Community Prospect List #25
by free f.p. #14 on Jan 9, 2012 8:56 PM PST
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PrintI'm a bit late getting this one up, blame handegg. Anyway, Jesus Galindo wins the #24 spot, and here's the poll for #25. This poll will be open until 8pm PST tomorrow, January 10th.
Please do not rec these posts, as we don't want them cluttering up the recommended FanPosts section.
The list so far:
1. Gary Brown
2. Joe Panik
3. Tommy Joseph
4a. Eric Surkamp
4b. Heath Hembree
7. Andrew Susac
9. Kyle Crick
10. Ehire Adrianza
11. Josh Osich
12. Clayton Blackburn
13. Adalberto Mejia
14. Adam Duvall
15. Conor Gillaspie
16. Ricky Oropesa
17. Jarrett Parker
18a. Chuckie Jones
18b. Mike Kickham
20. Kendry Flores
21. Jacob Dunnington
22. Angel Villalona
23. Charlie Culberson
24. Jesus Galindo
The player's first name links to his Baseball Cube profile page, and his last name links to his Fangraphs profile page.
Enmanuel DeJesus
If you want to see any names added to the poll, mention them in the comments. Vote away!
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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I hope the Giants try Rosin back in the rotation, from everything I’ve heard he has the control, pitch selection and low 90’s velocity to make it there. Solid #4?
Mr. Flibble is very cross.
Why isn't Mendoza getting more love?
He was 19 in the NWL, posted 8+ K/9, and <2 BB/9, 2.93 FIP.
What’s he throw? Any scouting reports?
Considering everyone else on that list is old for the league, except RafRod and DeJesus, who we know next to nothing about, Mendoza’s about the closest thing to an age-appropriate prospect left.
Hmmm..
This one site has his fb sitting at 91-93 mph. Not bad. Below avg. curve and change, though. 51% GB rate isn’t too shabby, either.
Also interesting to note that he’s greedy and doesn’t care to win.
Personality Ratings
Leader Ability: Low
Loyalty: Normal
Desire f. Win: Low
Greed: High
Intelligence: High
Work Ethic:
I was all “what the absolute fuck” till I realized that that site is some sort of sim game. So I wouldn’t take the velocity readings any more seriously than the 1.66 ERA in the SAL that it credits him with.
err...
ok, well, then consider me chasm’d. lmao.
Yeah, that's an OOTP player report
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Dominguez
Good power and solid defense. I think he could end up being a solid bench guy
Read Me At: Twitter/Blog/MLBBonusBaby /Giants Nirvana
by Gobroks on Jan 9, 2012 10:27 PM PST via mobile reply actions
yep, power is scarce, esp. in this system
Marvin Barrios, come on I'll show you your bedroom. Don't stay on the phone too long to Panama, please.
by foothillsfan on Jan 9, 2012 10:36 PM PST up reply actions
This line. Then Cavan or Payne, or Gregorio, or Mendoza
I'm a Giants Fan, but I'll always be rooting for Matt Downs
Adopted Son:Dan Burkhart , Future Backup To Buster Posey.
Where did you hear he plays solid defense?
Because that’s contrary to the reports I’ve seen. And I know it’s not particularly Sabermetric or anything, but dude makes a lot of errors. 32 in 2010, 26 in 2011, “good” for .918 and .928 fielding percentage, respectively.
For that matter, the power part is pretty suspect as well. Yes, he’s put up a decent ISO, but he’s only had SLG over .500 in Rookie ball, and he’s been too old for his level at every stop.
Maybe solid was overselling it a bit
He has a very good arm that helps to compensate for below average range
Read Me At: Twitter/Blog/MLBBonusBaby /Giants Nirvana
Melonhead Jr. – check out that K/BB ratio.
Gregorio – tall lad.
Payne – the most entertaining by far.
Rosin – slow him down and start him Brain Trust!
Voted Big Chris D. Had a nice start to his Eastern before he slumped, and he has power and a good arm. Contact issues and age are big handicaps now. Power is scarce though. Will Conor G block his progress to Fresno?
He had a wRC+ of 75 last year.
You think he’s going to Fresno?
