The Goods: Gotta end with a sleeper. He hit 244/245/291 his freshman year. 266/298/290 his sophomore year. Then he went to the cape and put up 346/407/429.

The Bad: Yeah, no power, no walks, Shankbone that is a terrible sleeper.

The Stats: See above. All Star in the Cape.

The Ranking: Unranked

The Giants: I think you should always look at Long Beach State shortstops, always. Good sized frame, he looks like a dirt dog. He’s played all over the diamond, and that Cape performance is worth keeping an eye out. Yeah, deep in the draft. You never know.

Comment Starters:

Should the Giants even bother looking at any shortstops?

If Correa’s hype dies down enough to drop to 20, do we take him there?

Any thoughts on Gavin Cecchini?

Is sticking at short mandatory for consideration?

And what of Joe Panik’s chances to stick, and how will that evaluation by the Giants effect the upcoming draft?

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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Comments

I should preface my thoughts with the qualifier that I’d never heard of most of these guys, and everything I know about the Giants system has come from the prospectors on this site and from reading other scouting reports.
- IMO, Giants should be leaning pitching-heavy at the top of this draft. The dearth of guys who profile as even a mid-rotation starter (much less a frontline type) in the system alarms me. They only have one arm in the minor league system who really looks like a potentially above-average starting pitcher who has pitched a full season (though I do like Blackburn, Crick and Demondre Arnold). I would think stocking up on a few more high-ceiling arms should take precedence over thinking shortstop.
- I think that Correa is the only guy on the board worth considering at No. 20, based on my reading of your cribs. If they go SS high in the draft, it would have to be a guy who’s a slam dunk to stay at the position. None of the guys you’ve mentioned here seem to have higher ceilings than what they have at the higher levels. Plus, assuming Panik stays at SS for this year at San Jose, that means they have Tomlinson, Relaford and Otero (I don’t count Delgado; seems he’s already moving to 2B) needing reps at SS going into this season. I’m not a big believer in Kelby and Christian, but I want to see what young Trayvious can do given the opportunity. To draft a guy to move ahead of those three on the org depth chart seems pointless to me, unless it’s Correa and he’s likely to someday be an impact player.
- For me, sticking at short is a mandatory consideration for a guy in the first round.
- No idea on Panik; seems the industry consensus is that he’s eventually going to be a 2B. If I were the VP of personnel, I would go ahead and have him make the switch if I agreed. Obviously, the Giants FO knows more than I do.

by leftyqb6 on Feb 9, 2012 1:23 PM PST reply actions

Thanks for reading, I just felt like throwing something together.

I agree with you about pitching. Grabbing a high profile arm would definitely help the re-stocking process. After the Beltran trade, Sabean alluded to “it’s our job to find the next guy” and the easiest way to do that is go out and spend your 1st round pick. I think Wheeler’s not shooting up the ladder made it a little easier to part with him. His ETA is conservatively 2014, maybe 2015 if he hiccups. So replacing that high-ceiling arm will most likely take precedence. And like Wheeler, I think they’ll look heavily at Georgia again, Luke Sims, Clate Schmidt and Duane Underwood. Underwood is the lowest ranked right now but he looks pretty interesting.

Good point about not messing with the depth chart. The most telling quote on Panik from the Giants so far to me is the sjgiants website where Joe Ritzo interviewed Fred Stanley and he said “At short, he’s very sure handed. As accurate a thrower as you’ve seen come through San Jose, including (Brandon) Crawford. You’ll appreciate his shortstop play.”. Who knows, I think they’ll let him play short next year for a bit at least. But the industry consensus seems to be 2nd for sure.

by shankbone on Feb 9, 2012 3:08 PM PST up reply actions

Yeah, but Bobby Evans has consistently referred to Panik as a “middle infielder” ever since they drafted him.

I don’t think that the Gaints would hesitate to “mess with the chart” if a keeper fell to them at #20. The only ones on your list that I would currently rate as keepers are Marrero and possibly Cecchini. I think the Giants would probably think of Correa as a keeper, but I don’t rate him as a SS at this point – he’s in my 3B category. That being said, the Giants don’t draft HS position players in the first round, so Marrero is probably the only name on this list that the Gaints might end up taking at #20. They might be tempted by Diekroeger, but I hope not because I don’t like his bat and think that he’ll end up as a 2B or CF in the pros.

