It might be the time to trade Brian Wilson
by grabsumpinemeat on Sep 30, 2011 11:56 AM PDT
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Better a year too early then a year too late.
One of the reasons Bill Walsh was such a succesful coach and administrator was his ability to reconize when a player was wearing down and replacing that player even if it was a year before the breakdown. Don't get me wrong Brian Wilson has been a great Giant but he has pitched a hell of a lot of innings the last two years and I fear his body is breaking down.
Wilson was throwing 88 MPH near the end of the year and his body might not be as sound as we would like. When you look at the way the Giants are trying to lock up Lincecum and Cain to long term contracts in the near future you have to wonder how much they want to commit to Wilson in the future who has had injury problems not just in 2011 but in the past. There is a case that Casilla may be able to handle the closer role until Hembree, a young gun is ready to take over.
Trading Wilson for a good bat might be a answer to some of the Giants offensive problems. I know this may not be a popular view out there but that never stopped me. I think this may be the move to put the Giants back on top. I know Wilson is a popular player in SF but winning championships is more important. I like Wilson and he keeps things loose in the clubhouse but you have to put your feelings aside when it comes to business. He has given everything to the organization but part of being in charge at the top is reconizing when to cut the cord and make a change.
Sabean needs to take a long look at Wilson's future and make a tough decision. Do you keep him for next year and hope he stays healthy or do you roll the dice and trade him for the bat that might keep your starting pitchers happy and raise your total runs for a year from a putrid 570 to back over 650. These are the type of decisions that makes a differance from being a good administrator and a great one.
Go Giants !!
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i would be ok with this to be honest
but i don’t think they’ll do it. 99.999% chance he’s a giant next year.
by you'vejustbeenCAINED on Sep 30, 2011 12:04 PM PDT reply actions
I’ve always wished the Giants managed a little more like the Rays and cut bait when necessary to pull in young prospects. I know it’s risky to do, but seems like there’s such an upside to making the trade for the guy that’s about to be over the hill for a few up-and-coming. At the very least, it keeps it interesting, instead of watching the aging stars fade heavily in the post-steroid era.
There's always a handful of teams ready to overpay for a closer
Just a matter of those teams having something the Giants want.
I rarely tweet
"I ain't having it" - Buster Posey, hosing folks down
Like a shortstop over 35 years old with no power and diminishing range?
I'm thinking but nothing's happening.
I think the world has wised up to “sell the closer” as advocated in Moneyball.
Where have you gone, Steven Revetria? A bandwagon turns its lonely eyes to you.
"118 elements, and still no stanfurdium"- carp, paraphrased
"That one's on me."- Madison Bumgarner
by natteringnabob on Sep 30, 2011 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions
Who is going to overpay for a closer coming off an injury-plagued season?
If there was a time to trade Wilson, it was last year.
Two things
1) It may already be a year late with Wilson. At the very least, his value is going to be low right now with all the injury, velocity, and workload concerns.
2) Hitters who were worth 80 runs with the bat in 2011: no one. In 2010: no one. In 2009: no one, although Pujols was close. To be fair though, it would have to be the difference between what we have and the hitter. At SS, that’s still no one. At a COF spot, also no one.
But yes, if we could trade Wilson for a Jose Bautista that can play SS, we should consider doing so. At least kick the tires.
Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, future CF for the World Champion San Francisco Giants.
"And besides, if I wanted to participate in a mindless patriotic ritual where my voice isn’t really heard, I would vote." - Chris Marcil
Agreed
I mean there are a lot of good relievers that are FA’s this offseason and given that Wilson started and ended the year on the DL and his salary is going up, I don’t see a ton of interested teams
Twitter Blog (Infrequently Updated)
Writing about the MLB Draft at MLBBonusBaby
by Gobroks on Sep 30, 2011 12:23 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
WILSON 4 JOE NOBODY!
Where have you gone, Steven Revetria? A bandwagon turns its lonely eyes to you.
"118 elements, and still no stanfurdium"- carp, paraphrased
"That one's on me."- Madison Bumgarner
by natteringnabob on Sep 30, 2011 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions
umm i don’t remember anyone thinking to trade him last year.
There's a First for Everything:
Edgar Renteria, The First World Series MVP in Giants History.
