Community Prospect List #27
by free f.p. #14 on Jan 12, 2012 5:26 PM PST
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PrintDominguez cleans up. Here's the list for #27. This poll will be open until 6pm PST tomorrow, December 13th.
Please do not rec these posts, as we don't want them cluttering up the recommended FanPosts section.
The list so far:
1. Gary Brown
2. Joe Panik
3. Tommy Joseph
4a. Eric Surkamp
4b. Heath Hembree
7. Andrew Susac
9. Kyle Crick
10. Ehire Adrianza
11. Josh Osich
12. Clayton Blackburn
13. Adalberto Mejia
14. Adam Duvall
15. Conor Gillaspie
16. Ricky Oropesa
17. Jarrett Parker
18a. Chuckie Jones
18b. Mike Kickham
20. Kendry Flores
21. Jacob Dunnington
22. Angel Villalona
23. Charlie Culberson
24. Jesus Galindo
25. Seth Rosin
26. Chris Dominguez
The player's first name links to his Baseball Cube profile page, and his last name links to his Fangraphs profile page.
Enmanuel DeJesus
If you want to see any names added to the poll, mention them in the comments. Vote away!
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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Still Cavan
Then Payne, Mendoza, Gregorio, DeJesus, Correa, Bochy, Rodriguez
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Why Cavan? He’s an average hitter in A-ball at age 24, and he has zero scouting buzz. What’s the appeal?
by Evan on Jan 12, 2012 6:01 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
+1
I don’t get it either. He’ll be 25 next year. and didn’t even excel in the CAL: 102 wRC+. He’ll get eaten alive in the EL.
He’s not really prospect material anymore, IMO.
Out of the guys that are left, only Mendoza, DeJesus, and Gregorio give me much to dream on.
Payne feels too old and RafRod just kinda fails.
Calling Cavan not prospect material is probably too strong, but he’s got a real uphill climb. Basically, he’s a poor man’s Charlie Culberson – only he’s 2 years older and 1 level behind.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Not that I disagree, but isn’t Cavan a plus defender?
by BestHyperboleEver on Jan 13, 2012 10:09 AM PST up reply actions
Above-average, but not plus. I think he’s a better defender than Culberson, but not by a large margin.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
By player
Payne is really the only other guy I considered voting for, and I think you can make a strong case for him. But I prefer Cavan’s 2B to Payne’s CF in no small part to the organization’s CF depth and lack of 2Bs. He is also a little more well-rounded than Payne, playing good defense, getting on base, hitting for average, and hitting for power. Payne’s had serious power issues, and at 21 isn’t exactly young for the NWL himself – a year in the Sally puts him at 23 in the CAL, only one year behind Cavan. That’s not enough to override the superior (in this situation) position and generally better bat Cavan has.
Everyone else is a pitcher. No relief pitcher in levels below Cavan gets a spot before him – I can’t put an RP in a level below SJ above a 2B in SJ. That eliminates Bochy and Correa. DeJesus is young but not crazy young, and it’s the DSL, where is was pretty good but not crazy good, like any of that means anything anyway. Point is, too much risk and uncertainty there. Mendoza’s a ssA pitcher with pretty great numbers, but not a lot of history, and he’s a ssA pitcher. Gregorio falls victim to the same problem.
Rodriguez has nothing except tools. I know he’s still crazy young and has plenty of time, but he’s done absolutely nothing.
Cavan’s put up at least solid numbers everywhere he’s gone, we have two years of data on him, and he’ll probably stick at 2B. His upside isn’t as high as guys like Payne, Gregorio, or Mendoza (or possibly DeJesus) but there’s so much risk and so much we don’t know there that I can’t vote for them above a guy who’s already had some measure of success.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
I can’t put an RP in a level below SJ above a 2B in SJ. That eliminates Bochy and Correa.
You know that Correa was at SJ at the beginning of the season and then was promoted to AA in June, right?
@legaleagle88
I'm not crazy. My mother had me tested.
I was there the day he got promoted! He was so excited. :)
And, I missed the point about the 40 man.
@legaleagle88
I'm not crazy. My mother had me tested.
Actually, looks like they did it in November along with Charlie Culberson, Tyler Graham, Roger Kieschnick, Dan Otero and Angel Villalona. There’s no doubt in my mind that Correa would have been drafted by more than 1 team if he had been available. He has the stuff to be a good releiver in the majors at some future point, and the maturity to last a year in the back of a big league bullpen.
