Giants Prospect Lists
by Julian Levine on Jan 26, 2012 1:44 PM PST
Email
PrintInspired by Steal of Home, who's been keeping track of all the 2012 prospect lists in a Google Doc, I decided to do the same for Giants prospect lists. So here it is.
The lists are in no particular order, though I put When the Giants Come to Town and the McC Community Prospect list first and second (respectively) to make them easier to read (as those were the two longest ones). I'll try to periodically update this, as more lists are introduced & as current lists are finished. Anyway, any suggestions as to lists I could/should add to the spreadsheet, or errors that are in the doc?
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
109 comments
|
4 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Will you be considering McC community members? I see you have xanthan, oldjacket, and Gobroks on there already, but would you consider adding Fla-Giant and Roger’s lists, perhaps?
Didn't mean to miss
your list, of course, and Baron’s are on there as well, I see.
by free f.p. #14 on Jan 26, 2012 2:15 PM PST up reply actions
Definitely.
Do you have a link (or links) to the lists handy?
I write a Giants blog. I also write for MLB Daily Dish and Beyond the Box Score
by Julian Levine on Jan 26, 2012 2:15 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Fla’s list is here. I don’t know if Roger ever posted his (hint hint, Roger).
by free f.p. #14 on Jan 26, 2012 5:15 PM PST up reply actions
Awesome. Added it. Also, pre-emptively added the beginning of MLB.com’s list (assuming it’s Brown, Peguero in 1,2 based on the top 100), which should be released in early February.
I write a Giants blog. I also write for MLB Daily Dish and Beyond the Box Score
by Julian Levine on Jan 26, 2012 5:30 PM PST up reply actions
Ok ok
Brown
Panik
Joseph
Peguero
Adrianza
Susac
Hembree
Surkamp
Crick
Sanchez
Gillaspie
Culbertson
Blackburn
Duvall
Parker
Dominguez
Kickham
Oropesa’s
Jones
Flores
Mejia
Galindo
Mendoza
Marlowe
Osich
Black
Payne
Fuentes
Pill
RafRod
Wow. Conor @ 11 and Osich @ 25.
Everything else looks pretty reasonable. Mejia I expected you to rate low. Surprised you dropped Oropesa to the low teens, though.
Oh, and Pill? Really? What do you think his upside is at this point? I see him as Travis 2.0, and I really don’t think that deserves a prospect ranking.
Well 11 caused me issues. But Gillaspie does look like someone who’s like to have a UT career and could probably start for second division teams (clearly he’s a better hitter than Altuve for instance). And Osich, he just looks to me like his career path is a reliever (when he’s healthy enough to pitch) so I tossed him in with the other live armed relievers from the last draft. They can fight it out amongst themselves. I probably should have put Correa in there too as 25a. And Pill? Well he’s got a major league career, and it’s hard to keep him completely out of the top 30. Especially this top 30. If he never played another day he’d still like to end up better than, I don’t know 25 or so other guys here. I like the idea of pairing him with RafRod: the opposite sides of a particularly dingy penny.
I like all of this
I mean, Osich got passed on five times by every other team, and six times by most of the other teams. I get that he has great upside, particularly if he can start, but at some point that (and the injuries) ought to matter. He’s a good pick as a 6th rounder, but that’s still a 6th rounder.
I really think we overlooked Gillaspie too. Like I said elsewhere, if it weren’t for Pablo, Gillaspie would likely be penciled in as the 3B starter, and after a minor league career where he’s hit well everywhere (lowest MiLB wRC+ was 97 in 2008 in 18 games, and he’s never been below-average in a full season). Not to mention he’s only 24. He ought to get serious consideration as the 2013 starter in LF (and should play LF/RF in Fresno) if he has even a decent season next year. His MLE for last year was .252/.328/.372 which isn’t super-great (.700 OPS out of a corner player) but I would expect a little more power and average than that.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Hell, if Gillaspie spends time this season working on his defensive skills at second, I’d probably be willing to try him out there in 2013 after Freddy leaves. Of course, I wanted the Giants to start Ryan Rohlinger at short in 2011 before they signed Tejada. And I still believe RyRohl would’ve hit better than Tejada, too.
by free f.p. #14 on Jan 28, 2012 3:05 AM PST up reply actions
Now that the Cleveland Indians have signed Rohlinger, how many former Giants are on their MiLB rosters ? So far I count Ben Copeland, Rohlinger, Lewis, Joe Martinez, and Accardo. Am I missing anyone ?
They also signed Ryan Spilborghs, Felix Pie, Gregorio Petit, Andy LaRoche, Matt Pagnozzi, and Jose Lopez..
Is GM Chris Antonetti turning into Brian Sabean ?
I'm a Giants Fan, but I'll always be rooting for Matt Downs
Adopted Son:Dan Burkhart , Future Backup To Buster Posey.
Thomas Neal
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
also, Scott Barnes
I write a Giants blog. I also write for MLB Daily Dish and Beyond the Box Score
by Julian Levine on Jan 28, 2012 1:10 PM PST up reply actions
Completely forgot about about Neal in my rush to expunge from my mind all thoughts about Cabrera.
/ slaps forehead
I'm a Giants Fan, but I'll always be rooting for Matt Downs
Adopted Son:Dan Burkhart , Future Backup To Buster Posey.