I think you’re missing some very essential points here. The most crucial of which is the degree to which people overrate the "save" statistic and "closer mentality." In the Nathan case (even if they hadn’t added the other pitchers) they couldn’t possibly take advantage of that fact because Joe hadn’t been used as a closer and hadn’t piled up saves before the trade. That’s the primary reason I believe they could get a return on Wilson that would make trading him worthwhile. He’s got oodles and oodles of saves.
So: trading Wilson would be taking advantage of people’s overrating the save stat; trading Nathan was making the mistake of overrating the save stat on our part and not seeing that Nathan’s ‘03 peripherals were the raw materials of an effective closer.
by Roger on May 30, 2008 10:57 AM PDT up actions
Then trade Wilson.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
by Bhaakon on Dec 2, 2009 12:29 AM PST up actions
There was this also this whole Grant Brisbee blog post about trading Wilson last February.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
So...entirely missed my point
Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, future CF for the World Champion San Francisco Giants.
"And besides, if I wanted to participate in a mindless patriotic ritual where my voice isn’t really heard, I would vote." - Chris Marcil
Boston may be interested
If Papelbon leaves who is a free agent and just choked away a chance at the playoffs they have plenty of young players who may look good in a Giants uniform.
Money comes and money goes but CHAMPIONSHIPS live on forever .
by grabsumpinemeat on Sep 30, 2011 12:28 PM PDT reply actions
I imagine if Papelbon leaves, they'll just plug in Bard
Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, future CF for the World Champion San Francisco Giants.
"And besides, if I wanted to participate in a mindless patriotic ritual where my voice isn’t really heard, I would vote." - Chris Marcil
It seems to me that the premise of your opening line is negated by the paragraph that follows it, all of which details why it’s probably already a year too late.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
If Wilson rehabs right and get’s his velocity back ( he may of let up late in the year to protect the arm) he may look good to some teams this spring. Almost no one would of traded him after the 2010 season but if they are going to do it now is the time to do it. How many of you are prepared to break the bank to keep Wilson in a few years. Better to get something for him now when he still has some value and help the offfense then give him a big contract and flame out or lose him to free agentcy.
Money comes and money goes but CHAMPIONSHIPS live on forever .
by grabsumpinemeat on Sep 30, 2011 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions
No, but closers make a nice spoon full of sugar in a stars for prospects trade.
Allows the other team to save some face with casual fan by pointing at the shiny new closer, distracting from the fact that the deal was really about the prospects.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
Boston
All the reasons you gave in your second paragraph are the reasons why Boston won’t want to give up anything of value for Wilson. If the Giants are able to see that Wilson’s most valuable days are behind him, the Red Sox will be able to see that too. You can hope that a foolish GM will want to overpay in a trade for Wilson, but that GM won’t be Theo Epstein.
Thank you Edgar Renteria, for hitting the ball three feet higher.
There seems to be only one GM who would overpay in a trade for Wilson and teams can’t trade to themselves.
Still the father of two-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum.
"Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be." - John Wooden
by SFGuy on Oct 1, 2011 5:09 PM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
rec'd for accuracy
Giants baseball: So hollow, so empty.
"You don't go out with the pressure that you've gotta be perfect. It's more, 'I know I'm capable of throwing a shutout, so I should probably strive for that every time I go out. And if I don't, then I bite myself in the ass, not everybody else.' "--Tim Lincecum discussing how he deals with the shitty Giants offense.
by Sabean's_Folly on Oct 1, 2011 5:11 PM PDT up reply actions
Can anyone give some examples of bounties reaped by trading a closer?
I’m sure they’re out there, I just can’t think of any awesome trades that have been made by giving up your closer. Especially in an offseason deal.
at the end of the day it's all about kicking the tires
by duke_diligence on Sep 30, 2011 12:48 PM PDT reply actions
Yeah, but all they got was a busted Boof Bonser.
Right?
Right?
at the end of the day it's all about kicking the tires
by duke_diligence on Oct 3, 2011 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions
What a preposterous idea!
You should be burned at the stake.
