Community Prospect List #44
by free f.p. #14 on Feb 1, 2012 9:24 PM PST
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PrintKentrell Hill wins. We're moving on to the final spot of the Community Prospect List. This poll will be open until tomorrrow, February 2nd, at 9pm PST.
Please do not rec these posts. We don't want them to clutter up the recommended FanPosts section.
The list so far:
1. Gary Brown
2. Joe Panik
3. Tommy Joseph
4a. Eric Surkamp
4b. Heath Hembree
7. Andrew Susac
9. Kyle Crick
10. Ehire Adrianza
11. Josh Osich
12. Clayton Blackburn
13. Adalberto Mejia
14. Adam Duvall
15. Conor Gillaspie
16. Ricky Oropesa
17. Jarrett Parker
18a. Chuckie Jones
18b. Mike Kickham
20. Kendry Flores
21. Jacob Dunnington
22. Angel Villalona
23. Charlie Culberson
24. Jesus Galindo
25. Seth Rosin
26. Chris Dominguez
27. Brett Bochy
28. Ryan Cavan
29. Shawn Payne
30. Hector Correa
31. Lorenzo Mendoza
32. Joan Gregorio
33. Rafael Rodriguez
34. Chris Marlowe
35. Enmanuel De Jesus
36. Demondre Arnold
37. Kelby Tomlinson
38. Roger Kieschnick
39. Dan Otero
40. Leonardo Fuentes
41. Chris Heston
42. Derek Law
43. Kentrell Hill
The player's first name links to his Baseball Cube profile page, and his last name links to his Fangraphs profile page.
Jean Delgado (His first name is his BB-Ref profile, his BC profile only showed fielding stats.)
Travious Relaford
Carlos (Eric) Valdez
If you want to see any names added to the poll, mention them in the comments. Vote away!
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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Dunning!
Decent K and BB rate while age appropriate at SJ, all in his first full season pitching. Seems like the perfect live arm kind of player who can breakout anytime.
Imagine you could have a do-over with Fred Lewis, without the bad routes and melancholy. I grant you Chris Lofton.
I’d like to try and orchestrate a 3-way tie between Dunning, Dlegado and Valdez. Too bad I only have 1 vote.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I like it!
"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean
by Smotheredinhugs on Feb 2, 2012 5:47 AM PST up reply actions
This is a line I will stand in.
I'm a Giants Fan, but I'll always be rooting for Matt Downs
Adopted Son:Dan Burkhart , Future Backup To Buster Posey.
We should call it the Sundrendy Windster Award.
@legaleagle88
I'm not crazy. My mother had me tested.
by kdl on Feb 2, 2012 8:18 AM PST up reply actions
Dunning
Good numbers last season after his switch to a relief role (when he more or less took over for Hembree). I like the K rate.
As far as pointless kdl facts: he’s a really, really nice kid.
@legaleagle88
I'm not crazy. My mother had me tested.
Valdez !!!
Some PR for Valdez at #44. This is the droid we are looking for.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0GVUeGF0dIE
Carlos has 3 above average tools, he poses a solid 60 arm, runs 6.6 60 yard dash and raw plus power. Valdez was a 2010 July 2nd eligible player that has presently emerged as one of the best talents available in Latin America. He’s an aggressive hitter with a sound approach and hits the ball with authority to all fields. Valdez is an exciting player to watch, his tools play in game situation now and he shows future projection to be a five tool player.
I'm a Giants Fan, but I'll always be rooting for Matt Downs
Adopted Son:Dan Burkhart , Future Backup To Buster Posey.
I like the scouting report, but I still feel like he’s likely to get assigned to the DSL this summer and I just can’t bring myself to vote for player who’s near term future is his first DSL assignment.
By the way, the Dominican Prospect League had their All Star showcase yesterday. I haven’t seen a box score from it, but the roster is here. They’re also holding showcase games today and tomorrow for DPL players against Venezuelan kids and both rosters are chocked full of potential July 2 signees. Something to keep an eye on.
Did you also notice that they are asking for American baseball teams to come down to the D.R. and play some games against them? I say we put together a McC all-star team and take them on.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I say we put together a McC all-star team and take them on.
I can catch and play third. Decent arm, decent speed, line drive high contact hitter, can take a walk, but not much power.
Five knee surgeries will limit my time behind the dish, but get me some ice, ibuprofen, and a young backup and I could hang :-)
I'm a Giants Fan, but I'll always be rooting for Matt Downs
Adopted Son:Dan Burkhart , Future Backup To Buster Posey.