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/news/print.jsp?ymd=20111121&content_id=26019520&vkey=news_t476&fext=.jsp&sid=t476
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I completely agree. I liked what I saw in San Jose. I was a little surprised they promoted him while leaving a hot prospect like Gary Brown at A+ (though now I see that a lot of it has to do with depth at each level and a million other considerations), but he did well.
@legaleagle88
I'm not crazy. My mother had me tested.
meh
He’s still a reliever. A+/AA isn’t good enough to beat a position player, even one who looks like a utility guy at best.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Fair enough
But, you got this part wrong. Correa pitched 2+ months in AA last year and then the Giants thought enough of him to put him on the 40 man in December.
I can’t put an RP in a level below SJ above a 2B in SJ. That eliminates Bochy and Correa.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I don’t know. A 102 wRC+ in the Cal league for a 24 year old sure seems like org filler. Though I will grant you that his 147 wRC+ in the SK two years ago is identical to Payne’s this year. Even their walk rates in the NWL were about identical. Maybe you’re right that there’s not much separation to found there.
I’m still looking at Mendoza as the best bet of this lot.
There aren't too many guys here
Who look like more than org filler at this point. Some could be more than that, but those are the guys who haven’t done enough to really make a call yet.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Of course by this logic, we should probably be voting for Brett Pill here. And really we probably should be as I’m guessing he’ll produce more major league value than a fairly substantial amount of the guys we’ve already put on the board.
I wonder where Pill would be if he hadn’t had major league time. Probably still not on the list. Yikes.
@legaleagle88
I'm not crazy. My mother had me tested.
Yeah
Not sure he’s a prospect anymore. I like to keep this lists to guys who haven’t appeared in the bigs yet (excepting things like spot starts).
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
I’d say the difference is that Cavan has spent the last two years demonstrating that he is not, in fact, one of those rare players who blossoms as a pro despite having been completely unheralded coming out of college. Payne hasn’t done that yet. He probably will, of course, but until then he’s a nice longshot.
Correa I guess
But I could be swayed to vote Gregorio
Read Me At: Twitter/Blog/MLBBonusBaby /Giants Nirvana
by Gobroks on Jan 12, 2012 6:02 PM PST via mobile reply actions
This deep
it really gets murky.
Voted Payne. I like him too much. Melonhead Jr and Mendoza look good too.
There will be Payne!
I coud also see Correa, Mendoza, or Gregorio here, but Bochy is just too old (only Dominguez and Kieschnick are older – and those guys have already played in AA) and Cavan just showed too much of a drop in power in the power-happy CAL for me to contemplate putting them anywhere in the top 30.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Correa?
A RHP relief pitcher who posts a 7 K/9? Really?
We need more names
Add your suggestions and rec the names you want added
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Demondre Arnold
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
by Fla-Giant on Jan 12, 2012 7:57 PM PST up reply actions 4 recs
Kelby Tomlinson
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
by Fla-Giant on Jan 12, 2012 7:57 PM PST up reply actions 6 recs
Chris Heston
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
by Fla-Giant on Jan 12, 2012 7:58 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Hey Fla, what are your thoughts about Heston? He had a decent, but not spectacular, year last year. He left me with a good impression, though. He pitched the last game I went to — a playoff game against Stockton — and pitched really well. 3 hits, no runs, 5 strike outs. He looked pretty dominant, and Stockton was not a bad team offensively.
@legaleagle88
I'm not crazy. My mother had me tested.
I think he’s a real sleeper – definitely under the radar.
I love:
outstanding groundball rates (1.90 and 2.20 in 2010 & ‘11),
he’s gotten noticeably better and stronger in the 2nd half of both the 2010 & ‘11 seasons,
he has very good K/9 rates for a groundball pitcher (7.5 and 7.8 in 2010 & ’11),
I like:
from what little scouting info I’ve accumulated, he sits in the 90-91 mph range – so he’s not just a future soft-tosser,
he has very good command and control (BB/9=2.0 and 2.4 in 2010 & ‘11),
his durability (pitched 148.2 and 151 innings in 2010 & ’11).
I don’t like:
He was 23 years old pitching in A+ and will be 24 pitching in AA this season.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Thanks!
I had heard his FB was more high ’80’s (I always forget to check the radar gun in SJ, and it rarely seems to work anyway), so that’s good news. I also agree that he really stepped it up in the second half of the season, and I do like his BB/9. Also, he spent only 8 days on the DL in 2011, which is good. (I think it was for something minor like a blister or broken nail, but I could be mis-remembering.)
