Community Prospect List #35 RUNOFF
by free f.p. #14 on Jan 22, 2012 9:49 PM PST
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PrintOh look, another runoff. I'm putting 3 prospects in this one because all three were within 2 votes of each other. This poll will remain open until 7pm PST tomorrow, January 23rd.
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Enmanuel De Jesus
Vote away!
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Among these three, De Jesus
Right now, Arnold is leading 6/3/1, which I can’t understand. Yes, he’s 19. Yes, he put up great numbers so far. OTOH, he’s only thrown 27 relief innings in rookie ball and was a 25th round pick.
I mean, if you’re looking for the upside guy, De Jesus looks to have far more potential than Arnold. If you’re looking at close-to-the-majors guys who will probably contribute soon, possibly this season, Otero’s already pitched (and pretty well) in AAA. I don’t understand voting for the guy who looks like a high-risk low-reward type when there are two clearly superior options on the board. Perhaps someone can enlighten me.
Also, I don’t consider Arnold’s “potential to be a starter” as a valid justification – De Jesus already is a starter, is a couple years younger, and was just as dominant in at a comparable level. And he’s left-handed for good measure.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
They’re not comparable levels any more than the Northwest League and the SAL are comparable levels. Maybe less.
And you have to keep in mind that the DSL is a pronounced pitchers’ league — run environment is more than a run per game less than in Arizona.
And you really have to keep in mind that DSL stats mean little if anything. If there’s any correlation between how players do there and the careers they go on to, it eludes the naked eye.
Actually, hitters who go on to be major leaguers have almost a universal history of dominating in the DSL, so their correlation is fairly strong, with maybe a caveat for catchers who really do seem to develop late (and peak early apparently from what GP wrote on another thread, which is a pretty bad combination!).
On pitchers, though, I agree with that statement entirely.
Well, i agree with you I think, but I guess the argument for Arnold over DeJesus is that we have more reliable scouting reports on Arnold and know he throws with good velocity while that is an unknown with DeJesus, who may be dominating young hitters with deception that won’t work at higher levels.
Also, as Evan notes below the DSL and AZL aren’t remotely comparable levels.
That said, i think I’ll vote for DeJesus here. The starter and lefty things do it for me. Also, while the K’s may not carry, the control has a better chance of doing so.
Otero himself doesn’t have any velocity and seems to me to be a sort of older, relieving, righthanded version of DeJesus, sort of a ROOGY, I guess.
I'll concede that the DSL is not the same as the AZL
But I think they are similarly useless for projecting performance, particularly based solely on stats. I wouldn’t trust Arnold’s 27 IP a lot more than De Jesus’s 47 just because he was in a slightly better level – this isn’t A+ v. AA or AA v. AAA.
If De Jesus is just using deception to dominate young hitters, I wouldn’t imagine things would be much different in the AZL either – his K rate may go down, but if his delivery is good enough to turn bad stuff into a 10 K/9 that’s pretty impressive. I’m just not convinced the AZL is that much better than the DSL.
Otero should get a lot of credit for being in AAA and pitching well, even if he is quite old and has the lowest of ceilings. Chances are, Arnold and De Jesus won’t even make it that far.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Complex leagues are pretty worthless stats, but I think there is a magnitude of scale difference between them and DSL/VSL. For one, the AZL does get a fairly significant sampling of American college players (either top draft picks just dropping by on their way to other leagues or guys who like say Kelby Tomlinson who are stuck behind higher draft picks and stay there all season). The DSL (and VSL) by contrast is made up of, I don’t know, maybe 70% players who will never be deemed worthy even to bring over to the states even at the AZL/GCL level. And then secondly there’s still an age difference worth taking note of, so that the DSL/VSL will have a lot more 16 and 17 year olds than you’ll see playing in the complex leagues.
Those are two pretty significant differences to slough off as meaningless.
Not meaningless
Just not particularly meaningful. I’m not going to give Arnold a big advantage just because he was in the AZL to De Jesus’ DSL. A small one, but nothing that makes him a clearly superior player.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
I just think Arnold’s higher velo means he has a better chance of long-term success. I’m hopeful that he can be a starter eventually, but even if he has to stay in the pen I think (given what we know about the two guys right now) that he’s more likely to someday help the big-league club.
Looking forward to seeing both guys pitch at a higher minor-league level. Is there any chance De Jesus pitches in the AZL this year? I think they should give Arnold a shot as a starter for S-K along with Mejia and Crick.
Cube
What is up with Otero’s baseball cube stats? I just see fielding stats. He doesn’t show up in the team stats list (for pitchers) either.
Also: holy crap. Did Hinshaw really have a 9.9 k/9 and 1.0 K/BB with Fresno.
Bye Travis and thanks for 2010! Good luck with the Brewers!
Hmm, that is weird. Not really sure what to do, because he’s the only “Dan Otero” in their database.
