Community Prospect List #34
by free f.p. #14 on Jan 19, 2012 5:41 PM PST
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PrintRafRod wins easily. Here's the poll for #34. This poll will be open until 6pm PST tomorrow, January 20th.
Please do not rec these posts. We don't want them cluttering up the recommended FanPosts section.
The list so far:
1. Gary Brown
2. Joe Panik
3. Tommy Joseph
4a. Eric Surkamp
4b. Heath Hembree
7. Andrew Susac
9. Kyle Crick
10. Ehire Adrianza
11. Josh Osich
12. Clayton Blackburn
13. Adalberto Mejia
14. Adam Duvall
15. Conor Gillaspie
16. Ricky Oropesa
17. Jarrett Parker
18a. Chuckie Jones
18b. Mike Kickham
20. Kendry Flores
21. Jacob Dunnington
22. Angel Villalona
23. Charlie Culberson
24. Jesus Galindo
25. Seth Rosin
26. Chris Dominguez
27. Brett Bochy
28. Ryan Cavan
29. Shawn Payne
30. Hector Correa
31. Lorenzo Mendoza
32. Joan Gregorio
33. Rafael Rodriguez
The player's first name links to his Baseball Cube profile page, and his last name links to his Fangraphs profile page.
Enmanuel De Jesus
If you want to see any names added to the poll, mention them in the comments. Vote away!
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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Love DeJesus' Rookie League numbers...
COMIN' ATCHA, FROM ANCHORAGE, ALASKA!
Fathaigh go mbuaimid!
Proud adoptive Father of Joe Panik. 2011 NWL MVP .
Job 1:14-15
Marlowe again
Dude throws hard, got an overslot bonus. I like those things
Read Me At: Twitter/Blog/MLBBonusBaby /Giants Nirvana
by Gobroks on Jan 19, 2012 5:52 PM PST via mobile reply actions
Throws really freakin’ hard. I’m leaning Marlowe’s way as well, though I need to think on it a bit more. I like Fuentes somebit as well.
I have Marlowe at 19 on my personal list and he's my 3rd highest reliever
I like his upside
Read Me At: Twitter/Blog/MLBBonusBaby /Giants Nirvana
by Gobroks on Jan 19, 2012 7:12 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Marlowe ?
OK…Marlowe
I'm a Giants Fan, but I'll always be rooting for Matt Downs
Adopted Son:Dan Burkhart , Future Backup To Buster Posey.
Serioulsy?
Marlowe over Arnold when they were on the same team in 2011, Arnold outpitched him (albeit a very SSS for Marlowe), Arnold is likely to be a starter in his pro career, and Arnold is 2.5 years younger than Marlowe?
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I don’t even think the term SSS applies here. Marlowe threw 3 innings. That’s not a small sample size, that’s statistically irrelevant. Even so I don’t see the case for saying Arnold outpitched Marlowe, who in his 3 innings of work compiled a 0.00 ERA, 15 k/9 and 5 k/bb ratio. Really, I’m not sure what outpitching those numbers would look like.
More to the point, I don’t see a compelling case for assuming Arnold will be a starter. As we saw the other day, he was unable to stay in his JC team’s starting rotation, and mostly worked as a reliever (albeit a reliever who clearly threw multiple innings) there. If he can’t stay in a Juco rotation, it’s hard to build a strong argument that he’s likely to be, and stay, in a professional rotation.
I’m leaning towards nvsfg’s and gobrok’s opinion here as well. Marlowe has huge velocity readings on his scouting report, and an overslot signing to suggest the Giants are high on him (and the Giants certainly know pitching). He seems like a solid pick here.
Then I’m going for Fuentes’ power potential. Contact issues be damned.
Cartagena, who Gobroks mentions below, was like a poor man’s Fuentes’ last year in the DSL. Flashed power, can’t make contact. And FWIW Ben Badler tweeted to me that the two of them are physically very similar players — tall, rangy, athletic, strong armed RF types.
Arnold
Yes, Marlowe has the power FB and flashes a great breaking ball, but let me remind everybody about his achilles heel:
2011 college BB/9 = 7.5!