I think Wheeler was the only starter in SJ who wasn’t old for the level. (Westcott 25, Reichard 26, Marte 23, Heston 23.)
@legaleagle88
I'm not crazy. My mother had me tested.
You’ve actually seen him pitch, so I’d bow to your eyes. My velocity info comes from listening to the SJ radio broadcasts, so 90-91 could have been his top-range while 89-90 could be where his velo sits.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I had read the info somewhere, so it’s not based on what I’ve seen. I am a terrible scout of pitchers! Sometimes, if I’m sitting close enough, I’ll sneak a peek at the charting pitchers’ or scouts’ guns. But, I have zero reliable data on Heston.
@legaleagle88
I'm not crazy. My mother had me tested.
There was a strange moment in Baggs’ Q&A where his answer didn’t match the question that immediately proceeded it, but his answer was that he had Heston above Dunnington on the org depth chart of relievers because he believed in Heston’s power sinker.
Of course Heston hasn’t been a reliever which made that answer even more confusing. But I guess I’m saying I won’t be terribly surprised if we see Heston in Richmond or Fresno’s bullpen this year.
Yes, that Baggs chat moment was bizarre in a lot of ways. I might shoot him an email and ask about it.
@legaleagle88
I'm not crazy. My mother had me tested.
I sent Baggs an email. The odds of him replying are probably slim to none, but maybe he’s less busy since it’s the off season.
@legaleagle88
I'm not crazy. My mother had me tested.
Baggs replied!
He meant Harrold, not Heston in the chat. (He says Heston is not in the top 30.) So, he has Harrold over Dunnington. What say you, Fla Giant? ;-)
@legaleagle88
I'm not crazy. My mother had me tested.
Payne
Then Cavan or Gregorio, or Mendoza
I'm a Giants Fan, but I'll always be rooting for Matt Downs
Adopted Son:Dan Burkhart , Future Backup To Buster Posey.
BTW..
I have added the 2012 Community Prospects Posts and the 2011 Community Prospects Revisited to the McWiki page
http://mccoveychronicles.wikispaces.com/McC+Community+Prospect+Lists
When the selections are complete, let me know and I ( or you ) can add the entire list as a Google Docs spreadsheet reference point for next year. The McWiki page has it’s own G-Mail and Google Doc’s account as:
Login:
mcwikichronicles@gmail.com
Password:
2010Giants
I'm a Giants Fan, but I'll always be rooting for Matt Downs
Adopted Son:Dan Burkhart , Future Backup To Buster Posey.
Gregorio
Mostly just because the professional prospect guys seem to like him.
Payne has a LOT more to show me he’s even a top 50 prospect. If I could crtitique this community prospect board, its that recent draft picks who do well for 160 ABs get overrated. Dude was a 35th round pick and played pretty decently for a short period in a league he was too old for.
If I could critique this board it would be...
too many people seem to ignore age and vote for old guys who have no business as a prospect(Dominguez).
It’s happening again here with Bochy and Cavan.
There’s some truth in this, although I must add that that is to be expected when your system is as thin and bottom-heavy as the Giants currently is. At this late stage in the rankings, I think you could make a legit case for at least 6 prospects every round. There’s nothing inherently wrong with rewarding a new pro for short-season success as long as you also take into account age, toolsets and scouting reports.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
It is thin
But I think as a group we should be pointing more towards the good scouting reports we have. Gregorio has shown up on a couple different top prospect lists. Otherwise, how about Marlowe, Bandilla and Black, the guys we took 30 rounds ahead of Payne.
Even a Kelby Tomlinson who had a nice short season. That’s a 12th round shortstop with a reputation for defense and an interesting background prior to a mediocre junior year.
I see Dominguez popped, and people voting for Payne and I don’t see good reasons for it. Cavan is also not that interesting.
Payne has received some scouting buzz, though; really probably not all that different from Gregario’s. And certainly I don’t see where he wouldn’t be a better choice than Tomlinson who was indeed drafted higher, but who was placed lower. And I’d consider his being 21 in the AZL a more significant age/level discrepancy than Payne’s 22 in the NWL as the AZL is typically a much younger league on the whole. Marlowe’s an interesting guy (I think Bandilla has a significant shoulder injury) but again with him and Black you’re looking at more bullpen arms.
I mean, I think Gregorio is a perfectly valid choice (I again went with Mendoza), but I don’t see why Payne wouldn’t be a valid one as well. I’d have both of them on the board by now left to my own list.
