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The Blind Baseball Scout II

In Part 2 of The Blind Baseball scout, we’ll look at how Giants prospects from 2009 & 2010 have stacked up according to P-Sabr with some league wide and BBA (Baseball America) comparisons. We’ll take a look at three leagues, The Sally, California and Eastern Leagues.

First the Sally League in 2009. Early returns are not good on the hitting prospects here, the league has produced only 7 Major League hitters (of those qualified for P-Sabr) and only one of those has a positive O-WAR (Ryan Lavarnway - #23 in P-Sabr rankings) as of yet. It’s far too early too pass judgment, but the eye test doesn’t seem to offer much hope either. Both P-Sabr and BBA agreed that the recently traded Derrick Norris was the best hitting prospect in the league, which even Billy Beane would probably admit has some major question marks. Two of P-Sabr’s top ten hitters have made it to the show (Jordan Pacheco and Steve Lombardozzi), while Tim Federowicz from BBA’s top list (DNQ in P-Sabr) has made it.

P-SABR

P-SABR Score

1

Derek Norris

42

2

Travis d'Arnaud

29

3

Anthony Gose*

29

4

Corban Joseph

28

5

Jordan Pacheco

27

6

Steve Lombardozzi

27

7

Scott Robinson

20

8

Jose Pirela

16

9

Jay Austin*

14

It wasn’t a pretty year for Giants hitters either. Only one current Giants prospect (Ehire Adrianza) had a P-Sabr score (-4) above the mean of –31.38. His score was good, for an overall ranking of #21. Other current prospects Charlie Culberson (P-Sabr score –38, ranking #60) and Wendell Fairley (-78, #88) placed below the mean.

Lg/Year

Giants

P-Sabr Score

Sally-2009

Charlie Culberson

-38

Sally-2009

Ehire Adrianza

-4

Sally-2009

Wendell Fairley

-78

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In the Sally League 2010 rankings, there is a consensus on 2 of the top three prospects in P-Sabr and BBA rankings. They both agreed that Jonathan Singleton and Nolan Arenado were among the three best hitting prospects in the league, but P-Sabr pulled off a short-term coup finding Jose Altuve (one of only three eligible players to make the show thus far) as the second best prospect in the league. Altuve missed BBA’s rankings altogether. This top ten represents the only players with positive P-Sabr Scores in the league.

P-SABR

P-Sabr Score

1

Jonathan Singleton*

68

2

Jose Altuve

51

3

Nolan Arenado

47

4

J.P. Ramirez*

32

5

J.D. Martinez

32

6

Jake Goebbert*

13

7

Cesar Puello

13

8

Chris McGuiness*

13

9

Eury Perez

9

10

Jefry Marte

5

As for Giants prospects, all four relevant players scored above the P-Sabr mean score of –36.19. Of note, Ryan Cavan just missed out on the top ten, tied for eleventh in the rankings, and the only player to make BBA’s top list had the worst P-Sabr score of all Giants, Chris Dominguez. Liles ranked #20, Joseph #43 and Dominguez #45.

Lg/Year

Giants

P-Sabr Score

Sally 2010

Ryan Cavan

0

Sally 2010

Nick Liles

-12

Sally 2010

Tommy Joseph

-24

Sally 2010

Chris Dominguez

-25

Now for a look at the Cal league 2009. 20 of all qualified players have gone to play MLB, 8 of those players were members of BBA’s top 12 Cal League hitting prospects, and 6 of those made the P-Sabr top 13. BBA liked the Giants prospects this year who placed four players in the BBA top list, while P-Sabr only had 2. This is also the year that Buster Posey ranked at the top of BBA’s chart, and to this point he’s clearly the best player to come out of the league in 2009. In this instance showed P-Sabr once again showed its weakness in projecting catchers and ranked Buster as only the 6th best prospect in the league.

P-SABR

P-Sabr score

1

Alex Liddi

74

2

Thomas Neal

70

3

Tyson Gillies

66

4

Trayvon Robinson

50

5

Koby Clemens

35

6

Buster Posey

31

7

Matthew Sweeney

27

8

Logan Forsythe

20

9

James Darnell

12

10

Grant Desme

12

11

Scott Van Slyke

11

12

James McOwen

10

13

Jason Castro

10

Of the 8 Giants ranked, 6 ranked above the P-Sabr mean of -41.94. I’ve included Brian Bocock, because hey – He’s Brian Bocock! He’s the man with the 94th worst offensive performance in the Cal League 2009 according to P-Sabr.