George Siefert doesn’t get enough credit for replacing Joe Montana.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
As I was not yet 10 when it happened, I’ll cede the point. But I don’t do so with a great deal of satisfaction.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Sep 30, 2011 5:11 PM PDT up reply actions
Don’t get me wrong Brian Wilson has been a great Giant but he has pitched a hell of a lot of innings the last two years and I fear his body is breaking down. Wilson was throwing 88 MPH near the end of the year and his body might not be as sound as we would like…. [Wilson] has had injury problems not just in 2011 but in the past.
I’m sure other teams wouldn’t recognize those same things, though.
…raise your total runs for a year from a putrid 570 to back over 650.
Which suggests that we’re going to trade Wilson for an 8-win player?
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
For the record, I’m not against trading Wilson, but this may not be the time and we may never get the kind of booty in return that somewhere deep in our hearts we all want.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Sep 30, 2011 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Are you saying that we as fans overvalue our good players ?
/ pretty sure that never happens
I'm a Giants Fan, but I'll always be rooting for Matt Downs
Adopted Son:Dan Burkhart , Future Backup To Buster Posey.
Saving the money they would blow on Wilson maybe we could use it to get a decent bat. The Giants are so into the budget every dollar saved on Wilson could be used on the offense. They already have said that the budget will not go up this year( $125 mill )and by the time they sign all the pitchers there is almost nothing left for this shitty offense.
If the Giants want to hold on to their starting pitchers they better improve the offense. One hand washes the other.
Money comes and money goes but CHAMPIONSHIPS live on forever .
by grabsumpinemeat on Sep 30, 2011 2:38 PM PDT reply actions
Wilson set to make 8.5 mill in 2012 and then becomes a free agent.
Money comes and money goes but CHAMPIONSHIPS live on forever .
by grabsumpinemeat on Sep 30, 2011 2:46 PM PDT reply actions
Also if they let Affeldt and his $5 mill walk ( which they should) the Giants have almost 14 mill to spend on the bats for 2012.
Money comes and money goes but CHAMPIONSHIPS live on forever .
by grabsumpinemeat on Sep 30, 2011 3:12 PM PDT reply actions
With that money your offense might get to look something like
CF Crisp
SS Rollins
2B Sanchez
C Posey
3B Sandoval
1B Huff/Pill
LF Belt
RF Schierholtz
Your defense up the middle is set…. Posey, Rollins, Sanchez and Crisp
You get speed at the top of the line up… Crisp and Rollins …can you say Stolen Bases
You get speed at the bottom of the line up with Schierholtz
The Giants become a exciting line up to watch.
Just do it Sabean !!
Money comes and money goes but CHAMPIONSHIPS live on forever .
by grabsumpinemeat on Sep 30, 2011 4:04 PM PDT reply actions
Coco Crisp is basically Andres Torres with less power.
Adopted Giant: Mike Fontenot
He's like Grant, but fun size.
Occasionally, I tweet.
When did Torres steal 50 bases.
Crisp has a way better on base.
Crisp is perfect for AT&t
He does’nt need to hit for power just get on base.
Crisp is better player.
Money comes and money goes but CHAMPIONSHIPS live on forever .
by grabsumpinemeat on Sep 30, 2011 4:12 PM PDT up reply actions
Stealing bases isn't actually that valuable
And they’ve had basically the same OBP over the last three seasons. And Torres is likely better in CF than Crisp.
Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, future CF for the World Champion San Francisco Giants.
"And besides, if I wanted to participate in a mindless patriotic ritual where my voice isn’t really heard, I would vote." - Chris Marcil
Are you a relative of Torres. Open your eyes.
Money comes and money goes but CHAMPIONSHIPS live on forever .
by grabsumpinemeat on Sep 30, 2011 4:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Ironic
I actually looked up the numbers, you just made shit up mostly.
But I like your idea, pay more for something that is basically a carbon copy or worse of something we already have. Hmmmm, where have I seen that approach before and how has it worked out?
Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, future CF for the World Champion San Francisco Giants.
"And besides, if I wanted to participate in a mindless patriotic ritual where my voice isn’t really heard, I would vote." - Chris Marcil
LOL BUMLOOKERS
.312, .343, .343
.314, .342, .336
Also, I like how Crisp is thrown around as 31 years old, when his 32nd birthday is in a month.
Where have you gone, Steven Revetria? A bandwagon turns its lonely eyes to you.