I don’t care how good your stuff is, you’re not going to be a succesful pro pitcher with that kind of control. That’s a huge red flag, and I have trouble thinking of any successful pitcher (starter or reliever) in recent history with the type of poor control in college.
Arnold, doesn’t have the extreme control issues of Marlowe, has shown the abiltiy to sustain well above-average K-rates in both college and the pros, and has a very good probability of being a starter going forward. Yes, he had trouble breaking into the starting rotation during his one year in JuCo, but he was on a team that was 1 game away from going to the JuCo World Series, and a pitching staff with 4 sophomore starters (including 2 returning starters and 2 starters that had transferred in from major college programs (Alabama and Kennesaw State). It’s important to note that he was starting at the end of their season when they were fighting for the divsiion title and then for a spot in the JuCo World Series. In the final game of their regional tournament, Arnold started and went 8 innings without givinng up a run in a game his team eventually won 1-0 in the bottom of the 10th inning.
Finally, Arnold is athletic with a projectable frame, and he’s well ahead of Marlowe on the development curve. Marlowe was not throwing the ball anywhere near 94 mph when he was 19 years old, nor was he facing the level of competition that Arnod dominated as a 19 year old.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Cartegena
I like his frame, reported toolset and upside, but if he’s a poor man’s Fuentes then that’s a very, very poor man we’re talking about. With his disastrous rokkie year, I want to see Carlos play in the AZL before I rank him n the top 44.
They were both 17.6 years of age when they played their first pro season in the DSL, but they’re results were much different:
Fuentes – 2010: .240/.340/.380/.720 in 200 ABs, with an ISOp=.140 and HR=4, 3B=1, 2B=14
Cartegena-2011: .147/.291/.231/.521 in 147 ABs, with an ISOp=.084 and HR=2, 3B=1, 2B=4
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Fla, I love your passion in these threads. While I follow the G’s prospects, I have nowhere near the amount of information you, Roger, Quincy, Gobroks and others have. My lists rarely go past twenty-five each year.
At this point in the list, all I can do is look at is the numbers, age, and the limited amount of information available. My personal preferences toward a particular player make up start to skew my picks after that. I mean, look at my adopted son :-)
I'm a Giants Fan, but I'll always be rooting for Matt Downs
Adopted Son:Dan Burkhart , Future Backup To Buster Posey.
I have no information
Just opinions. Many of which are ill-informed and poorly constructed. But I don’t go to minor league games, and I don’t even look for videos on YouTube – everything I have is what others post or can easily access (like Fangraphs). I think I’m right a lot, but I think anyone who reads what I write should have that disclaimer in the back of their head.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Yeah
My natural position is pretty damned stubborn. You should meet my father, though – we still can’t convince him that ‘y’ is sometimes a vowel. This is a guy whose native language is not English arguing with four natural-born Americans about a simple rule of grammar and he won’t admit he’s wrong. Trust me, I could be (and used to be) a lot worse.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
My natural position is pretty damned stubborn.
I knew there was a reason I liked you :-)
I'm a Giants Fan, but I'll always be rooting for Matt Downs
Adopted Son:Dan Burkhart , Future Backup To Buster Posey.
We have a few members in my family who will so fervently and sincerely insist that encyclopedias and resource books/websites are wrong on dates, figures, names etc.
Don’t take it personally. It’s all just opinion at this point. You’re opinion is certainly valid, but I do like to stimulate a little back-and-forth and get people to rethink their ideas.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Don’t take it personally.
I don’t take much personally, unless it’s an outright attack. If I wasn’t clear, I appreciate the information you provide on prospects. I’ll take any information you want to provide regarding prospects and your opinion, along with many others here, add to the reasons that make this blog a great place to get information about the Giants entire organization.
I'm a Giants Fan, but I'll always be rooting for Matt Downs
Adopted Son:Dan Burkhart , Future Backup To Buster Posey.
