One Giants Fan's NLCS Team Analysis

Teams are close. It's the playoffs, there are no Astros or Cubs here.

Cards are good on O, but the bottom *should* be weaker than than the Giants.

Giants RPs are more experienced in general. Rotations are close. As far as pitching goes, the wild card is Lincecum and how he's used. If they don't need him in the first three games, he could be a big advantage starting Game 4.

Giants D is better overall.

What follows is lineup/D/Pitching analysis.

Lineups

1. Jay/Pagan

.305	.373	.400
.288	.338	.440

Jay has better Ave/OB, Pagan better slug. OPS’s are about the same. Pagan more speed 29/7 versus 19/7. Jay is better v RHP, but decent v LHP.

This is probably about even, but could lean towards Cards.

2. Beltran/Scutaro

.269	.346	.495
.362	.385	.473

Interestingly enough, slugging is close. Scoots is better in other respects. Obviously, however, Beltran has more power with 32 HRs. Beltran has more speed. Pretty balanced v R and L.

Tough to balance out the HRs with the OB and contact. Would, perhaps, lean slightly towards SF just because Scutaro is more of a #2 hitter, but it’s probably even.

3. Holliday/Sandoval

.295	.379	.497
.283	.342	.447

Gotta lean towards Holliday on this one. He’s not nearly as good v RHP as LHP, but still pretty good. Cards will throw all RHSP as far as I know. Interesting as this is the second series that that will be the case. Panda has better power and OB v RHP, but les average.

Slight Cards advantage

4. Craig/Posey

.307	.354	.522
.336	.408	.549

Both hitters are MUCH better v LHP so that’s not a factor in the comparison. Posey with better OB/ave and similar power in a pitchers park.

Slight SF advantage.

5. Molina/Pence

.315	.373	.501
.253	.319	.425

Pence is actually better v RHP than LHP. Molina rips LHP, but it good v RHP too.

Big edge to Cards.

6. Freese/Belt-Sanchez

.293	.372	.467
.275	.360	.421

Belt is quite a bit better v RHP than LHP *except* for HRs. Freese is another Card who is much better v LHP.

Gotta give the edge to Freese here.

7. Descalso/Blanco

.227	.303	.324
.244	.333	.344

Descalso, even though a LHB is much better v LHP. Blanco has better balance with more power v LHP. Blanco has much more speed

Advantage Giants

8. Kozma/Crawford

.333	.383	.569
.248	.304	.349

Both are balanced. The question here is when will the real Kozma show up? Can a guy who was weaker than Burriss in the minors be this good in the majors? When does he turn into a pumpkin. Based on minor numbers, Crawford is much better. But, in the majors you have to give it to Kozma.

Call it a draw.

On offense, given that the Cards scored much more runs, you have to give the edge to St. Louis. I believe the bottom of the Giants order will produce more than the bottom of the Cards however.

Defense

C – Molina/Posey-Sanchez

Molina is probably the best in the game. Posey is good. Slight edge Cards.

1b- Craig/Belt-Posey

Craig isn’t known for his range. Belt is a good fielder. Edge to Giants.

2b- Descalso/Scutaro

Slight edge to Scutaro based on experience

SS- Kozma/Crawford

Both are known for their D, but Crawford is a GG candidate. Edge to SF

3b-Freese/Panda

Last year this would be a big edge to SF. The extra weight plays in here. Probably Even

LF- Holliday/Blanco

Not anticipating a Nady start so a big edge to SF

CF-Jay/Pagan

Jay isn’t all that great in CF. Pagan is above average. Neither has a great arm. Advantage SF

RF-Beltran/Pence

Beltran (hack, cough) won the GG last year, but having watched him play I think Pence has more range with a similar if not better arm. I’ll acknowledge the GG and call it even

Giants are better on D than the Cards overall.

SPs

Lynn/Bumgarner

Lynn won a lot of games, but his whip and ERA are less than impressive. Lynn isn’t very good v LHB and the Giants will run four at him. Assuming Mad Bum can bounce back, slight advantage SF

Carpenter/Vogelsong

Carpenter has been there. Vogey just made his first PO start. Hard to read too much into Carpenter’s regular season due to the SSS. He wasn’t good v Washington. You have Grit versus experience. Something tells me Vogey has more in the tank than Carpenter,but I’ll call it even.

Lohse/Cain

Cain has been somewhat shaky this October, but their numbers are similar over the course of the season. Cain has been there and done well. Lohse wasn’t good last year, but was good v Wash, not so much v Atl. We’ll call it even.

Wainwright/Lincecum-Zito

The way Timmy is going, if he starts you give the nod to SF. If it’s Zito, a nod to Stl. Overall, Wainwright’s numbers aren’t much better than Zito’s actually. Hard to predict who is going to start this game. So I’ll just call it even.

Slight edge in Mad Bum v Lynn so slight edge to SF

Pen

Motte had 42 saves, Giants "committee" has 53. Romo had a better whip. Boggs and Rosenthal were very good. Giants will run three, maybe four LHRPs out there. Cards may only have one LHP on their entire PO staff. Cards staff is relatively young. Giants have been there before. Give the Giants a slight edge in terms of flexibility and Bochy’s ability to manage a pen.

Overall the Cards have a better offense, but the Giants better D and slightly better pitching. Both teams are riding incredible comebacks and momentum. Giants have the homefield advantage and a manager who’s won a World Series. Slight edge to Giants, but this is going to be a good series that may hinge on Mad Bum and Cain finding their best stuff and returning to the form that got the Giants this far.

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