"118 elements, and still no stanfurdium"- carp, paraphrased
"That one's on me."- Madison Bumgarner
by natteringnabob on Sep 30, 2011 5:00 PM PDT up reply actions
Factoring in defense I suspect Torres is actually the better player. That said, I’m pretty sure Crisp WILL be a Giant soon and I’m kinda ok with that as long as they dont give him a multi year deal, give him so much money it prevents re-signing Beltran, or non-tender Andres to make room for him. Two players almost exactly like Andres Torres isn’t a bad thing while we wait for Gary Brown.
/patiently waits for Sabean to sign Crisp for 3/25, explain the team didnt have room to address CF/leadoff AND keep Beltran and CF/leadoff was the more pressing concern, and then non-tenders Torres.
Thing A
I am still fascinated by . . .
. . . the idea that one bad season makes a man a terrible, useless player. Over the part of 2009 that Torres played, plus all of 2010, he was about as good on offense as any center fielder in the game, plus a Gold Glove caliber defender. But he has a punk 2011 (and no one besides him in all MLB had a bad year in 2011), and he’s on the trash heap.
That makes sense. If one looks at it The Giants Way®.
Professional baseball analyst since 1980.
Wir sind gewohnt, daß die Menschen verhöhnen was sie nicht verstehn.—Goethe
by owlcroft on Oct 1, 2011 8:16 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
In his defense, Torres has had substantilly more than one bad season.
His career path is bizarre enough to defy easy projection.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
Not since the meds.
This is his first bad season, even including the minors.
It is also a season in which offense MLB-wide was down by a nontrivial amount, and in which a number of men on his team with rather longer established careers had seriously off yeras, and in which he had a mental-midget manager who jerked him around badly.
Professional baseball analyst since 1980.
Wir sind gewohnt, daß die Menschen verhöhnen was sie nicht verstehn.—Goethe
You left out 2 DL stints totaling 39 missed games.
Still, we’re not talking about a big enough sample that we can just dismiss 398 PA this season. His 2011 season accounts for more than third of his post-resurgence MLB PA total. And while he hit like Todd Linden for few seasons in AAA, well, so did Todd Linden; those numbers need to come with a grain of salt to say the least.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
Perhaps, perhaps not; but . . .
. . . even if you include 2011—absolutely without qualification—to his post-med stats, they still look pretty decent. And are better than Coco Crisp’s career numbers, albeit not by much. I’d much rather bet on a man with one inconsistent year and upside at a very reasonable price than an expensive worse fielder with no anticipated upside.
Professional baseball analyst since 1980.
Wir sind gewohnt, daß die Menschen verhöhnen was sie nicht verstehn.—Goethe
I had been leaning to Crisp. Now you got me leaning to Andres again. Did Sabe have a strategy in trashing Torres?
Marvin Barrios, come on I'll show you your bedroom. Don't stay on the phone too long to Panama, please.
lifetime average
Torres .244 in 1264 AB’s including .222 in 2011
Crisp .275 in 3927 AB’s including .264 in 2011 with 49 SB’s
Torres is also a year older.
Crisp has 36 points on Torres lifetime average in 3 times the AB’s.
Torres had one good year while Crisp has been steady for 10 years.
I will take Crisp all day and twice on Sunday.
Money comes and money goes but CHAMPIONSHIPS live on forever .
by grabsumpinemeat on Sep 30, 2011 5:24 PM PDT reply actions
Not just batting average
STOLEN BASES TOO
SF Giants' record in the eleven-year twenty-first century/Pac Bell era: five MVPs, two CYA, one ROY, the two highest single-season OPS of all time (and two of the other top eight), the single-season and all-time HR records, two NL Pennants, and ... one World Championship
CRISP IS A YEAR YOUNGER
Youth movement is youthy!
Joe Nobody: The slugging speedster the Giants need, at an irrationally low price.
"118 elements, and still no stanfurdium"- carp, paraphrased
"That one's on me."- Madison Bumgarner
by natteringnabob on Oct 3, 2011 6:53 AM PDT up reply actions
Crispians unite!
Also, the Athletics will be glad to take Torres for league minimum after the Giants cut him loose.
Where have you gone, Steven Revetria? A bandwagon turns its lonely eyes to you.
"118 elements, and still no stanfurdium"- carp, paraphrased
"That one's on me."- Madison Bumgarner
by natteringnabob on Sep 30, 2011 9:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Several things there.
