Still Too Early 2012 MLB Standings Projection
I swiped this from BBTF this morning. Check out the NL West projections.
4 months ago
xanthan
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THREE WAY TIE FOR FIRST
Obviously any links in the above post are probably NSFW
The baseball gods do not always punish the wicked but they will not just allow people to spit in their faces -- Joe Posnanski
Kudos, You are a sick, sick man, but you are very good at it -- wcw
Other than the Reds winning the Central by 5 games, this seems to pass the eyeball test.
[Poorly Wrought THING] is what Brian Sabean would have made if he were a [THING-maker] instead of a MLB GM
Not so much over in the AL.
Any projection that thinks the Athletics improved (significantly!) this offseason is probably very flawed.
by ThirteenOfTwo on Jan 31, 2012 1:57 PM PST up reply actions
I love SG
Don't think he can cut it in the bigs? Brock Bond will be the bigger man and walk walk walk away.
How do the Giants end up with the lowest playoff% in a three-way tie?
Seems like all those teams should have the same playoff%.
Colorado’s getting really overrated here; their entire team is questionable save Tulowitzki and Gonzalez. Hell, given Tulowitzki’s injury issues and Gonzalez’ iffy start last year, even they aren’t as solid as one might like. Their rotation isn’t pretty either – Chacin’s a good pitcher, but after that things get frightening. They traded Street, who wasn’t necessary but gave them depth. Really, I’m more afraid of LA and SD than them – they’re a team that’s trying to get good years out of a lot of players that shouldn’t be counted on.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Maybe runs scored is a tiebreaker?
2010 World Series Champions!
Adopted 'nephew' to the ever avuncular and always awesome Jon Miller
by Johnny Disaster on Jan 30, 2012 5:19 PM PST up reply actions
I totally agree with you re Colorado. I don’t get the love. And their off season has been really befuddling. When you trade for pitchers, and their quote to the newspaper is: “gee I’m really going to have to change the way I pitch to succeed there because normally I’m pretty much of a fly ball pitcher” — that’s NOT GOOD. And while only one of the guy’s they traded for this winter actually said that, more than one of them could have. And Jamie Moyer? In Colorado? Really?
I would agree
I think Colorado will be rather awful next year. I think LA and SD will be awful too.
Meanwhile, I think AZ and our guys will be neck and neck, and actually quite good teams. I think AZ will come to earth a little bit, and SF won’t be breaking all-time hitting in RISP records. I think both teams can win 90+ games.
I think the better “cripple killer” between AZ and SF will win the division; whatever team has a better intra-division record with the other four opponents will probably put it away. If LA/COL/SD could fight to a .500 record with either AZ or SF, I think that could make the difference.
LOL A's
There’s no way the A’s even sniff 82 wins with the way that Beane has deliberately broken up the pitching staff.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
LOL AAA's
I think avoiding 100 losses will be an accomplishment. That team will be one of the worst that franchise has ever seen.
Id even think that 110+ losses is possible, if not likely.
WC 2
That starts this year…?
Irrational Conor Gillaspie fanboy.
I might have been living under a rock… the 2nd wild card for each league has been finalized?
Proud adopted parent of the ball dudes, who have grounded into 109 fewer double plays than the Giants.
No official announcement on WC 2.
Not yet anyway, but I was just curious about how it would work so I included the calculations for it.
Selig's pushing it for 2012
But nothing’s definite. I think it will end up happening in 2012, though.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Seems inevitable
Doesn´t sound likely for 2012, however.
A man who carries a cat by the tail learns something he can learn in no other way. - SLC
Call me a party pooper, but I feel this is overly optimistic for the Giants.
My adopted Giant, the young Reinier Roibal
I would call it slightly pessimistic
We won 86 games last year despite all the things that went wrong. Arizona hasn’t gotten much better – Cahill’s an upgrade, but not an enormous one. Colorado probably got worse with losing Jiminez and Iannetta and Stewart – Cuddyer is a solid player but nothing special, and I wouldn’t expect the world from Scutaro. The Dodgers signed every mediocre infielder they could find and lost Kuroda, so I’m not too worried about them. San Diego lost Latos which is a net loss for 2012 even if it’s a better long-term decision.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Yeah
I actually think the Giants are a teensy bit underrated going into this season. Doesn’t change my fury at ownership for how this offseason has progressed, but I think that even by standing (mostly) pat, it’s not crazy to think the Giants could get to 90 wins… in fact, I think I’d set the over/under around 88
Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...
by Smoke on the Water on Feb 1, 2012 6:43 PM PST up reply actions
I agree
The 2012 Giants are one of the stronger teams in the NL. Of course, terrible things can happen, but their rotation and bullpen should both be in the Top 3 in runs allowed, and with a full year of Buster and no guys providing negative value, I think that 90 wins is a pretty safe over-under.
