minor lines, 9/14/11

by steve S on Sep 14, 2011 11:47 PM PDT in They Might Be Giants

Wednesday playoff highlight from the Giants' farm: Francisco Peguero reached base four times.

AA: Richmond lost to New Hampshire 7-5
(splitting the first two games of the best-of-five series at New Hampshire)

Richmond: RF Francisco Peguero: 3 for 4, HBP, SO
Richmond: 2B Charlie Culberson: 3 for 5, GiDP
Richmond: LF Wendell Fairley: 2 for 3, HBP, SO
New Hampshire: CF Colby Rasmus: 2 for 3, BB, SO

Richmond: SP Daryl Maday: 5.0 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 6 K--1 HB, 1 WP
New Hampshire: SP Nestor Molina: 5.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K--1 HB, 1 WP

With three hits each, Peguero and Culberson combined for six of the Flying Squirrels' eleven hits (all singles). Fairley also had a multi-hit game. Both Culberson and Fairley have .400 AVGs this post-season. The Blue Jays' rehabbing Rasmus, was one of three Fisher Cats with multiple hits, but his post-season AVG is just .200. Even with his three years of MLB experience, he is still younger than about half the players on Richmond's roster.

Maday was not as effective in his second post-season start, allowing 3 ER in the 2nd inning and another ER in the 5th inning. Molina appears to have enjoyed a breakout season this year. After pitching primarily in relief prior to this year, he pitched primarily as a starter this year, posting a 2.21 ERA in 130.1 IP overall. He was even better after his promotion to the Eastern League where in five starts he had 12 H, 2 BB, 1 ER and 33 K in 22.0 IP. That success continued through to this start.

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really, colby rasmus?

if i were playing for fresno, I’d be pretty pissed.

Adoptive father of 18th round draft pick and future ace, BRANDON ALLEN

by Nnamdi Asomugha on Sep 15, 2011 12:03 AM PDT reply actions

Wednesday playoff highlight from the Giants’ farm: Francisco Peguero reached base four times.

Come again?

by Grant Brisbee on Sep 15, 2011 1:23 AM PDT reply actions

I don’t get the high ranking of him…Someone has to explain it to me. I guess the fact that he can maintain such high BABIP % and good K rates does say something about him being a good hitter…And I suppose the Panda minus power isn’t the worst thing to have. But I’m honestly curious about why he is ranked so high. I’m more excited about Ehire, but then again I don’t know much about the prospects.

by Artimus Clyde on Sep 15, 2011 1:44 AM PDT up reply actions

I don't get it either

And he’s not the Panda minus power, he’s the Panda minus power and walks. At two years younger than Pablo right now, he’s got a walk rate less than half what Sandoval posted in AA. Sandoval’s lowest walk rate was at San Jose in 2007 (3.8%). Peguero’s had three separate stops of 250+ PAs with a walk rate lower than that. Peguero’s K rate is currently the lowest he’s ever had at 15.2%, but that is just a bit lower than Pablo’s worst K rate, which was 15.7% in 2006, his first year in pro ball in the US.

It’s possible Peguero has a similar contact skill, but his plate discipline is demonstrably worse than a guy who is notorious for chasing pitches. His walk rates are worse, his K rates are worse, which makes his K/BB the stuff of horror. But his career minor league BABIP is something like .370, so his numbers don’t look too bad, particularly if you’re focused on the batting average. Peguero does have a lot more speed than Pablo, but it doesn’t look like he’ll get to use it much if he can’t get on base, and despite the consistently high BABIPs his OBPs are just good because he doesn’t walk. The guy needs a .330 average to OBP .360.

Ehire’s had some BABIP luck too, but his walk rates have been very good throughout his minor league career, and at the very least he has the tools to be a plus defensive shortstop, with some people saying he’s there already. His ISO also took a serious jump this season. I don’t think he’ll ever hit, but IMO there’s no doubt he’s a better prospect than Peguero.

Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)

by quincy0191 on Sep 15, 2011 2:13 AM PDT up reply actions

Yeah the lack of walks is obviously the troublesome thing, but its not like he even has any kind of power to make you believe it will increase someday with pitchers being more careful. It just doesn’t seem good at all for a corner outfielder. I think Ehire can be a fairly decent bat for SS. My only question on him is whether or not he is a plus defender.

by Artimus Clyde on Sep 15, 2011 2:53 AM PDT up reply actions

You have to respect a career .370 BABIP, though. Plus you get solid defense, great speed, occasional flashes of power.

That said, I still think he’s a menace. He’s the sort of player who will get hundreds of at-bats for the big-league team no matter how bad his OBP is.

by Evan on Sep 15, 2011 6:45 AM PDT up reply actions

Don't you tell me what I have to respect

Especially when it’s a BABIP earned mostly in the low minors against bad defenses.

Gigante. Campeón. Pumpkin. Andrés Torres.
Dursh nerf darsh narf. Poop.
He's really good! He's an injury risk! But he's really good! But he'll be expensive! But he's really good! But he's an injury risk!

by GiantPain on Sep 15, 2011 7:14 AM PDT up reply actions

Yeah, Roger’s post below helps illustrate how much you have to discount minor-league BABIPs. Still, ground-ball artists like Jeter and Ichiro and Bourn and Luis Castillo are able to keep their BABIPs in the .330-.350 range.

by Evan on Sep 15, 2011 7:31 AM PDT up reply actions

Yeah, he’s definitely looking like a Dominican Franceour with less power. If he comes up and hits .300 in an extended rookie stay he’s going to guarantee himself a 10 year career.

MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!

by Roger on Sep 15, 2011 7:41 AM PDT up reply actions

That's true

Even if he hits .272 with a .299 OBP.

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Sep 15, 2011 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions

Without rehashing something that’s well done hash at this point, I do want to say that I think you sometimes make the mistake of viewing minor league BABIP’s thru a major league lens. while it’s certainly possible for minor leaguers to get hit lucky, that isn’t necessarily what a high BABIP for prospects indicates: it could be showing an hit tool that is more advanced than the competition.

I’d be willing to say that all really outstanding prospects have very high BABIPs. Just to pick a few: Mike Trout’s career BABIP is about .400, Brandon Belt’s looks to be in the neighborhood of .390, Buster Posey’s was .386 in 200 PA in AAA last year. That’s not to say that luck isn’t playing its part in all those numbers, but it is to say that you can’t draw the same conclusions with the same degree of firmness looking at minor league BABIP numbers that you could for a major leaguer.

MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!

by Roger on Sep 15, 2011 6:58 AM PDT up reply actions

Yeah, but if he’s entirely dependent upon it being .370 to be a worthwhile player, then we have a problem because, like all those names you listed, when he gets to the majors, that BABIP will regress to major league norms. Then you have a guy who is batting .270/.295/.400. That essentially turns him into Rowand.

by GuyWhiteyCorngood on Sep 15, 2011 8:26 AM PDT up reply actions

Well, there are I guess three things to say to that: 1) even his supporters recognize that he’ll need to make adjustments; nobody in AA is a finished product; 2) it really doesn’t “essentially turn him into Rowand”; the last two years Rowand was a .230/.275/.360 hitter and that extra .060 or so is important; and 3) it’s worth noting that even with his .621 OPS, .270 wOBA, and 66 wRC+ this year, Aarond Rowand is still the 8th highest position player on our team this year in terms of Fangraphs WAR.

MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!

by Roger on Sep 15, 2011 8:44 AM PDT up reply actions

Rowand being that high on our team list is more about a bad team and the stupid amount of playing time he got, UZR liking his defense this year, and his baserunning going from negative to positive. His wRC+ dropped by seven points but he gained 0.4 WAR year-over-year.

Peguero does need to make adjustments, but in several years now he’s shown no inclination to do so, unless you think the SJ stint this year was real. And at 23 in AA, he’s kind of running out of time.

Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)

by quincy0191 on Sep 15, 2011 12:06 PM PDT up reply actions

Well next year he’ll bein the majors so I guess he can just go ahead and make his adjustments there.

MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!

by Roger on Sep 15, 2011 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions

Scout love + TOOLS

Ask me about my blog.

by xanthan on Sep 15, 2011 6:33 AM PDT up reply actions

instead of Panda without the power I think of him as Nate with more speed

by joe t on Sep 15, 2011 7:02 AM PDT up reply actions

Interesting. I like it.