First, Torres lifetime numbers are irrelavant. The player he became after having his ADHD finally treated with meds is completely unrelated to the player he was before. Second, batting average is a terrible yardstick by which to try to gauge offense value; there are scads of other measures, and by most or all of those the 2009/2010 Torres is almost on a different planet from Crisp—probably 20 runs’s worth, being two team wins’ worth, which for any one player versus a supposedly credible other is a lot.
Professional baseball analyst since 1980.
Wir sind gewohnt, daß die Menschen verhöhnen was sie nicht verstehn.—Goethe
Make that 31 points on Torres lifetime ave.
Money comes and money goes but CHAMPIONSHIPS live on forever .
by grabsumpinemeat on Sep 30, 2011 5:26 PM PDT reply actions
Also Crisp is the perfect transitional player who might sign a one or two year contract until Brown is ready.
Money comes and money goes but CHAMPIONSHIPS live on forever .
by grabsumpinemeat on Sep 30, 2011 5:34 PM PDT reply actions
A career OBP of .330 (.314 this year) is not ‘getting on base’ by any stretch of the imagination.
Sundrendy!
Torres OBP is based on a lousy 1200 AB's
Money comes and money goes but CHAMPIONSHIPS live on forever .
by grabsumpinemeat on Sep 30, 2011 6:41 PM PDT up reply actions
That's 2-3 seasons
By the same logic, Buster Posey is pretty much nothing, Pablo Sandoval (1700 ABs) isn’t much, and Brandon Belt should just sit down forever. OBP also stabilizes at 350 PAs – for those keeping track at home, that’s 1/4 of Torres’ career PAs. If you only want to rely on players with a lot of plate appearances you can’t install any rookies or young players and that’s a pretty horrible way to run a team.
Torres is a pretty great player just from his defense. Whatever he produces with the bat is gravy, and he does have the potential to be a good hitter and has actualized that potential in the past. Chris Davis he’s not. And for all Crisp’s stolen bases, he only produced 2.9 BSR last year – that’s less than 1/3 of a win from his legs. Defense and offense are far more important; it’s great if a player runs well, but it’s not a prerequisite for success nor will it save an otherwise inept player (Manny Burriss, Darren Ford for examples close to home).
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Look putting Crisp and Rollins at the top of the line up will dramatically increase runs for the Giants. And for those who don’t believe in stolen bases consider this. AT&T park was built with speed in mind. Players at the top of the lineup who get on and are stolen base threats open up the right side of the infield, put pressure on the pitcher and catcher, get the pitcher in the stretch, and most imortantly take some of the concentration away from the pitcher who is trying to hold the runner close. Speed at the top and bottom of the lineup should be common place at a park like AT&T. I guarantee that if you put the above lineup I listed into effect with the Giants starting rotation the Giants would run away with the West next year.
I am done with this post. Goodluck.
Money comes and money goes but CHAMPIONSHIPS live on forever .
by grabsumpinemeat on Sep 30, 2011 6:39 PM PDT reply actions
if Crisp is such a star
why do teams keep cutting him loose, and why will he be cheap for the Giants?
Where have you gone, Steven Revetria? A bandwagon turns its lonely eyes to you.
"118 elements, and still no stanfurdium"- carp, paraphrased
"That one's on me."- Madison Bumgarner
by natteringnabob on Sep 30, 2011 9:50 PM PDT up reply actions
Stolen bases . . .
. . . are not a religious doctrine to be “believed in” or not “believed in”: they are a phenomenon whose value can credibly be calculated with reasonable accuracy, and just to break even takes a success rate somewhere, depending on exact methods and situations, 65% to more like 75%, and the value added above the break-even rate is minimal, even up to 100% (assuming tha attempts rate doesn’t change much). All those things mentioned go into the reckoning, because that reckoning is based on probable runs scored—derived from extensive real-world records—for the situations beore and after a steal attempt.
If you want a lineup that will run away with something, try:
Torres, cf
Belt, rf
Posey, c
Sandoval, 3b
(Willingham), lf
Huff, 1b
FSanchez, 2b
Fontenot, ss
Professional baseball analyst since 1980.