Crick ahead of Hector surprises me a bit, but maybe I’ve mis-remembered what you’ve written recently about those 2 guys? Weren’t you one of the few people that had Hector ranked close to the top 10 on last year’s list?
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I think I had Hector about 15 lat year but to be honest I dont know what to make of his 2011 which I think in some ways was a lost year. I’ve always been interested in him, but I’ve never been one of his most full throated supporters. I can see a Yorvit Torrelba kind of career for him which is definitely a good and useful thing.
I guess it comes down to a vote of confidence for what Bradley and Tidrow and company can do with a great youn arm. I think Cricks a project. I don’t expect a Matt Cain like minor league career, but I have faith in he orgs ability to develop him.
The more difficult decision for me was Crick vs Surkamp and that’s where Cricks rawness caused me to go conservative. Part of that too is that I think the orgs behavior on draft day signals caution. Wyatt’s tweeted on draft day that half a dozen or so picks before their turn they were set on taking whichever of Stephenson, Ross, or one other HS pitcher who I’m forgetting fell to them. When all three went off the board in rapid succession they didn’t fall back to Crick but grabbed Panik even though he likely would still have been there with their second pick. That says to me that this kids a bit of a project but I have faith they can get something good out of him, but I’m not willing to bump him over Surkamp who I still believe can be a good backend guy.
Nice...
…There’ll be a Top 10 list going up over the next week on the LF. No Top 50 from me and Chris this year. :)
I’ll get it to you if you want to add it.
"The knowledge of the game is inversely proportional to the price of the seat." ---Bill Veeck. •Read My Blarrrgh...er, um....Comic. That doesn't really come across so well when said sarcastically. The Lunatic Fringe•
Absolutely.
I write a Giants blog. I also write for MLB Daily Dish and Beyond the Box Score
by Julian Levine on Jan 26, 2012 8:49 PM PST up reply actions
Wow. That was a major pain in the ass, ...
but here it is:
The prospects re-ordered by their average rank:
Player Avg. Rank
1 Gary Brown 1.00
2 Joe Panik 2.63
3 Tommy Joseph 4.16
4 Andrew Susac 4.89
5 Eric Surkamp 5.58
6 Francisco Peguero 6.68
7 Kyle Crick 7.21
8 Heath Hembree 7.26
9 Hector Sanchez 7.89
10 Ehire Adrianza 9.12
—
11 Joshua Osich 11.60
12 Clayton Blackburn 12.67
13 Ricky Oropesa 14.10
14 Adalberto Mejia 14.83
15 Jarrett Parker 15.20
16 Michael Kickham 15.50
17 Conor Gillaspie 16.50
18 Chris Dominguez 16.90
19 Adam Duvall 17.33
20 Jesus Galindo 18.33
by Nivra on Jan 27, 2012 4:09 PM PST reply actions 4 recs
I might drop Susac a couple spots and put Duvall above Dominguez
But that’s a really good list.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Notes:
Things get a bit uncertain after the top10 as some of those prospects are off people’s lists entirely, and I didn’t know how to average the missing prospect rankings except by excluding them. For instance Mejia doesn’t appear on MinorLeagueBall’s top20, so instead of counting him as a possible 21, he gets a pass, when in fact he should be docked at least to place 21. Same thing happens with Oropesa as he didn’t make a lot of top15 lists(Bullpen Banter, BCB, Crazy Crabbers, Julian’s), but he doesn’t get docked to #16 and instead the average rank just reflects the ranking in those lists that he did make.
Here’s the full google spreadsheet I used for the calculations. I had to reorder the last sheet by hand since Google’s “Sort by A-Z” function is broken.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AsTK8zdwpQCDdHdsaGhCaUVCamVyckUxakljUWdEWGc&pli=1#gid=1
Oh, and BCB folks all get an extra 1/4 vote...
Because they have 5 entries for 4 peoples’ lists. The generic BCB list already reflects the average of their 4 votes, but it gets counted as if it were a separate list.
Wow. Awesome. Interesting (though not all that surprising) that Dominguez/Gillaspie are super close.
I write a Giants blog. I also write for MLB Daily Dish and Beyond the Box Score
by Julian Levine on Jan 27, 2012 5:31 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I think it is
Gillaspie has been significantly younger and hit much better than Dominguez. Dominguez has DINGERZ on his side but little else – Gillaspie’s a pretty well-rounded player who could see some success.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
I know, but Dominguez has 80 arm/power, and he’s better suited for third defensively. I go back and forth on this a lot though.
I write a Giants blog. I also write for MLB Daily Dish and Beyond the Box Score
by Julian Levine on Jan 27, 2012 8:43 PM PST up reply actions
He’s 25 though. It’d be one thing if he were an 80 arm/power potential at 19 in the SAL, but as a 25 year old 3B who has shown little actual hitting ability, I can’t see him inside the top 30. At some point, those tools have to translate to stats – he’ll presumably have a lot of power potential at 30, but I don’t see him even in a system by that point. This is a guy who, if he continues at the pace he’s currently moving, won’t end up in the majors until he’s 27 or so, and he’s actually showing signs of slowing down – after being average in A+ at 24, he was pretty well below average in AA, a league he’s still too old for.
Not to mention his other tools don’t seem to be great. He doesn’t have a reputation as a good defender despite a strong arm, and he sure as hell can’t hit for average or get on base or run particularly well. And with Sandoval, Gillaspie’s ability to play third doesn’t matter too much anyway – Dominguez certainly isn’t suited for SS/2B, and if Gillaspie plays better there that’s actually better for the Giants. Even if he can only play first, I’d rather have him there and Belt in left (or, even better, him in left and Belt at first) than Dominguez at first (or third).
