Community Prospect List #36
by free f.p. #14 on Jan 23, 2012 7:01 PM PST
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PrintDe Jesus wins the runoff. Here's the poll for #36. This poll will close tomorrow, January 24th, at 7pm PST.
Please do not rec these posts. We don't want them to clutter up the recommended FanPosts section.
The list so far:
1. Gary Brown
2. Joe Panik
3. Tommy Joseph
4a. Eric Surkamp
4b. Heath Hembree
7. Andrew Susac
9. Kyle Crick
10. Ehire Adrianza
11. Josh Osich
12. Clayton Blackburn
13. Adalberto Mejia
14. Adam Duvall
15. Conor Gillaspie
16. Ricky Oropesa
17. Jarrett Parker
18a. Chuckie Jones
18b. Mike Kickham
20. Kendry Flores
21. Jacob Dunnington
22. Angel Villalona
23. Charlie Culberson
24. Jesus Galindo
25. Seth Rosin
26. Chris Dominguez
27. Brett Bochy
28. Ryan Cavan
29. Shawn Payne
30. Hector Correa
31. Lorenzo Mendoza
32. Joan Gregorio
33. Rafael Rodriguez
34. Chris Marlowe
35. Enmanuel De Jesus
The player's first name links to his Baseball Cube profile page, and his last name links to his Fangraphs profile page.
Jean Delgado (His first name is his BB-Ref profile, his BC profile only showed fielding stats.)
Kentrell Hill
Carlos Valdez
If you want to see any names added to the poll, mention them in the comments. Vote away!
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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Tomlinson
Contact seemed to carry over well to the Sally, good speed, OPB….tools ! Curious to see how he handles the next level.
I'm a Giants Fan, but I'll always be rooting for Matt Downs
Adopted Son:Dan Burkhart , Future Backup To Buster Posey.
Tomlinson only played 2 games in the Sally, though. I wouldn’t want to be basing anything I thought about him on that. Heck, Adrianza had a 1.292 OPS in AAA at the age of 18 in that same number of PA.
LOL…in my desire to find a SS with a bat in the Giants system, I totally missed that. I’ll stick with my vote based on the scouting about speed, contact, and fielding.
I'm a Giants Fan, but I'll always be rooting for Matt Downs
Adopted Son:Dan Burkhart , Future Backup To Buster Posey.
But you can take some comfort in the fact that the Giants felt confident enough in Tomlinson’s bat and defense to promote him to Augusta for their playoff series. We all know how the Giants like to stack their postseason minor league rosters – and they had other more obvious candidates than Tomlinson.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
the Giants felt confident enough in Tomlinson’s bat and defense to promote him to Augusta for their playoff series.
I need some optimism this off season, so I’m just going to hang on to this one. :-)
I'm a Giants Fan, but I'll always be rooting for Matt Downs
Adopted Son:Dan Burkhart , Future Backup To Buster Posey.
You’re right, my memory failed me. The 2 games that Tomlinson played were the last 2 of the regular season – not the first 2 playoff games. However, the last 2 games of the regular season might as well have been playoff games, because the Giants were out of the playoffs at that point. They only made it in by winning the last regular season game and prevailing through the Sally tie-breaker rules.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Otero
Feels like a Tim Worrell middle relief guy. Not a true closer, but a very steady setup sort of pitcher with the right attitude.
"The knowledge of the game is inversely proportional to the price of the seat." ---Bill Veeck. •Read My Blarrrgh...er, um....Comic. That doesn't really come across so well when said sarcastically. The Lunatic Fringe•
Seems like it might be possible to see Otero in that light, but what do you know about the quality of his pitches? Not knowing much about Otero, other than what I read in the stat sheets and see rumored on prospect sites, I find it hard to see him as deserving of being ranked ahead of younger relievers that I believe have more upside and better stuff – Derek Law, Ray Black, Tyler Mizenko, and even Demondre Arnold (even if you believe that he will only be a reliever). Maybe you’ve seen him pitch or have heard scouts talk about him?
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Low-90’s fastball, but with a ton of movement. Good change up, and a solid enough slider to work with. Excellent control, and good ground ball rates.