Wir sind gewohnt, daß die Menschen verhöhnen was sie nicht verstehn.—Goethe
It amuses me to pretend that "Umpine" is the name of a personl
Never mind, baseball gods. I don't love you any more. You've gone back to hating the Giants
Welcome to my new adopted Giant, Carlos Beltran. Well, actually, you're more like a foreign exchange student staying at my house for the summer. Regardless, win us a world series! ...ormaybe a game or two.
How is it that AT&T park was built to make stealing more important?
2010 World Series Champions!
Adopted 'nephew' to the ever avuncular and always awesome Jon Miller
by Johnny Disaster on Oct 3, 2011 7:41 AM PDT up reply actions
Shorter basepaths.
Once more, coming to you by proxy.
by howtheyscored on Oct 3, 2011 7:44 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Lax California attitudes
"He has maybe one of the best arms I've ever seen; he could be playing by the concession stand and he's not out of position." - Andy Skeels, talking about 3B Chris Dominguez.
You've seen how much the concessions charge, right?
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
by Bhaakon on Oct 3, 2011 3:37 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
rec but scared about spreading time around for Zobs
unless this plan doesn’t include us bringing back Kepp
by big logs Johnson on Sep 30, 2011 10:33 PM PDT up reply actions
Worst fanpost and subsequent thread ever?
Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, future CF for the World Champion San Francisco Giants.
"And besides, if I wanted to participate in a mindless patriotic ritual where my voice isn’t really heard, I would vote." - Chris Marcil
Stiff competition for that title round these parts
SF Giants' record in the eleven-year twenty-first century/Pac Bell era: five MVPs, two CYA, one ROY, the two highest single-season OPS of all time (and two of the other top eight), the single-season and all-time HR records, two NL Pennants, and ... one World Championship
This sounds like a challenge.
Ross on Halladay: "I’d tried everything against him…going the other way, taking pitches, trying to walk…and nothing worked. I’d never tried going up there and just trying to hit a home run off him."
My boy has mad hops
I rant on Twitter
I guess that’s why the Rays have all those World Series rings and Sabean won’t ever win one.
Buster Posey: still better than Eli and Stewart, even with a broken ankle.
Out of curiosity . . .
. . . how many rings would Sabean have were his payroll $40 million, and how many would the Rays have were their payroll around $120 million? One wonders . . . .
Professional baseball analyst since 1980.
Wir sind gewohnt, daß die Menschen verhöhnen was sie nicht verstehn.—Goethe
To be fair, Sabean won in 2010 with a payroll of “only” 98 million. And there’s plenty of GM’s with bigger payrolls who haven’t won anything, Theo and Cashman are considered two of the best, but nobody’s seen them working under payroll restrictions either.
Buster Posey: still better than Eli and Stewart, even with a broken ankle.
And Sabean came within eight outs of winning in 2002. I don’t remember the payroll, but it wasn’t extravagant.
Disfrute Los Gigantes every day at www.leftymalo.com
…er, that is, theoretically. Because there was no 2002 on the calendar, for some reason.
Disfrute Los Gigantes every day at www.leftymalo.com
78M, according to Cots
10th, behind the Yankees, Red Sox, Braves, Dbacks, Dodgers, Mariners, Mets, Rangers, and Indians.
However, the top payroll teams hadn’t yet lapped the rest of the league in 2002 (the Yankees were “only” spending 125M, the Red Sox $108M), so that $78M was much closer to the top spenders in 2002 than the Giants’ $96M payroll was in 2010.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
2010 payroll
If you look at what parts of the payroll actually contributing to winning the world series, it’s pretty amazing. Remove the salaries of Zito, Rowand and Derosa and you’re left with about a $60M payroll.
The thong is, it happened.
I often feel like Sabean would be a better GM with payroll restrictions – he seems to use FA money very poorly and if you took that away you’d still have a guy who can develop players and build a good FO which is what a low-payroll team absolutely needs.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Trading Wilson makes total sense from a tactical (winning games) point of view
Giants won’t do it for strategic (marketing) reasons
SF Giants' record in the eleven-year twenty-first century/Pac Bell era: five MVPs, two CYA, one ROY, the two highest single-season OPS of all time (and two of the other top eight), the single-season and all-time HR records, two NL Pennants, and ... one World Championship
Fear the Penguin Spandex, etc
SF Giants' record in the eleven-year twenty-first century/Pac Bell era: five MVPs, two CYA, one ROY, the two highest single-season OPS of all time (and two of the other top eight), the single-season and all-time HR records, two NL Pennants, and ... one World Championship
In this case tactics and strategy align. The moment his salary exceeds his perceived level of production is the moment the fan base will get tired of his act.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
by Bhaakon on Oct 1, 2011 8:08 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think that you may be thinking of informed fans like you and me.