Yeah, I didn’t think that I had offended you, but I just wanted to make sure that you, and others on the site, know that I wasn’t trying to imply that your opinions aren’t valid with the sometimes blunt wording of my comments.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Marlowe was also drafted 20 rounds higher
And Arnold wasn’t given a huge bonus to buy out another year of school
Read Me At: Twitter/Blog/MLBBonusBaby /Giants Nirvana
by Gobroks on Jan 20, 2012 12:12 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Arnold was drafted as an 18 year old by TB (37th rd.) and as a 19 yera old by SF (25th rd)
Malrowe wasn’t drafted out of high school or after his first season in JuCo. He did get drafted as a 20 year old by Toronto (21st rd.). The age difference and projectability of Arnold, as well as his ability to be a starter, gives him the edge due to Marlowe’s wildness and reliever-only future.
Remember Jonathan Sanchez? Dirty was drafted in the 27th round in 2003 and signed for no more than Arnold just did. The same year the Giants drafted and signed Garrett Broshius in the 5th rd (the same round as Marlowe) and Justin Hedrick in the 6th rd.for a lot more money than Dirty got. Which of those three 2003 pitchers would you rate higher?
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
In general I'd always give the benefit of the doubt to the player taken earliest and given a higher bonus
Read Me At: Twitter/Blog/MLBBonusBaby /Giants Nirvana
by Gobroks on Jan 20, 2012 2:24 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Then you should be pounding the table for Bandilla now. Not only was he picked 31 spots before Marlowe, but the Gaints paid him $40K more of a signing bonus. And, if you’re going by bonus, then Carlos Valdez got more than Bandilla and Marlowe combined ($350K vs. $330K), while Simon Mercedes and Marvin Barrios both got more than Valdez.
In general, once you get past the first 100, give or take, players in any draft I don’t think the position means a whole hell of a lot when I’m evaluating – especially when we’re this far down in the Gaints’ overall list.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I’d definitely go Bandilla over Marlowe, except for be shoulder injury. That’s a game changer to me. Otherwise he’s everything Marlowe is plus left handed. But torn throwing shoulder for a guy who almost certainly a relief pitcher ceiling o begin with is as red a red flag as you could possibly wave. And the guy waving it’s ripped his shoulder too, while standing on a platform covered entirely by other red flags.
I'm more skeptical of Bandilla because of his shoulder issue
As for Valdez (I thought his name was Eric btw) I think it’s unfair to compare bonuses of a FA to a draft pick, but I think Valdez’s name should be added in the next few rounds
Read Me At: Twitter/Blog/MLBBonusBaby /Giants Nirvana
by Gobroks on Jan 20, 2012 6:56 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Also
I agree with your final point to an extent-I mean if you like Jean Delgado over Marlowe I think that’s a fair point, but 20 rounds is just too wide of a gap for me
Read Me At: Twitter/Blog/MLBBonusBaby /Giants Nirvana
by Gobroks on Jan 20, 2012 6:58 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
give me some kelby tomlinson
Adoptive father of 18th round draft pick and future ace, BRANDON ALLEN
by Nnamdi Asomugha on Jan 19, 2012 7:28 PM PST reply actions
In Honor of
Orlando Cabrera hanging up his spikes…
I go with the Cartagena connection.
Fuentes! May he someday be the 7th ballplayer to make the show from Cartagena.
I like Marlowe as well. And Arnold.
Speaking of which
In the next “add names” poll Carlos Cartagena may be a guy to look at. He received the highest int’l bonus from the Giants in the 2010 July 2 period IIRC
Read Me At: Twitter/Blog/MLBBonusBaby /Giants Nirvana
by Gobroks on Jan 19, 2012 10:37 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
6’2 and a buck ninety from the VZ!
FLA-Giant is a helluva resource.
Scroll down for last 3 years of international signings list from him.
http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2011/7/28/2302377/minor-lines-7-28-11
When does Steve S get back on the MCC? Spring training?
He usually doesn’t show up until minor league games start, about 2 weeks or so after the big club.
by free f.p. #14 on Jan 20, 2012 11:01 AM PST up reply actions
Cartagena...
That was a very ugly rookie season for Carlos (.147/.291/.231/.521). I wouldn’t be surprised to see him repeat the DSL in 2012 – and he turned 18 last month. With the Giants, I don’t put a large weight behind the signing bonus they gave a particular prospect – especially when they were 16 years old when they signed.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Hadn't heard about Cabrera
Another one in the category of aging veterans acquired by Sabean who played horribly for San Francisco and then never played again.
