SF Giants' Contract Crisis

I would even argue that Lincecum’s “perceived” market value would be more of an impetus to move him instead of Cain, not to mention his marketability. One thing is for sure, the Giants cannot sit on their hands. A decision must be made.

They’re going to be paying him >$20M pretty much no matter what through arbitration. So you’ve got $40M on those two guys. Bumgarner is projected to hit arb in 2014. Vogelsong is signed for $5M in 2013; he’ll almost certainly be taking a rotation spot. Not sure what’s going to happen with Surkamp, but he could replace Cain if Cain is allowed to walk or traded.

The rotation will then cost about $45M for the front four (Lincecum, Bumgarner, Vogelsong, Zito). Let’s leave the fifth spot open to see if we can afford Cain or need to use Surkamp.

The bullpen, then. Wilson will likely make around $10M in his final year through arb, Romo could be up to $5M in his second trip through, Lopez is signed for $4M, and we’ll assume that Hembree and Runzler are ready for the minimum, Casilla and Mota are retained (calling it $5M for both, with Casilla taking the majority in his final arb trip), and Affeldt walks. That’s seven pitchers for about $20M – five righties and two lefties, one long man, a pretty traditional bullpen construction. Not sure who will close, but that doesn’t matter so much. So $65M for nearly all of the pitching staff.

Onto the offense. Sandoval will be in his second arb year – working off a $5M or so base in 2012, with a good year he could get maybe $9M. Posey is projected to hit arb for the first time in 2013 as well – coming off a major injury in 2011, unless he goes absolutely nuts I don’t see more than $4M – his ROY won’t be enough to mitigate the injury in 2011, but that’s still a pretty big first-time award. Huff is gone, Belt in first, with a $2M buyout for Huff. I really don’t see Sanchez coming back, and with Panik probably not ready, Fontenot may be installed as the everyday 2B, and will cost around $1.5M. Can’t count Charlie Culberson out though – with a strong year in Fresno he may be given the job. Crawford will almost certainly be the everyday SS for the minimum. Infield costs $17.5M. Pagan and Cabrera both project as free agents after 2012 – it’s possible one gets an extension, but not that probable. More likely, Brown or Peguero is handed the CF position and Schierholtz gets a shot at RF (if he isn’t getting one now). LF is a bit trickier – there’s no clear candidate unless Brown AND Peguero are starters. What I find more likely is Pill getting the 1B job and Belt moving to LF. But that’s not obvious either. Let’s leave LF open for now and see where that leads, installing a farm product in CF and Nate in right for $2M; if he’s given a starting job this year and does well, he could earn more, but a bench role would earn him less. That means the 7/8 of the starting offense requires about $20M in commitments. So far we’ve committed $85M.

Still have to fill out the bench. Burriss will likely get a spot, along with maybe Gillaspie or Dominguez. Fontenot could take a role if he is pushed out of a starting job, and the same holds true for Nate. Finding another utility OF shouldn’t be too difficult or expensive – Tyler Graham and Justin Christian look like obvious candidates but will have to at least be interesting in 2012. Still, the bench in total shouldn’t cost more than $5M for five players. Let’s be extra generous and call it $8M.

$93M in commitments now, with SP, LF, and possibly 2B open. Call it $20M for Cain, and you’re up to $113M of a presumably static $130M budget. $17M to find a starting LF and maybe 2B should not be difficult – no one is saying those positions have to be filled by world-beaters, and one may be filled internally leaving lots of cash open for the other. Or you can just call that a cushion on underestimating arb awards or extension money. Of course, if Wilson or Zito are traded (not ridiculous on the former, and we’d have to kick in some cash for the latter but with a mediocre season someone would pay a bit) we’d free up more space, and their production could likely be replaced.

Unless I’m vastly underestimating some awards, and I don’t think I am, we should be able to pay Cain $20M. Just looking at three players with $20M salaries taking up half the budget looks bad, but that’s before you realize how cheap the rest of the team is. Posey, Sandoval, Belt, and Bumgarner will all be relatively inexpensive for the next several years at least, and they’re providing a lot of value right now. That money could get eaten up quick if Sabean continues the “let’s pay left-handed relievers $5M a season” strategy, but there is clearly a way to keep Cain and not go over-budget – in fact, it seems he fits into the budget quite nicely.

You heartless green-blooded bastard.

Silva was in fact much worse than Zito and he still ended up getting moved. I’m not saying we’ll get something of value, or even save much money, but it’s not ludicrous to think a team might take a $2M chance on him being a productive #5 pitcher. Nor do I think Zito wants to buy himself any more animosity by vetoing a trade.

We don’t know if Belt can hold down a full-time position, but we ought to give him the opportunity. How will we know if we don’t let him try? We didn’t know if Posey could hold down a full-time position, or Sandoval, or Lincecum, etc. until they did because we gave them a shot. I don’t see how the Giants can realistically keep him on the bench or in AAA with his general reputation as a top prospect, his great (albeit short) time in the minors, no incumbent 1B/LF, a serious need for offense, and no money. Though I suppose I shouldn’t underestimate their willingness to crap on young players.

Pill was more of a longshot – I don’t think he’s good enough to start, but it’s not completely out of the question that he could hold down the 1B job for a year or two and let us save some money by not signing a FA LF and putting Belt there. In any case, I did not assume he was part of the equation and left LF open because there is no good candidate now.

If the Giants don’t extend Cain it’s very possible they get a FA bat – in fact, I’m pretty sure it will happen. There’s just too much money and talent to not grab a win-now player and make another run without Cain in 2013 – the pieces will still be there and they’ll have a bunch of money to spread around. But if they see guys like Brown and Panik as near-future starters, with a couple other interesting pieces that have the potential, why would they lose a major piece in Cain and spend that money on either another SP they’re less familiar with, or a position player that could block a prospect? The only reason I see to do that is if they don’t believe in Cain long-term (in which case they just shouldn’t extend him period) or they don’t think the farm will produce offensive talent and want to re-allocate money toward a bat. But it seems possible to do that while retaining Cain, and even if it’s not, that’s likely just trading pitching wins for hitting wins, with no real gain. They’re going to have money to spend soon, and they’re going to spend it; I’d rather spend it on one of our own players instead of someone else’s, and not just for sentimental reasons: Cain is a great player, and we know him better than anyone else.

He will have one year left (plus the buyout). I was looking at the 2013 budget, so that boosted the possibility of a trade. Zito may have been insistent on a no-trade clause six years ago, but now? Now I think he wants to go somewhere he won’t be a center of attention, and with his contract that’s impossible in SF. Six years ago he probably thought he wouldn’t be considered one of the worst contracts in baseball from the moment he started his deal. Things have changed.

The Giants can either give kids time to succeed (regardless of whether they do so immediately or ever) or they can stop contending very soon. No way they can support a payroll of the size they’d need to play only guys who have had significant MLB success. I think they know that, despite some of the actions they’ve taken.

Re-allocating money toward the offense wouldn’t result in more wins, just higher-scoring games all around. Cain’s career low in fWAR is 3.3, which translates to about $15M a year. TBH if he’s extended I don’t think he’ll get $20M a year, but it’ll be close, and I think that’s the best way to spend that money. He’s never not been good and more than once been fantastic. The 2013 FA list isn’t bad, but Brandon Phillips and Stephen Drew are the only guys I’d say could be better than Cain, and Phillips will be 32 and neither of them is guaranteed to actually hit free agency.

2010 we chased the Padre all year. 2011, we were in 1st place, then lost it to the Diamondbacks, then faded… Total opposite…