Bottom line, Gillaspie’s a year younger and put up better stats in AA last year (at 22) than Dominguez did this year (at 24). I just don’t see the appeal, not only as a comparison with Gillaspie, but in general. Dominguez has a good power tool, and I get that’s attractive (particularly in a system almost devoid of power), but he’s shown little hitting ability, and hasn’t even done that well to tap into his power; 21 HR in a full season in SJ is his career-high – in the CAL, that’s not too impressive. Joseph hit 22 last year and he’s five years younger. Like I said, it’d be one thing if there were a lot of projection and time on his side, but at 25 I think we pretty much know what we have: a guy who strikes out a lot, doesn’t walk, doesn’t play defense particularly well, doesn’t run, and has great power that doesn’t show up too often.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
I still think it’s too early in Chris Dominguez’s development to say that his tools will never translate into success. Granted, he’s nearing that age, and if he can’t put it together at all in 2012, he’ll probably have reached that point. I just don’t think he’s there yet. I believe he’s got better upside because of his power potential (though yes, because of his hit tool, he has relatively low odds of actually fully tapping into it; in fact, 21 HR in a full season in Augusta is his career-high).
Anyway, Gillaspie’s definitely not suited for shortstop either; I admittedly haven’t heard much about how his glove would profile at second base…would he really play better there? It just seems he doesn’t have a clear position at this point. As for Dominguez’s defense, based on what I’ve read, I get the sense that he projects as not a standout defender, but at least an average defender at third, making up for his range with an incredibly strong arm.
I write a Giants blog. I also write for MLB Daily Dish and Beyond the Box Score
by Julian Levine on Jan 27, 2012 9:36 PM PST up reply actions
It's far too early to say his tools will never translate
Michael Morse just got a two-year extension for pretty good money and just had his breakout season at 29 after bouncing between the majors and AAA for several years. Until a player retires, the potential is always there.
I just can’t get over how old he is and how decidedly mediocre he’s been, and not just from a statistical perspective. I doubt any scouts are predicting he will hit for average or get on base or win Gold Gloves (or maybe he will if he hits enough homers /overused joke) and I think the draft position – #37 overall vs. a third-round pick – speaks to that. Roger’s look at the role of age in a prospect’s future (which I can’t find now, but if you haven’t seen, basically says being young for your league is HUGE in predicting future value) is playing a pretty big part in that feeling, but even if it wasn’t, even being generous on defense does not make up for the simple fact that Dominguez just hasn’t hit, and Gillaspie has. At 25 now, he’s pretty much run out of time; another year is again being reasonably generous, and he still hasn’t even played a full season of AA. Gillaspie is 24 and looks to be knocking on the door.
I think there’s just a difference of opinion here, so I’ll leave it at that, but in general this situation does not make any sense to me at all. Dominguez has ONE advantage over Gillaspie, and it’s not even that strong – ISO isn’t a great tool in terms of HR power, but the fact that Gillaspie’s ISOs are not far off Dominguez’ (and career-wise Dominguez leads only .180 to .125 or thereabouts) isn’t exactly singing of his prowess in the area he’s supposed to excel. I can’t look at Gillaspie, who has pretty literally every single thing in his favor except one (power) and maybe one more (defense, though I don’t know and I’m not sure anyone does for sure), and say yeah, that guy is pretty close to this other one. And that’s not really on you to justify, but it is immensely frustrating and you happened to get caught in my tornado of words and annoyance.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Morse is actually an interesting comp for Dominguez but even he was decidedly ahead of Dominguez in his development. His AA season was much better than Dominguez and it came two years younger. It was trying to get over the major league hurdle that caused him such trouble (although really looking at his MLB numbers kind of makes me wonder why Seattle never gave him mor of a chance, particularly given the teams they were fielding at the time). Given how old he is now and the hurdles he still has in front of him, time is definitely not on Chris’ side.
However one advantage of tools is they give you options, and like Sergio Santos I think the conversion to a reliever option is definitely there for him, in which case occasionally bein able to last one into th stratosphere could one day come in handy.
I’m very slowly working on a bigger, better, more expanded look with more leagues, more levels, and pitchers included. Can’t be too hig on my priority list but I get to it when I have spare time. Maybe by ST I’ll have something finished.
I’ll be interested to see that. Also, if you have a link to the other one?
I write a Giants blog. I also write for MLB Daily Dish and Beyond the Box Score
by Julian Levine on Jan 28, 2012 1:11 PM PST up reply actions
Here’s an example of why it doesn’t surprise me that they came out as close on the consensus list:
Kevin Goldstein: @TKoppe22 I rate them by talking to scouts and learning about them and their tools and upside. Stats mean very little anyway.
Kevin Goldstein: Tools are always more important than numbers until the big leagues. RT @lucarelj: @Kevin_Goldstein how do you grade a guy like Cespedes?
Those that have Dominguez/Gillaspie close probably place less emphasis on stats/ARL factor in favor of the tantalizing power tool (& the 80 arm) and the general upside. I don’t know if that necessarily makes sense. But it doesn’t surprise me.