Seriously, we had a bunch of position players provide a cumulative total loss of -5 bWAR… not playing those guys and having another guy besides Panda produce more than 2 WAR should account for a pretty large swing. I think we are all traumatized, but the 2011 offense was traumatizing. It was ungodly horrible. The 2012 squadron of position players should be significantly better.
I lean towards the optimistic side, but that’s because I think we have a good, young team and in a couple years will be free of dead weight contracts. I believe the Giants will win 94 games next year. You heard it here first.
The Marlin's look to me like a team that could really challenge the Phillies. These projections still have them as Meh.
Do these guys pay attention!
They seem pretty meh to me. I’d believe the Nats could challenge Philadelphia before I’d believe Florida.
If they get a good year from Nolasco and Ramirez rebounds
They could be pretty dangerous. With Josh Johnson back the rotation is deep and good (TWSS) and the lineup is the same. Johnson/Buerhle/Sanchez/Nolasco/Zambrano and a lineup including Reyes, Ramirez, Sanchez, Coghlin, Stanton, and Morrison. I think that’s a better offense than Philly considering age and injuries and probably the best in the division unless Werth has a huge year. The bullpen is a question, but that’s a good biggest problem to have.
I’m not too happy about the Nats’ rotation or lineup though. They need Strasburg to come back strong (which I think he will, but it’s still scary) and after Gonzalez their rotation isn’t great. Even he’s a bit iffy with the walk totals. Not to mention Werth NEEDS to come back, Morse NEEDS to keep going, Zimmerman NEEDS to come back (after injury), LaRoche NEEDS to come back, etc. Danny Espinosa was their WAR leader (including pitching) last year at 3.5 – they can’t contend with that little production from their most valuable player.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Strasburg returning is a little scary, but if you told me that one of Strasburg or Johnson had an injury plagued year in 2012, I’d have to assume it was Johnson. And I’m not sure what Zimmermann needs to do to prove he’s back if posting a 3.4 WAR and 3.16 FIP in 160 IP last year didn’t do it. I think the Nats staff on the whole can matchup pretty well with the Marlins. By WAR they were only slightly worse last year and they added both Strasburg and Gonzalez to that.
I mean I’m not predicting a Nats playoff push in 2012 by any means though I do think they’re likely to take a step forward. I just see a really bad Marlins team that added two very good players but didn’t do anything to address a lot of other problems.
Zimmerman, not Zimmermann
Ryan, not Jordan.
The 2011 Marlins finished last, but they were the best last-place team in the majors, played in the same division as the best team in the majors, and lost their best pitcher and best hitter to a combination of injuries and suck. They signed one of the better players in the division away from a rival and their team in general is mostly very young. I’m not sure they’ll beat Philadelphia and/or Atlanta, but they should at least be contending for the wild card if not the division. I don’t see the Nats there yet – they need a 1B and CF, some rotation depth, and maybe a bullpen arm. More than that, though, they need someone they can count on to be an impact player. Strasburg and Zimmerman(n) have dealt with injuries, Werth was awful, Morse is a late-bloomer.
The Nats were a .500 team last year, which is more than the Marlins can say. But I don’t think bringing in Gonzalez is as big as they do (his walk totals make me think Oliver Perez/Jonathan Sanchez) and I think the Marlins made a lot of major improvements to a team that was already better than last year’s showing.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
I definitely project the Giants around 83 wins
But I think at least one, if not two, NL West teams will surpass that.
The most delightful ecumenical contradiction in nomenclature.
Dursh nerf darsh narf. Poop.
Sorry, 85.
The most delightful ecumenical contradiction in nomenclature.
Dursh nerf darsh narf. Poop.
This seems quite weird.
Ross on Halladay: "I’d tried everything against him…going the other way, taking pitches, trying to walk…and nothing worked. I’d never tried going up there and just trying to hit a home run off him."
My boy has mad hops
I rant on Twitter
Marcel is a pretty simple projection system, using just 3 years of data. An analysis on Fangraphs showed that Marcel´s 2011 projections ended up being one of the least accurate sets. These division predictions are useful in that they show pretty accurately which races will be close and which will be landslides, but I wouldn´t put much stock in differences of less than 5%.
A man who carries a cat by the tail learns something he can learn in no other way. - SLC
NL worst
#Amiright
"I dont always hit home runs, but when I do, I prefer World Series winning home runs"
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