I imagine that for the casual fan (in the Bay Area, in NoCal at large, and all over the world), Brian Wilson’s beard and hands-crossed sky-pointing are up there with Timmy’s hair, Huff’s thong, and Posey’s chiseled good looks as the visual icons of the 2010 World Champion Band of Misfits™.
SF Giants' record in the eleven-year twenty-first century/Pac Bell era: five MVPs, two CYA, one ROY, the two highest single-season OPS of all time (and two of the other top eight), the single-season and all-time HR records, two NL Pennants, and ... one World Championship
Just to clarify: I’ll always enjoy his act; it’s his baseball performance that I think we can live without.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
after nen, how many years did it take to get an actual closer?
nope
wilson aint going anywhere
he was hurt most of the season
he isnt breaking down…he was just broke
They found 3 within 18 months.
Worrell was perfectly fine in 2003, Hermanson turned into a serviceable closer, and Nathan clearly had the goods.
The problem wasn’t finding a decent closer, it was that Sabean and Alou repeatedly hitched their wagon to the wrong (and, Benitez’s case, more expensive) candidate.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
I was gonna say pretty much what you were gonna say so...
+1
Never mind, baseball gods. I don't love you any more. You've gone back to hating the Giants
Welcome to my new adopted Giant, Carlos Beltran. Well, actually, you're more like a foreign exchange student staying at my house for the summer. Regardless, win us a world series! ...ormaybe a game or two.
However, there’s a big difference between serviceable closer and top closer. If you think the 2010 post season would have gone the way it did if Worrell or Hermanson or someone of that ilk was closing, I would think you’re mistaken. If you think that Wilson will never regain that form again due to injury, by all means trade him, but if the Giants think he will physically get back to 100% again, and have designs on another ring, they really should keep him.
Buster Posey: still better than Eli and Stewart, even with a broken ankle.
there’s a big difference between serviceable closer and top closer
Isn’t this categorically false? The whole point of not overvaluing closers is that the difference between paying $15M a year for the best and just using any reliever is not substantial enough to justify the cost difference.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
The Giants had
three or four non-Wilson guys last year who I imagine would have made fine closers.
SF Giants' record in the eleven-year twenty-first century/Pac Bell era: five MVPs, two CYA, one ROY, the two highest single-season OPS of all time (and two of the other top eight), the single-season and all-time HR records, two NL Pennants, and ... one World Championship
Would they have won it all? Don’t forget that if Wilson goes, everybody moves up a rung. The eighth inning guy becomes the closer, the seventh inning guy becomes the eighth inning guy, and so on. If you need relief in the sixth or so, you’re talking about a risky proposition. I know stats guys downplay the pressure of closing, but I don’t think you can. Romo and Ramirez had pretty poor post seasons last year, and I seriously doubt they win without Wilson. Pressure affects relievers, don’t kid yourself. See Mike Adams today?
Buster Posey: still better than Eli and Stewart, even with a broken ankle.
Don’t forget that if Wilson goes, everybody moves up a rung.
Only if you’re doing it wrong. The point of trading the overpriced closer isn’t to ditch the best reliever in your bullpen, it’s to replace him with a pitcher (or combination of pitchers) of comparable value who is much cheaper because he doesn’t come with the “proven closer” mystique.
But, to me at least, the problem with paying for a proven closer isn’t even the annual salary, it’s being forced to commit to a him for 3+ seasons. Going long-term with a reliever just isn’t a wise investment. 10-12M a season for a 2 WAR player isn’t likely to sink a team with Giants-sized payroll, but getting stuck in a Nen or Benitez situation, where they’re paying that much for no or virtually no production, might.
See Mike Adams today?
See Robb Nen in in game 6? Trevor Hoffman or Joe Nathan in the postseason? Experience is no vaccine against small sample size shenanigans.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
On a purely baseball level all other things not considered I think Wilson could be traded. But that is not the case.