I write a Giants blog. I also write for MLB Daily Dish and Beyond the Box Score
by Julian Levine on Jan 28, 2012 1:15 PM PST up reply actions
Actually I think the reason they come up so close is that people who value scouting reports place Dominguez higher and Gillaspie lower, and people who value stats do the opposite.
You’re probably right. Most of the lists had them spread (relatively) far apart. But yeah, point is: some place little to no emphasis on stats when it comes to prospects.
I write a Giants blog. I also write for MLB Daily Dish and Beyond the Box Score
by Julian Levine on Jan 28, 2012 1:27 PM PST up reply actions
Anyway, whether it’s an accurate assessment that they’re close? That’s debatable. But I’m not surprised that the consensus has them as close.
I write a Giants blog. I also write for MLB Daily Dish and Beyond the Box Score
by Julian Levine on Jan 27, 2012 9:49 PM PST up reply actions
I’ll add Roger’s list and update Gobroks’ list later this evening.
I write a Giants blog. I also write for MLB Daily Dish and Beyond the Box Score
by Julian Levine on Jan 27, 2012 5:33 PM PST via mobile reply actions
Actually, here’s my updated, revised and final list if anybody feels like recalculating the spreadsheet:
1. Gary Brown
2. Joe Panik
3. Andrew Susac
4. Hector Sanchez
5. Tommy Joseph
6. Eric SurKamp
7. Kyle Crick
8. Francisco Peguero
9. Heath Hembree
10. Josh Osich
11. Adalberto Mejia
12. Clayton Blackburn
13. Ehire Adrianza
14. Mike Kickham
15. Ricky Oropesa
16. Charlie Culberson
17. Chuckie Jones
18. Jacob Dunnington
19. Kendry Flores
20. Adam Duvall
21. Seth Rosin
22. Shawn Payne
23. Jesus Galindo
24. Hector Correa
25. Kelby Tomlinson
26. Demondre Arnold
27. Lorenzo Mendoza
28. Chris Heston
29. Enmanuel DeJesus
30. Kentrell Hill
31. Stephen Harrold
32. Joan Gregorio
33. Brett Bochy
34. Chris Marlowe
35. Derek Law
36. Carlos “Eric” Valdez
37. Chris Dominguez
38. Jarrett Parker
39. Tyler Mizenko
40. Roger Kieschnick
41. Drew Stiner
42. Jonathan Jones
43. Leonardo Fuentes
44. Christian Diaz (RF | 18.8):
HONORABLE MENTION (in alphabetical order):
Brandon Allen, Bryce Bandilla, Ray Black, Jorge Bucardo, Garrett Buechele, Jean Delgado, Jake Dunning, Conor Gillaspie, Simon Mercedes, Cristian Otero, Dan Otero, Travious Relaford, Rafael Rodriguez, Reinier Roibal, Angel Villalona, Carlos Willoughby
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Okay this makes no sense on the Gillaspie/Dominguez debate
And because it’s on my mind, why is Gillaspie left off completely after having an above-average year in Fresno at 23?
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Becasue I don’t think that his bat will ever be good enough to alllow him to ever even be a legit bench player on the Giants. The only 2 positions that he can paly at all are 3B and 1B, and that’s not going to be a profile that wins him a spot on the Giants bench unless either Panda or both Belt and Pill implode in the next few years. Conor can’t play SS or 2B, so he’s got no chance of winning a UT IF spot in SF. This season is also the last one where he’ll have a waiver exemption. Next season, if he miraculously makes the 25 man roster at any point, he’ll have to be DFA’d before he can be sent back down to Fresno. I see no way that he can last a full season on the 25 man roster, so he’s either gonig to languish in Fresno for several more years or he’s going to get claimed by another major league team in the next few years.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
If the game would ever go back to a more reasonable pitching staff (10 seems pretty reasonable to me for the NL) then I do believe Conor could have a fine career as a lefty bat off the bench ala Mark Sweeney or Lenny Randle. Even so I do think you’ll see him on the Giants bench this year and next. And if they cant find a place for him, I do think that trade value I a consideration in ranking prospects and surely teams that could wan him in a deal.
I don’t thnk that I’m as big a believer in Gillaspie’s bat as you are, but I do agree with you that he could probably forge a decent multi-year career with the right team as a DH. I also agree with you that he’ll likely be found on the SF roster for the Gaints at different points this year (as they search for some offense), but I don’t see him getting any significant numnber of ABs or innings. I’ll be surprised if he gets more than 50 ABs for the Giants this year and more than 100 ABs for his entire Giants’ career. I also think that he’s never going to be seen as desireable enough by another team for the Giants to get anything decent in a future trade for him – probably an older, C-level mid-inning reliever type..
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I have no idea about his speed
But if he’s got a good arm (and presumably would as a 3B) then LF/RF should be explored as options. He wouldn’t need as much quickness as SS/2B and could make better use of the arm, plus those are positions where we have NOTHING in the upper minors – if he can play LF, he could be a starter in 2013 with Belt at first.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Not a good arm, that’s one of the reasons why he’s not a good defensive 3B. Also, I have to believe that he would have been tried out in LF last season if he showed any kind of aptitude to be able to cut it in the OF.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Gillaspie did get a couple starts in LF at Fresno this year, and9 at 1B.
I think his fielding has improved quite a bit and it’s not fair to judge him based on scouting from 2009, all his metrics have gone in the right direction.
Irrational Conor Gillaspie fanboy.