The truth is, without his injury that cost him most of 2010, he’d likely be in the Top 20. He could do a bit better to miss bats, but he’s the type of reliever who won’t hurt himself with walks, and will keep the ball in the park (barring four home runs in the PCL in the second half of his first full year back).
"The knowledge of the game is inversely proportional to the price of the seat." ---Bill Veeck. •Read My Blarrrgh...er, um....Comic. That doesn't really come across so well when said sarcastically. The Lunatic Fringe•
by BruteSentiment on Jan 24, 2012 8:53 PM PST up reply actions
Of course, one thing about making a Worrell comp is that by the time he got here, Tim was a finished product. But he must mostly a pretty bad pitcher through his cost control years when he mostly served as a swing man, long relief type. It wasn’t until he was in his 30s that he really was what you’d call steady.
His first 5 years seasons (of over 20 IP at least) produced ERAs of 4.92, 3.05, 5.16, 5.24 and 4.15 (ERA+ of 84, 132, 76, 89, and 99).
Fair enough
I expect better of Otero, considering his cost-control years will be his prime health years.
I also expect we’ll see Otero in the majors sometime this year. He’s one of the three relievers I see backing up the major league bullpen, along with Correa and Hembree, and he’s the most polished of the three, if the one with the lowest ceiling.
"The knowledge of the game is inversely proportional to the price of the seat." ---Bill Veeck. •Read My Blarrrgh...er, um....Comic. That doesn't really come across so well when said sarcastically. The Lunatic Fringe•
by BruteSentiment on Jan 24, 2012 8:58 PM PST up reply actions
Arnold
Watch the video, see the frame and arm-speed, read the stats, what more can I say? I’m moving on to somebody else if Arnold doesn’t win this round, cuz I need some stimulation.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Not much to like. Even his good year wasn’t very good. I wouldn’t put it past him to hit a bunch of homers at Fresno and get back on the radar, though.
I was just thinking that Leonardo Fuentes (who i like somebit) is like an 18 year old Kieschnick who’s 4 levels lower. So which one does that mean I should like more?
I’m on Otero again. He’s my Darkhorse to throw some big league innings this year, though truth be told, both Arnold and Tomlinson would be above Otero on my list, but 15 through 35 is littered with so many players I wouldn’t rank I’m all flustered with my ceiling/floor valuations.
"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean
by Smotheredinhugs on Jan 24, 2012 6:28 AM PST reply actions
I could see both Otero and Correa getting the call before either of those guys, unless Hembree is just so unhittable to start the year that he forces the issue.
California Leaguers beware: Chris Gloor will strike you out faster than you can say "Quinnipiac", or he would have if he had pitched more than five innings this year before getting hurt...
by crazedcrustacean on Jan 24, 2012 11:49 AM PST up reply actions
What he said. Remember about 4 years ago, Otero was a hot relief prospect, but a string of injuries delayed him a few years. Plus they don’t have to put Hembree on the 40 man this year, so they’ll probably try and avoid it.
"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean
by Smotheredinhugs on Jan 24, 2012 3:31 PM PST up reply actions
What do people think about Jean Delgado? All I know is that he’s not quite 19, he’s a middle infielder (but may not have the glove for short?), and his walk rate in Arizona was outtasight.
Besides the SSS in Arizona, high walk rate doesn’t mean a whole lot to me without any power to go with it. I’ve never seen the kid play, but as far as I’m concerned, the walks could just as well indicate that he was overmatched at the plate and never went up there looking to drive the ball as they could indicate that he has a good eye/approach.
I’m certainly hoping to change my opinion once we get a larger sample on him. As with all Giants prospects, I’m hoping for the best.
Well, two different rules of thumb: 1) walk rates normalize quickly (though there are questions about that at the lowest levels); and 2) power develops last. Remember, Pablo Sandoval had a .373 SLG in the AZL and .322 SLG in the Sally.
That said, Delgado did appear to be a bit of a two true outcomes guy in the AZL. He BB’d or K’d in 35% of his PA.
By normalization, do you mean that his walk rate last year is likely to regress toward a mean? Or do you mean that a high walk rate at a lower level is likely to be a harbinger of good things to come?