Of course, there’s still a ton of HS and college ball to be played before the draft this year and there’s sure to be new names that will jump onto the list and lots of movement of the guys on the list.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Feb 9, 2012 4:04 PM PST up reply actions

Have to say I completely disagree with a lot of what you said. I’m a firm believer in taking the best player available at the top of the draft. Ballplayers are so unpredictable that I think it’s smart to just pick the best you can find, then worry about the rest later.

by Dan from NM on Feb 18, 2012 7:41 PM PST up reply actions

Some Other Names

include Corey Seager from NC HS, Matt Reynolds from Arkansas, Austin Nola from LSU, Kyle Farmer from GA and Adrian Marin from FL HS.

by shankbone on Feb 9, 2012 2:53 PM PST reply actions

Good info Shank

As I noted above, the one guy that I think the Giants would consider going for at #20 would be Marrero. He’d have to have a very mediocre Junior season to still be around at #20, but he would be the perfect fit for John Barr at that point. Barr loves college position players that showed well in the Cape Cod League and then fall down the board due to troubles in their last season before the draft.

As leftyqb noted above, the Giants have already moved Jean Delgado off of SS, so it’s likely he’s not going to be on the depth chart going forward. Relaford and Otero are supposed to be fantastic defenders at SS, so I have to believe they’ll be the starters in Scottsdale and S-K this year, with Tomlinson in Augusta, Panik in SJ and Adrianza in Richmond. Villegas in basically org filler at this point, while Noonan will probably be given 1 more shot to remain relevant by playing SS in Fresno this year. If I had to guess I’d say that they’ll move Jurica to 2B in Richmond or SJ.

The only guys that I’ve seen on your draft prospect list are Correa (in vid clips), Marrero (on TV a few times), Fontana (on TV a lot and twice in person), Diekroeger (on TV a few times), Perez (on TV several times), Taylor (on TV several times), and Valentin (vid clips). I like Correa the best of all of them, but I see him eventually moving to 3B and he could be a difficult sign if he falls to #20. I like Marrero’s all around game a lot and I think he will likely be the best pro SS on the list. Fontana is a very good defender (he’s also a faster runner than you give him credit for), he will stick at SS in the pros, and he’s an incredibly assured and advanced hitter. He works the count like a seasoned pro, and he has no fear when hitting with 2 strikes on him – he’s a textbook #2 hitter and could be playing in the majors as soon as the middle of the 2014 season if given the right opportunity. I’d love for the Giants to grab him in the 2nd round or later.

I don’t see any of the other college guys you ,mentioned as being anything more than UT infielders in the majors – and even that’s a reach for them. At least half of the HS guys on the list won’t end up as SS over the long-term in the pros, although that doesn’t mean that I wouldn’t consider drafting them after the first round for their toolsets. Valentin is the one HS guy that both intrigues me with his toolset and that I’m sure can stick at SS in the majors. I like his swing, his frame, his athleticism and his bloodlines. He couild be a steal in the 3rd round or later, although it would probably be very difficult to sign him to slot at that point.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Feb 9, 2012 4:40 PM PST reply actions

Fontana

I just re-read the scouting report you posted on Fontana. I like it a little bit more than the first time I read it, but he seems very similar offensively to Panik (and, for that matter, to Kelby Tomlinson, another excellent defensive college SS with good contact/OBP rates but no power). As a lower-bonus guy he seems great…would rather their first-round pick be an arm or a power bat though.
BTW, in my first post I mentioned that the Giants had one potentially good starter in the minors but neglected to identify him as MIke Kickham. Apologies. I am very excited to see what Blackburn, Joan Gregorio, Demondre Arnold and Crick do this year. I’m assuming those four will all advance to at least Salem-Keizer.
Question for you prospect-hound guys: How much time do you spend actually watching high school baseball? Do you find it compelling as a spectator sport or do you glean most of your information from scouting reports?

by leftyqb6 on Feb 9, 2012 5:09 PM PST up reply actions

Fontana is a much better defensive SS than Panik, but not in Panik’s class as a hitter. Fontana is probably a little better defensive SS than Tomlinson, and I believe he’s a better hitter now and will be in the future. Fontana has more power than Shank’s report gives him credit for, but he’ll ruin his game if he tries to hit for power.

As for starting pitchers, don’t forget Kendry Flores and Lorenzo Mendoza. I think they’ll both be in the Augusta rotation alongside Crick and Blackburn. I also think that Mejia and DeJesus will be in Scottsdale or Salem, with Mejia having an outside shot at making the Augusta team.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Feb 9, 2012 7:00 PM PST up reply actions

Sort of funny, I had a depth chart going for the Giants, and then I ditched it to just get the post up, one thing I was struggling with was Fresno SS because I had Noonan possibly playing there after the NRI at spring training and figured that might be wrong and Fla-Giant would come along and correct me.

The low minors was the other struggle, thanks for the correction on Delgado guys. I assume one added benefit of moving him off to 2B is Otero and Delgado can stick together for the year. I’m sure as a young kid professional baseball in another country is pretty bewildering at times and I’ve seen some Giants PR on trying to make them as comfortable as possible.