If you prefer, here is his BB-Ref page.
by free f.p. #14 on Jan 23, 2012 11:50 AM PST up reply actions
OT
But I was looking at the Rangers’ BA Top 10 ranking this morning and my eye was caught by their Top Prospects of the Decade List:
TOP PROSPECTS
OF THE DECADE
Year Player, Pos 2011 Org
2002 Hank Blalock, 3b Rays
2003 Mark Teixeira, 3b Yankees
2004 Adrian Gonzalez, 1b Red Sox
2005 Thomas Diamond, rhp Twins
2006 Edinson Volquez, rhp Padres
2007 John Danks, lhp White Sox
2008 Elvis Andrus, ss Rangers
2009 Neftali Feliz, rhp Rangers
2010 Neftali Feliz, rhp Rangers
2011 Martin Perez, lhp Rangers
Holy cow, that’s I think the most amazing list I’ve ever seen! Setting aside the young Martin Perez, you’ve got one miss on that list with 6 All Stars! (and really it should be 7, I’m not sure why Danks has never been an All Star though I suppose he’s got an excellent chance to be one this year). Aside from the one miss of Thomas Diamond, you’ve got close to best case development scenarios for a full decade. And while the list includes two bad trade ideas (Gonzalez and Danks, though truth be told Danks has no doubt benefitted greatly from getting to work with Don Cooper), that’s more than compensated by the fact that they managed to get about 19 wins out of Teixiera and then turn him into two future top prospects+, and turning Volquez into a future MVP.
That’s really an extraordinary bit of sustained development success. Consider that the Giants, who themselves have gotten a ton of value out of their system this decade have such misfires as Jerome Williams, Jesse Foppert, Merkin Valdez, and Angel Villalona on their list. And also consider, that the Rangers have had, during that same decade, very little success with their top overall draft picks, failing even to get two of them signed, though they did of course, get three very valuable months of Cliff Lee out of one of them:
TOP DRAFT PICKS
OF THE DECADE
Year Player, Pos 2011 Org
2002 Drew Meyer, SS Angels
2003 John Danks, LHP White Sox
2004 Thomas Diamond, RHP Twins
2005 John Mayberry, OF Phillies
2006 Kasey Kiker, LHP Rangers
2007 Blake Beavan, RHP Mariners
2008 Justin Smoak, 1B Mariners
2009 Matt Purke, LHP Nationals
2010 Jake Skole, OF Rangers
2011 Kevin Matthews, LHP R
That’s a real insight into the development of the Rangers move up into respectability and then superpower over the last decade. Of course, there’s also a good lesson in the value of spending money on talent acquisition. Teixiera fell to them because of bonus demands, and he’s still the third highest bonus in team history. The paid a lot to buy Danks out of his college commitment. And they gave a six figure bonus to Volquez (albeit under a different name and faudulant age). And their current list which I think is probably #1 in baseball if you accept Darvish as a prospect, or merely top three if you don’t) includes top dollar signing bonuses for Darvish, Profar, and Leonys Martin.
For those who wonder about the Giants system within the greater MLB context, consider that in the Rangers list, their #5 prospect (Martin) looks like a better and more advanced version of our #1 (Brown), while they’re #10 (the awesomely named Rougned Odor) compares well to our #4 (Panik).
by Roger on Jan 23, 2012 9:39 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
I like Jon Daniels a lot. He has hit on Hamilton and Cruz, 2 guys a whole lot of teams had a shot at, in Cruz case every single team in baseball. The pitching is very impressive. Holland was a big time steal on draft day. Being aggressive with international spending should pay them huge dividends.
They have lost their ace 2 years running and don’t seem to be sweating it whatsoever. Very well run organization.
Of course there’s something to being lucky as well. They themselves waived Nelson Cruz at one point, and when nobody claimed him they kept him in the org.
On the other hand, they are showing that they have a really tremendous development team. Jurickson Profar was considered a risk as a hitter when they signed him for $1.55 mil (many liked him better as pitcher). Elvis Andrus has become a better hitter than people thought he would be. Ian Kinsler (17th rounder) has developed at I think you have to say his ceiling. If you look at the way the obtain talent, they clearly believe in high risk, high ceiling players and I think they’re showing that they know what to do with those guys once they get them in the system.
Scouting and signing is only half the story.
Slightly OT, but your trade Timmy analysis is spot on from the other post. I think you have to see it out to the bitter end on that one. However, if, and only if, you absolutely have to trade Timmy away, Texas is where its at. First off, they have the appetite for high risk high reward trades. Second, I think their farm system is heads above the overrated Janks and underwhelming Bosox. Third, uh, I don’t think they’d give up Profar but that’s who I’d ask for to start…
Also (semi) OT
John Sickels has his farm system rankings up. The Giants are ranked 26th.
26) San Francisco Giants: This system has thinned out but is not hopeless. Pitching needs a recharge.
I feel sorry for the four teams worse than the Giants
The system seems extremely thin to me. Brown is really the only guy who seems like he has a strong chance of becoming an above-average major league starter.
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