FanPost

Giants Starting Pitching Comparables

It seems like today there are many different ways to evaluate starting pitchers, whether they be with such modern stats as WAR, FIP, xFIP or SIERA or one of the other hipster stats out there. Many of you know how good of a rotation the Giants have. A solid one. I have put together another way of looking at how good a starting pitcher is. Not with a fancy stat that will score you 50 points double word in scrabble but with a list of comparables to other starting pitchers throughout the league based on three of the more important pitcher skilled stats. Ever thought who Matt Cain's MLB clone is? Look no further. Here, I put before you a look at some of the top comparables to the Giants top starting pitchers: Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Ryan Vogelsong and Barry Zito as per the MLB Depth Charts website.

In this exercise I used 2010-2011 data, looking at the skilled stats of K/9, BB/9 and GB/FB, while coming up with a similarity score based on these three stats for each Giants starting pitcher. The cutoff was having pitched at least 150 IP as a starter (exception for Matt Moore and Stephen Strasburg, Fans Projections FG) over the last two years. Here is the top 25 list for each Giants starter. There is some bias when comparing NL pitchers with AL pitchers due to the slightly inflated strikeout rate for NL pitchers who don't have to pitch to a DH, so feel free to make a mental adjustment for those pitchers. If you wanted to take something like this to the next level, you could look at age, contract status, handedness etc... but I've chosen to look at these three stats which are highly controlled by a pitchers skill level.

The first thing that will likely catch your eye, besides the beautifully laid out tables is the great numbers that Madison Bumgarner has put up. With a little more of a sample size of innings pitched, Bumgarner may shortly be thought of the Giants #2 pitcher ahead of Matt Cain. So contract status and age aside, which starting five would you expect to do better (Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, Vogelsong, Zito) or their clones of (Lester, Marcum, Shields, Jackson and Davies)?

Rank Name K/9 BB/9 GB/FB Name K/9 BB/9 GB/FB
Tim Lincecum 9.45 3.40 1.50 Matt Cain 7.20 2.51 0.91
1 Jon Lester 9.17 3.56 1.65 Shaun Marcum 7.34 2.27 0.88
2 Yovani Gallardo 9.34 3.07 1.29 Daniel Hudson 7.18 2.18 0.98
3 Matt Moore 9.25 3.00 1.13 Jake Peavy 7.59 2.43 0.99
4 Clayton Kershaw 9.46 2.78 1.04 John Danks 6.97 2.72 1.18
5 Ubaldo Jimenez 8.65 3.73 1.41 Roy Oswalt 7.34 2.27 1.25
6 Francisco Liriano 8.62 3.64 1.66 Gavin Floyd 7.15 2.44 1.36
7 Bud Norris 8.85 3.89 1.06 Bartolo Colon 7.18 2.18 1.24
8 Ryan Dempster 8.6 3.62 1.27 Ervin Santana 6.92 2.89 0.98
9 Michael Pineda 9.11 2.89 0.81 Javier Vazquez 7.24 2.97 0.74
10 Mat Latos 8.88 2.66 1.07 Travis Wood 6.85 2.83 0.68
11 Josh Johnson 8.93 2.51 1.39 Joe Blanton 6.97 2.15 1.22
12 David Price 8.44 2.96 1.16 Ted Lilly 7.55 2.21 0.64
13 Tommy Hanson 8.52 2.76 0.99 Alexi Ogando 6.68 2.32 0.92
14 Justin Verlander 8.88 2.42 0.98 Homer Bailey 7.69 2.73 1.07
15 Anibal Sanchez 8.26 3.08 1.21 Brett Myers 6.93 2.53 1.41
16 Brandon Morrow 10.53 3.73 0.91 Phil Hughes 6.88 2.96 0.76
17 Felipe Paulino 8.37 3.97 1.13 Hiroki Kuroda 7.23 2.19 1.41
18 Stephen Strasburg 9.75 2.15 1.35 Jordan Zimmermann 7.07 1.92 0.99
19 Zack Greinke 8.78 2.30 1.37 Jeff Niemann 6.79 2.86 1.21
20 Jorge de la Rosa 8.22 3.84 1.55 Matt Garza 7.77 2.80 1.04
21 Felix Hernandez 8.45 2.55 1.72 Ricky Nolasco 7.3 1.91 1.22
22 Brandon Beachy 10.57 3.04 0.77 Chris Capuano 7.88 2.61 1.05
23 Max Scherzer 8.25 2.90 1.02 Johan Santana 6.51 2.49 0.76
24 Gio Gonzalez 8.23 4.09 1.40 Chris Carpenter 7.05 2.25 1.59
25 Cole Hamels 8.62 2.24 1.37 Ian Kennedy 7.92 2.70 0.91

