Community Prospect List #38
by free f.p. #14 on Jan 25, 2012 11:38 PM PST
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PrintKelby Tomlinson wins. Here's the poll for the #38 position. This poll will be open until 9pm PST tomorrow, January 26th.
Please do not rec these posts. We don't want them to clutter up the recommended FanPosts section.
The list so far:
1. Gary Brown
2. Joe Panik
3. Tommy Joseph
4a. Eric Surkamp
4b. Heath Hembree
7. Andrew Susac
9. Kyle Crick
10. Ehire Adrianza
11. Josh Osich
12. Clayton Blackburn
13. Adalberto Mejia
14. Adam Duvall
15. Conor Gillaspie
16. Ricky Oropesa
17. Jarrett Parker
18a. Chuckie Jones
18b. Mike Kickham
20. Kendry Flores
21. Jacob Dunnington
22. Angel Villalona
23. Charlie Culberson
24. Jesus Galindo
25. Seth Rosin
26. Chris Dominguez
27. Brett Bochy
28. Ryan Cavan
29. Shawn Payne
30. Hector Correa
31. Lorenzo Mendoza
32. Joan Gregorio
33. Rafael Rodriguez
34. Chris Marlowe
35. Enmanuel De Jesus
36. Demondre Arnold
37. Kelby Tomlinson
The player's first name links to his Baseball Cube profile page, and his last name links to his Fangraphs profile page.
Jean Delgado (His first name is his BB-Ref profile, his BC profile only showed fielding stats.)
Kentrell Hill
Carlos (Eric) Valdez
If you want to see any names added to the poll, mention them in the comments. Vote away!
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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Chris Heston?
California Leaguers beware: Chris Gloor will strike you out faster than you can say "Quinnipiac", or he would have if he had pitched more than five innings this year before getting hurt...
by crazedcrustacean on Jan 26, 2012 12:18 AM PST reply actions
Shiiiiiiit. Fixed now.
If you voted previously, you’ll need to re-vote. Sorry about that, its been a long day.
by free f.p. #14 on Jan 26, 2012 12:57 AM PST up reply actions
Fuentes
Changed my mind after the discussion with Roger yesterday. Does anyone have a more detailed scouting report on him?
From BA writeup in prospect handbook:
Highly pursued by Rangers, Yankees, and others attracted by his strength, bat speed, and short, balanced swing. Struck out a lot in rookie ball but the contact he did make was loud. Offers lots of raw power. Below average runner who profiles best in left field, though he probably has the arm for spot duty in right. Probably still another year away from being ready for full season ball.
Also, in what’s probably a bit of an indictment of the system, on the prospect depth chart he’s our #1 listed LF.
- in LF only because so many of our OFs are considered as CF and RF candidates. Clearly guys like Peguero and Parker would slot ahead of Fuentes as LF prospects.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Agreed, but the Giants are sure to remedy that by drafting Victor Roache at #20 in June!!!!!
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
On the Draft
While the re-stock pitching is the best guess for the 1st round pick, the Stanford SS and 3B might get monitored. I think Diekroeger will either play himself up above the 20th pick or take a tumble, but Stephen Piscotty might be a Joe Panik type pick – polished college bat, won the Cape Cod batting title, not much power but a pretty good frame. Ability to play all 4 corners. Contact hitter. Not a very “hot” pick, but that’s been the MO as well for the Giants the past couple years. And that positional flexibility, sweet music to the Braintrust’s ears.
At some point you have to get some high reward type tools into the system. Those guys cost a lot on the market.
+1
I hope that they don’t go with Piscotty or Diekroeger, although they both fit John Barr’s typical target profile and I doubt Roache will still be around at #20. I just don’t see Piscotty developing enough power for a future 3B and I don’t see any way that Diekroeger sticks at SS in the pros – which is the only spot that I think his bat will play at. I think that the Giants will go with a power corner OF/IF college bat (who played in the Cape League) or an advanced college or HS pitcher. At this early date, I have no idea who will be available at #20, but if I had to make an educated guess I would say that the Giants will take a college corner OF, 3b or SS. Next most likely, IMO, is a HS pitcher. Depending on what happens with Cain’s extension negotiations, I think that Sabes will still be in a full win now mode. I see no way that he picks a HS position player, because even if a real stud happens to fall to them at #20 the new CBA cap rules will make the Giants not take a chance on him.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I wonder how much the new CBA will affect things in the end. I mean $1mil bucks dangled at a high school kid is still going to sway most of them in the end. It’s a lot of money, and the cap will still be there (for the first couple classes anyway) when you come out again, so the chances of improving your stock enough for it to matter (rather than dropping as lots of high school kids do) doesn’t seem to me enough to turn down what’s still a substantial payday. Especially since they’re also able to get started on the path to the real payday sooner by signing.