Should I also ignore reports from the 2010 Eastern League and the 2010 AFL? Aguy that doesn’t have quick feet, good range, soft hands and a strong arm can’t do much to correct those deficiencies. You can take a ton of grounder every day and make your hands a bit better, but the other 3 things are almost wholely due to genetics.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I saw a note from Baggs recently that said the Giants actually are seeing a noticeable improvement from him at 3b. Still makes sense to try him other places, if only because of Pablo.
I think he should try out second base more. His bat fits second more than third… and third more than LF or 1B.
I think in the long run Gillaspie would be better off on a team that has an opening for him right away instead of waiting for Freddy and Huff to leave and for Pablo to move to first.
Irrational Conor Gillaspie fanboy.
quick feet, I think, can be improved
through lots of practice. Sure, the genetics helps, but being able to read the batter and pitcher to pre-position, and practicing exercises aimed at sharpening quickness reflexes will help that, as would the right work out regimen. I’d put feet quickness in the category of soft hands. Genetics is the king, but you can improve a bad tool to average or even a below average tool to slightly above average.
But yah, range and arm are pretty much genetic.
Home run swingin’. That’s my explanation for leaving Conor G off and Chris D down at 37. You value future breakout potential to the extreme over making the show.
I think it’s fairly obvious that neither Gillaspie or Dominguez will ever be anything more than negatinve WAR guys if they ever play more than 25 games in the pros. I’ll take potential over that almost every day. Especially when both guys are blocked at 3B by Panda and at 1B by Belt, Buster, Huff and Pill – not to mention that much younger guys like Susac, Hector and Joseph are nipping at their heels for playing time at 1B.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I 100% agree with this.
Though just because he might not have a future with the Giants (Gillaspie) I think he could fit somewhere for a different team. That has value, even if it won’t be for the Giants.
Adoptive father of 18th round draft pick and future ace, BRANDON ALLEN
by Nnamdi Asomugha on Jan 29, 2012 8:37 PM PST up reply actions
For the Giants, it represents trade value.
I write a Giants blog. I also write for MLB Daily Dish and Beyond the Box Score
by Julian Levine on Jan 29, 2012 9:10 PM PST up reply actions
Yes. but as I noted in another comment on this thread, I see no way that the Giants will get much in trade for him. If he surprises me by hitting better in the majors then the Giants will likely hang onto him. If he doesn’t hit well then after this season the Giants will have to expose him to waivers to send him back to the minors. Any team that likes him will know that all they have to do is wait until the Giants DFA him to get him for nothing. It would be different if you think that Gillaspie could stick on the 25 man major league roster this year, but I don’t think even the most ardent Gillaspie supporters can make a cogent case for that to happen due to Panda’s presence and the current logjam at 1B.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Doesn't he have a fourth option year due to contract shenanigans?
I thought that was established already, in which case he’ll have another option after this season (called up in 2008 and 2011).
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
No, he gets an extra year (his 4th) becasue he was only in the majors for such a short time at the end of the 2008 season. In other words, even though he was on the 40 man in 2008, the rules allow the Giants to not count that against his count of waiver exemptions. His waiver exemption years ends after the 2012 season.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
If he has a fourth option, he should be waiver exempt for 2013 as well, though. Four option years (or three and ignoring the short 2008 call-up) means one use in 2011, one in 2012, and one left before he needs to pass through waivers.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
He has an option year for 2012, which means that he will be out of options for the 2013 season. But as there is no active roster during the offseason, a decision won’t have to be on him (as indeed all players who are out of options) until Opening Day 2013.
That said, I’ll disagree with Fla and wager they find room on their roster for him in 2013 if he hasn’t been used in a trade before then. They have invested good money in him, and typically they’ve made the choice to keep players who were high draft choices of high overslot signings when they ran out of options if had reached AAA, at least for one year to give them the chance to validate their draft positions and bonuses.
Where did the third option go then?
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Gillaspie was first put on the 40 man roster when he was brought to the majors in September 2008 and he has been on the 40 man roster ever since.
Which means he was on “optional assignment” throughout 2009 (1), 2010 (2), and 2011 (3). Unless he makes the big club out of spring training and spends nearly the entirety of 2012 in the majors (specifically, he could spend no more than 19 days in the minors), then the 2012 season will account for his 4th option year, which he gets as a special case because he was placed on the 40 man so quickly that he used up his 3 options before he had been in professional baseball for 5 years.
At that point, he would be out of options and when the Opening Day roster is submitted to the MLB office at the end of ST 2013, Gillaspie would either have to be on it or be waived or DFA’d.
I now think I see your question. Your assumption is that he’s used up two options because he’s been in the majors 2 times. This is a common misconception. Options do not have anything particularly to do with being called up to the majors or sent down.
Rather you use up an option year for every season during which you are on the 40 man but not on the opening day active roster. At that point you are considered to be on optional assignment and you use up one of your options. While on optional assignment, you can be freely moved between the minors and major league club as many times as needed (there have been many many cases where players were recalled and sent down more than 3 times in a single season).
The only exception to the above is if a player is sent down to the minors at the end up ST but ends up being in the minors for less than 20 days the entire season, then that would not have been an option year, but that’s a pretty rare occurance.
So for instance, last year Adrianza and Peguero used up one of their three options despite never being called up to the majors because they spent the year on the 40 man, and in 2012 they will both no doubt use up a second one. Which means that they would both run out of options in 2013 and if they’re still around and on the 40 man, they would have to make the team in 2014 or be exposed to waivers whether or not they had ever played a game in the majors (which I would hope they had by that point).