He is a character, an I con, he brings fans to the game, people like to be associated
with his antics, so much so, that the giants probably sold several million dollars worth
of souvineers based on Wilson’s personality and his antics. He is a popular player,
and he does sell seats and all the amenities that go along with packed houses. I
also do not remember any outing, even at the end of the year when he was playing
hurt, when his fastball only topped out at 88. Maybe we should look at Jonathan
Sanchez as a closer. Of course Sanchez cannot grow much of a beard.
I con, you con, we all con for Wilson.
2010 World Series Champions!
Adopted 'nephew' to the ever avuncular and always awesome Jon Miller
by Johnny Disaster on Oct 3, 2011 7:43 AM PDT up reply actions
Fear the Boricua!
"He has maybe one of the best arms I've ever seen; he could be playing by the concession stand and he's not out of position." - Andy Skeels, talking about 3B Chris Dominguez.
I would challenge that I am the biggest Wilson fan at McC...
…and I would trade him for a Nyjer Morgan type. Or a Yonder Alonzo type.
When I say “Morgan type”, I mean, somebody with plus talent, that has had a down year, and fallen out of favor with the org, so is young and cheap.
When I say “Alonzo type”, I mean somebody who is young and talented and always highly regarded, who has been blocked in the org.
Also: Wilson’s value will go up as soon as he shaves off his beard.
COMIN' ATCHA, FROM ANCHORAGE, ALASKA!
Fathaigh go mbuaimid!
Proud adoptive Father of Joe Panik. 2011 NWL MVP .
Job 1:14-15
wilson
been saying it for a year……could be too late..anyway, romo’s ready…….
What is Romo's salary/contract situation?
I’m thinking we would be able to get more value for Romo than Wilson this offseason.
Absolutely
you can get more for Romo. Is it worth McCovey Chronicles spontaneously combusting though?
I see what you mean.
But if the Giants get good return for Romo, especially given his tendency to throw that slider so often, and risking injury,
many McCoven would be pleased with Sabean.
The problem with trading Romo is that he isn’t making anything. It will be very, very hard to replace his production without adding payroll.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
He’ll start making some in a couple of months. The other problem is no team wants to give up SS or CF the 2 most important defensive positions on the field. A lot of other teams have the same holes as us. The third hole, the big power bat, is the hardest of all to fill. Belt and Romo being traded would take a big bite out of us, and it wouldn’t bring a McClutchen back either.
It is my opinion that with Torres, the Giants don’t have a hole in CF.
And to call a “power bat” a hole is a nebulous, and not entirely accurate characterization, at least to me. Holes are vacant spots on the diamond: as long as the players who occupy those slots are productive, it doesn’t matter what particular skill sets those players possess.
I see security at C, 3B, 2B, CF, and LF (Belt), with a very difficult situation in Huff at 1B (I would stick with the old man for the upcoming season, but that is just one boy’s opinion), an open question on Schierholtz’s quality as a RF for a playoff contender, and dreck at SS.
What should the Giants do about that hole? I dunno; I don’t have much time to rosterbate as much as I used to.
A good summary.
I am inclined to think that Fontenot is acceptable at SS—certainly far from dreck. I also think that Belt could play a satisfactory RF, so that the OF-corner hole could be filled by a mediocre-fielding big bat (such as Willingham). But all in all, we are better covered than the alarmists seem to feel. (I, too, think Schierholtz’s quality as a RF for a playoff contender is at best dubious.)
Professional baseball analyst since 1980.
Wir sind gewohnt, daß die Menschen verhöhnen was sie nicht verstehn.—Goethe
Reliever production is reliever production.
No matter how fantastically amazing, every reliever is very limited in the amount of “production” he can provide.
Romo’s had a spectacular stretch, and by the law of averages is probably due to drop by some non-inconsequential degree in effectiveness, so if the Giants had the callow attitude toward homegrown players a la the Rays, Marlins, or Padres, he would likely soon be shipped away; something like the Padres’ trade for Cameron Maybin would be the model.
Production is production.
Romo was worth 2.2 WAR last season. If you think you can replace that for whatever his arbitration award will be, feel free to try.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
1st arb year and will probably make ~2M (guess)
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