Let's see... players in this category or soon to be...
2012: Zito
2011: Cabrera, Rowand, Tejada, Hall, DeRosa (might still qualify eventhough he signed)
2010: Guillen, Wellemeyer
2009: Richie, Randy Johnson
2008: Dave Roberts
What about before?
He had 95 more plate appearances with the Phils and Mets but he was a dead man walking… one of my absolute least favorite Giants… Michael Tucker.
And as long as I’m cheating, Sabean’s white whale of white whales Steve Finley had 102 lousy PA with CO before calling it.
I couldn’t find any guys who strictly took their last at-bats as Giants though. Pitchers there is Jeff Fassero. Benitiez only pitched another 39 innings in the majors after the trade. You could put Steve Kline on the list but he’s kicking ass as a pitching instructor in the Sally for us.
Rowand signed a minor league deal with Florida
I think DeRosa will end up in the majors again at some point, and Zito certainly won’t be done after 2012 – if teams are still willing to take fliers on Jeff Francis they’ll take fliers on Zito.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
DeRosa signed a deal with Washington.
Still the father of two-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum.
"Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be." - John Wooden
Missed that somehow
Well, then I suppose that’s already come true.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Doesn’t mean he’ll actually have any PA.
by Nivra on Jan 21, 2012 3:29 AM PST via iPhone app up reply actions
I guess...
I mean, his wrist could implode. But it seems fairly unlikely after he refused to quit despite being almost constantly injured over two seasons with the Giants that he’ll both get injured in ST or some other way before the season stars and be out for the whole year. I think he’ll keep trying to play as long as it’s not assured he’s done and it seems unlikely he’ll suffer a season-long injury before the year starts.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
DeJesus
At this point, I think we have to start talking about DeJesus. If Mejia can be in the upper teens, DeJesus needs to be picked. They had very very similar DSL numbers, and DeJesus is younger.
The only significant differences between the two are:
(a) Mejia was moved to instructs whereas DeJesus wasn’t.
(b) DeJesus is 6 months younger.
© Very spotty scouting reports saying DeJesus throws a bit softer.
I don’t see how that can result in a drop from the upper teens to the low 30’s. Time to put him on the board.
All of this
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Me too
Read Me At: Twitter/Blog/MLBBonusBaby /Giants Nirvana
by Gobroks on Jan 20, 2012 7:00 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I dunno...
Age, age, age, age…
Both of your studies underscored the importance of age in a prospect… I think one of the problems on this board is too many older guys are getting boosts way beyond what their age would suggest is appropriate.
Getting a non top-10 prospect to the majors is already hoping for the exception to the rule.
Getting an OLD prospect to the majors is also hoping for an exception to the rule.
Thus, getting a non top-10 OLD prospect to the majors is like hoping for lightning to strike the same player twice. It’s just too improbable to ever happen. Dominguez, Cavan, Bochy, Correa, even Payne are all examples of this phenomena.
Yeah but age in the DSL doesn’t mean as much because youth is so prevalent and 17 isn’t that much of an anomaly there. If he were to go on the typical Giants promotion for DSL pitchers and spend next year in the AZL and the following the NWL and the following in the Sally, he’s a 20 year old in A ball. And that’s assuming he comes over next year which isn’t a given (they’ve had 17 year olds with good numbers, if not DeJesus’ eye popping ones, who’ve returned to the DSL at 18. Ariel Hernandez sticks in my mind as one).
And we have so little information about DSL pitchers. I’m of the opinion that there are renaissance maps of America that contain more factual information than some scouting reports of dominican teenagers. Just too little info for me until he comes to the states. That said 34 isn’t exactly a state seal of approval and he does belong on here somewhere.
The other thing about DeJesus is that the 1 scouting report we have on him doesn’t give us a great feel that his velocity is likely abvoe-average now or will be in the future. But, I agree with you that this is an appropriate range for him. Of courde, there are a ton of guys at this point that I could justify in this range. Derek Law is probably the best prospect that nobody’s mentioned yet – followed by Carlos Valdez (who is 6 months younger than Cartagena and signed for $350K), Tyler Mizenko and Christian Diaz.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Exactly.