+1
Your assumption is that he’s used up two options because he’s been in the majors 2 times. This is a common misconception.
It’s an easy mistake to make, and I still find myself falling it every once in a while. Gillaspie didn’t spend enough time on the 40 man in 2008, so that season didn’t use up his first “free waiver” season until the end of 2009.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Actually, that’s not entirely accurate either. There are two intertwined reasons why he didn’t use an option in 2008:
1) he was added to the 40 man roster in September, which is after the Active Roster ceases to exist. As optional assignments only exist relative to the Active Roster, there was no option to be used at that point. And also
2) he was never sent back down to the minors after having been added to the 40 man (this is implicit to the first reason of course). As long as you remain in the majors after you’re added to the 40 man you don’t use up an option.
Okay
So the Giants actually sort of “stole” a 4th option year by putting him on the 40-man in Sept. 2008 because that didn’t use an option but got them another one.
Good knowledge, thanks. I guess they do this to make sure a team can’t just keep a player in the minors indefinitely?
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
I wouldn’t say they stole an option. They did get an extra option year because they put him on the 40 man so early in his career, but by the same measure they ended up burning at least two and possibly three of the option years he had while he was still developing.
Had they not made the handshake deal to bring him to the majors in 2008 (the intent of which was to give him a larger signing bonus without having to call it a signing bonus, I assume to placate Selig and the MLB office), he wouldn’t have had to put on the 40 man until this winter, in which case they’d still be looking at three option years left for him instead of the one they have left. And even if they would have chosen to bring him up in 2011 as an injury replacement and put him on the 40 man at that point, he’d still have two option years left.
And yes, the rule is intended to allow players who are stuck in an organization to find their way to an organization that has use for them. Same is true of the minor league FA rule.
In Gillaspie's situation, the net result was losing more options
I was just saying in general that tactic could result in a better situation for players like Stephen Strasburg who are nearly ML-ready. Mike Leake would be a good example of that working in the team’s favor since he skipped the minors.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
I suppose, but there’s not really any need for a player like Strasburg. Because he moved thru the system so rapidly and did so well when he got to the majors he’s never used up a single option and probably never will (or if he does Washington’s worst fears will already have become realized.
Leake IIRC correctly was optioned down last year, so he could definitely be in a situation to get a 4th option year, though again that will be a bad scenario for the Reds because it will mean that he never really got any better and they kept having to send him down to the minors for the next three years (or portions thereof).
Bottom line, if a player develops quickly and very well, the options aren’t needed much.
Interested to hear what prompted you to bring Hector Correa from honorable mention all the way up to #24.
I write a Giants blog. I also write for MLB Daily Dish and Beyond the Box Score
by Julian Levine on Jan 28, 2012 1:20 PM PST up reply actions
The Giants put him on the 40-man roster in early December, then Baggs passed on some good reviews of his stuff, including that he wouldn’t be surprised to see Correa pitching for SF in 2012.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Oh yeah.
Baggs did a piece on him for BA. I know Baron’s been pretty high on him for a while now.
I write a Giants blog. I also write for MLB Daily Dish and Beyond the Box Score
by Julian Levine on Jan 28, 2012 4:07 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Updated the spreadsheet, btw.
I write a Giants blog. I also write for MLB Daily Dish and Beyond the Box Score
by Julian Levine on Jan 28, 2012 1:22 PM PST up reply actions
Julian, I met a guy a few months ago who mentioned knowing you when I told him I was a Giants fan. According to him, you’re a cool guy.
Cash rules everything around me
C.R.E.A.M.
Get the money
Dollar dollar bill y'all
Impossible. I’m quite the opposite. Haha, who’d you meet?
I write a Giants blog. I also write for MLB Daily Dish and Beyond the Box Score
by Julian Levine on Jan 28, 2012 2:34 PM PST up reply actions
Dude’s name was Spencer. Goes to Albany High,
Cash rules everything around me
C.R.E.A.M.
Get the money
Dollar dollar bill y'all
Ohhh, Spencer Perry. Awesome
I write a Giants blog. I also write for MLB Daily Dish and Beyond the Box Score
by Julian Levine on Jan 30, 2012 11:11 PM PST up reply actions
This is really just self-flagellation,
but what the hell…
we’re Giants’ fans.
http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120122&content_id=26423426&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb
Here Goes
1. Gary Brown
2. Francisco Peguero
3. Joe Panik
4. Kyle Crick
5. Hector Sanchez
6. Tommy Joseph
7. Heath Hembree
8. Andrew Susac
9. Eric Surkamp
10. Clayton Blackburn
11. Chris Dominguez
12. Seth Rosin
13. Josh Osich
14. Hector Correa
15. Conor Gillaspie
16. Adam Duvall
17. Ricky Oropesa
18. Charlie Culberson
19. Dan Otero
20. Ehire Adrianza
21. Kendry Flores
22. Jarrett Parker
23. Chuckie Jones
24. Jacob Dunnington
25. Angel Villalona
"The knowledge of the game is inversely proportional to the price of the seat." ---Bill Veeck. •Read My Blarrrgh...er, um....Comic. That doesn't really come across so well when said sarcastically. The Lunatic Fringe•
#@$%
I must doing something wrong…
"The knowledge of the game is inversely proportional to the price of the seat." ---Bill Veeck. •Read My Blarrrgh...er, um....Comic. That doesn't really come across so well when said sarcastically. The Lunatic Fringe•
by BruteSentiment on Jan 29, 2012 3:06 PM PST up reply actions
Truthfully...