Regarding Delgado’s AZL stats, I still think that a hitter who is confident and capable of hitting at any given level is going to be driving the ball when he sees pitches in the zone as opposed to waiting out pitchers for a walk. I know he’s so young that it will take years for his power to develop, but it would have been nice to see more doubles in that AZL sample (I looked at his BBRef page earlier; memory says he had five total XBH in 99 PA). Given the likelihood that many of the pitchers facing him were youngsters with control issues, I’m skeptical of the high walk rate because his approach may well have been to get up there and hope that the pitcher would walk him because he didn’t feel confident taking a swing.
My personal biases are in play here…when I played (and I was a mediocre hitter at the high school varsity level, my highest) I would take the same approach against a good pitcher if I didn’t think I could hit him. Plus, when it comes to preference for rating prospects, I’d rather have a young guy who is aggressive at the plate while hitting the ball hard. Power does develop last, but it’s easier to develop a patient approach than it is to learn to hit the ball with authority, IMO.
Thanks for all your information and counterpoints, y’all.
Or do you mean that a high walk rate at a lower level is likely to be a harbinger of good things to come
This one. Although this is definitely also true,
Given the likelihood that many of the pitchers facing him were youngsters with control issues,
which is why the lowest levels are less reliable indicators.
Delgado's an interesting propsect
I’m not yet sure what to make of him, but I was a bit troubled that the Giants already seemed to have conceded the move to 2B after only a few weeks in the AZL. Obviously, he’s much more of a prospect if he could stay at SS. On the other hand, his patience at the plate is a good sign for a guy his age. I expect that Cristian Otero (who was in Scottsdale but not on the AZL roster) was obviously the better defender and true future SS between the two P.R. infield draftees (although his bat isn’t as good as Delgado’s). That being said, if I had to rank all three 2011 P.R. draftees right now I’d have Christian Diaz at the head of the pack. Diaz’s projectable frame, raw power, and arm strength supply a lot of hope to dream on.
We do have video on him from before the draft and he appears to have decent tools, but he needs to make some major adjustments in his swing. Here’s what I wrote about him right after the draft:
Jean Delgado, SS, RHH, Caguas Military Acad. (5’11", 155) DOB=2/5/93
He looks to have a real wiry strength and athleticism. He’s skinny now, but if he can add about 15 pounds he could be very dangerous with the bat. Reportedly, he’s not the most accomplished defensive SS, but from the video below I see definite potential and a more than adequate arm. Perfect Game named Delgado as the 5th best overall prospect, and the #1 hitting prospect, on the island in May. They had this to say about him:
JEAN DELGADO – ss, Isabel Flores HS, Juncos
Slender 6-0/150, polished player, whippy bat speed with gap power, quick feet, soft hands, 6.6. runner.
From the videos below, it appears to me that he has good bat-speed and very good hand-eye coordination at the plate, but he has too much excess motion and length in his swing that could make it very difficult to hit with consistent contact as he advances in pro ball.
Vid 1 (Batting practice – Florida – Jan. 2011): http://www.baseballwebtv.com/Video.aspx?videoID=50642
Vid 2 (Infield practice – Florida – Jan. 2011): http://www.baseballwebtv.com/Video.aspx?videoID=50643
Vid 3 (60 yard dash – Florida – Jan. 2011): http://www.baseballwebtv.com/Video.aspx?videoID=50641
Vid 4 (IF + BP – 2011): http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?topic_id=18674140&content_id=15423943
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Diaz
I’m with you, Fla. I would rank Diaz ahead of Delgado and then Otero out of the three.
Out of the guys who were drafted in 2011, who are you folks most excited about seeing playing professionally for an extended period of time? My list (and apologies if any of these guys did indeed make their pro debuts this past summer while I wasn’t paying attention): Diaz, Tyler Mizenko, Drew Stiner (once he returns from suspension), the second go-around for Kentrell Hill and Mitchell Beacom.
Two other questions: Did we sign Paulencu only to subsequently have him fail his physical? And did we sign Tyler Leslie, the kid out of Silverado HS in California?