Yeah, it’s hard to ignore how poorly he hit in AA – at the ripe old age of 24. Dude will be well past his 25th birthday when the regular season starts and he didn’t do anything to show he deserves to be promoted out of AA yet.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I don't understand why people still think he's a prospect.
He’s as much a prospect as Brett Pill is at this stage.
Worse, in fact
Pill is a good defensive 1B who’s hit well in AA and AAA, albeit not continuously. I like Pill more than Dominguez – at least he’s shown he can do something. Dominguez is still all projection, and at 24 going on 25 that’s just unacceptable.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
I agree, and he’s blocked by Conor G of all people! Except maybe the G’s finally start playing Conor G at 2nd some. If they want to fatten up Chris D’s numbers for one of those classic Sabean trades where we throw in a pitching prospect (Maybe Seth Rosin!) for a reliever or somebody who’s lost some tarnish like Gordon Beckham (assuming he doesn’t bust out at all next year) if Freddy gets hurt. I’m sorry, that should have read when Freddy gets hurt. Does a fatten up numbers strategy work at all in this day and age? I doubt it. I think at this point Chris D is most likely Sabean trade fodder #1-2.
yah... umm... I don't even think he's that.
I think he’s org filler.
Its not a perfect comparison, but look at Michael Morse for a sec. He was a HS draftee, doesn’t K as much but also had less HRs. Over 3K minor league ABs. He would be regarded as org filler a couple years ago most likely. I wouldn’t mind having him right now instead of Pill. Dominguez is definitely long in the tooth but I wouldn’t call him org filler yet.
umm...
At the age of 23, he had a .723 OPS in AAA in 200 AB and then posted a 97 OPS+ in the majors.
At the age of 24, he had a 131 OPS+ in very limited time in the majors, but only 79 wRC+ in AAA.
At the age of 25, he had a 111 wRC+ in AAA and another successful cup of coffee in the majors.
At the age of 23, Chris D was in the SAL.
At the age of 24, he posted a 105 wRC+ in the CAL and a 75 wRC+ in the EL.
I’d say there’s a pretty humongous difference between the two. You know, that whole age relative to league thing?
For clarification:
First 3 lines are More, last 2 are Chris D.
Age relative to league is almost always going to favor HS players.
I just pointed out Morse as a guy who knocked around a bit and is now in the show. I bet Seattle would love him back. Yes, he did enjoy a lot more success earlier in his career age relative than Chris D. But the age relative to league will most times punish college bats. The Giants are taking their time with Chris D, he’s most likely going to be a non-factor, but he has shown some progression.
As a hitter, he’s an awful lot like Pedro Feliz. Maybe a little behind Pedro’s pace through age 24. But he doesn’t have Pedro’s glove, which was the only good thing about Pedro.
Peter Happy with a little more power and much less glove, sounds right to me. Feliz was remarkably consistent with the HRs – 16 in 95 games in 2003, then 22, 20, 22, 20 for the rest of his Gints career. Why so many pitchers decide to throw him a fastball for those, we’ll never know…
He started out Richmond like a house on fire, then slumped. Most likely pitchers adjusted to him and then brutalized him. So yeah, he should repeat. The reasons for Fresno are his age and a pump the stats strategy, I agree he’s barely a prospect but on the other hand he hits the ball really hard when he makes contact. So he toils away like Brett Pill and hopes for something similar? I’m curious about those 13 errors in Richmond, whether most of them were throwing errors specifically. He’s supposed to not be a bad defensive 3B.
I’ll go with Rosin here again. Big workhorse of a guy with a well above-average FB that he can move around the strike zone. Until I hear differently, I’m going to assume that the disappointing parts of his 2011 season can be chalked up to the Giants trying to tweak his mechanics and him working on his secondary pitches. Rosin came on strong in the 2nd half of the season then he was one of the few pitchers in the entire AZ Fall League that put up good numbers – although it was only over 12.2 innings.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I don’t see the argument for Rosin over Mendoza. Rosin’s just about 3 years older and only a level higher. He supposedly had great control in college, but it didn’t really show up in A ball, while Mendoza has a very solid resume of outstanding control in his three year pro career (career 1.7 bb/9). Reports on their fastball’s are quite similar, though at a skinny 19 Mendoza would seem to have more physical projection left (indeed, I assume the leap that his K rate took last year may well have been tied to increased velocity), and while both seem to have inconsistent breaking pitches, youth is again on Mendoza’s side. Also, while Rosin may get another shot at starting, his first attempt was quite poor, while Mendoza has been a starter his whole career and done pretty well at it.