Carlos Correa
Hey Fla, I noticed on BA’s early draft writeup that Carlos Correa currently sits as their #17 ranked prospect. Of course, all that kind of thing blows away in the wind once the spring season gets going, but still, 17 is tantalizingly close to 20. Close enough for dreams. Yet another in the unending line of Cecchini’s is right in front of him.
The actual #20 ranked draft prospect is Lance McCullers, Jr. who really is a classic kind of Giants pick.
The question I have is with the #2 pick. A HS guy such as Keon Barnum #88 on BA, if he’s there in the 2nd, any chance at all of actually signing him? Surprised they are so down on Cody Poteet, he’s at 79. He is doing a wooden bat league on the same team as that Tanner Rahier guy. Maybe the HS guys who are playing for these wooden bat league teams would be easier signs. Should be interesting to see the strategies play out.
Correa is a Miami recruit?
Early reports I read had him going to Vandy. Interesting. I bet the Giants could get him out of that commit if he dropped though.
Correa would be awesome for the Giants, but the new draft caps make it almost impossible for the Giatns to sign him if he should somehow fall to #20. I don’t have the new slot numbers available for anything past the #5 pick, but from discussions that I’ve read the slots for everything after the first 15, or so, picks are not much higher than the slots from the 2011 draft. I’m guessing that the slot for the #20 pick will be arouind $1.5M.
If Correa falls to #20, I can’t see him being willing to sign for only $1.5M, unless a major injury is the reason he’s still around at #20. I have to believe that Correa and his advisors have gotten so caught up in his hype that they think a top 10 pick and a signing bonus significantly above $1.5M is in their future. Now, if Sabes & Co. are creative enough they could draft Correa at #20, pay him a $2M+ signing bonus, and then pick some low-upside, lowly-rated prospect(s) that will sign for well under slot in rounds 3-10 to make up the $500K+ overslot they paid to Correa. I don’t see the Giants being that creative, though. O
Of course, if Matt Cain leaves in FA then we’ll have 2 more comp picks to give us a lot more $$$ to play with.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I also have to add that I don’t see the Giants going with a HS position player at #20. Besides the complications of the new bonus cap rules, IMO, Sabes is still in a win now mode and a HS position player just takes too much time to get ready for the majors – not to mention that the Giants have had very little success in developing HS position players in the entire Sabean era. Also remember that the Giants have never taken a HS position player in the 1st round in the 4 years that John Barr has been running our drafts.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Just to be more specific, here’s the John Barr numbers for the players that he’s drafted in the first 5 rounds from 2008-2011:
21 = number of draft picks in the first 5 rounds
18 = number of college players taken
2 = number of high school pitchers taken
1 = number of HS postion players taken (Tommy Joseph – 2nd round (# 55 overall) 2009)
Conclusion: John Barr and the Gaints are not comfortable taking HS position players in the first 5 rounds of the draft – a tendency that should only be exaacerbated by the new SBS bonus cap rules.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
With the early picks, Posey dropped and the Giants stepped up. And they picked Wheeler. With the later picks the past 2 years, they went for college value with Brown and Panik. Then they picked up tarnished college bats later on. 12 college bats out of that 21.
I would give them more credit than you on being creative. Signing Panik at just below slot so they could have money deeper in the draft was creative. They netted Susak out of that, and stayed within a pretty tight budget. I don’t see it as a big stretch they can scare up a few hundred G’s to grab a HS demand if they want.
I would agree with the general trend you laid out, but its only 4 years, and looking closer a lot has to do with picking late in the round the past 2 years.
If they like Joey Gallo, or one of these HS SS’s, I would definitely not rule that out. The Giants seem to veer off the predictable path more than most clubs the past few years. I also wouldn’t rule out one of these GA prep pitchers who throw heat.
Especially in the first round, it’ll come down to BPA, at the 20th pick in a weak college class, there maybe some HS guy they feel is worth the risk. I think they’ve drafted very well the past couple of years. They were rumored to be in on the CA HS pitchers last year, and then had Panik as their safety pick. Maybe something similar happens this year, with a Piscotty as the safety net.
Don’t see them taking the Duke pitcher. He looks pretty amazing athletically but every report on him talks about closing and Flash Gordon comps.
I’m not sure I buy that the caps are going to change the number of high round HS players who don’t sign; I think in the end they’ll mostly just change the amounts they end up signing for. I mean, the notion of “only $1.5 mil” is somewhat farcical to me and I’m sure it is to Correa and others as well when it comes down to it. It’s still good money and it still puts you on a path to much better money sooner.
As for HS players taking longer to develop than college players, at the top of the draft I don’t see much evidence for that over the last 10 years. The best players get to the majors in 2-3 years regardless of where they’re starting from. Of course, I’d say the notion of approaching the draft from a “win now” point of view is pretty stupid. Not that they shouldn’t be in a win-now mode in constructing their major league roster, but that’s just not realistically the value the draft provides, and asking something to give you a value other than the one it provides really really well is ill-considered.