@legaleagle88
Giants Baseball: Why Not?
I thought Nate Schierholtz was cool before it was cool to think Nate Schierholtz was cool.

by kdl on Sep 15, 2011 7:03 AM PDT up reply actions

I think of him as Nate with more speed

and hair!

Ask me about my blog.

by xanthan on Sep 15, 2011 7:23 AM PDT up reply actions

In a very weird sort of way, the guy he sort of reminds me of is Fred Lewis — and its a very weird sort of way, because obviously there’s a couple major differences in skillset there. But Fred was a prospet who was always old for his level (because of his two sport background), whose supporters always felt he was going to “get it” and suddenly take large steps in his development progression, and his detractors always said he was going to get shown up at higher levels and wash out.

And instead, he never really did either. He always kind of was the player that his various physical tools allowed him to be and never seemed to get either a lot better or a lot worse as he climbed the ladder. Sure he had that .875 OPS year in San Jose, but by and large he was mostly always the same guy and he never progressed beyond that.

And I can see that happening with Peguero, too, that he’ll always be this .300/.330/.430 guy. Of course, Freddie did drop .020 in batting average between his minor league career and major league, and if that happened to Peguero it would be a big deal, making him a .280/.310/.410 guy, but one thing that’s worth remembering with Pegs is that he does offer a plus defensive CF skillset as well as RF. I think we’ve forgotten that with Brown around, but if he can manage to smack his way to a .730 or so OPS along with plus CF defense, there’s a major league value to be had there. Especially in the current climate where the average OBP is only around, what .325 – .330?

MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!

by Roger on Sep 15, 2011 8:26 AM PDT up reply actions

That's a key point

IMO, if Pegs is going to have a prolonged career as a starter in the pros it will have to be as a CF. The Giants have a bunch of those types working their way through the system right now, so it looks likely to me that he’ll spend most of his time with other teams if he lasts more than 5 years as a major leaguer, but he does have a brief window of opportunity in the next 11 months to stake his claim before all of the other guys start catching up to him.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.

by Fla-Giant on Sep 15, 2011 9:53 AM PDT up reply actions

Nate was younger relative to his league, walked more, struck out less, hit for more power, and didn’t have BABIPs nearly as high inflating his stats. I don’t see it.

Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)

by quincy0191 on Sep 15, 2011 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions

…and probably less washboard abs.

by kaliber on Sep 15, 2011 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions

Don't worry

He didn’t draw a walk; he had three hits and, even grittier, a HBP!

by taliesin on Sep 15, 2011 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions

Joe Ritzo's SJ season review

Joe Ritzo has an interesting article up where he reviews the SJ Giants 2011 season. He includes his memories of the top 10 games of the season. Here’s the link:
http://sanjose.giants.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110914&content_id=24708666&vkey=news_t476&fext=.jsp&sid=t476

8. August 25 vs. Stockton (11-5 win): Gary Brown had an outstanding year with the Giants, but his best performance may have come on this night in a convincing win over the Ports. The All-Star finishes 5-for-5 with two doubles, two home runs, five runs scored and four RBI’s to delight the hometown crowd.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.

by Fla-Giant on Sep 15, 2011 9:57 AM PDT reply actions

I was at that game, and it was amazing.

Also, I thought Joe’s review was great. Great season!

@legaleagle88
Giants Baseball: Why Not?
I thought Nate Schierholtz was cool before it was cool to think Nate Schierholtz was cool.

by kdl on Sep 15, 2011 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions

You were at that game? What are the chances of that happening?

by GuyWhiteyCorngood on Sep 15, 2011 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions

For me to get to SJ after work on a Thursday is pretty crazy. I mostly went because Pat the Bat was doing a rehab start that night. The Brown 5-5 thing was just a bonus.

@legaleagle88
Giants Baseball: Why Not?
I thought Nate Schierholtz was cool before it was cool to think Nate Schierholtz was cool.

by kdl on Sep 15, 2011 1:37 PM PDT up reply actions