Community Prospect List #26
by free f.p. #14 on Jan 11, 2012 6:47 PM PST
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PrintRosin was killing Dominguez in the runoff, so I'm going to cut it off and we'll move on. This poll will be open until 7pm PST tomorrow, December 12th.
Please do not rec these posts, as we don't want them cluttering up the recommended FanPosts section.
The list so far:
1. Gary Brown
2. Joe Panik
3. Tommy Joseph
4a. Eric Surkamp
4b. Heath Hembree
7. Andrew Susac
9. Kyle Crick
10. Ehire Adrianza
11. Josh Osich
12. Clayton Blackburn
13. Adalberto Mejia
14. Adam Duvall
15. Conor Gillaspie
16. Ricky Oropesa
17. Jarrett Parker
18a. Chuckie Jones
18b. Mike Kickham
20. Kendry Flores
21. Jacob Dunnington
22. Angel Villalona
23. Charlie Culberson
24. Jesus Galindo
25. Seth Rosin
The player's first name links to his Baseball Cube profile page, and his last name links to his Fangraphs profile page.
Enmanuel DeJesus
If you want to see any names added to the poll, mention them in the comments. Vote away!
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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Paaaaaaayyyyyynnnnee!!
"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean
by Smotheredinhugs on Jan 11, 2012 7:16 PM PST reply actions
I voted Payne here as well, but
I’d also really like Bochy here. I actually think they are both a tad low on this list.
I’m predicting Bochy has a Heath Hembree like year this upcoming season, and shoots all the way to AAA. I think he’ll at least be a top 15 prospect next year.
Mr. Flibble is very cross.
I don't see it
It will be tough for Bochy to jump over Hembree, Harrold, Correa and Otero all the way to Fresno. Not to mention that there’s no reason to rush Bochy as there’s no room in the major league pen for him until the 2013 season at the earliest – and he’ll start the season only 1.8 years removed from TJ surgery. The Giants will want to keep him in SJ or Richmond to be the main closer, but I could see him making the jump to Richmond during the season if Harrold struggles or they want to use Bochy as Harrold’s setup guy.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Allow me to use the fruits of my day’s labor to show how unusual it would be for Bochy to turn himself into a successful major league pitcher at this point. Brett turned 24 last August while pitching in the Sally.
As best I can ascertain, there’s not an active pitcher in the majors with a career total of 5 fWAR who pitched in A ball at 24. The closest to that (and it’s very close) was Matt Thorton who turned 24 just after a season which he had spent entirely in A ball (and his second attempt at the level no less, which is a pretty extraordinary development case itself).
The only other qualifying pitchers who were in A ball at 23 are Wandy Rodriguez, JJ Putz, Mike Adams, and our own Brian Wilson (who like Bochy and many others had his development stymied by TJ), but Wilson ended that age 23 season in AAA; Adams ended his in AA. Putz would begin the following season at AA.
There are certainly weird development curves out there (Thorton’s was also highly interrupted by injury), but Bochy certainly doesn’t have a lot of examples to hang his hat on.
Although Sergio Romo is another good example I suppose. He currently has a 4.9 career fWAR so he fell below the level I looked at, but he, like Wilson has a spring training birthday and unlike Wilson he spent his entire age 23 year in the Sally, and then moved up only one level and spent his entire age 24 season in A+. That breakthrough year gave him a boost and he was one of the cast of thousands who made their major league debut in the awful 2008 season, at the age of 25.
If the failure to move Bochy this year was more post-injury caution then it was insight into the org depth chart, then it’s not out of the question that he could be advanced rapidly this year. His peripherals were great and being the son of the manager should get you some perks, I’d think.
Payne stats and vids
Payne started out struggling in his pro debut (he also suffered a nagging foot injury that slowed him down for several weeks in the beginnng), but he was one of the Volcanoes hottest hitters during the last 7 weeks of the season. He plays ++D in CF – according to RichH he gets to balls nobody else even touches – even Jesus Galindo. For a raw pro rookie you have to love his plate discipline and patient eye (BB=14.9%, K=16.4%). He’s strong for his size and I think he has the ability to substantially increase his power at the plate as he matures and gains more pro experience. The main knock against him is his relatively advanced age – he’ll be 22.8 when the 2012 season starts in April.
Here are his key NWL stats from 2011:
.306/.431/.394/.825 with wOBA=.380, wOBA+=121, OPS+=136, H=49, 2B=8, 3B=3, HR=0, BB=29, K=32, SB=21 of 27 (78%)
Here’s a montage of highlights from his 2011 college season (warning, long lead-in):
http://www.statesboroherald.com/multimedia/2659/
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Cavan
Like Payne, wanted to pick him, but Cavan’s a pretty good player if he can stick at 2B (which I have heard he can). Sure, he’s old, but…something.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Payne, Cavan, or Dominguez….I guess I’ll wait a little bit to vote
I'm a Giants Fan, but I'll always be rooting for Matt Downs
Adopted Son:Dan Burkhart , Future Backup To Buster Posey.