…this is the first list where I stopped doing my grading based on performances and scouting reports, and went more on eye and personal judgment. I don’t know if that’s a good thing or not.
"The knowledge of the game is inversely proportional to the price of the seat." ---Bill Veeck. •Read My Blarrrgh...er, um....Comic. That doesn't really come across so well when said sarcastically. The Lunatic Fringe•
by BruteSentiment on Jan 29, 2012 7:25 PM PST up reply actions
Added.
I write a Giants blog. I also write for MLB Daily Dish and Beyond the Box Score
by Julian Levine on Jan 28, 2012 9:33 PM PST up reply actions
Peguero at #2 is an unholy abomination
And that is in no way an exaggeration.
More reasonably, why Hembree over Surkamp? Hembree absolutely won’t start, and even if Surkamp’s future is a LOOGY (which would be about the worst case scenario) given the general lack of WAR relievers produce he probably won’t be more than 1-2 wins behind Hembree at the worst. Best case, Surkamp becomes a borderline ace, most likely, he turns into a reliable #4 type, which is still more valuable than nearly any reliever.
Like Osich being that far down, not sure about Dominguez at #11 though. But I guess I’m more down on him than most. Adrianza probably deserves a higher ranking too, certainly above Duvall.
Really, though, I do like this list in general.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
I’m thinking that “unholy abomination” is actually in every way an abomination.
I have Hembree over Surkamp as well. I still think there’s a chance he can’t stick that causes me a slight unease.
In every way an exaggeration of course I meant to say. Is autocorrect the most annoying invention ever?
I agree that it’s an exaggeration; but would it not be unprecedented for someone like Francisco Peguero, a sub-2% walk rate in AA at age 23, to have success at the major-league level? Has there been anyone like that before? Granted, he was better at drawing walks in previous years at lower levels, but even Yuniesky Betancourt wasn’t that bad at drawing walks in the minors (3.5% walk rate, age 23, 433 PA in AA/AAA)
I write a Giants blog. I also write for MLB Daily Dish and Beyond the Box Score
by Julian Levine on Jan 29, 2012 12:07 PM PST up reply actions
If Peguero maintained his BB% through the majors
Which, considering he did it in AA, I would not assume, it would be tied for the third-lowest BB% of the last 50 years. His MLE for AA was .257/.268/.358. Just…wow.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Gross.
I write a Giants blog. I also write for MLB Daily Dish and Beyond the Box Score
by Julian Levine on Jan 29, 2012 1:08 PM PST up reply actions
Oh, Roger, I am disappoint
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
We've hashed and rehashed the Pegeuro one to death...
As for Surkamp over Hembree: Calling Surkamp a borderline ace is an unholy exaggeration. Or abomination. Whatever Autocorrect says. He could become a solid starter, or even a good one. He might also be a good reliever. He’s a major leaguer for sure. But I see Hembree as a dominating type of pitcher in his role, rather than just good.
With Dominguez, I just like the power potential, and I hope he can get things figured out defensively. Unlike many third basemen, Dominguez has the defensive ability to stick there. I see him as a Beltre type of player.
Adrianza, though…yea, no.
"The knowledge of the game is inversely proportional to the price of the seat." ---Bill Veeck. •Read My Blarrrgh...er, um....Comic. That doesn't really come across so well when said sarcastically. The Lunatic Fringe•
by BruteSentiment on Jan 29, 2012 7:31 PM PST up reply actions
I don't think Surkamp will become a borderline ace
I just think the potential is there. He’s consistently shown an ability to get K’s and limit walks, and I can’t imagine denying the possibility given what he’s been able to do – like Sickels said in Grant’s FP post, and like I’ve been saying for awhile, he has the MiLB track record of a top pitching prospect. I’d say he will end up as a #4 type starter if I had to pick an outcome, but I think the ceiling ought to be acknowledged.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
I trust the scouts there and scouts don’t believe his stuff has any chance to play at an ace level. The stats are important, but there is a decently long list of pitchers who showed a consistent ability to miss bats and limit walks with underwhelming stuff in the minors only to fail to do so at the major league level. Surkamp would not be particularly unique if he was never a successful major league starter, even a back end one.
Sure
There’s a long list of pitchers who showed a consistent ability to miss bats and limit walks with great stuff in the minors only to fail to do so at the major league level. Maybe the first list is longer. But while the jump from AA to the majors is enormous in terms of talent disparity, they’re not playing a different game. Surkamp may have to make adjustments, he may even have to improve a little (in possible areas like control or adding another pitch, not things like adding FB velocity which pretty much won’t happen), but anyone who is able to dominate hitters like he did has the potential to keep doing so at a higher level.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
That's actually an interesting question...
Let’s say you were able to take all pitching prospects with dominating stats at the minor leagues:
e.g. average K/9 above 9. Minimum K/9 for any season of 8. Average BB/9 <3. Minimum BB/9 for any season of 4.
Now separate this pool into “stuff” guys and “non-stuff” guys. e.g. Wheeler is a “stuff” guy and Surkamp is a “non-stuff” guy.
What’s the success rate of the first group vs. the success rate of the second group?