No idea about Paulenu (sp?) but I believe Leslie did not sign.
by free f.p. #14 on Jan 24, 2012 12:32 PM PST up reply actions
If I had just taken the extra 30 seconds to look it up...
Paulencu, I believe, did not sign, but I could be wrong about that.
by free f.p. #14 on Jan 24, 2012 12:35 PM PST up reply actions
Apparently, he did sign
as the following articles confirm, but I couldn’t find anything about the contract being voided although I do seem to recall having heard that at some point.
California Leaguers beware: Chris Gloor will strike you out faster than you can say "Quinnipiac", or he would have if he had pitched more than five innings this year before getting hurt...
by crazedcrustacean on Jan 24, 2012 1:37 PM PST up reply actions
Paulencu signed and flew to Scotsdale for his physical, but he must have failed it because the Giants never finalized the deal. The same thing happened in 2010 with The Giants’ 23rd round draftee, Alec Asher, when the Giants found bone spurs in his elbow during his physical.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Tyler Leslie
He didn’t sign, and is scheduled to pitch for Bryce Harper’s alma mater, Southern Nevada JuCo, this year. He will be eligible for the 2012 draft, but the Giants have to get his written permission in order to draft him again.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
it’s interesting they were so involved in PR in last year’s draft. PR baseball seems to have really declined in general since it was added to the draft. There are just so few MLB players coming out of there at this point compared to when it was part of the free international market.
Mye theory is, and I have no way of ever proving it, that the Giants sent some higher-level scouts down to check out Jorge Lopez, the P.R. high school pitcher who was drafted in the 1-S round (with the idea of possibly drafting him with their #49 or #86 pick), and ended up seeing several other worthy prospects while they were on the island. Just like when investing in stocks, oftentimes a region or sector can get so oversold that a savvy investor can find hidden gems where everybody else has given up. I think that it’s a good strategy for the Giants, and I also think that P.R. will see much more scrutiny from all the teams now that the new CBA makes under- and at-slot draft signees so desirable.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
So you are saying that the Giants got lucky because the other teams were so short sighted ? I would be willing to go with that theory.
I also think you may be spot on with your last sentence.
I'm a Giants Fan, but I'll always be rooting for Matt Downs
Adopted Son:Dan Burkhart , Future Backup To Buster Posey.
Fuentes
Sigh… I guess I’m just a sucker for toolsy outfielders…
"When the Giants call up a 21-year-old Venezuelan catcher who started the year in San Jose, was hitting well with poor plate discipline, but wasn't on Baseball America's preseason list of the organization's 30 best prospects, only good things can happen."
Congratulations, Hector!
power hitting prospects
seem in real short supply. After Oropesa, on our list, not much at all.
Marvin Barrios, come on I'll show you your bedroom. Don't stay on the phone too long to Panama, please.
by foothillsfan on Jan 24, 2012 10:31 AM PST up reply actions
Power is a problem to be sure, but after Oropesa you’ve got Dominguez, Villalona, and (if you squint) Chuckie Jones. I agree that I’d like to see them address that in the next draft, though. Even for the better prospects, you’ve got LTP, Sanchez (maybe), Susac (maybe), Duvall, and Oropesa, which isn’t exactly Murderer’s Row.
by free f.p. #14 on Jan 24, 2012 12:39 PM PST up reply actions
Joseph and Susac have very real power tools at least and they’re the likeliest to be playing in the majors in the next few years. Agree I’d like to see them get more power in the org. That’s why I really wanted them to take Castellanos with the Brown pick, though it’s hard to argue with that one thus far.
Likewise, I really wanted them to take Mikie Mahtook with the Joe Panik pick, but it is also tough to argue that one.
by free f.p. #14 on Jan 24, 2012 2:50 PM PST up reply actions
Relievers
Seems like every year when we’re talking about prospects, there’s a whole mess of live armed relievers and for years this has been considered one of the strengths of the Giants system. So I thought I’d look back and see what kind of value we’ve been getting out this pipeline in recent memory, and it looks to me like the answer is pretty underwhelming.