While I agree in general, I do think that there are gong to be a handful of highly-rated HS kids that fall past the first 15 picks and end up rejecting multi-million $$$ bonus offers. The slot numbers for guys going in the first 10 picks are so much higher than guys going off later that I think you will see more HS kids rolling the dice by choosing the college route. IMO, these kids will likely go the JuCo route to enable them to be draft-eligible for 4 years in a row (if necessary). Every year that are always a handful of guys that get their expectations raised by advisors and media articles that project them being drafted much higher than they actually do. I do think that this will happen less and less as the years roll on, but this first draft under the new rules is going to be jarring to many teams and many prospects. IMO, by the time the new signing deadline day ends this July we’re going to see a lot more HS players and teams unable to reach an agreement.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I could see some of the CA guys who are playing in wooden bat leagues instead of HS teams doing the JC route. But they might not be highly ranked enough to have large demands also.
With Correa, all reports have his family as pretty poverty stricken. The mlb crib “See, Correa lives in what is essentially the equivalent of public housing in Santa Isabel, Puerto Rico” from this article: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110701&content_id=21250476&c_id=mlb
I think the allure of a quick bonus and getting to the majors as quick as possible is stronger than shoving off to Miami for a couple years. And it doesn’t take that much creativity to bump up the bonus a bit over slot. He’s not going to have 4-6MM bonus demands.
Its most likely moot, like Roache, he will most likely be long gone. but like Roache, if he’s there the Gints better take a long hard look.
McCullers
McCullers, Jr. is also an intriguing name for rthe Giants at #20. He’s a big kid with a lot of raw power with the bat and a flamethrower off the mound. I’d put it at 50/50 right now on whether he ends up as a pitcher or a hitter – which makes him a more likely target for the Giants.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Marcus Stroman
Hey Roger, the guy on the BA list that I would guess at this point in time has the best chance of ending up as the Giants 1st round pick is Marcus Stroman. He’s an undersized (5’9", 185) RHP from Duke who throws in the mid-90s and has topped out at 97 mph. He’s a strikeout artist, but also has good control. I’ve never seen him pitch except in vid clips, but his stats are great and he’s put up dominant numbers in the Cape Cod League in 2010 (as a freshman) and for Team USA last summer. He’s also very athletic.
BA has him rated at #22 overall could see some teams passing on him due to his small size, but if the Giants like his mechanics he could be a huge steal at #20 – not unlike how the Giants stole Lincecum in 2006. The big question mark I have on him is that he might be too much of a max-effort hurler to remain a starter in the majors. The Giants aren’t going to take him at #20 if they think he’s a future reliever.
Here’s a clip ofhim pitching for Team USA against a Japanese aal-star aquad last summer:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_cuGVKiJ88
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
It’ll be interesting to see how they go this year because the way it’s shaping up scouts are very down on the college crop (after the obvious top 5 or six guys) and quote high on the HS crop and particularly the HS bats.
The last two years we picked a college guy few thought should go that early
So if the scouts are down on the college crop then we will pick a college player.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Moving up from the 24th and 29th pick, even if its only to 20, tweaks the dynamic a bit. I think they’ll go BPA but they will also have a safety net player they like from the college ranks, similar to Brown or Panik. My early guess is Piscotty, but another guy to keep an eye on is Richie Shaffer.
If you follow the progression, they have drafted up the middle the past 2 years. A corner bat who can possibly play 1B/3B/RF/LF makes sense. Shaffer has power potential and Piscotty is one of the best proven college bats. They should both be there at 20. That would fulfill “safety” as well as a “win now” type scenario.
Taking a shot at Joey Gallo would be interesting. Roache and Correa are my 2 white whales. This Shaffer guy has power on par with Roache according to BA – “Some scouts thought Shaffer was a better power-hitting prospect than Roache, saying Shaffer has the looser swing and better bat speed.”. Yes he only hit 263 in the cape, but he also won the home run derby and was 2nd in the league in jacks.
My current guesstimate is that they’ll go with a pitcher at #20. Pitching is a strength in this draft (more so high school than college, but there certain to be a few more college guys that climb the lists with a good junior season), it’s a big need in the system, and there will almost certainly be several very good pitchers available at #20.
Also, and this isn’t in response to anything that you wrote, I think the whole BPA claim isn’t backed up when looking at the Giants last 4 first round picks.