What’s the avg. WAR of the first vs. the second?
I think you mean "maximum BB/9"
I would guess the stuff guys have a much higher success rate. Not just because they have a better cushion to fall back on – if they lose control they still have excellent raw talent to get over that hurdle. But they also tend to get more chances – if Roy Halladay was throwing in the high-80’s instead of the low-mid 90’s there’s a decent chance he wouldn’t have been given too many more chances. He kept moving up the minor league ladder and got shots in the majors despite some pretty poor performances.
But I’m not sure how many non-stuff guys there really are. Surkamp is not a fastball guy, but he has an excellent curve and changeup. That may not seem like much until you realize that another organization guy was considered by many to be a closer prospect until he developed the best changeup in baseball. So it depends on how you define “stuff” – is Wheeler’s raw stuff, right now, better than Surkamp’s? Maybe. His fastball is certainly better. But offspeed pitches count too – there aren’t too many starting pitchers (and not too many relievers) who get by throwing fastballs all the time.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
When the Wheeler/Beltran deal went down, my first thought with giving up Wheeler was that the Giants are comfortable with the way Surkamp pitches. He was in the middle of some pretty big hype. If he hadn’t been called up and hickup’d a little I think people would be much more high on him. I don’t think he had enough time or comfort level to really unleash his pitches – the plus change and the curve. Hopefully Surkamp will just chalk it up to a cup of coffee and come back strong. The other thing that might have happened is he may have been a bit fatigued. He’s not a hard thrower but he is supposed to break 90, don’t think that happened much in the show.
His average velo last year per Fangraphs was 88 MPH. Not great, but that’s probably an 86-90 MPH range. And yeah, that’s at the end of the season.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
And that’s roughly average for a LH starter. Don’t have the numbers off-hand, but it’s not far off.
I write a Giants blog. I also write for MLB Daily Dish and Beyond the Box Score
by Julian Levine on Feb 7, 2012 3:47 PM PST up reply actions
well . . .
1. Gary Brown
2. Joe Panik
3. Andrew Susac
4. Francisco Peguero
5. Eric Surkamp
6. Tommy Joseph
7. Heath Hembree
8. Kyle Crick
9. Hector Sanchez
10. Ehire Adrianza
11. Josh Osich
12. Mike Kickham
13. Adalberto Mejia
14. Clayton Blackburn
15. Ricky Oropesa
Adoptive father of 18th round draft pick and future ace, BRANDON ALLEN
by Nnamdi Asomugha on Jan 29, 2012 10:36 PM PST reply actions
Chuckie Jones may be the most volatile. Completely off some lists, in the teens on others. Was getting votes in the single digits from the MCC community.
Dominguez volatile also—yes, we covet dingers! and Ehire.
Marvin Barrios, come on I'll show you your bedroom. Don't stay on the phone too long to Panama, please.
What about guys like Mike Murray or Rainer Roibal, are they still with the giants.
Murray has put up excellent numbers but he is old for his placement.
How much older is he than Panik? Not sure what the situation with
Roibal is? Is he still in the giants farm system? If so, has he totally
messed up his status by having a bad year last year, after they were
expecting him to be much better. He also has aged without showing
much improvement.
Mike Murray
Is 2 1/2 years older than Panik, and to be honest hasn’t even mashed that much. The only outstanding stat of his is his low K rate (13%), his ISO is only .132, which for a guy who doesn’t seem, uh, defensively-inclined, is not particularly good. He’s a non-prospect.
Roibal had a perfectly boring year as a 22 year old in Salem-Keizer. It wasn’t good or bad per say, just boring. Decent K-rate, okay walk rate, gave up too many hits but that could be luck more than anything. His K/BB rate was lower than Cameron Lamb and only barely ahead of Kendry Flores, who is 3 years younger than him.
by free f.p. #14 on Jan 31, 2012 1:22 AM PST up reply actions
Pretty good synopsis. I would add that neither guy is a non-prospect at this time, IMHO, but they’re hanging on by their fingertips. Obviously, the Giants will give Roibal much more rope than Murray due to the fact that he can be used as a starter and because they have so much of a signing bonus invested in him (at least $400K). Murray needs to have a great year with the bat, and prove that he can play 1B if he’s going to last more than 2 more seasons in the system.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Murray is a bad defensive catcher, then?
Marvin Barrios, come on I'll show you your bedroom. Don't stay on the phone too long to Panama, please.
by foothillsfan on Feb 1, 2012 10:08 AM PST up reply actions
Below-average at best. He didn’t play more than an inning or 2 at catcher the entire year in 2011 and he’s going to play 1B, DH and LF this season. With his bat, if he seemed to have any future as a catcher the Giants would be playing him there 5 days a week the last 2 seasons.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Updated the list with Keith Law’s top ten. I believe he’s the only one to have Eric Surkamp below Clayton Blackburn (Surkamp didn’t crack his top ten at all, while Blackburn was right there at #10)
I write a Giants blog. I also write for MLB Daily Dish and Beyond the Box Score
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Get a grip: Reds’ Todd Frazier loses bat, still connects for home run (Video)
- Eric Hosmer redefines the Baltimore chop with infield double (Video)
- College player makes impossible over the fence catch to save tournament game (Video)
- Security!: Camden Yards guard collides with Royals’ Mike Moustakas
- The Juice: Nelson Cruz matches career high eight RBIs, Pujols stays hot in Seattle