My point is. He needs to be in the discussion now, and should’ve been above several who are already on the board like Cavan.
Especially when we're talking about such marginal guys.
He had absolutely eye-popping numbers, and although we all love Mejia, they don’t belong that far apart. Either Mejia was too high(Roger’s point) or, as I believe, DeJesus needs to be on the board already.
Both are true
I’m not sure I’d put either above Cavan (maybe Mejia) simply because Cavan’s played at a much higher level and is not only a position player but a good defensive 2B – despite the massive age difference, I don’t think one good DSL year is definitely enough to put both those guys above him. Possibly, but not definitely.
In any case, DeJesus should have been on the list already and Mejia was too high. But with most of our guys being in the low minors, and the general thinness of the system, there’s a large group of players who should be similarly ranked as they either have low ceilings or high risk. I mean, Crick is #9 and he could end up as Matt Cain or never reach AAA.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
IOL?
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
I’d assume that Valdez will play in the DSL in 2012. There’s no way I’m voting for somebody who hasn’t even shown himself in a DSL game yet.
Unless the Giants think that he just can’t psychologically handle it, I’d be surprised and disappointed if they don’t bring Valdez to the minor league ST camp in March and then have him playing in the AZL in June. Recall that he has already played a full calendar year in the DPL, toured the USA with a DPL all-star team last spring, and been in training at the Giants D.R. facilities since last July. The all-star tour is most important, because it means that he’s already been cleared by the state dept. for a visa (so his birth certificate has been verified). He’ll be 17.9 when at the beginning of April and is a physical mature athlete.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Even so. He never got onto the DSL roster last summer even though he signed with plenty of season left iirc. Outside of the million dollar bonus babies, I can’t think of a single Latin player who ever skipped the DSL/VSL level entirely, and in both their cases they were brought to instrux which Valdez does not appear o have been even though again he’d been in the org for a few months at that point.. I can’t presume such advanced assignments without solid evidence (and since he was signed by the same guy as Fausto Carmona, on this particular day I’m not sure how far I can presume his youth either).
You could be right, but I can’t recall the Giants ever signing a (non-Cuban) Caribbean prospect that already had a visa to play in the USA. When you add that to his age, his physical size, and the fact that he’s already played against American minor league teams in the USA then I think the odds are at least even that he’ll skip the DSL. You’re also forgetting that he played a full year in the DPL (which amounts to 2 seasons) which no other Giant Caribbean prospect ever has (Mejia had pitched for less than 6 months when he was signed). From what I’ve been able to glean, the DPL is not that far behind the DSL in terms of competition. Finally, when Carmona was investigated by the USA state dept. it was a whole different system and scrutiny level than when Valdez was investigated. Carmona signed in 2000 and got his visa in the spring of 2002. It was a lot easier to fool the system back then. MLB and DHS have tightened things up dramatically in the past several years, not to mention that the people running the DPL are staking their reputations on having clean players. The DPL people were the ones that actually caught the fact that Simon Mercedes had been playing under an identity that wasn’t his own.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
They actually have to get new visas every year, although I’d imagine it’s true that getting one the first time shoud make future years go smoother
Yeah, but like it is with a security clearance, once you’ve qualified the first time the process for getting another visa is extremely streamlined. Basically, the DHS only has to confirm what the applicant has been up to in the time since he last left the USA and not verify what he’s been dong his entire life once again.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Simon Mercedes
I want to get clarification of the case of Simon Mercedes last year signed a contract with the Giants he do not signed with the false identity, the seemingly had a double identity which was not used to sign a contract, apparently someone had the intention to do so and this was not possible after signing with the Giants for a total of 400.000 dollars has the courage MLB , Jeffry Tapia not sign with this name but with the Mercedes Simon is his real name and age, such holds until March 12 and is again a free agent, also was learned that the giants and have no interest in him for budget issues .
here you have a video of Simon Mercedes
by yuyun.santos on Jan 27, 2012 9:44 PM PST up reply actions
Are you stopping at 40 or 50?
Still the father of two-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum.
"Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be." - John Wooden
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