Anyway, I’m not sure you can justify a Gregorio choice based on professional prospect guys liking him and then discount Dominguez, who professional prospect guys also pay more attention then a lot of the rest of us. I’d assume both of them will be int he 11-20 range on BA’s list.
Agree with this, but with one caveat. I think you’re punishing Tomlinson a bit for being assigned to the AZL when it was almost certain that he would have been the SS in S-K if not for the presence of Panik. It’s instructive that they sent Tomlinson to Augusta for the playoffs at the end of the season. As Fred Stanley noted in his Ritzo interview, sometimes they have to keep a prospect in a league longer than they normally would in order to get him regular playing time when a promotion would mean sharing time with another prospect (the example that Stanley was referring to was Gary Brown).
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I wouldn’t say I’m punishing him. I didn’t make the assignment after all. but I don’t believe in putting in weight on 20 something’s numbers in the AZL, and to some degree his time there is wasted development. Next year he’ll most likely be a 22 year old in Augusta and Payne will probably be a 23 year old in Augusta. Then we can judge them more evenly against each other.
Hammystyle, I think you need to give players that were just drafted and played in the minors that same year some slack and more credit when you throw out stats about age vs league. I ask you where should they have sent a 35th round pick like Payne so that he could have been age appropriate, AA? I think this board is awfully negative about prospects and focus on what they don’t do well and instead should just praise the player for playing well and adjusting to playing everyday for the first time in their career. I will always be a fan of the Giants and their prospects, but just hope that someone would please give these players a moment to get their feet under them before you destroy their prospect status for being too old because this is something they can not control over.
by krukkuipandclint on Jan 13, 2012 1:48 PM PST up reply actions
I think this board is awfully negative about prospects
I guess it depends on what exactly you mean by this. I don’t anyone’s being “mean” to these players. But realistically, the vast majority of minor leaguers will never be major leaguers, and a very significant percentage of players who make the major leagues won’t stay long and won’t be productive major leaguers.
It’s instructive to stroll through BRef’s draft database and check the bottom of the page, where starting around the 3rd round (randomly selected 1995) you get lines like this:
28 matching player(s). 7 played in the majors (25%). Total of 67.4 WAR, or 9.6 per major leaguer.
then around round 10 you get lines like this:
28 matching player(s). 6 played in the majors (21%). Total of 7.8 WAR, or 1.3 per major leaguer
descending quickly to this:
28 matching player(s). 3 played in the majors (10%). Total of 0.7 WAR, or 0.2 per major leaguer.
and by the time you get to round 20 or so, this begins to pop up with frequency:
28 matching player(s). 0 played in the majors (0%). Total of 0.0 WAR, or — per major leaguer.
There’s little use in sugar coating the odds these kids face.
I understand that they won’t all make it, but if a guy is doing well where they assigned him to play than give him some credit. Thanks for the research, but as long as the giants keep drafting guys after round 20, I will keep the dream alive.
by krukkuipandclint on Jan 13, 2012 6:37 PM PST up reply actions
I agree with you. It’s very easy to rip prospects apart instead of focusing on what they can do well. Obviously the deck is stacked against every single one. I don’t think most the criticisms on the board are meant to be malicious, but they can sure come off that way at times. For me, the age relative to league is played up too much, what are college guys supposed to do about it except try and play their hearts out. If we have a talented guy such as Bumgarner, he is going to rise quickly. Posey is going to skip the Eastern. Most prospects aren’t that good. I think the Giants are doing a good job of letting guys breath, and a better job of drafting and prospecting in general. And this deep in the pool, who knows. So go kick some ass Shawn Payne, get another 160 ABs and kill it.
It’s not that “they won’t all make it.” it’s that almost none if them will. Over the last 20 years 9 out of every 10 players the Giants have never spent a day in the majors and a lot of the ones who made it that far had careers like Dax Jones and Keith Williams, in other words they werent major leaguers at all. A career like Travis ishikawa’s has been a tremendous success story in that context. And the reason for that is playing in the majors is really incredibly impossibly difficult. Exponentially more difficult than playing at the next highest level and most guys can’t do it.
Ranking prospects is an exercise in trying to figure out who’s going to be the needle, and at least for me it has nothing to do with dreaming or not dreaming. That’s a separate activity.
A Met’s blogger looked at productive draft picks starting at 4.5 WAR from 1999 to 2005 and came up with 4 players drafted: David Wright, Scott Kazmir, Angel Pagan and Mike Pelfrey. Making the majors is incredibly hard, being productive even more so. The much maligned Sabean trade em off of the same time frame years produced Lowry, Cain and Wilson, Sanchez and Romo if you cheat a bit, and Freddy Lew at 4.0 WAR. If Schierholz busts out he can join them.
Harsh business for sure. All of these guys are high school legends, best players people have seen with their own eyes.
Too bad they couldn't get Doug Fister signed!
Kevin Correia too if you go by Fangraphs. And Jerome Williams is back in the majors so he could have a shot at it as well (long shot) as Aardsma.
We’ve come a long way from Correia and Brad Henny-Henn. Sabean traded Williams and Aardsma for LaTroy Hawkins (Benitez really was the gift that kept on giving), then flipped him for Steve Kline a year later, who stays on and coaches up them Augusta pitchers. Winner!
That Mets blog (Mack’s Mets) didn’t go into international players. Obviously some guy named Reyes balances it out for the Mets. The Giants counter with… Peter Happy’s Glove.
I go with B-R over fangraphs. I think Fangraphs is better overall, but I like the easy format of B-R. And they seem to be a bit more conservative. With exceptions.
Reyes and Wright aside, the Mets are suffering horribly for their absolute allegiance to Bud Seligs desires to omit amateur spending. In pure $$$ they are one of mlb’s very lowest spenders for amateur talent over the lat decade. Prior to last year they had a full dec of signability pik, low draft bonuses and very little international spending nd thy have n organization in shambles to show for it. Sandy’s got. Big job in font of him, but there aren’t too many better baseball men around to try o tackle it.
We are ranking prospects
By nature that means we have to compare the players and it would take too long to only list the positives of everyone else I prefer. What is negative about saying Payne was a 35th round pick who had 160 decent AB’s in a league he was old for? That’s fact. My point is that those 160 AB’s don’t tell us a whole lot and that this community board is weighting them way too heavily.
There are other prospects you can root for too….the 25-30 guys the Giants an everyone else in the league considered better in June.
In addition to Crick, the G’s drafted Bandilla, Marlowe, Osich and Black 4-7. All can top out at 97, sit in the low to mid 90s. 2 of the 5 are already ranked. Where are the rest? Haven’t suited up, injury concerns, etc. Payne showed up and impressed with his stats and impressed the scouts. Panik was #4 in the NWL, Galindo #9 per Baseball America, Payne and Flores barely missed out, ie in the 20s of the WHOLE league. Chuckie Jones did not impress in the same league. But we love him because he is 3 years younger and athletic. And young.
Jones is ranked #18 on the board because of presumed upside, and Fla-Giant’s trumpeting that. I’ll respect that, he looks like a major talent if he can get coached up, etc. At the moment though, Payne outperformed him pretty handily. On the same team at the same time. 3 years older yes, but Galindo and Payne both put the stats down, and impressed the scouts. Payne actually dropped from being drafted by the Doyers in the 29th in 2009, rose from the Royals 44th in 2010. Maybe his twitter feed scared teams away. Did they have twitter in 2010? 160 ABs is a small sample, but before you start throwing out draft order, consider that Dunnington is undrafted. Yes, even in this day and age, teams miss out on players. Its a start to his career, and he came correct.
That logic sounds fair hammystyle, but at least they were a good 160 ABs
by krukkuipandclint on Jan 13, 2012 8:57 PM PST up reply actions
Just a litle extra prospect opinion
Fred Stanley, San Francisco’s Director of Player Development Chats About the Top Prospects
I'm a Giants Fan, but I'll always be rooting for Matt Downs
Adopted Son:Dan Burkhart , Future Backup To Buster Posey.
Good stuff, too bad there’s no audio of the full interview.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Smart Ass :-) That’s what I get for being down with the flu for a couple of days. I saw the link for the audio just after I posted that.
I'm a Giants Fan, but I'll always be rooting for Matt Downs
Adopted Son:Dan Burkhart , Future Backup To Buster Posey.
You misunderstood me
I wasn’t criticizing you. I was making a comment that there is no audio of the interview available anywhere. For some reason I had it stuck in my head that there was audio of this and I spent about 30 minutes this morning searching for it on the net.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Dude...sorry, I thought you posted it in the 25 Runoff or 26 thread. Apologies for the snark.
I looked back through those threads and it just some links about Demondre Arnold and sub threads including Fred Stanley’s thoughts.
I wouldn’t be surprised if you posted it, even if there is no audio of the interview. You tend to come up with some amazing and detailed info on the G’s prospects.
I'm a Giants Fan, but I'll always be rooting for Matt Downs
Adopted Son:Dan Burkhart , Future Backup To Buster Posey.
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