In the end, strategies might not change that much; just the numbers.
Of course, I think you’re quite right that the Giants will be scared off by any high upside HS position player. Not because of the CBA though. Just because they always seem to be.
Little tidbit on the HS front – Correa has a “strong Vanderbilt commit” – not sure if this is actually true. To Roger’s point, $1MM bucks and the chance to get going is pretty strong. Who knows for sure, but my Vandy connection said they’re pretty worried about Correa due to his financial needs, obviously the higher he goes the more likely that commit is gone. Correa is somebody else along with Roache that I don’t see falling but I would love to see the Giants take a shot at.
When talking about a HS position player are you referring to somebody as highly rated as Buxton or Trey Williams? Or the next guys down, such as Joey Gallo, Winkler or Lewis Brinson? I agree, I don’t see the G’s going that route, but maybe they should. Brinson in particular looks like a high risk high reward type.
Well, it won’t likely affect any HS kid that gets drafted in about the first 10 overall picks, because the recommended slots at the top of the draft have gone up significantly. I have a feeling that the vast majority of the MLB teams are going to play it conservatively the first year or 2, and that the elite HS players (beyond the first 10 picks or so) are going to overplay their hand for at least the first year. I think the kids will be thinking that they have way more leverage than they actually do and it won’t sink in for them until the new signing deadline ends in July. I have a feeling that there are going to be a lot of happy college coaches when this Aughst rolls around. In subsequent years, I have a feeling that the HS kids will reduce their demands and that there will be several teams that figure out a formula on how to sign a few well over-slot draftees in the first 10 rounds, while also signing a few well under-slot draftees.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
It’ll be interesting to see what happens. The big losers appear to be college juniors drafted in the top say 5 rounds who have absolutely no leverage at all. They’re just getting squeezed.
+1
Although there should be a very slight premium for college juniors beyond the 2nd-tier that will sign immediately for well under-slot. I think teams will give them a bit more money than in previous years just to have a moderate prospect that also gives them an immediate chunk of $$$ to spend on an over-slot bonus for a higher-upside draftee.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Fuentes now…Valdez at 40. Valdez is interesting, seems to have the tools.
I'm a Giants Fan, but I'll always be rooting for Matt Downs
Adopted Son:Dan Burkhart , Future Backup To Buster Posey.
The case for Chris Heston
I don’t get the recent Kiechnick love. You guys do realize that he’ll be 2 months beyond the age of 25 once the regular season starts and he has yet to prove he can handle AA pitching over 1.5 seasons of trying?
If you want to vote for a worthy vet then how about Chris Heston?
1. Heston is 15 months younger than Kieschnick.
2. Heston is a proven durable starter (throwing 149 and 151 innings the last 2 seasons).
3. He’s a groundball machine. (GB% in his 3 pro seasons are 60%, 57%, & 58%, GO/AO in 2010=2.20).
4. For an extreme GB pitcher he still gets a good deal of K’s (last 2 season’s K/9=7.8 & 7.5).
5. He’s shown well above-average control – (last 2 season’s K/9=2.4 & 2.0).
6. His stats should improve as he moves up the ladder, since he has been a bit unlucky the last 2 seasons (BABIP=.322, .333)
7. He gets noticeably better and stronger as the season progresses.
8. If he continues his progression and is successful in the EL this season he has a great chance to make the SF roster in 2013.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I like Heston. Good suggestion.