On Fontana I hesitated on that speed comment, I think BA made that observation but it wasn’t a consensus by any means. Sometimes I have a hard time with negative aspects because I want to look at the positives, so maybe I jumped the gun on that. BA seems ready to move every single SS off of the position this year, pretty tough grades. As the guy holding down the position in the program with the most top talent in the country and the early favorite to dethrone South Carolina, Fontana should definitely get a look. In addition, if this hand injury holds him back at all as far as falling in the draft, that plays to Barr’s MO.

Valentin and Fontana look like the best bets to stay at shortstop and possibly be available in later rounds. I like Valentin a lot, I doubt he’s there in the 2nd much less the 3rd, and then bonus demands might get in the way for sure, especially with who his dad is, he’s not going to be hurting for money the way Correa might.

All those pitchers listed look like a great class of guys to start building depth again. Mejia making the Augusta team and pairing with Crick and Blackburn could make for a pretty awesome rotation.

Leftyqb6 – I watch college games, check out clips like Fla mentioned. Because of the unique situation this year at Harvard-Westlake, I am planning on going to a game or two to watch these guys pitch. I have a neighbor who’s kids go there (stuck down in LA for the past 5 years now). Apparently Lucas Giolito is really special, and Max Fried isn’t a slam dunk top 10 yet, so why not? I wanted to attend the area code games last year but work got in the way.

So Fla, you’ve definitely identified the trend going on for Barr and the Gints with regards to drafting, and I agree with you. I am looking for players that might be worth making exceptions. I agree with you its not likely to happen in the first round with regards to shortstops. I don’t think Correa is going to be there, his size makes it very possible that he might move off, and then you lose the position scarcity that makes it worth the pick in the first place. Still, I like him a lot as a high risk high reward, taking the chance he could stick.

by shankbone on Feb 9, 2012 9:51 PM PST up reply actions

I forgot to answer you’re question about watching high school baseball. I don’t go to hardly any high school games, but that’s more of a function of geography and lack of free time. There hasn’t been a HS player that was rated highly or that has been drafted before the first 15 rounds since I’ve lived in the Tallahassee area. If I lived in the Bay Area, SoCal, or in the Tampa Bay or Miami area then I would almost certainly go to a bunch of HS games. Areas like that always seem to have at least a handful of highly rated propsects every year. When I research HS prospects I typically use the internet to find out scouting reports and video clips of them in action.

I do go to a lot of college games (and watch a bunch on TV) every year. I’m fortunate enough to live in a region that is a part of the 2 best college baseball conferences – the SEC adn the ACC. Between home games at Florida State Univ. and UF, I usually get a chance to see dozens of the top college players in person each year. There’s nothing better than seeing a prospect in person to form an opinion on what thype of a prospect he is. You can also get a lot of info on the internet about college prospects.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Feb 10, 2012 10:08 AM PST up reply actions

I think they should probably just draft the best player available

I want another catcher.

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by GiantPain on Feb 10, 2012 8:02 AM PST reply actions

I think the first-round pick should always be the best player available. While I think they should focus more on pitching in the draft — both with picks and with the available funds — you should never pass on a [signable] impact guy just because of system needs. If the best player available at No. 20 this June is a catcher, so be it.

by leftyqb6 on Feb 10, 2012 9:23 AM PST up reply actions

I agree that a team shouldn’t reach in the early rounds due to need, but to flatly state that BPA should be the only, or overwhelmingly main, consideration is wrong, IMO.

First off, has any evaluator or team shown that they have any real clue who the BPA is when they draft each year? Once you get past the first 3-5 players each year, the success rate of teams picking solid major league regulars in the first round is very, very poor.

Secondly, baseball isn’t like the other major pro sports. Each org only has so many minor league teams. If you already have money sunk into a premium prospects at one position across all of your minor league teams, then it wouldn’t be very smart to draft another player who plays that same position, because somebody is going to end up spending a lot of time on the bench, or, at least, not playing their true position very much in the minors. This is especially true for the premium defensive positions like catcher and SS. There’s only so much playing time for each position across all of your farm system in any given season. It would be different if you could trade draft picks easily, but, even under the new CBA rules, you can’t trade a draft pick until one year after he signs his contract.

Finally, there are lots of other things to add into the equation, including things like signability, bonus demands (this will become even more important now with the new bonus cap penalties), temperament and character of the player, how the player fits into your home stadium’s profile, health concerns of the player (this is especially true for pitcher’s who have mechanics that you project will lead to his arm blowing up in fairly short order).

