FanPost

One Giants Fan's NLDS Analysis.


Ok, I'm sure you guys will tell me where I'm off-base, but thought you might find it interesting anyway.

Jet

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My analysis. I’m definitely not as confident as I was in 2010. They really need Vogey to start. The Reds are very splitty and crush LHP. The giants will need to win the first two I think. Reds pen has some no names and recovering closers (Broxton, Arredondo) plus a stud in Chapman.

Offensively the lack of HRs may prove troublesome v good pitching. Interestingly enough, there isn’t that big a difference in slugging especially when you take the parks into account (411/397) Giant just below the league average. Giants scored more runs by quite a bit (718/669) Be nice to see someone like Pence or Panda step up with some big HRs.

Need Mad Bum to be on his game and to squeak one out in game one with the two aces going for both teams.

Your thoughts?

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1. Phillips/Pagan

281/321/429 15/2

288/338/440 29/7

Slight edge to Giants in terms of OB and steals.

2. Cozart/ Scutaro

.246 .288 .399

.362 .385 .473

No contest. Scoots is much better.

Big edge Giants

3. Votto/ Sandoval

Again, no contest Votto is better, but didn't hit for the power he's had in past years.

Big edge Reds

4. Ludwick/Posey

Ludwick has power, but Posey is much better overall.

big Edge Giants

5. Bruce/Pence

.252 .327 .514

.253 .319 .425

Surprising this is close. Bruce gets an edge for the HRs, but it wasn't as big as I had expected.

6. Rolen/Belt

245 .318 .398

.275 .360 .421

Surprisingly Belt had a better year than the oft-injured Rolen and has done his best hitting since the ASG

Slight edge Giants

7. Hanigan/Blanco-Nady-Sanchez

.244 .333 .344/.240 .333 .400/.280 .295 .390

.274 .365 .338

Interesting to note how close Nady and Blanco's numbers are. Nady, of course, is a SSS.

Slight edge to Reds due to OB

8. Stubbs/Crawford

.213 .277 .333

.248 .304 .349

Slight edge to Giants. Stubbs' numbers are not very good.

Overall a slight edge to the Giants.

Fielding

C Hanigan/Posey-Sanchez

Slight Advantage Reds cuz the Giants are going to play Sanchez

1b Votto/Belt-Posey

Votto is very good, but so is Belt.

Slight advantage to Reds cuz the Giants are going to play Sanchez.

2b Phillips/Scutaro

Phillips by a mile

ss Cozart/Crawford

Both are good young shortstops. Crawford has a better arm.

very slight edge Giants

3b Rolen/Sandoval

Rolen is easly than this year's Panda. Last year would have been even

Edge Reds

LF Ludwick/Blanco-Nady-Belt

When Blanco is out there it's a big edge to SF. Otherwise Ludwick is better. If Sanchez only starts one game then the edge goes to SF.

CF Stubbs/Pagan

Stubbs has better range and arm. Pagan is solid, but not spectacular.

Slight edge Reds

RF Bruce/Pence

Same as CF

Fielding favors the Reds strongly, less strongly when Posey is behind the dish and Blanco is in LF. Since the Reds have all RH SPs, this will usually be the case. Still an edge to Cincy.

Starting Pitching

Cueto - Cain

Both are very good pitchers with similar ERAs. Cain has a better WHIP. Perhaps a slight edge to Cain due to his extensive playoff experience

Arroyo - Bumgarner

Mad Bum has better numbers over the entire season. Much has been made about his struggles of late, but three of Arroyo's last four starts were also shaky. Bumgarner is much better at home. Arroyo is better on the road.

Even

Latos - Lincecum

The whole series may turn on which Timmy shows up. If the Giants are unable to sweep at home, they will need a BIG game from Tim. Latos has been solid all season Lincecum has been average the second half.

Edge Cincy unless the Giants can time warp 2010 Lincecum to Cincy.

Bailey - Zitogelsong

When did Bailey get any good? Wow, surprised me. Vogey seems to have recovered his mojo. Giants have won 11 straight Zito starts. It would be a Cinderella Story for Zito to pitch and win, but the Reds are much better v LHP. The Reds start mostly RH'ed hitters which Vogey is better against. Zito isn't very good v RHB. If the Giants start Vogelsong, advantage to SF. If Zito then advantage to Cincy.

If Vogelsong starts a slight edge to SF. If not, slight edge to Cincy.

Pens

Chapman has been dominant. 15.3 k's per 9 and a .81 whip. Marshall has been more hittable particularly v RHB. Arredondo has also been better v LHB instead of RHBs. Broxton has been pretty good in a SSS as has Hoover if he makes the team. LeCure has had a pretty good year.

The Giants "committee" did a good job of picking up the slack for Brian Wilson. Romo/Lopez/Casilla all saved at least seven games. Lopez will be in there to get Votto and Bruce, but expect Romo to face the rest. Casilla can also close should it be required. Affeldt has been up and down, but if he's on he's lights out. Mijares is a loogy and Kontos/Mota are used in middle relief. Vogelsong may be kept in the pen as an insurance policy in case Lincecum implodes.

Chapman is lights out should the game get to him. Bochy manages a pen better than Dusty and has more depth.

Even with maybe a slight edge to SF's more experienced pen and manager.

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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