Going back to the year 2000, I found 22 home grown pitchers who’ve thrown as many as 10 innings in relief in a season. Only 12 have managed to do this in multiple seasons.
Upping the standard ever so slightly to 20 IP in a season, we’ve produced 17 pitchers who’ve managed to do it once, and 10 who’ve managed to make 20 IP more than once (5 of those 10 actually came up thru the system as starters).
So what happens then if we put a minimum level of value. How about 20 IP of 100 ERA+ or better. Now we’re down to 13 pitchers, a total of 21x (six of whom came up as starters).
And if we up it again? 30 IP of 100 ERA+, we have 9 pitchers, for a total of 16×. And if anyone can guess who those 9 pitchers are you should win a prize.
And finally, how many relief pitchers since 2000 have managed to give us 20IP of 100 ERA+ value more than once? Four.
Brian Wilson and Sergio Romo have both accomplished this four times (and Wilson has a fifth season in ‘08 that’s good enough to toss into the pile as well). And two former starting pitchers, Kevin Correia and Brad Hennessey accomplished it twice, in each case one of those two seasons was about half starting and half relief (and as BRef’s splits pages don’t list ERA+ it’s difficult to say exactly what their relief ERA+ was, but it does appear that in both cases it was above 100). Correia has gone on to have useful seasons as a starting pitcher. While Hennessey was apparently done in by his one really good season as a reliever (2007, when he posted a 132 ERA+ in 68.1 IP). The following season he had an ERA+ of 57 in 40 IP and has never been in the majors again (he missed all of 2009 and has spent the last two years being a very very bad AAA pitcher).
So essentially all of those accumulations of RP in our system have mostly produced two fantastic relief pitchers, and several other very good (Joe Nathan in 2003 for instance) to surprisingly reasonable (Billy Sadler in 2008 for instance) one off seasons.
by Roger on Jan 24, 2012 2:08 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
I wish I thought of stuff like this
I’d love to do this kind of research, but I never think of this kind of stuff before I read someone else writing about it.
by free f.p. #14 on Jan 24, 2012 2:52 PM PST up reply actions
For those who like WAR (and I know not everyone does for looking at RP), here’s the full fWAR value they’ve gotten from all of those 10IP or more seasons of relief pitching:
Aaron Fultz 1.0 WAR over 3 seasons
Ryan Vogelsong, -0.4 WAR over 1 season
Joe Nathan 1.1 WAR over 1 season
David Aardsma -0.3 WAR over 1 season
Kevin Correia 2.1 WAR over 3 seasons (includes some starts)
Scott Munter 0.2 WAR over 3 seasons
Jeremy Accardo 0.6 WAR over 1.5 seasons
Jack Taschner 0.5 WAR over 4 seasons
Brad Hennessey -0.2 WAR over 3 seasons (includes some starts)
Brian Wilson 6.9 WAR over 6 seasons
Jonathan Sanchez 0.6 WAR over 2 seasons (includes some starts)
Pat Misch 0.5 WAR over 2 seasons (includes some starts)
Alex Hinshaw -0.1 WAR over 1 season
Billy Sadler -0.4 WAR over 1 season
Sergio Romo 5.0 WAR over 4 seasons
Osiros Matos -0.1 WAR over 1 season
Merkin Valdez 0.0 WAR over 2 seasons
Dan Runzler 0.7 WAR over 2 seasons
Geno Espineli -0.3 WAR over 1 season
Erik Threets -0.2 WAR over 1 season
Waldis Joaquin 0.0 WAR over 1 season
Steve Edlefsen -0.3 WAR over 1 season
Taking Romo and Wilson out of the equation, that’s a total of 5 WAR out of 20 pitchers over 35 seasons. Romo & Wilson give us 11.9 WAR over 10 seasons.
I love the list...
..but taking a players value for only their Giants years – or for that matter, only their relieving years is selling the idea a bit short.
At least four of those players were the center pieces in trades (crappy as some of them were) as well.
"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean
by Smotheredinhugs on Jan 24, 2012 4:14 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah, like that time they traded Runzler for Scuta…oh wait. Nevermind.
by free f.p. #14 on Jan 24, 2012 4:21 PM PST up reply actions
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