Projecting the Giants using Fangraphs' Fan Projection Tool

by Nnamdi Asomugha on Jan 16, 2012 1:46 PM PST

So I've been messing around with Fangraphs' fan projection tool for awhile now. I think its a really neat system that has some value. I just finished with the Giants position players. The hardest part is projecting player time ,especially this far away from opening day, as I have no idea who will get injured and who will win position battles this spring. Well without further ado here are my projections, they seem pretty fair and reasonable.

Name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA	UZR	WAR

Buster Posey

580

522

151

.289

.365

.458

.823

.355

5.8

Eli Whiteside

292

272

.232

.292

.309

.601

.268

0.5

Chris Stewart

176

158

.209

.298

.272

.570

.258

0.3

Aubrey Huff

655

589

159

.270

.345

.453

.799

.346

2.7

Freddy Sanchez

472

439

127

.289

.342

.380

.722

.318

2.1

Pablo Sandoval

686

638

198

101

.310

.355

.522

.877

.371

6.2

Brandon Crawford

410

369

.230

.307

.333

.641

.285

1.5

Manny Burriss

410

381

103

.270

.335

.325

.660

.306

1.3

Mike Fontenot

410

381

103

.270

.323

.365

.688

.303

1.2

Conor Gillaspie

176

158

.272

.347

.361

.707

.321

-1

0.7

Brett Pill

430

413

103

.249

.274

.397

.671

.287

-0.2

Nate Schierholtz

540

502

136

.271

.328

.384

.712

.311

2.0

Brandon Belt

430

387

104

103

.269

.348

.455

.803

.351

2.5

Angel Pagan

718

668

194

100

108

.290

.338

.407

.746

.333

4.7

Melky Cabrera

640

595

161

.271

.321

.429

.750

.325

-8

1.1

Pat Burrell

270

235

.251

.347

.404

.751

.331

-4

0.5

Justin Christian

176

164

.250

.301

.335

.637

.288

-1

-0.1

EDIT: Sorry about the formatting. Can't seem to get it the way I want.

Poll

Can this group of position players bring the Giants to the playoffs in 2012?

YES. The playoffs are a guarantee with this squad.

5 votes

POSSIBLY. As long as everyone stays relatively healthy.

40 votes

NO. The Giants will need to add pieces to make the playoffs.

10 votes

55 votes | Poll has closed

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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Comments

I’ll take the under on Posey, Huff, Sanchez, Crawford, Pagan, Belt, Burriss…

The most delightful ecumenical contradiction in nomenclature.
Dursh nerf darsh narf. Poop.

by GiantPain on Jan 16, 2012 3:31 PM PST reply actions

Sooner or later you are going to have to start defending your bleak outlook on everything instead of just jackhammering it into the MCC consciousness. His projections (with maybe the exception of Burriss, and Sanchez’ OBP) are only a touch more optimistic across the board than ZiPS, which has a history of being pretty accurate.

A man who carries a cat by the tail learns something he can learn in no other way. - SLC

by mhad on Jan 16, 2012 3:55 PM PST up reply actions

Well the thing is

Fangraphs’ projection tool doesn’t let you choose a single value. Instead you select a range of values and then the numbers are generated.

So Burriss for example has a BB% of 6.6% for his major league career, I chose 6-8% for his BB% projection. Fangraphs then generates s a value somewhere between 6-8%. So while I am doing the projections here I’m not 100% in control.

Adoptive father of 18th round draft pick and future ace, BRANDON ALLEN

by Nnamdi Asomugha on Jan 17, 2012 6:30 AM PST up reply actions