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Feb 10, 2012 9:49 AM PST up reply actions

I’m working on a catcher list now actually. BPA versus organizational need versus win now versus build your depth versus take a shot on a raw HS kid are all considerations to weigh. Do the Giants do a good job with this? I’d say they are doing a better job than they used to, but Sabean has traditionally regarded the farm as a trading post and only in the last few years has that changed. As the team is competitive again, you get lower draft picks, which in turn makes it easier to stray towards safer picks with higher floors and lower ceilings.

by shankbone on Feb 10, 2012 11:02 AM PST up reply actions

I still think you are reading that wrong

Sabean did trade away more prospects before, but I think that was more a function of them discovering that the prospect is not measuring up and/or not as good as his numbers appear, and thus they trade them to get some value out of them.

Look at the history of trades, no real prospect has ever been traded away who later would make the Giants regret trading him. Nathan, to me, was not a prospect at the time of his trade, Liriano is the only one who has appeared to cause regrets, but really, his injury history and lack of performance in recent years puts him back squarely, in my mind, in the no regrets pile.

That bespeaks of their ability to discern talent in their prospects to a much greater degree, say, than Beane (bye Ethier and CarGon) or Colletti (bye Santana).

Also, most teams actually has this ability, The HardBall Times 2012 Annual has a study of Baseball America Top prospects lists over a long period of time, splitting them into Kept or Traded, and the average WAR for prospects kept was double that of the traded, and the prospects kept were in good player range on average while the traded players, on average, were only OK players.

So where you see Sabean first trading the farm and then lately keeping the farm, I see more that Sabean first was having difficulties finding talent in the draft (mostly due to poor draft position that teams competing for the playoffs end up with) and trading that lacking talent to get value out of them, then once they started having more success in finding talent (both because of good draft position while losing badly and of John Barr’s ability to locate fallen gems) he has been keeping more of them.

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2010's will be known as "Decade of the Giants"

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Feb 10, 2012 12:17 PM PST up reply actions

I’m working on this catcher list. My primary point was from historical review: Sabean traded away former top picks such as Joe Fontenot, Nate Bump, Jason Grilli, et al and turned them into Rob Nen, Livan, et al. Not a criticism, he did quite well in the first six years. The drafting wasn’t so inspired, and that is where my offhand “trading post” reference was going. While riding the Bonds train, there was a combo of low round picks and a general inattention to the farm system. Now that could also be attributed to the Rainy Day Crew’s penny pinching. And it culminated in the Tucker and Benitez et al signings that resulted in no high draft picks in 04/05. Which is a fun subject to debate but at the moment I just want to get this catcher thing done. These prospect review things are hard. This is a good exercise for me.

by shankbone on Feb 10, 2012 1:42 PM PST up reply actions

Look at the history of trades, no real prospect has ever been traded away who later would make the Giants regret trading him.

The Giants tend to not get much value in such trades, unsurprisingly.

by dregarx on Feb 11, 2012 2:57 AM PST up reply actions

Also

I think the move towards safer picks is also related to where they are now in their rebuilding cycle.

Now that the core of the team is pretty much set – Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, Sandoval, Posey, Belt, maybe Brown, Panik – they need the complementary players who can competently play the other positions to fill out the team cheaply, so that they can afford to pay the core players the money they deserve. Taking safer picks with higher floors and lower ceilings also means players who are closer to the big show, i.e. college players, rather than the roll your dice guys, the high school prospects. The High school guys might not make an impact on the team until the core guys have gotten too old to be premiere anymore, at this point of the rebuilding cycle, both Lincecum and Cain will be nearling their middle 30’s by the time these longer shot high school guys who are available at picks 21-30 finally reach the majors.

Adoptive parental unit of Ehire Adrianza.
Godfather of Travis Ishikawa.

2010's will be known as "Decade of the Giants"

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Feb 10, 2012 12:23 PM PST up reply actions

Great recap of the factors that go into selecting a draft pick, and why BPA is not always best

Though I would add that if one of the scouts see a must pick, BPA guy still available at the first pick, I think the team should go BPA. But that should be a very rare occurrence where the Giants should be picking in the draft assuming they continue their winning ways.

Also, regarding your second point, as much as your first point is true, I think most teams (per the THT study of trade/keep I noted below) know who are their keepers are, and if the potential draftee is rated by our scouts as a potential keeper, or at least better than one of the guys we already have, really, the money paid most prospects beyond, say, the 2nd or 3rd round, are usually pocket change in the grand scheme of a baseball team’s overall spending power, so I would say the team should draft the BPA even though the team already have a lot of premium prospects. Unless you think that all the prospects on your depth chart are keepers (and I doubt that is true for any team), if the potential draft pick looks like the BPA, the team should pick him, I believe.

Still, I think you nailed it pretty well, and my first point is more of a quibble. My second point, I think has more meat to hit.

Adoptive parental unit of Ehire Adrianza.
Godfather of Travis Ishikawa.

2010's will be known as "Decade of the Giants"

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Feb 10, 2012 12:33 PM PST up reply actions