Wow...
After being in the runoff, Dominguez doesn’t get a single solitary vote before I make it?
Weirdos! (just kidding)
"The knowledge of the game is inversely proportional to the price of the seat." ---Bill Veeck. •Read My Blarrrgh...er, um....Comic. That doesn't really come across so well when said sarcastically. The Lunatic Fringe•
Went Dominguez again
My list looks a lot different than this CPL
Read Me At: Twitter/Blog/MLBBonusBaby /Giants Nirvana
by Gobroks on Jan 11, 2012 8:23 PM PST via mobile reply actions
Same here, on both counts. I like Bochy and Payne, but I’ve got to vote Dominguez, despite his obvious flaws.
Now is the winter of our discontent
Made glorious summer by this son of Cabrera.
Yeah I mean it's kind of funny but the highest guy on my list after Dominguez isn't on the poll yet
(Marlowe BTW)
Read Me At: Twitter/Blog/MLBBonusBaby /Giants Nirvana
by Gobroks on Jan 12, 2012 11:49 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Haha! I clicked on the links, though, and didn’t see it. (Granted, I didn’t spend that much time looking.)
@legaleagle88
I'm not crazy. My mother had me tested.
Not to speak for Josh, but I suspect it will be showing up at Giants Nirvana in the fairly near future. He had a post their the other day talking about a difficulty he was having with Gillaspie and Dominguez which seemed to suggest that the “official” GN list would be soon forthcoming.
Cool, thanks! He is so knowledgeable, so I’m interested to see his list, given how different it is than ours.
@legaleagle88
I'm not crazy. My mother had me tested.
Thanks
Read Me At: Twitter/Blog/MLBBonusBaby /Giants Nirvana
by Gobroks on Jan 12, 2012 3:26 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Yeah it'll be GN hopefully in the next week or so
Read Me At: Twitter/Blog/MLBBonusBaby /Giants Nirvana
by Gobroks on Jan 12, 2012 3:25 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Where are we, 26?
Guess it makes sense I barely know anything about any of these.
I’ll sit it out unless someone wins me over with charisma and rock hard numbers.
My son, so I'm told. And this stalwart young lad (Hi, free f.p. #14!).
Gregorio
I’ve seen him listed in the Giants top twenty in many of the prospect lists I’ve seen, yet he hardly has gotten a mention at all here which is surprising. Is there a reason that no one is voting for him except for myself?
California Leaguers beware: Chris Gloor will strike you out faster than you can say "Quinnipiac", or he would have if he had pitched more than five innings this year before getting hurt...
by crazedcrustacean on Jan 11, 2012 10:30 PM PST reply actions
Gregorio
Though I’m a sucker for toolsy outfielders like Payne…just his advanced age is a red flag for me. If he swings the bat well in the Sally this year, though, he jumps way up for me.
Like Bochy and Correa’s arms, but don’t see how they’re ever anything more than middle relievers. I went with Gregorio because he seems like he has the best chance to eventually start.
What about Bochy tells you that he can’t be a closer?
Now is the winter of our discontent
Made glorious summer by this son of Cabrera.
I think anybody can be a closer, a quick look at the rather pedestrian minor league backgrounds of people like Andrew Bailey and Heath Bell and Brian Wilson should be enough to settle that argument. But, geez, how many relievers are we going to make the “he could be an impact closer” argument for?
And speaking of Bailey, I think in the various trades the A’s just made we got another good example of the relative trade value that closers really have. The A’s got multiple outstanding pieces for their starters, and a big bag of nothing for their All Star/ROY closer. Teams may be willing to spend money on their closers, but they don’t much seem to want to spend inventory on them. Really makes what the Pads were able to get for Mike Adams impressive.
I’m not saying he can’t, but I agree with Roger: There are about ten other guys in the system who project as middle relievers or — at best — a closer, and Bochy’s advanced age for his level doesn’t give me a ton of confidence that he’ll eventually be a high-leverage reliever in the big leagues. If he throws well again this season and they promote him to AA he becomes a viable prospect in my eyes. For now, though, I wanted to vote for the higher-ceiling guys. Same reason I’d voted for Galindo the past few rounds. At this point in the voting, I believe we should be looking at max-ceiling, best-case scenario guys.
I presume your question was rhetorical, but I’ll feign ignorance and make the argument for Hembree, Bochy, and Harrold. And as such, I have all 3 in my Top 25. To me, they really stood out last year. I have Dunnington higher than Harrold and Bochy, but then I believe he’ll be a starter.
I agree that you don’t want to spend a lot of money on a closer (either through FA or trade). OTOH, you want to have a good one on your team, and at least one more on the way in the minors – so that when your closer (let’s call him “Brian,” for example) starts to believe he deserves oodles and oodles of money, you can replace him with the next guy (and, perhaps, trade him to a team that doesn’t understand the value of closers).