I’ve been voting Fuentes, but I guess I can see the appeal of Kiesch. His biggest problem has been health, with his recurrent back problems over the last couple of years. I guess I can see someone thinking if he could ever stay healthy he’s just a phone call away from providing some kind of lefty thumper bat off the bench. He is athletic, provides solid D, good arm, has power, and isn’t too far from the majors.
That said, I’m not voting for him here. But I would have him on the list by this point if the list were more closely oriented to mine.
Yeah, I’m not saying that Kieschnick is a reach at this point, just that I think there are several better candidates due to Roger’s questionable back health and his statistical futilty in AA. I’d be interested to hear from anybody that saw him play in 2011 on how the injury affected his play on defense for Richmond.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
He was playing LF when I saw him, and it looked like his mobility/range was being affected. His arm was still quite good.
put rubber on the toe
Marvin Barrios, come on I'll show you your bedroom. Don't stay on the phone too long to Panama, please.
by foothillsfan on Jan 26, 2012 11:18 AM PST up reply actions
I’ve been voting Fuentes but in a moment of weakness voted for Roger K in an attempt to get him off the board. Back injuries are the worst. Contact issues are pretty bad as well, but he’s toiling away, maybe he gets healthy finally. He has a good arm, good D, and his stats aren’t that bad. He’s just getting old.
I’ve been voting for Heston for a few rounds now – starting pitcher who’s steadily risen through the system and will be at AA to start the season. Much more valuable at this point in my opinion than guys in the rookie leagues who may or may not make it as far as A ball in the future.
California Leaguers beware: Chris Gloor will strike you out faster than you can say "Quinnipiac", or he would have if he had pitched more than five innings this year before getting hurt...
by crazedcrustacean on Jan 26, 2012 10:46 AM PST up reply actions
roger keischnik (sp)
Lolol wasn’t he top ten at some point. I’ve been out of these threads for a while but man I can’t believe he isn’t top 30 anymore
Sometimes you just have to look death in the face and say whatever man
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Proud parent of Jeff Keppinger's better half
by operation carrot on Jan 26, 2012 11:39 AM PST via Android app reply actions
As I said yesterday, Thomas Neal didn’t even manage to make the Top 30 of Cleveland’s system and their system is truly dreadful (29 out of 30 in BA’s org rankings). These things happen. Plus the Giants, even when their system was producing elite high end talent, wasn’t very deep and you got to iffy prospects pretty quickly even in the best of times.
To be fair, though, Kieschnick’s 2009 season in the CAL gave a lot for evaluators to project on, and he was certainly athletic with plenty of above-average tools.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
It was ok. It wasn’t extraordinary, certainly not as good as Neal’s was that same year. Basically he was the player he was expected to be: good power, big K’s, nice athlete.
Yeah, Neal’s year was much better, but Kiesch’s year was good enough confirmation of his best traits to put him solidly within the top 10 for the 2009-10 offseason. I could only see the possibility of 8 guys (Buster, MadBum, Neal, Adrianza, Bowker, Pill, Pucetas and RafRod) being ranked higher than him at that time – though I probably would have had him at #8. Don’t forget that Barnes and Alderson had already been traded and AnVil was already under suspicion for murder at that time.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Yeah you’re probably right. Although, let me adjust your list a bit. Bowker would no longer have been prospect eligible (even the previous year, he had 350 big league PA in 2008), and I would never have considered putting Pucetas or Pill in the Top 10. Or frankly RafRod either. Adrianza was coming off a so so first full season in the Sally so probably I’d have had him below Kieschnick, too. That gets it down to only 3!
On the other hand I’d put in Wheeler, certainly, and probably Joseph as well (the two top draftees from that year), probably Crawford (that was the year he had that huge spurt in SJ before crashing in the EL), and for me probably Peguero, who had just ended that season by being named the MVP in the Cal League playoffs.
So that would put Kiesch at #8 for me that year. Another guy who was hot on some lists (including BA’s) that year was Runzler who had done the 5 level trifecta in ’09.
I voted Heston
His numbers looked pretty good, though I understand his age throws some people off, and he hasn’t played beyond
I think Kieschnick may get some prospect support for being a high draft pick (3rd round) but he’s older than Buster Posey and Conor Gillaspie, both of whom have shown more success at higher levels.
Irrational Conor Gillaspie fanboy.
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