Lg/Year

Giants

P-Sabr Score

Cal 2009

Thomas Neal

70

Cal 2009

Buster Posey

31

Cal 2009

Conor Gillaspie

6

Cal 2009

Nick Noonan

-6

Cal 2009

Roger Kieschnick

-11

Cal 2009

Darren Ford

-11

Cal 2009

Angel Villalona

-42

Cal 2009

Brian Bocock

-110

From the 2010 Cal league, 8 qualifying players have made the show thus far, but this does not include Mike Trout, who BBA considered the best prospect in the league as well as all of baseball. Three of BBA’s top hitters, including Trout have made the Majors as have three of P-Sabr’s. On both lists are Paul Goldschmidt and Brandon Belt, but P-Sabr concluded that the best prospect was Kyle Seager, who didn’t appear in BBA’s rankings.

Rank

P-SABR

P-Sabr Score

1

Kyle Seager

70

2

Stephen Parker

57

3

Johermyn Chavez

42

4

Brandon Belt*

42

5

Grant Green

41

6

Daniel Robertson

38

7

Cole Figueroa

31

8

Charlie Culberson

28

9

Vincent Belnome

25

10

Paul Goldschmidt

25

11

Rich Poythress

25

12

Marc Krauss

19

13

Cody Decker

17

14

Davis Stoneburner

17

15

Juan Perez

16

It was a good year for the San Jose Giants in 2010 and 6 of the 8 players who qualified finished with a P-Sabr score above the Mean of -39.71.

Lg/Year

Giants

P-Sabr Score

Cal 2010

Brandon Belt*

42

Cal 2010

Charlie Culberson

28

Cal 2010

Juan Perez

16

Cal 2010

Francisco Peguero

2

Cal 2010

Johnny Monell

-6

Cal 2010

Jose Flores

-20

Cal 2010

Ehire Adrianza

-42

Cal 2010

Wendell Fairley

-65

The Eastern League of 2009 has produced 30 players who have gone on to play in the majors. This does not include 8 of the 12 players in BBA’s top rankings who did not qualify for the P-Sabr system. This included some very good young players including Pedro Alvarez, Jesus Montero, Dominic Brown, Wilson Ramos, Ike Davis, Jose Tabata, Scott Sizemore, and Brandon Snyder. Nevertheless, the top 6 players found by P-Sabr have gone on to see time in the majors.

Rank

P-SABR

P-Sabr Score

1

Michael Taylor

55

2

Carlos Santana

44

3

Eduardo Nunez

40

4

Ruben Tejada

38

5

Josh Thole

38

6

Ryan Kalish*

32

7

Reegie Corona

25

8

Nick Weglarz*

24

9

Rene Tosoni

20

10

Alex Avila

19

11

Josh Reddick

18

12

David Cooper*

15

13

Ryan Strieby

12

14

Brock Bond

7

15

Brett Pill

3

It was a good year for Major league prospects, but not necessarily Giants prospects. Of the 5 relevant Giants, three had a P-Sabr score above the League mean of –40.9, but the shine is all but gone on all save 2 of them.

Lg/Year

Giants

P-Sabr Score

EL 2009

Brock Bond

7

EL 2009

Brett Pill

3

EL 2009

Mike McBryde

-11

EL 2009

Eddy Martinez-Esteve

-15

EL 2009

Brandon Crawford

-50

The Eastern League of 2010 thus far has seen an incredible 35 P-Sabr qualified players who have gone on to see Major League time. That says something of the depth of the league, but the jury is still out on the top tier talent. Nine of the top ten players ranked by BBA have gone on to see Major League time, most notably Brandon Belt, who did not qualify for P-Sabr and Dominic Brown was ranked number 1 by both systems. Eight of the top Eleven P-Sabr ranked players have seen action in the show and at this point the best player found by P-Sabr not ranked by BBA seems to be Ben Revere.

Rank

P-SABR

P-Sabr Score

1

Domonic Brown*

58

2

Brandon Laird

33

3

Chris Marrero

31

4

Thomas Neal

29

5

Che-Hsuan Lin

26

6

Lonnie Chisenhall

26

7

Anthony Rizzo*

25

8

Yamaico Navarro

25

9

Kirk Nieuwenhuis

20

10

Ben Revere

20

11

Jason Kipnis

19

12

Matt Rizzotti*

19

Only two Giants ranked above the league mean P-Sabr score of –40.94, and the best rated Giant is now an Indian.

Lg/Year

Giants

P-Sabr Score

EL 2010

Thomas Neal

29

EL 2010

Conor Gillaspie

-6

EL 2010

Darren Ford

-57

EL 2010

Brandon Crawford

-60

EL 2010

Nick Noonan

-73

Next week – 2011.



This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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