Now is the winter of our discontent
Made glorious summer by this son of Cabrera.
But why do you need a “proven closer”™ or multiple ones in the minors. Wouldn’t you just want to take the best guy remaining in the bullpen? In our case Romo, who should probably see a bunch of time closing this year. To me, the ranking always comes down to who has carrying skills? I hear Hembree’s throwing 97-98 and I see carrying skills. Bochy had very good k rates and bb rates last year so I can at least see some potential for a future, though as I say above he’s trying to tread a very unusual development path.
Harrold’s stats weren’t impressive and I’ve never heard anything scouting-wise that suggests a real carrying skill so I don’t really see a reason to include him in a top 30. Which isn’t to say that he won’t necessarily be a major leaguer at some point, but I don’t see much reason to think he’d ever be a particularly valuable one.
I’ve seen several reports that Harrold has a very good slider. As Romo and a few other releievers have shown, that’s all you really need if you know what you’re doing. Of course, as you note, Harrold has yet to put up any stats that are close to Romo’s – but then only a handful of relievers in the history of the game can match Romo’s minor league stats. I’ve also read that Harrold has a well above-average FB. It will be interesting to see if he can leverage his good work in the AZ Fall League into good AA results this season. I guess I’m closer to you than I am to Lyle, because I have Harrold at #30 on my list. I think that he has a hgher floor than most of the other relievers in his grouping, but he also doesn’t seem to have the upside of a Dunnington, Marlowe, Law or Black.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Only a handful of relievers in history have had Romo’s slider either.
And speaking of comparing Romo and Harrold, I noticed Harrold walked as many batters last year as Romo has in the last three! And he did it in way less than half the innings!
I’m not claiming that Harrold is a sure thing, nor did I use the term “proven closer.” I simply mean that there were 3 guys in the system last year that gave an indication that they could be closers in the ML. Indication. And those indications were equal; Hembree clearly stood out. But if Wilson leaves and Hembree gets hit by a bus on his way to the stadium, I find it comforting to think that we have other pitchers in the system capable of closing.
I don’t subscribe to the mystery-theory of Being A Closer. OTOH, not every pitcher has the psychological makeup to pitch with the game immediately on the line (see some of the SF attempts over the last several years).
Romo’s my boy, so thanks for the kind words. He impressed me from the get-go, and I’m thrilled that he’s experiencing the kind of success that has come his way.
Now is the winter of our discontent
Made glorious summer by this son of Cabrera.
...indications were NOT equal.
sheesh; this computer is a terrible mind reader.
Now is the winter of our discontent
Made glorious summer by this son of Cabrera.
Edlefsen
By the way, I hadn’t seen Steve Edlefsen mentioned anywhere recently. Is he ineligible for the voting because he made his ML debut this summer, or is he a complete non-prospect? I seem to remember Baggs was high on him as a setup reliever because of his unusual delivery. I don’t have access to Baseball America or any other scouting web site…can someone straighten me out?
Dang
Every year people rank Dominguez too high, and it seems as though it’s happened again.
I don’t know that the 26th best prospect in the 25th or so best system is really “high.” I mean, he ain’t much of a prospect but I bet he’ll get his line in the Baseball Encyclopedia at some point, which is a good career ambition for most of the guys we’re looking at down in these parts.
It's a fair point
- in a mediocre system is not exactly high praise. But still, there are some players who didn’t make the top 25 who stand at least a chance of spending a full season on a major league roster. Those guys really should rank higher than a guy who might get a cup of coffee but has essentially no chance of anything more than that.
Stupid auto format
Rather than “1.”, that’s supposed to start with “#26”.
Gregorio, Mendoza or Rodriguez
Can’t decide…
Heck, at this point, you can make a strong case for Bochy, de Jesus or Correa…
"When the Giants call up a 21-year-old Venezuelan catcher who started the year in San Jose, was hitting well with poor plate discipline, but wasn't on Baseball America's preseason list of the organization's 30 best prospects, only good things can happen."
Congratulations, Hector!
Rodriguez?
I don’t have access to any scouting reports, but nothing he’s done statistically leads me to believe he’s every going to be good (though he’s still very very young). Isn’t he the guy that they gave a seven-figure bonus to a few years ago?
Give me the case for Mendoza, I want to learn more about him.
OK, my theory was obviously wrong. We should have jsut named Dominguez #25b and gone straight to #27. It would have saved us 24 hours.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Started out a lot closer than it is
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
For 27
I like Payne, Mendoza and Melonhead Jr.
21 year old speedy CF type versus 19 year old 5’10 RH starter with control, both of those in the NWL, versus Tommy John’d 23 year old RH RP with awesome ratios in the Sally.
Think I might join Roger with a Mendoza vote next, although I loves me some Shawn Payne.
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