Rank Name K/9 BB/9 GB/FB Name K/9 BB/9 GB/FB
Madison Bumgarner 7.90 2.05 1.30 Ryan Vogelsong 6.99 3.14 1.34
1 James Shields 8.21 2.29 1.18 Edwin Jackson 7.26 3.09 1.47
2 Dan Haren 7.76 1.66 1.05 Jeff Niemann 6.79 2.86 1.21
3 Scott Baker 7.99 2.24 0.80 Chris Narveson 7.25 3.3 1.05
4 Jake Peavy 7.59 2.43 0.99 Ervin Santana 6.92 2.89 0.98
5 CC Sabathia 8.09 2.56 1.51 John Danks 6.97 2.72 1.18
6 Adam Wainwright 8.32 2.19 1.68 Aaron Harang 6.6 3.03 0.96
7 Roy Oswalt 7.34 2.27 1.25 Carlos Carrasco 6.54 2.87 1.56
8 Chris Capuano 7.88 2.61 1.05 Brett Myers 6.93 2.53 1.41
9 Ricky Nolasco 7.3 1.91 1.22 Phil Hughes 6.88 2.96 0.76
10 Hiroki Kuroda 7.23 2.19 1.41 Derek Holland 7.61 3.20 1.30
11 Shaun Marcum 7.34 2.27 0.88 Ricky Romero 7.28 3.35 1.90
12 Bartolo Colon 7.18 2.18 1.24 Javier Vazquez 7.24 2.97 0.74
13 Cole Hamels 8.62 2.24 1.37 John Lackey 6.34 3.07 1.18
14 Homer Bailey 7.69 2.73 1.07 Gavin Floyd 7.15 2.44 1.36
15 Josh Beckett 8.17 2.72 1.09 Brian Matusz 7.23 3.47 0.74
16 Ian Kennedy 7.92 2.70 0.91 Wade LeBlanc 6.47 3.15 0.82
17 Ted Lilly 7.55 2.21 0.64 Travis Wood 6.85 2.83 0.68
18 Daniel Hudson 7.18 2.18 0.98 Clay Buchholz 6.32 3.44 1.50
19 Jered Weaver 8.43 2.15 0.71 Johnny Cueto 6.37 2.71 1.35
20 Matt Garza 7.77 2.80 1.04 Jaime Garcia 7.24 2.87 2.03
21 Gavin Floyd 7.15 2.44 1.36 Matt Cain 7.2 2.51 0.91
22 Felix Hernandez 8.45 2.55 1.72 Randy Wells 6.17 3.00 1.28
23 Colby Lewis 8.19 2.71 0.77 Chad Billingsley 7.66 3.63 1.44
24 Jordan Zimmermann 7.07 1.92 0.99 Homer Bailey 7.69 2.73 1.07
25 Zack Greinke 8.78 2.30 1.37 Brett Cecil 6.2 2.92 1.03

Rank Name K/9 BB/9 GB/FB
Barry Zito 6.46 3.74 0.84
1 Kyle Davies 6.47 3.89 0.98
2 Wade LeBlanc 6.47 3.15 0.82
3 Dillon Gee 6.04 3.95 1.36
4 Clayton Richard 6.15 3.46 1.42
5 Aaron Harang 6.6 3.03 0.96
6 Clay Buchholz 6.32 3.44 1.50
7 John Lackey 6.34 3.07 1.18
8 Jeremy Hellickson 5.93 3.18 0.79
9 Carlos Zambrano 7.1 4.11 1.13
10 Brian Matusz 7.23 3.47 0.74
11 Randy Wolf 5.8 3.22 0.94
12 Jeremy Bonderman 5.88 3.18 1.14
13 Bruce Chen 5.85 3.12 0.74
14 Jake Arrieta 5.94 4.38 1.14
15 Brett Cecil 6.2 2.92 1.03
16 Phil Hughes 6.88 2.96 0.76
17 Randy Wells 6.17 3.00 1.28
18 Jon Garland 5.81 3.79 1.50
19 Chris Narveson 7.25 3.30 1.05
20 Ryan Vogelsong 6.99 3.14 1.34
21 Ervin Santana 6.92 2.89 0.98
22 Jason Hammel 6.05 2.99 1.36
23 Travis Wood 6.85 2.83 0.68
24 Jeff Niemann 6.79 2.86 1.21
25 Wade Davis 5.57 3.20 0.87

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join McCovey Chronicles

You must be a member of McCovey Chronicles to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at McCovey Chronicles. You should read them.

Join McCovey Chronicles

You must be a member of McCovey Chronicles to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at McCovey Chronicles. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker