Community Prospect List #41
by free f.p. #14 on Jan 29, 2012 7:31 PM PST
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PrintFuentes wins. Here's the poll for spot #41. This poll will be open until 7pm PST tomorrow, January 30th.
Please do not rec these posts. We don't want them to clutter up the recommended FanPosts section.
The list so far:
1. Gary Brown
2. Joe Panik
3. Tommy Joseph
4a. Eric Surkamp
4b. Heath Hembree
7. Andrew Susac
9. Kyle Crick
10. Ehire Adrianza
11. Josh Osich
12. Clayton Blackburn
13. Adalberto Mejia
14. Adam Duvall
15. Conor Gillaspie
16. Ricky Oropesa
17. Jarrett Parker
18a. Chuckie Jones
18b. Mike Kickham
20. Kendry Flores
21. Jacob Dunnington
22. Angel Villalona
23. Charlie Culberson
24. Jesus Galindo
25. Seth Rosin
26. Chris Dominguez
27. Brett Bochy
28. Ryan Cavan
29. Shawn Payne
30. Hector Correa
31. Lorenzo Mendoza
32. Joan Gregorio
33. Rafael Rodriguez
34. Chris Marlowe
35. Enmanuel De Jesus
36. Demondre Arnold
37. Kelby Tomlinson
38. Roger Kieschnick
39. Dan Otero
40. Leonardo Fuentes
The player's first name links to his Baseball Cube profile page, and his last name links to his Fangraphs profile page.
Jean Delgado (His first name is his BB-Ref profile, his BC profile only showed fielding stats.)
Kentrell Hill
Carlos (Eric) Valdez
If you want to see any names added to the poll, mention them in the comments. Vote away!
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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Law>Dunning>Heston
Adoptive father of 18th round draft pick and future ace, BRANDON ALLEN
by Nnamdi Asomugha on Jan 29, 2012 8:21 PM PST reply actions
Law info
Law throws a good curveball, and slider and an above-average fastball (which sits 90-92 mph and has touched 93). Law’s father, Joe Law, reached AAA in the minors and helped teach Derek how pitch. Derek was drafted out of a Pittsburgh-area high school in the late rounds of the 2009 draft (by the Rangers), but he opted to go the JuCo route at Miami-Dade Community College. He was starter/reliever in 2010 then only a starter in 2011. I imagine that the Giants might have first taken notice of him when they started scouting his more famous teammate and 2011 first round draftee, Brian Goodwin, Prior to the 2011 draft. Law compiled eye-popping stats as a starter in 2011:
IP=92, ERA=2.35, K=121, BB=16, K/9=11.8, BB/9=1.6, K/BB=7.6
Law got in 15 games for the Scottsdale team in the AZL last summer (all short relief appearances) with outstanding stats:
IP=18, WHIP=1.00, H=16, K=19, BB=2, ERA=2.35 in 92 innings for K/9=9.5, BB/9=1.0, K/BB=9.5, BABIP=.320, GO/AO=2.5
Scouts have been a bit cautious with their assessments of him due to his funky delivery (some think it will make him injury-prone), but they do seem to really like his stuff. Law is young for an experienced college pitcher (he’ll be 21.6 when the regular season starts), so he has time to work on his mechanics and the finer points of being a starter – in which case I think he’ll end up in Augusta this year. On the other hand, if the Giants want to keep him in the pen then he’s a prime candidate to be fast-tracked due to his outsanding control and above-average ability to strike out hitters, and he’ll likely make it to SJ for the majority of the season.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I'm thinking...
Law, Delgado, Heston. and Valdez. I need the real prospect hounds to tell me why I’m wrong.
I'm a Giants Fan, but I'll always be rooting for Matt Downs
Adopted Son:Dan Burkhart , Future Backup To Buster Posey.
Heston
He’s a bit old, but he’s a starter and he had a good year in the CAL. Even if Law starts he has a ways to go before he hits SJ. Harrold probably shouldn’t make the list as he did not put up good numbers, wasn’t particularly young, pitched in relief, and is in the low minors. Dunning had a nice year with the peripherals, but like Harrold wasn’t particularly young, pitched mostly in relief, and is in the low minors. Hill and Delgado look about the same as they’re both young but haven’t done anything in very small samples. No idea about Valdez.
Law next, and after that I don’t know. There isn’t enough information to make an informed decision (there really isn’t at this point either, but after Law I’ll have nothing).
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
by quincy0191 on Jan 30, 2012 12:45 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Really at 20, Hill isn’t really young for how raw he is. Little Desi Relafourd might be the better pure athlete lottery pick.
The one thing Delgado has done, and the reason I’m going to keep voting for him, is draw walks like they’re going out of style.
Considering that Delgado was drafted before Hill, outhit him in Arizona, is more than two years younger, and plays a more valuable position, a vote for Hill here is just willful.
and Delgado stole a base in 1 of 4 tries, yay. Too aggressive getting leads maybe?
the 15 RBIs in 96 at bats are a nice small sample teaser.
Marvin Barrios, come on I'll show you your bedroom. Don't stay on the phone too long to Panama, please.
by foothillsfan on Jan 30, 2012 10:56 AM PST up reply actions
I’m not saying that you shouldn’t rank Delgado ahead of Hill, but I do believe that you’ve mischaracterized the difference between the 2 guys.
1. Hill projects to be a CF, Degado projects to be a 2B. CF is a more valuable position.
2. Hill outhit Delgado in the AZL (.256 vs, .225) and outslugged (.360 vs. .310), albeit they both had very few ABs (86 vs. 71) to judge them on.
3. Delgado did draw a lot of walks, but he also struck out at an alaming rate (20%) for a guy that had an ISOp=.085 and doesn’t project to hit for much power.
If you want to handicap the Delgado vs. Hill debate, then I think the best way to look at it is age vs. tools. Delgado has a big age advantage on his side, while Hill has a big advantage in tools and athleticism. Age is most likely the most important decider for a prospect, but Delgado gets marked down for already being moved of SS to 2B so early in his career. One more thing, Delgado had a huge number of errors (9 – averaging 1 error for every 3 games he played). Errors aren’t a great way to judge a young prospect in the lower minor leagues, but error rates at that level are difficult to ignore – especially when he was already moved off SS.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
1. Delgado is listed as a shortstop but spent most of his time playing second; Hill is listed as a center fielder but spent half his time playing in a corner. So Hill’s hold on his original position looks tenuous as well. At any rate, 2B and CF are roughly equal in value in the majors.
2. Yes, Hill had the higher batting average, and thus the better slugging. But Delgado had a much higher OBP, leading to a better OPS and a better wRC+. In other words, he outhit him. (He also hit the only home run either of them managed.)
3. This is true. Of course, Hill’s strikeout rate was higher still.
No doubt Hill has tools, but then so does Wendell Fairley. Considering that the Giants thought higher of Delgado on draft day and neither has done anything to change that impression since, it looks like an easy choice from here.
Hill had the higher batting average, and thus the better slugging
Doesn’t make sense when you compare the ISOp for each guy: Hill=.104, Delgado=.085.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Also, given Delgado extra consideration because he went in the 8th round versus the 10th round for HIll wouldn’t be something that I would give consideration to, because at that late stage of the draft things like system needs and other non-PBA things often start to raise their ugly heads. Now, if they had gotten considerably different bouses it would be a different story.
Once again, though, let me say that I really don’t have an issue rating Delgado over Hill. I was just trying to more correctly frame the debate.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Absent my own eyeballs seeing Delgado last summer, I’m inclined to dismiss the walks. As I’ve said before, a guy who walks a lot without hitting the ball with any kind of authority is unlikely to sustain that walk rate as he advances and better pitchers pound the strike zone, IMO.
Voted for Heston in this round, but I would certainly take Hill over Delgado despite Hill being older.
This is one of those eminently logical and persuasive arguments that nevertheless doesn’t hold up. Look back at the low-level stats from years past and you see that the players who drew walks tended to keep drawing walks, while the players who didn’t didn’t. Luis Castillo is my usual example of a successful major-league player who just keeps getting on base despite barely being able to reach the outfield (and his rookie-league stats are a dead ringer for Delgado’s), but there are plenty of others.
Of course, most walky, no-power types don’t turn into Luis Castillo; they fizzle out in A-ball. But it’s because they can’t hit, not because the walks weren’t real. Just as most Kentrell Hill types fizzle out in A-ball because they can’t hit either.
I agree. Heston’s stats and being old for his leagues reminds me a bit of Surkamp. I think a few years from now he could be our 5th starter
Irrational Conor Gillaspie fanboy.
Heston or Surkamp?
Kidding aside, Heston’s stats aren’t really very similar to Surkamp’s, who’s always missed a lot more bats than Heston (and been younger than him at each level as well). Heston is more of gb pitcher and it remains to be seen if his sinker is hard enough to be able to control hitters at higher levels.
BTW, a little late for this I know
But I figure that, this late in the game, I’ll add anyone to the list that the community thinks deserves to be on there, at any time. Not as structured as it has been previously, but we do only have 4 slots left.
Jorge Bucardo
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
by quincy0191 on Jan 30, 2012 3:25 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Heston
Because he’s a starter. That is the sum total of my analysis.
He’s number one on my list of prospects organized by attractiveness, though. He even beats out Culberson. Impressive, no?
(I don’t really have such a list. ;-)
@legaleagle88
I'm not crazy. My mother had me tested.
And he seems to be single, while everybody and their brother seems to have gotten married this offseason.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
What is it about baseball players and getting married so young? The big leaguers who got married this offseason aren’t that young (Schierholtz, Zito, Runzler), but Culberson, Belt, Bumgarner, etc. got married quite young.
@legaleagle88
I'm not crazy. My mother had me tested.
My crackpot opininon: they get some of the hottest and most alpha female throwing themselves at them from the time they hit 16 years old (or younger), so by the time they hit 21-23 years old they’ve dated and/or one night-standed all of the girls that they need to in order to make up their minds. The baseball stars that don’t settle down early are likely the ones that love the single life of available girls and/or have an extreme fear of owing somebody 50% of their possessions in a divorce settlement. BTW, my impression is that Anglo and Latino players get married early way more often than black players, does that jibe with what you’ve seen?
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
That makes sense. I’m sure most even the most middling prospect is an absolute super star in his home town. Also, I have seen a lot of the girlfriends/wives and they are often far more attractive than the players, even those players making peanuts in the lower levels.
BTW, my impression is that Anglo and Latino players get married early way more often than black players, does that jibe with what you’ve seen?
You know, I’m not sure. I will note that Jose Casilla also got married this off season (I just remembered that) and he’s only about 22.
@legaleagle88
I'm not crazy. My mother had me tested.
by the time they hit 21-23 years old they’ve dated and/or one night-standed all of the girls that they need to in order to make up their minds. The baseball stars that don’t settle down early are likely the ones that love the single life of available girls
I think, Fla, that you may be a tad optimistic on the subject of athlete’s fidelity to their wedding vows.
LOL
You’ll notice I didn’t mention anything about their behavior after they get married. I’m under no illusions on how a large percentage of ballplayers (and athletes in general) treat their wedding vows.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Culberson, Belt, Bumgarner, Cain and Posey are all small-town Southern boys (stretching a bit because Belt’s from Texas, but you get my point). Due to the year-round warmer weather, more Southerners play baseball. I don’t have actual numbers to back this up, but it seems that a disproportionate number of young pro baseball players come from the southern United States. In the south, there’s a much stronger culture of getting married young. Young men who hail from small southern towns are more likely to be pro baseball players and get married young.
I know that paragraph is loaded with red herrings, but I hope you get my point. I’m not 100 percent sure about this, but I believe all five of the gentlemen mentioned above met their sweethearts in high school
Growing up on the west coast, I swore up and down that I never wanted to get married. Came out to Georgia for college. Ended up marrying my college sweetheart two months after my 24th birthday, and I was one of the last of my college friends to get married.
Yeah, I agree in general that small town ballplayers are more likely to get married early and to high school or college sweethearts. It’s hard to blame them, because, for the most part, these are the girls that they share a culture with and that they trust not to be after them for their money and/or fame.
In general, though, I don’t think that small southern towns are much different than small towns all across the country – especially in terms of getting married young. I also think that the southwest region of the country supply just as many ballplayers on a per capita basis as the southeast.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
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