In 2008 the Giants biggest needs were catcher, SS and 3B and they just happened to pick a C (Posey)
In 2009 the Giants biggest needs were pitcher and SS and they just happened to pick a pitcher (Wheeler)
in 2010 the Giants biggest needs were CF and SS and they just happened to pick a CF (Brown)
In 2011 the Giants biggest needs were SS and pitcher and they just happened to pick a SS (Panik)
Now, I’ll give them credit for 2008 – Buster was the BPA when they drafted him. The other 3 years they don’t have much of an argument, IMO. The guys they claimed was the BPA on their board just happened to have all played one of their 2 postions of greatest need – and in each year there were other players availble that were likely better than the guy the Giants drafted. They definitely have considered need when they drafted in the first round – we have it straight from the horses mouth in the aftermath of the last 2 drafts. In June 2010, Sabes admitted that he told the draft team to “strengthen the team up the middle” and in June 2011 Sabes was quoted as telling the draft team to “get more athletic.”
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I agree with that, they didn’t take the BPA for the past 2 years, they filled needs. And we shouldn’t count the chickens with either guy, even if they’ve started as well as you can hope for. I like my avatar pic of Thrill, Chili and Chris Brown for that reason. Chris Brown was the first prospect I paid attention to, a sad story that ended up tragic after baseball ended for him.
So if they take a HS pitcher with major upside are they taking the BPA or filling needs or both? For me, the power bat is 1A to pitching needs, and any time you can score a legit good SS you need to take that chance these days. Roache and Correa. Joey Gallo. So Shaffer is a combo of the power and that “safe” choice.
I’d say taking one of these college hitters who can play the corners would be filling needs, but that might not be the worst strategy in the world if the arms you like are taken.
Sabean sometimes goes back to what works best. You say you don’t want the Stanford guys. The ones that scare me are the college OFs – Travis Jankowski and Tyler Naquin. Both are advanced college bats with proven hit tools but not much power, and speedy as hell. If he dips yet again into the defense and speed up the middle because its worked the past 2 years, that will be a major waste of resources.
ESPN HS BB reported that this GA prep arm Duane Underwood was sitting at 93-94 even after 75 pitches. That guy is pretty intriguing. And I can’t shake Joey Gallo as the kind of guy to take a shot at. Both these guys might get hyped enough to get thick heads for sure, the scenario you’ve described where they won’t take 1.5MM plus some change. So the 20 spot is a bit tough, as far as HS guys. Does that drive the Giants to a safe college pick instead? I’d say the chances are high, but its not out of the question they take a shot.
Really?
I remember the Brown pick being panned. I figured “he’s got too many questions” meant the same thing as “they shouldn’t have picked him this early”.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Roger’s right. BA had Brown as the #14 overall player prior to the draft and I remember at least 1 mock had him going off the board at around #20. You are right, though, that his ranking was a lot more volatile than most of the other top players – some evaluators really didn’t think Brown’s game would translate to the pros.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Adam Brett Walker
Hey Fla, BA has ABW pretty high, 31 right now. I know you’ve seen him, you think he’s definitely a 1B. 2 things I’ve seen. First is BA’s report I’ll crib here: “Scouts agree that Walker is athletic enough to handle an outfield spot, and if he hits enough to unlock his massive righthanded power potential, he could be an impact big leaguer.” Second thing is on mlb draft guide (which sadly got hacked and destroyed, Matt G is rebuilding it) – a JU alum sings ABW’s praises loudly and often, he says he runs really well, and will have no problem with the OF. Any thoughts? Only reason I’m asking is Roache looks to be long long gone, and ABW might be the best available substitute.
Well, there’s nothing in the BA report that I don’t agree with. Understand that saying a prospect is “athletic enough to handle an OF spot” is not the same thing as saying he will be at least an average defensive major league OF. The history of baseball prospects is littered with guys that were athletic enough in HS or college to play the OF, but who were never able to translate that athleticism into being able to play even adequate OF defense as pros. From what I’ve seen of ABW, I have huge doubts that he’ll ever be more than a stiff in the OF if he were to make it to the majors. However, I’m keeping an open mind on everybody. ABW’s still got a full season of college ball to change my opinion (although I’ve read that he’ll be playing mostly 1B and DH again this season), and it’s possible that he makes enough strides with his bat for me to be OK with drafting him as a 1B.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Harrold
Although the Carlos Valdez description sounds pretty tantalizing at this point in the rankings.
I’m glad I got back to vote for the last position – you guys have made some interesting choices while I was not around.
Now is the winter of our discontent
Made glorious summer by this son of Cabrera.
Last Pick = Name Vote
Travious wins easily.
"The knowledge of the game is inversely proportional to the price of the seat." ---Bill Veeck. •Read My Blarrrgh...er, um....Comic. That doesn't really come across so well when said sarcastically. The Lunatic Fringe•
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