Other than height, what does Rosin have over Lorenzo?
He’s a big ol’ Minnesota farm boy! That counts for something in addition to the height.
Mendoza’s North West adventure looks pretty good except for the hits. Does anybody know his splits first half/second half? Did he get tired at the end? I imagine at 5’10 he’ll have durability concerns.
Even with the hits his WHIP was only 1.27 and generally defense is pretty poor at that level. His FIP was 2.93, so I wouldn’t be worried about the hits at that level, and no, I didn’t see that he was tiring toward the end, though he did definitely have good outings and poor outings interspersed. That was particularly true of the strikeout numbers, so there was no doubt inconsistencies plaguing him a bit that he’ll have to smooth out.
Hence the bewilderment...
He has the fewest votes on the board.
+1
I’m with Roger here. Age relative to League and starter > reliever trumps 12 innings in AFL.
Hmm.... This is a study I'd like to see:
Distribution of age relative to league for successful major leaguers broken down by:
(1) League,
(2) prep vs. college
(3) draft-age
In other words, For all major leaguers with at least 10 WAR, what was the distribution of their age during the seasons they were in the PCL? the EL? the CAL? the SAL? the NWL?
What if you broke apart the distributions by prep vs. college? What if you broke it apart by signing age? The latter distinguished between 20 y.o. college vs. 22 y.o. college players and 16 IFA’s vs. 19 y.o prep stars.
Additionally,
what about players with 5 WAR in their first 6 seasons? 15 WAR? 20 WAR?
I think either Dominguez or Rosin works here
I’m voting Dominguez because power is so scarce in our system.
I'm just a simple Giants fan trying to make my way in the universe.
by Tim Lincecum's Bong on Jan 9, 2012 11:13 PM PST reply actions
That's another argument I don't understand...
Why does the scarcity of power give him a better chance of getting to the majors or becoming a viable major leaguer? I don’t see how the scarcity of power in the minors should affect the grading or rating of a prospect with or without power.
if there was a power hitter playing for Fresno last year who had a chance of hitting the majors this year or next, we would be real excited about him. But there is not. so we are a wee bit excited about Chris D. Yes it’s a long shot. As are his dingers.
Marvin Barrios, come on I'll show you your bedroom. Don't stay on the phone too long to Panama, please.
if there was a power hitter playing for Fresno last year who had a chance of hitting the majors this year or next,
Brett Pill says hi!
by free f.p. #14 on Jan 10, 2012 12:33 PM PST up reply actions
and Pill is likely on the ML roster,
and no longer on lists like this at all.
Marvin Barrios, come on I'll show you your bedroom. Don't stay on the phone too long to Panama, please.
by foothillsfan on Jan 10, 2012 4:52 PM PST up reply actions
Voted for Mendoza
Now I’m regretting it, because I’d have voted for Rosin if I knew he had the best chance of preventing a Domingerz victory.
The other day Nivra said it would be interesting to know the historical development path (age vs. league) of productive major league players. So here’s a start at looking at that. I took all the players who’ve amassed over 10 career fWAR, separated them into groups based on average WAR per year (using their major league ST as the divisor), and then looked at the average age of their first season at each level (using a minimum of 100 PA or 20IP). I used BRef’s season age as a straight number, rather than trying to break down exact ages of each player (which is nearly impossible to do anyway), so there’s a little wiggle room in the ages. And of course, there just aren’t that many players in each of these groups which makes everything somewhat SSS, but regardless, here’s the results.
Position Players 1-1.9 WAR per year (21 players)
Drafted: 15 (71%). College: 11, HS: 4
Age at Signing: 19.5
Rk Ball 19.0
A- 20.5
A 20.2
A+ 21.1
AA 22.1
AAA 23.1
MLB 24.1
Position Players 2-2.9 WAR per year (40 players)
Drafted: 30 (75%), 12 College, 15 HS, 3 JC
Avg. Age at Signing: 18.8
Rk 18.6
A- 19.9
A 20.2
A+ 21.1
AA 21.8
AAA 22.9
MLB 23.5
Position Players 3-3.9 WAR per year (31 players)
Drafted: 26 (84%), 13 College, 12 HS, 1 JC
Avg. Age at Signing 19.1
Rk 17.9
A- 20.4
A 20.0
A+ 20.9
AA 21.5
AAA 22.4
MLB 23.0
Position Player 4+ WAR per yr (28 players
Drafted: 22 (79%) 9 College, 13 HS
Ave Age at Signing: 18.7
Rk 17.7
A- 20.0
A 19.5
A+ 20.4
AA 21.1
AAA 22.1
MLB 22.5
Pitchers 1-1.9 WAR per yr (13 players)
Drafted: 10 (79%), 5 College, 5 HS
Signing: 18.8
Rk 18.3
A- 21.0
A 20.4
A+ 21.6
AA 21.6
AAA 22.2
MLB 23.1
Pitchers 2-2.9 WAR per yr (25 players)
Drafted: 17 (68%), 7 College, 8 HS, 2 JC
Signing: 19.0
Rk 18.6
A- 19.8
A 19.9
A+ 20.9
AA 21.8
AAA 22.7
MLB 23.0
Pitchers 3-3.9 WAR per yr (16)
Drafted: 13 (81%), 4 College, 9 HS
Signing: 18.6
Rk 18.0
A- 19.3
A 19.4
A+ 20.4
AA 20.7
AAA 21.6
MLB 22.1
Pitchers 4+ WAR Per Yr (20 Players)
Drafted: 17 (85%), 9 College, 8 HS
Signing: 19.0
Rk 17.7
A- 19.1
A 19.6
A+ 20.4
AA 20.8
AAA 21.9
MLB 21.9
Two most obvious trends: pitchers were developed somewhat younger than position players (get ‘em up there before their arms fall off?); and as you move upward thru more productive groups of players, you’re also consistently getting younger players.
Another important note: virtually nobody in these groups of players performed at every level (at the minimums I set) going up, and the lowest three levels in particular (along with AAA) saw the least participation. I’d guess that 4 levels is about the average for these players.
Participation per level for position players: Rk (48%), A- (42%), A (75%) A+ (81%) AA (95%) AAA (86%).
Participation per level for pitchers: Rk (54%), A- (32%), A (61%), A+ (80%), AA (95%), AAA (76%)
And a last note: Tim Lincecum at 6.73 Wins/year is right now the most productive active pitcher in baseball by quite a lot. The next guys at the list are all averaging a full Win less than our Timmy: Roy Halladay (5.79), Clayton Kershaw (5.51), Verlander (5.4), Felix Hernandez (5.4). Yeah, Timmy!
by Roger on Jan 11, 2012 2:00 PM PST reply actions 5 recs
Good work Roger!
To put this to work in outr current debate (Rosin vs. Dominguez), we see that the advantage goes to Rosin.
In 2011, Dominguez played half the year in AA (we’ll give him full credit) starting at the age of 24.7.
The lowest level position players on Roger’s list (1-1.9 WAR) played in AA at the aveage age of 22.1.
That’s a 2.6 year differential (to the worse side) against Dominguez
In 2011, Rosin played the full year in A- ball starting at the age of 22.5.
The lowest level pithcers on Roger’s list (1-1.9 WAR) played in A- ball at the aveage age of 21.0.
That’s a 1.5 year differential (to the worse side) against Rosin.
I have to imagine that a graph of the probability of a player having a greater than 1.0 WAR yearly average in the pros gets much worse the further a player gets away from the norm – in other words it gets geometrically worse instead of moving in a straight line. If true, that would make Rosin’s advantage even more stark.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Is that 24.7 and 22.5 on a Year.12Month notation, or regular decimal places? I have a feeling Rogers are regular 10 digit decimals, not 12.
Bye Travis and thanks for 2010! Good luck with the Brewers!
Oops
Good catch. I assumed that Roger was using a decimal point system, but I neglected to convert my “year.month” numbers when doing my subtractions. Roger also pointed out that I wrongly used the A- average age for Rosin when he was actually in the Sally – which is an A level league. Taking both of those errors into account here are the correct figures:
For the 2011 seaon there’s a 2.5 year differential against Dominguez vs. a 2.0 year differential against Rosin.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
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